Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Monday, January 26, 2026: Durable Goods Orders in the US, Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany, Earnings Reports from Major US, European, Asian, and Russian Companies. Analysis for Investors and Overview of Global Markets.
The new week starts relatively quietly but holds significant signals for global markets. Investors are focused on US industrial data, primarily December's durable goods orders, which will clarify the state of the manufacturing sector ahead of the Fed's decision mid-week. In Europe, the spotlight is on Germany's Ifo business climate index as a barometer of business activity at the start of the year. On the corporate agenda, the first reports of the earnings season are expected: in the US, industrial and financial companies will be reporting, while Europe highlights the results of a leading airline. In Asia, trading activity is somewhat subdued due to a holiday in Australia; however, regional markets continue to reflect global trends. Overall, Monday sets the tone for the week: the absence of significant macro statistics is offset by close attention to any signals regarding the trajectory of the economy and corporate profits.
Macroeconomic Calendar (EST)
- 12:00 PM – Germany: Ifo Business Climate Index (January).
- 4:30 PM – US: Durable Goods Orders (December).
- 4:30 PM – US: Core Durable Goods Orders, excluding transportation (December).
- 6:30 PM – US: Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index (January).
US: Durable Goods Orders
- Overall Orders Dynamics – a key indicator of business investments in fixed assets. An increase in new orders for durable goods (automobiles, machinery, equipment) signals a revival in the industrial sector and companies’ confidence in future demand. A decrease, however, would indicate caution among producers and could heighten concerns about an economic slowdown.
- Core Orders (excluding transportation and defense) – reflect trends in capital expenditures within the private sector. Orders for capital goods, excluding defense and aerospace sectors, serve as a leading indicator of business investments. Sustained growth in this figure will support positive GDP expectations in the US for Q4, while weakness could prompt downward revisions of forecasts.
- Market Impact – strong durable goods data can strengthen the US dollar and raise Treasury yields, as it indicates economic resilience ahead of the Fed's decision. This may pressure high-tech stocks (sensitive to interest rates) but support prices of industrial companies. Conversely, weak statistics may weaken the dollar and lower yields, intensifying expectations for an accommodative policy – temporarily supporting stock indices.
Europe: Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany
- Business Sentiments – The January Ifo index reflects German companies' assessment of the current situation and expectations for the next six months. This is the first major indicator of the year for the Eurozone economy. An improvement in the index will indicate a recovery in business activity at the beginning of 2026 following possible stagnation, supporting European markets and the euro. A drop in the index would be a worrying signal about weak demand and investment in the EU's largest economy.
- Index Components – Investors will pay close attention to sub-indices related to the current situation and business expectations. An increase in the expectations component is particularly important: optimism among companies regarding the future may signal a mitigation of recession risks in Europe. If expectations have worsened, this could bolster defensive sentiment, potentially leading to a drop in the DAX index and increased demand for safe assets (bonds, gold).
- Impact on ECB Policy – Although no decision from the European Central Bank is expected on this day, Ifo data indirectly influences ECB rhetoric. An improving business climate will provide hawkish arguments for further tightening policy to curb inflation, while a weak index will add to the case for a cautious approach. This, in turn, will affect the EUR/USD exchange rate and yields on European bonds.
Earnings Reports: Before US Market Opens (BMO)
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) – one of the largest US steel producers will report before trading begins. Investor attention will be on the margins of the metals business and management's forecast for steel demand in 2026. Delivery volumes and price dynamics are particularly significant: an increase in sales amidst stable prices will indicate a recovery in industrial demand. Market participants will also assess the company's comments on raw material and energy costs to understand cost pressures.
Earnings Reports: After US Market Closes (AMC)
- Nucor Corporation (NUE) – the largest steel producer in the US (S&P 500). The Q4 report will showcase the state of the American steel industry. Key metrics include the average selling price of steel products, capacity utilization, and shipment volumes. Investors are also awaiting demand forecasts from the construction and automotive sectors – the primary consumers of steel. Strong results from Nucor could serve as a positive driver for the entire industrial sector, while weak figures may heighten concerns about the manufacturing sector.
- Brown & Brown (BRO) – an insurance broker and consultant. The company’s results will reflect the state of the insurance market: growth in commission income and organic premium growth will indicate healthy demand for insurance products from businesses and consumers. Comments from management regarding pricing in property and liability insurance, as well as forecasts for new client acquisition rates, are particularly important. BRO's data will be interesting to investors as an indicator of the financial sector and the business activity of small and medium enterprises.
- W. R. Berkley (WRB) – a large commercial insurer (property & casualty insurance). The focus is on the combined ratio (losses and expenses relative to premiums) and the dynamics of insurance reserves. Improvement in these metrics indicates the profitability of underwriting and the robustness of the insurance portfolio. Additionally, WRB may comment on trends in catastrophic losses and significant claims: a low level of catastrophic payouts will support results. Berkley's report will provide insights into the state of the insurance sector and corporate credit risk.
- Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) – an investment trust specializing in real estate for scientific research laboratories and biotech offices. The quarterly report will show whether demand for lab space remains high despite the overall weakness in commercial real estate. Investors will evaluate occupancy levels, rental rate trends, and plans for new campus developments. Strong results from ARE will indicate that the life sciences segment remains resilient against macro challenges, while issues with vacancy rates or falling rents may heighten concerns about office real estate.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: In Europe, Monday's corporate calendar is light on blue-chip reports. The main focus is on the report from Ryanair, Europe's largest low-cost airline. The financial results of Ryanair for the last quarter of 2025 (Q3 of the company's financial year) will demonstrate trends in passenger traffic, flight occupancy, and the impact of fuel prices. A successful report from the carrier will support stocks in the tourism and airline sectors in Europe, signaling a continued recovery in travel. Additionally, the report from Swedish industrial company Epiroc AB (mining equipment) will provide insights into global investment demand in commodity and infrastructure markets. Overall, European exchanges at the start of the week will react to the Ifo index and external factors, since major Euro Stoxx 50 company reports are concentrated in the latter half of the week.
- Nikkei 225/Japan: In Japan, there are no significant statistical releases on Monday, and markets are following global trends. Investors are evaluating a moderate slowdown in inflation in the country (December's core CPI eased to ~2.4% YoY) and speculating on how this might affect the Bank of Japan's policy. The earnings season in Tokyo is just gaining momentum, with major releases from high-tech firms and automakers expected closer to the end of January and early February. At the start of the week, the Nikkei index may move within a limited range as local investors await signals from the US Fed and the first results from Japanese exporters.
- MOEX/Russia: The Russian market is entering a relative calm before the annual earnings season. On Mondays, large public companies from the Moscow Exchange index typically do not release financial results – key reports for 2025 are expected in February and March. However, operational data from certain issuers for Q4 (e.g., resource extraction, production indicators) may be released, which will locally influence respective stocks. The overall sentiment on the Moscow Exchange on this day will be shaped by global factors – oil price dynamics, moods in global markets, and the ruble exchange rate. The absence of internal triggers means that Russian investors will be oriented towards external signals of risk and appetite for emerging markets.
Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- Durable Goods in the US: The durable goods report will be the main trigger of the day. Pay attention to the core component (capital orders) – its solid growth will support the dollar and reinforce expectations of a "hawkish" tone from the Fed, whereas weakness may trigger a bond rally and drive up the Nasdaq.
- European Economy: The morning Ifo index in Germany will set the tone for trading in the EU. Better-than-expected figures will strengthen the euro and stocks of cyclical companies in Europe (automotive, banks), while negative surprises will increase demand for safe assets and may pressure the EUR exchange rate, benefiting exporters.
- Corporate Earnings: The focus is on results from industrial leaders and the consumer sector. In the US, the duo of Steel Dynamics and Nucor will provide benchmarks for the commodities and construction segments: their margins and forecasts will reveal the state of demand for steel. In Europe, the Ryanair report will illustrate trends in the tourism sector and consumer spending. It is important for investors to assess whether corporate profits justify high stock valuations or if forecast revisions should be anticipated.
- Central Bank Meetings Ahead: A calm Monday offers an opportunity to prepare for mid-week volatility. By Wednesday, the market anticipates decisions from the US Fed and the Bank of Canada, followed by data on inflation in Japan and GDP in Europe. Therefore, today can be utilized by investors for positioning: reviewing hedges, ensuring portfolio diversification, and establishing key risk levels ahead of potentially sharp market fluctuations.
