On Tuesday, October 28, 2025, investors will be closely monitoring consumer confidence indices in Germany and the United States, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and earnings reports from major banks and fintech companies, including Sberbank, HSBC, Visa, and PayPal.
Tuesday promises a packed agenda for financial markets. The third day of the ASEAN Summit continues in Malaysia, where global leaders discuss economic integration, while trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are taking place on the sidelines, aimed at reducing mutual tensions. Simultaneously, investors are preparing for the release of several important consumer confidence economic indicators: in the morning, Germany will publish the latest consumer sentiment data, while in the evening, the U.S. economic confidence figures will be released. European exchanges will react to the morning corporate earnings reports from several large companies, while the U.S. market will focus on a series of significant quarterly results in the afternoon. Investors will be tasked with correlating macroeconomic signals with corporate reports to assess the overall economic picture and sentiments ahead of the midweek.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- All day — Turkey: Public holiday, markets are closed.
- All day — Malaysia: 3rd day of the ASEAN summit (regional economic integration discussed; U.S.-China trade negotiations are ongoing).
- 10:00 — Germany: GfK Consumer Confidence Index (November).
- 16:00 — U.S.: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (August).
- 17:00 — U.S.: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (October) and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October).
- 23:30 — U.S.: Weekly oil inventories (API).
Europe: GfK Consumer Confidence Index
- Early in the morning, the GfK consumer sentiment index for Germany will be released for November. A slight change in the index is anticipated compared to the previous month, indicating continued consumer caution ahead of the holiday spending season. This indicator reflects the level of confidence among the German population in the economy, and its dynamics could affect retail sales and consumption outlooks in the Eurozone.
U.S.: Housing Market and Confidence Indices
- In the afternoon, the focus will shift to U.S. economic data. At 16:00 MSK, the August S&P/Case-Shiller index will be released, showing changes in home prices in major U.S. cities. Trends in the housing market will illustrate the impact of high mortgage rates on housing costs and household wealth.
- At 17:00 MSK, two indicators will characterize the confidence in the U.S. economy. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October will reflect American households' confidence in the current economic situation and the labor market. Simultaneously, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October will provide insights into the industrial sector's status in the Mid-Atlantic region. Together, these indicators will offer insights into how confidently consumers and businesses feel at the beginning of Q4.
Oil: API Oil Inventories
- Late in the evening, market participants will be watching for statistics from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on U.S. commercial hydrocarbon inventories. The API report, released at 23:30 MSK, serves as a preliminary benchmark ahead of the official EIA publication on Wednesday. A sharp change in inventory levels (e.g., a significant decline or increase) can trigger oil price volatility, which is crucial for both commodity markets and the currencies of oil-exporting countries.
Banking Sector: Sberbank, VTB, and HSBC
- Major Russian banks are set to report their financial results, providing a snapshot of the state of the Russian banking system. Sberbank will publish its IFRS report for the first nine months of 2025, while VTB will report for the third quarter. Investors will analyze trends in net income, interest income, and lending volumes to understand how the changing key interest rate and economic conditions are reflected in the banking sector.
- On the global stage, one of the leading international banks, HSBC (UK), will also report its results for the third quarter. With its extensive presence in Asia and other regions, HSBC's figures will provide insights into global banking industry trends — from interest margin dynamics amid rising rates to the volume of reserves for potential loan losses.
Fintech and Digital Payments: PayPal and Visa
- The quarterly results of fintech industry leaders will be in the spotlight. PayPal (U.S.) will present its results amid fierce competition in the digital wallet and fintech services market. Visa (U.S.), the world's largest payment system, will also report for the quarter; investors expect to see transaction volume growth driven by the recovery of international tourism and consumer activity. The management's comments from both companies regarding future growth plans, the implementation of new technologies, and competition in the digital payments segment will be crucial.
Transport and Logistics: UPS
- One of the benchmarks for assessing global business activity will be the earnings report of logistics giant United Parcel Service (UPS, U.S.) for the third quarter. UPS figures are traditionally seen as a barometer for global trade: the dynamics of freight volumes, especially in the express delivery and online retail segment, will shed light on the state of global supply chains. UPS management's forecasts regarding demand for delivery services through the end of the year will provide investors with insights into the sustainability of the global economic recovery ahead of the holiday season.
Healthcare: UnitedHealth Group
- In the healthcare sector, market attention will be drawn to the report from UnitedHealth Group (U.S.) — the largest American company in the healthcare insurance sphere. UnitedHealth’s results will reflect how the customer base (insured individuals) grew and how medical expenses changed in the past quarter. Investors will also be looking for management forecasts regarding the impact of healthcare legislative initiatives and drug prices on future financial performance. A successful report from UnitedHealth could bolster sentiments in the broader healthcare and insurance sector.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: In Europe, a series of corporate results will be released on October 28, setting the tone for trading. Notable reports include those from large companies like HSBC (UK) and Novartis (Switzerland). These publications, along with the GfK index data and expectations regarding central bank decisions, will influence investor sentiments in the region. Positive surprises in European companies’ earnings might strengthen the Euro Stoxx 50, while disappointments or weak macro statistics could heighten caution in trading.
- Nikkei 225: In Japan, the third-quarter earnings reporting season for 2025 continues. Several industrial conglomerates, technology manufacturers, and automotive companies are reporting results reflecting domestic demand and export conditions. These results are impacting the Nikkei 225 index with regard to the yen's exchange rate and the state of external markets. Strong reports from export-oriented companies will support the Japanese market, whereas weak results may heighten volatility.
- MOEX (Russia): At the Moscow Exchange, the main period for releasing financial results for the first nine months of 2025 is coming to a close at the end of October. In addition to reports from Sberbank and VTB, investors are watching the outcomes from other Russian issuers — ranging from oil and gas and metallurgy companies to IT representatives and retailers. The cumulative results of this earnings season will shape expectations regarding corporate profits in Russia and may affect the dynamics of the MOEX index.
Day's Summary: What to Watch for Investors
- Consumer Confidence Indices: The morning GfK index from Germany and the evening Conference Board/Richmond Fed figures from the U.S. will provide signals regarding consumer and business optimism. Unexpectedly strong data could boost risk appetite and support cyclical company stocks, while deteriorating sentiments may raise concerns about demand as year-end approaches.
- Banking Reports: The results from Sberbank and VTB will clarify trends in the Russian financial sector (profit dynamics, lending growth) and may influence share prices of banking stocks in Russia. HSBC’s report will provide a global context — its profit and management comments regarding Asian and European markets will be indicative for international bank securities.
- Fintech Sector: Reports from Visa and PayPal will serve as a gauge for activity in electronic payments and e-commerce. Confident growth in transactions and an optimistic outlook from management will bolster payment companies' stocks, while weak results or a cautious tone from management may cool investor interest in the sector.
- Global Trade: UPS’s figures and forecasts will act as indicators for the status of global supply chains and demand for logistics. Surprises in UPS’s reporting could shift investors' focus to the transport sector and reassess expectations for global trade: a strong quarter would enhance faith in economic growth, while a weak one would signal a potential slowdown.
- Strategy and Risk Management: Given the simultaneous release of a significant block of data and reports, it is essential to pre-establish acceptable volatility corridors and trigger levels for the portfolio. It is rational to use limit orders and hedging to protect positions from unexpected volatility throughout the day.
