2025 IPO of the Year: Best Listings, Performance, and Lessons for Investors
The IPO market has traditionally been viewed as a showcase of economic optimism, a place where ambitious startups transform into public giants, and astute investors have the opportunity to significantly multiply their capital. However, 2025 shattered this illusion, with investors, particularly in the Russian market, experiencing a period of harsh awakening. Instead of the anticipated boom in listings, there was an almost complete lull, and the few public offerings resulted more in disappointment and losses than the long-awaited profits. This was the year when the euphoria of easy money was replaced by the bitter reality of risk reassessment.
While global markets, particularly in the U.S., continued to see the emergence of bright tech IPO stars, the Russian market sank into a state aptly described as stagnation. In this in-depth analysis, we will explore the fundamental reasons behind this contrast, examine key cases from 2025, derive practical lessons from the mistakes made, and, most importantly, formulate actionable strategies for investors who still believe in the long-term potential of initial public offerings.
Market Stagnation: Why the Flow of IPOs Dried Up in Russia
The primary and overarching characteristic of the Russian IPO market in 2025 was "stagnation." Over the first three quarters, only one company — the fintech platform JetLend — dared to go public on the Moscow Exchange, and unfortunately, this listing turned out to be more of a warning than a success story. This almost negligible result is particularly disheartening given the excitement of 2023-2024, when investors were lining up for shares of dozens of new issuers. The Moscow Exchange IPO Index (MIPO), serving as a barometer of sentiment in this segment, clearly indicated that most companies that debuted on the exchange in the last two years are trading below their offering price, resulting in losses for investors' portfolios.
This stagnation did not occur out of thin air. It was the result of several powerful negative factors coinciding. First, the stringent monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and high key interest rates made debt instruments, such as bonds and deposits, extremely attractive. Why risk the volatile stock market when one could secure guaranteed double-digit returns with virtually no risk? Second, overall economic uncertainty and ongoing sanctions pressure forced both business owners and investors to take a wait-and-see approach. Companies postponed costly and complex IPO projects, focusing instead on maintaining operational resilience.
In contrast, the global market, while not immune to general nervousness, appeared significantly more vibrant. In the U.S., investors demonstrated high demand for companies in sectors shaping the future, particularly those associated with artificial intelligence and financial technology. The IPOs of AI infrastructure provider CoreWeave Inc. and stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group showcased that capital is willing to flow towards entities with a clear growth narrative, strong technologies, and global ambitions. This contrast highlighted a key issue in the Russian market: a lack of not just new names, but of breakthrough and scalable business models capable of capturing investor interest in a highly competitive environment for their funds.
Key Listings: Stories of Success and Failure
Russian Case: A Cold Shower from JetLend
The IPO of the crowdfunding platform JetLend served as a litmus test for the condition of the Russian IPO market. On paper, everything looked attractive: a company in a promising fintech sector, an expanding customer base, a clear business model. However, the result was dismal. Following the start of trading, share prices plummeted and failed to recover to the offering price in the ensuing months, trapping thousands of retail investors who had bought into the success story at a loss.
The key reason for this failure, according to most analysts, was an inadequately inflated valuation. Underwriters and the company itself valued the business as if all future successes had already been achieved. The market, however, judged otherwise. Investors, having learned from the bitter experiences of previous unprofitable IPOs, were not prepared to pay a premium for expectations. Moreover, speculative support evaporated completely: the "flipping" strategy (quickly selling shares on the first day) ceased to work, depriving IPOs of the backing of short-term players. The JetLend case vividly illustrated that the era when any story could be sold to the market at any price is irrevocably over.
Global Stars: Lessons from CoreWeave and Circle
While the Russian market remained in suspended animation, several new stars emerged in the U.S. The IPO of CoreWeave, a company providing cloud infrastructure for artificial intelligence models, became one of the year's headline events. Unlike many "hype" stories, CoreWeave's success was based on solid fundamentals: the company is a key partner of NVIDIA and serves an exponentially growing demand for computing power. Investors were buying not promises, but a stake in a real, rapidly growing business, and the market rewarded them with triple-digit price increases.
Another example is Circle Internet Group, the issuer of the world's second-largest stablecoin, USDC. Their public offering was also a success. The company presented the market with a transparent and auditable business model addressing a specific issue — creating a bridge between traditional finance and the world of digital assets. Investors appreciated both the stability of their business processes and the tremendous growth potential of the entire crypto market.
These two cases demonstrate exactly what today's global investors are looking for: not just growth, but technological leadership, scalable business models, and real problem-solving capabilities.
Anatomy of Losses: Why IPO Returns Have Disappeared
The statistics of the past two years are unforgiving: most Russian IPOs resulted in losses for their initial investors. The phenomenon of "IPO pop" — explosive price growth on the first day of trading — which was almost the norm in 2021, has nearly disappeared. The average return on the first day approached zero, and over a three- to six-month horizon, many securities showed double-digit declines.
The fundamental reason for this lies in a shift in market psychology. Previously dominated by fear of missing out (FOMO), the market is now gripped by fear of losing money. Investors have become far more sober in their evaluations. Elevated multiples that were once overlooked in exchange for a "pretty story" now serve as red flags. Any discrepancy between stated ambitions and actual financial performance is immediately punished by the market.
Another important factor is the structure of demand. The huge influx of retail investors, often lacking sufficient expertise to evaluate complex businesses, in previous years created excessive, emotional demand. In 2025, many of these investors, having incurred losses, either exited the market or became significantly more cautious. Meanwhile, institutional investors, now playing a crucial role, approach analysis much more stringently, preventing "bubbles" from forming at the outset.
Lessons for Survival: How Not to Fall Victim to IPOs
Imagine an investor, let's call him Maxim. In 2023, succumbing to widespread excitement, he participated in several IPOs and made a 50% profit on one of them in just a couple of days. In 2025, seeing the IPO of a new "promising" company, he decided to replicate his success, investing a more substantial amount. The result — a 30% loss in the first three months. What did Maxim do wrong? He acted out of habit, ignoring the fact that the rules of the game had fundamentally changed.
The bitter experiences of recent years have taught the market several invaluable lessons:
Conduct your own due diligence. Never make investment decisions based solely on promotional materials and enthusiastic media coverage. Your primary task is to look "under the hood" of the business. Review the prospectus, paying special attention to the "Risk Factors" section. Analyze financial statements from the past 3-5 years. Who are the main competitors? What is the uniqueness of the product? Answers to these questions are far more crucial than analysts' forecasts.
Be skeptical about valuations. The shiniest company can become a terrible investment if purchased at too high a price. Learn to use comparative multiples (P/E, P/S, EV/EBITDA). Compare the company's valuation with that of its public counterparts. If it is significantly higher, you must clearly understand how the company intends to justify such a premium. Perhaps through revolutionary technology or explosive growth. Or maybe it’s just inflated seller expectations.
Keep an eye on the calendar. The end date of the lock-up period (usually 180 days post-IPO) is a moment of truth. On this day, major shareholders, funds, and top management gain the right to sell their shares. Anticipation of this event often places downward pressure on stock prices. For a savvy investor, this presents an opportunity: either to secure profits ahead of potential waves of selling or conversely, to buy shares at lower prices from panicking sellers.
Strategy Matrix: Choosing Your Path in the IPO Market
The days of profiting simply by applying for every IPO indiscriminately are irrevocably over. Today’s market requires a thoughtful choice of strategy that aligns with your risk profile and investment horizon.
For conservative investors, whose primary goal is capital preservation and gradual growth, direct participation in IPOs today carries excessive risks. An optimal alternative could be the "Post-Lock-up" strategy. This involves refraining from participating in the IPO itself and instead monitoring a company's shares 6-9 months after the event. By this time, initial euphoria will have faded, prices will have stabilized, and the company will have released one or two quarterly reports as a public entity. This allows for a well-informed decision based on real data rather than promises.
For moderate investors willing to accept calculated risks for higher returns, the classic "Buy and Hold" strategy is suitable. This involves careful selection of companies with robust business models and long-term growth potential. An investor following this strategy must be prepared for possible downturns and not panic over short-term volatility. Their horizon is years, not days or months.
Finally, for aggressive investors or speculators who previously profited from the “Flip-IPO” strategy, challenging times are ahead. In the current Russian market, this strategy is almost nonexistent due to a lack of growth in the initial days. Attempting to catch short-term rebounds is akin to walking through a minefield. A more thoughtful approach for this category could involve working with stocks after the IPO based on strong news or financial reporting, where volatility remains high but is more predictable.
Who’s Next? A Look Ahead to the Future of Russian IPOs
Despite the current pessimism, life in the market has not come to a halt. New potential offerings are being discussed behind closed doors and at conferences, slated for late 2025 or 2026. Among the most likely candidates are one of the country's largest tabletop game publishers, Hobby World, and companies associated with the state corporation Dom.RF.
The revival of the IPO market will be directly dependent on the macroeconomic environment. Key triggers could include the start of a cycle of lowering the key interest rate, which would rekindle investors' interest in riskier assets, and the emergence of genuinely large, high-quality issuers from non-resource sectors such as IT, biotechnology, and consumer goods.
The year 2025 has been a painful yet necessary growth phase for the IPO market. It has taught investors to be more discerning and companies to be more modest in their valuations. Perhaps this lull will serve as the foundation for a new, healthier, and more sustainable growth cycle in the future.
