Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Friday, February 13, 2026: US and Russia CPI Inflation, Central Bank of Russia Rate Decision, Eurozone GDP, and Major Public Company Earnings Reports. Analyzing the Impact on S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX.
For investors, Friday, February 13, 2026, is not about the symbolism of the date but rather a rare concentration of macro signals capable of swiftly shifting expectations regarding interest rates, currencies, and risk appetite. In a single session, the market will receive: CPI inflation data from Switzerland and the US, a GDP estimate for the Eurozone, a key rate decision from the Bank of Russia, a regulator press conference, and in the evening, Russia's CPI. Alongside, we will see earnings reports from a number of large public companies from the US, Canada, and Europe, as well as a block of reports in Japan. Such a combination typically heightens intraday volatility, increases sensitivity to data surprises, and provokes sector rotations (finance, real estate, consumer demand, energy infrastructure, commodity stories).
Economic Events of the Day: Schedule in Moscow Time
- 10:30 — Switzerland: January CPI
- 13:00 — Eurozone: GDP (preliminary/revised) for Q4
- 13:30 — Russia: Central Bank rate decision
- 15:00 — Russia: Central Bank press conference
- 16:30 — US: January CPI
- 19:00 — Russia: January CPI
This sequence forms a "chain" of influence for a global portfolio: it starts with Europe based on the data from Switzerland and the Eurozone, then Russia through the rate decision and rhetoric from the Central Bank, followed by the crucial impulse from the US regarding CPI, after which Russian inflation could adjust expectations on the domestic rate trajectory by the end of the day.
Switzerland: CPI as a Signal for Safe-Haven Currencies and European Assets
Swiss inflation is traditionally important not just locally. The franc is often perceived by the market as a safe-haven currency, and any deviations in CPI from expectations can quickly influence interest rate expectations and movements in CHF. For investors, this primarily represents a currency channel: the movement of EUR/CHF and the overall tone of risk-off/risk-on for the European session. If the CPI turns out to be higher than consensus, the market is inclined to price in a more rigid trajectory of financial conditions, which can exert pressure on high-value segments in Europe due to rising yields. Conversely, a weaker CPI decreases the risk of "rate overpricing" and usually supports cyclical stories, as long as the macro backdrop doesn’t deteriorate.
Eurozone: GDP as a Test of Demand and Interest Rate Resilience
The publication of Eurozone GDP is key to assessing how well the economy is digesting the existing financial conditions. For Euro Stoxx 50 and a broader European basket, it’s not just the tenths of growth that matter, but balance: consumption, investment, and exports. A stronger-than-expected GDP usually elevates the likelihood of a more "patient" stance regarding easing policy, which may push yields up and prompt selective revaluation of "long" growth stories. Contrary to this, weaker GDP enhances the value of defensive sectors and maintains expectations for a softer rate trajectory, often benefiting rate-sensitive segments, including real estate and certain tech stocks in Europe. For investors from the CIS, the currency aspect is also significant: the reaction of EUR to USD sets the tone for several commodity and export stories in emerging markets.
Russia: Central Bank Rate Decision and Press Conference as Drivers for MOEX and the Ruble
At 13:30 Moscow time, the Central Bank of Russia will announce its key rate decision, followed by a press conference at 15:00, which often provides more market insight than the figure itself. If the regulator signals a prolonged period of strict conditions, this supports the ruble due to the interest rate differential but simultaneously raises the discounting of future cash flows and deteriorates the sensitivity of domestic demand. In such an environment, exporters and companies with high foreign earnings often benefit, while segments tied to the credit cycle (certain developers, consumer stories, companies with high debt loads) become more vulnerable.
If the rhetoric shifts towards a more lenient trajectory (or the market receives a signal of an earlier reversal), short-term support may come to "domestic demand" and a range of financial assets, but at the same time, currency risk increases and the significance of the evening's CPI in Russia rises: weak disinflation in soft rhetoric typically exacerbates uncertainty regarding the ruble and yields.
USA: CPI — the Main Global Trigger of the Day for S&P 500 and Yields
The US CPI at 16:30 Moscow time represents a key release for global risk appetite, the dollar, and the yield curve. The market generally trades not the "inflation itself," but rather the deviation from expectations and implications for future rate trajectories. A hotter CPI commonly leads to rising yields and a strengthening USD, which pressures high-duration securities (often tech and various consumer segments) and increases volatility in the S&P 500 index. Alongside, a softer CPI, in contrast, supports risk, enhances the environment for growth multiples, and often boosts demand for quality growth.
Notably, part of the corporate earnings reports in North America is released before the US market opens — meaning the market will receive "micro" news before the CPI and can then reassess their significance in light of macro surprises. This raises the probability of sharp intraday movements in securities, particularly in sectors sensitive to rates.
Russia: Evening CPI as an Adjustment to the Inflation Profile and Rates
The publication of Russia's CPI at 19:00 Moscow time wraps up the series of macro events. For local assets, this could represent a "second round" of reaction following the Central Bank's decision: if inflation turns out to exceed expectations, the market often revisits expectations regarding the real rate and the duration of tight conditions. Practically, this impacts OFZs, the banking sector, credit spreads, and the ruble. If the CPI confirms a slowdown, the chances of a more stable rate profile increase, which enhances predictability for companies focused on domestic demand and alleviates pressure on multiples.
Corporate Reports: Pre-Market (US/Canada/Europe) and the Asian Session
Below is a list of key public companies releasing earnings reports on February 13, 2026. For investors, not only profit figures matter, but also guidance, insights on demand, margins, and capital expenditures — these factors shape medium-term revaluations of sectors.
Before Market Open (Pre-Market) — USA and Canada
- Moderna (MRNA) — focus on revenue from the portfolio, expense rates, and pipeline forecasts; sensitive to overall risk-on sentiment after CPI.
- The Wendy’s Company (WEN) — margins, comparable sales dynamics, commentary on consumer demand and pricing pressures.
- Cameco (CCJ) — uranium cycle, contracts, and price environment; often perceived as a commodity hedge and beneficiary of the energy transition.
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) — demand for auto components and quality of operational recovery; sensitive to the consumer and cost of financing.
- Enbridge (ENB) — dividends, capital expenditures, cash flow sustainability; "income infrastructure" depends on rates through required yields.
- TC Energy (TRP) — tariff base and investment program; investors focus on cash flow stability and regulatory risks.
- Magna International (MGA) — automotive supply chain, orders, and margins; sensitive to the cycle and rates through demand for vehicles.
- Sensient Technologies (SXT) — defensive profile in consumer goods/ingredients, but margins and currency effects are crucial.
- Colliers (CIGI) — real estate market and transactions; highly sensitive to rates and funding expectations.
- Essent Group (ESNT) — mortgage insurance; dependent on the housing market and credit quality.
Europe: Major Issuers
- NatWest Group (NWG) — banking margins, asset quality, and risk costs; reactions intensify with changing rate expectations.
- Norsk Hydro (NHY) — aluminum, energy costs, and global demand; important for assessing the commodity cycle in Europe.
Asia: Key Companies in Japan (Reporting During the Asian Session)
- ENEOS Holdings — energy sector, refining margins, and capital expenditure strategy.
- Dentsu Group — advertising market and corporate budgets; an indicator of business activity.
- Kirin Holdings — consumer sector, cost inflation, and demand.
- Terumo — medical technology and demand sustainability in healthcare.
Key Events of the Day: Where to Expect Maximum Volatility
- 13:30–15:00 Moscow Time — Russia: rate decision and press conference. The market will reassess not only the decision but also the Central Bank's "reaction function" to inflation and the currency.
- 16:30 Moscow Time — USA: CPI. This is usually the main impulse for yields and the dollar, which quickly translates into stocks, commodities, and currencies in emerging markets.
- 19:00 Moscow Time — Russia: CPI. This clarifies the inflation profile following the Central Bank's decision and impacts expectations regarding the duration of the tight regime.
- Reports Before US Market Open — pre-market activity in specific stocks can provide "local trends," but the CPI might amplify or negate them.
Investor Focus for the Day
The focus for the day is on risk management and exposure discipline, rather than attempting to "guess" a single release. Practically, this means: (1) before the Central Bank of Russia's decision, check currency limits and portfolio sensitivity to rates; (2) in the interim before the US CPI — monitor the tone of the Central Bank's rhetoric and the ruble/yields reaction as an early sentiment indicator; (3) after the US CPI — focus primarily on yields and the dollar, as these will set the direction for global risk-on/risk-off; (4) following the Russian CPI — assess how the profile of expectations regarding the real rate changes and which MOEX sectors appear more resilient in the updated configuration.
In terms of the global equity market (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225), the key scenario for the day hinges on whether US inflation presents a "surprise" relative to expectations. Corporate reports from major issuers provide selective opportunities, but on such a macro day, interest rates, yields, and currency will typically determine the overall risk narrative.
