Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports on Monday, February 9, 2026: ECB President's Speech, Geopolitical Factors, Global Earnings Season, and Investor Guidelines.
United States
Economy: The new week begins in the United States without any major macroeconomic releases on Monday, as the publication of key indicators has been postponed due to recent government shutdowns. Nevertheless, investors are keenly watching the January consumer inflation expectations index from the New York Fed, which will be released today—this indicator will provide insights into household sentiments regarding inflation. Additionally, several Federal Reserve representatives are scheduled to deliver speeches, notably members of the Board of Governors, including Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic. The market will look for signals about the future course of monetary policy in their statements, particularly in light of the pause in the rate hike cycle. On the political front, the U.S. Congress decision to gain access to classified materials regarding the Jeffrey Epstein case will attract attention—this move reflects efforts by lawmakers to achieve transparency and may resonate with the public, although it has no direct impact on investments. Concurrently, the U.S. administration is active in foreign policy; Vice President J.D. Vance visits Armenia today, followed by Azerbaijan, discussing trade, investment, and infrastructure projects in the South Caucasus region. These geopolitical steps indicate Washington's desire to strengthen economic ties and stability in this strategically significant area, which is of indirect interest to global investors.
Corporate Reports (S&P 500, February 9): The American earnings season continues today, with several companies set to publish their quarterly results before and after the market opens. Before the trading session, reports from several S&P 500 and mid-cap sector representatives will be released, including Becton Dickinson (medical equipment), Apollo Global Management (alternative investments), and Cleveland-Cliffs (steel industry). Investors will assess the revenue dynamics of these companies and their forecasts, especially considering the impacts of interest rates and demand for raw materials. Additionally, the IT services company Kyndryl (a spin-off from IBM) and the team collaboration platform monday.com will report in the morning, reflecting the state of the technology sector and corporate demand for services. After the primary session closes, attention will shift to the technology and industrial sectors: ON Semiconductor (a major chip manufacturer), Amkor Technology (contract semiconductor manufacturing), Goodyear (leading tire manufacturer), and Arch Capital Group (insurance and finance) will publish their results. Investors also expect reports from the freelance platform Upwork and several other mid-sized companies. ON Semiconductor's earnings per share and revenue outlooks, in particular, will signal the health of the global semiconductor industry, a barometer for the technology sector and the stock market at large. Overall, today’s corporate reports from the U.S. will help gauge whether companies are maintaining their profit growth momentum amidst a mixed macroeconomic backdrop.
Europe
Economy: The focus of the European agenda is on European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg. Lagarde will present a report on the ECB's activities and priorities for the coming year. It is anticipated that she will outline the future strategy for combating inflation and supporting the eurozone economy. MEPs, on their part, intend to urge the ECB to gradually unwind crisis measures introduced during the pandemic and to restore more market mechanisms to financial markets (including reviving interbank lending instead of excessive reliance on ECB loans). An important topic for debate will also be the digital euro—the European Parliament is likely to back initiatives to create a digital currency while emphasizing the need to maintain cash circulation for financial inclusivity. Any comments by Lagarde regarding interest rate prospects, inflation, or the euro's value could affect investor sentiment in Europe. Additionally, a KPMG/REC labor market report for January will come out in the UK, reflecting hiring conditions and the availability of skilled labor—this data is crucial following the Bank of England's unexpected close vote to keep rates on hold last week due to concerns over a cooling labor market. Today also sees the second estimate of the eurozone GDP for Q4; preliminary figures showed a +0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth, and the confirmation or revision of this figure could adjust growth expectations for the region. Overall, the day's economic events in Europe create a mixed backdrop: moderate economic recovery amid still elevated inflation and cautious stances from regulators.
Corporate Reports (Euro Stoxx 50, Europe): The European earnings season is also gaining momentum, although Monday is not the busiest day for major company results. Several corporations from the Euro Stoxx 50 index will release financial reports either today or in the coming days. For example, TotalEnergies and Repsol (oil and gas sector) may focus on updated profitability data amid volatile energy prices, while Societe Generale and other banks continue the series of banking reports in Europe (most major banks from France and Germany reported last week). Notably, the Dutch semiconductor company NXP Semiconductors (part of the broader European index) will report today, indicating whether demand for chips from the automotive and electronics sectors in Europe and Asia remains strong. Investors are also watching for data from German industrial conglomerate Siemens: while its full report is due later, the company may share preliminary figures or news about orders, given recent signs of revitalization in Germany's industry. Overall, European companies are currently displaying mixed results this earnings season: strong exports and a weakened euro are supporting manufacturers, whereas rising costs and interest rates are putting pressure on the financial sector and retail. Today's reports will help clarify this picture, although the main wave of European annual results will concentrate in the second half of February.
Asia
Economy: Asian markets began the week on a positive note, buoyed by political and economic news. In Japan, the ruling coalition secured a convincing victory in the snap elections for the lower house of parliament held over the weekend. Investors welcomed the continuity of power under Prime Minister Sanae Takachi, as a stable parliamentary majority facilitates the government's ability to implement economic reforms and stimulus measures. Consequently, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index continues to hover near multi-year highs, supported by fund inflows into export-oriented stocks. In China, attention is focused on upcoming inflation data: the CPI figures for January will be released tomorrow, with analysts predicting a slowdown in annual inflation to around +0.4% (down from 0.8% in December). If these expectations hold true, they will signal a gradual easing of deflationary risks in China amid a rebound in domestic demand. Furthermore, data on lending and property price dynamics is expected in China: the housing price index is likely to register its 31st consecutive month of decline, reflecting a prolonged correction in the real estate market. In other parts of Asia, secondary but indicative figures are being released: India will announce its January inflation levels (important for the Reserve Bank of India's policy outlook), while Australia has published data on business and consumer confidence, showcasing a recovery in sentiments following the lifting of quarantine restrictions. Overall, the Asian economic landscape today combines political stability (Japan) with cautious optimism regarding inflation (China), helping sustain global investors’ interest in Asian assets.
Corporate Reports (Nikkei 225, Asia): In the Asia-Pacific region, it is halfway through the fiscal year for many companies, especially in Japan, where most corporations end their fiscal year on March 31. Nevertheless, several major Asian companies are reporting quarterly results today. In Tokyo, following the market close, several constituents of the Nikkei 225 index will report their results. Among them is SoftBank Corp. (telecommunications and internet services), which will announce its third-quarter results for the fiscal year 2025. The report from SoftBank Corp. is of particular interest to investors: while the telecom business is stable, the market expects comments regarding the development prospects of 5G and internet services, as well as the impact of yen fluctuations on profitability. Additionally, Japanese recruitment giant Recruit Holdings will publish its results today—the quarterly figures in terms of revenue and earnings per share will serve as indicators of the labor market and online recruitment not only in Japan but globally (the company owns services such as Indeed.com). In the tech sector, the report from Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (a semiconductor materials manufacturer) is notable—improvement in metrics is expected due to rising chip demand. In Seoul and Shanghai, Monday remains relatively calm: the largest South Korean and Chinese companies have either reported earlier or will do so later in the week. Thus, today's Asian corporate reports are specific but significant: they illustrate that despite external challenges, many Asian firms are maintaining steady growth. Investors in the region will be particularly attentive to companies' forecasts regarding global demand and the impact of currency fluctuations to adjust their investment strategies.
Russia
Economy: In Russia, the new business week begins amid the continuation of a tight monetary policy. Although there are no key macroeconomic indicators published on Monday, investors are already looking ahead to the upcoming meeting of the Central Bank of Russia at the end of the week. The Bank of Russia is set to convene to decide on the interest rate, and market consensus anticipates that the key rate will remain at 16.00%. This high rate reflects the regulator's persistent battle against inflation: according to the latest data, annual inflation accelerated to 6.4% in January (up from 5.6% in December), significantly exceeding the target of 4%. The tightening of monetary conditions is already affecting economic activity—consumer demand is cooling, mortgage lending is slowing, and the government is compelled to devise support measures for certain sectors. The ruble remains relatively stable around 79-80 against the U.S. dollar, supported by high oil prices and currency sales by exporters. In the commodities market today, there are no significant movements: Brent crude is trading around $82 per barrel, and Russian energy exporters continue to generate substantial revenue. Thus, the economic backdrop in Russia as of February 9 is characterized by expectations for important decisions from the Central Bank and balancing between inflation risks and the need to support economic growth.
Corporate Reports (MOEX, Russia): On the Moscow stock market, Monday is proceeding relatively quietly concerning corporate events—there are no major public companies releasing financial results specifically on February 9. The Russian earnings season for 2025 is just beginning, and the primary publications of annual results from the largest issuers are still ahead. Investors are preparing for a stream of reports traditionally concentrated in the second half of February and March. For instance, leading banks (Sberbank, VTB), energy giants (Gazprom, Lukoil), and metallurgical companies will soon present their results. Some corporations have already disclosed preliminary figures: last week, the steel company Severstal reported a nearly 80% drop in net profit for 2025 and decided not to pay dividends for the fourth quarter. This is a troubling signal from the metallurgical sector, where the combination of export duties, sanctions, and rising costs seriously pressures margins. Nonetheless, other sectors are expected to show more positive results—retail networks and IT companies may benefit from a rebound in domestic demand late last year. The absence of major reports today provides investors time to analyze already published data and prepare for key releases in the upcoming weeks. The overall sentiment is cautious: the market is closely monitoring corporate news to adjust stock portfolios on the Moscow Exchange based on recent financial indicators and announced dividend policies.
U.S. Earnings Season: Results and Statistics
The U.S. stock market is in the midst of the quarterly earnings season, and overall results are pleasing investors. As of today, the majority of S&P 500 companies have reported their earnings for Q4 2025, demonstrating business resilience even amid a slowing economy. Approximately 76% of companies surpassed analysts’ earnings-per-share (EPS) forecasts, slightly below the average over the past five years (~78%) and consistent with the decade average (~76%). Around 73% of companies reported revenue above consensus estimates—this result even exceeds the historical norm (averaging ~70% over five years and ~66% over ten years). Thus, the proportion of positive revenue surprises remains high, indicating sustained demand. The average magnitude of earnings beats is around +7-8%, which is close to the usual figures of previous years. Such metrics signal that the earnings season in the U.S. is proceeding successfully, even though corporate profit growth is no longer as rapid as in previous quarters. It is worth noting that investors are comparing current results with the record figures of previous years; therefore, even modest earnings beats are viewed positively. Significant contributions to overall figures have come from the technology and communication sectors—many IT giants have reported results exceeding expectations, supporting the entire S&P 500. Approximately 40% of companies have yet to release reports, but the trend has been established: the American corporate sector is generally still outperforming forecasts for earnings and revenue, albeit with a smaller margin than a year ago. For comparison, over the past five years, about three-quarters of companies exceeded EPS forecasts, making the current season statistically close to normal. This fact instills cautious optimism—the U.S. stock market receives support from fundamental factors, partially offsetting macroeconomic uncertainties.
Global Perspective: Regional Trends
The picture of global markets at the start of the week is diverse but generally moderately optimistic. The U.S. continues to demonstrate resilience in corporate profits, despite the economic slowdown—investors hope that a combination of strong reports and cooling inflation will allow the Fed to pause rate hikes. The S&P 500 index strengthened last week and is currently consolidating, reacting to every new signal from the Federal Reserve and fresh data. Europe, on the other hand, shows signs of gradual improvement in macro conditions: the revision of eurozone GDP for Q4 confirmed slight growth, while the ECB's political measures aim at balancing the fight against inflation and supporting the economy. Nonetheless, European exchanges remain sensitive to comments from Christine Lagarde—any hints of changes in ECB direction (such as an earlier rate cut or, conversely, a prolonged pause) could trigger movements in the euro and capital reallocation between bonds and equities. Asia at the beginning of 2026 appears relatively stronger: the Japanese market is hitting records due to a combination of the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy and political stability, while China's economy is gradually recovering from the constraints of recent years. An important global indicator—commodity prices—remain stable: oil, metals, and food are trading without sharp spikes, reducing global inflation risks and supporting emerging markets (including Russia). Although partially isolated from global markets due to sanctions, Russia is still integrated through commodity flows: the stability of energy prices is beneficial for its economy, even as domestic issues (high inflation and interest rates) restrain the growth potential of the Russian stock market. Regionally, one can conclude that the U.S. and Asia are seen as growth drivers in investors' eyes, while Europe and Russia are more vulnerable links, each for its own reasons (the eurozone is juggling between inflation and stagnation, while Russia is balancing profitable exports and internal financial complexities). Globally, sentiments are moderately positive: the MSCI World index remains close to recent highs, and volatility (VIX) is at reduced levels, indicating a relatively calm risk appetite. However, challenges lie ahead for all regions—from American inflation and European energy concerns to Chinese credit risks—so interregional differences in market dynamics are likely to persist.
Conclusion: What Investors Should Watch
In conclusion, investors from the CIS are advised to maintain vigilance and a balanced approach to their strategies. The investment strategy at this stage should take into account several key factors:
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Macroeconomic Signals: Pay attention to important data set to be released in the coming days—in the U.S., this includes the rescheduled February 11 labor market statistics (Nonfarm Payrolls) and CPI inflation figures (February 13). These indicators can significantly influence the global risk appetite and the direction of the dollar, impacting all markets, including Russia. In Europe, monitor the outcomes of Lagarde's speech and the second GDP estimate, and in Asia, watch for China's inflation figures. Market reactions to these economic events will indicate how justified current sentiments are.
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Corporate Reports and Forecasts: The ongoing stream of quarterly results requires selectivity. Investors should pay special attention to companies that not only exceeded EPS and revenue forecasts but also upgraded guidance for future periods. Such firms typically lead the sectors and can pull stock indices higher. In the U.S., already more than three-quarters of companies have outperformed expectations—this serves as a good benchmark for identifying market “stars.” In Europe and Russia, the picture is less homogeneous, so it is important to delve into the specifics of each sector. For example, in Russia, metallurgical companies are struggling due to market conditions, while oil and gas giants may provide pleasant surprises due to exports. The earnings season is a time of heightened stock volatility: this can be exploited by balancing the portfolio, incorporating more global names with strong earnings reports (U.S. or Asian stocks), and cautiously approaching high-risk bets.
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Monetary Policy and Geopolitics: Central banks' rhetoric is currently as important as the numbers themselves. Investors should pay attention to regulators' comments—both from the Fed in the U.S. (several members have signaled a readiness to pause the tightening cycle) and the ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Russia. Any hints of directional changes could redistribute capital flows between stocks, bonds, and commodity assets. On the geopolitical front, several potential risks remain: negotiations and visits by high-ranking officials (such as Vance's visit to the Caucasus) indicate diplomatic movements, but unforeseen events—such as tensions flaring up anywhere—can always impact market sentiments. At present, no significant negative shocks are foreseen; however, diversification across regions and sectors remains the best protection against geopolitical surprises.
Ultimately, today sets the tone for the entire week: investors should evaluate the first signals and news of Monday and be ready for proactive actions as new information emerges. Keep your focus on fundamental indicators—profits, revenues, economic growth—and do not succumb to short-term noise. Many more data releases and reports are ahead, and accurate interpretation will aid in establishing an effective investment strategy, even amid instability. Remember that discipline and a long-term perspective are the best allies of an investor in today’s dynamic market. Happy trading!
