Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Wednesday, January 28, 2026: Federal Reserve Meeting, Bank of Canada Rate, and Inflation in Russia and Australia

Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Earnings for January 28, 2026. Meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Decision of the Bank of Canada, Publication of CPI in Russia and Australia, Bank of Japan's Minutes, EIA Weekly Oil Inventory, as well as Company Reports from the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia.

On Wednesday, a comprehensive agenda is set for global markets. In Asia, attention turns to the minutes of the latest Bank of Japan meeting and the commencement of the largest airshow Wings India 2026 in Hyderabad (featuring Boeing, Airbus, among others), reflecting the growth of India's aviation sector. In Australia, inflation data for Q4 is released, influencing expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia's policies. The European session remains relatively calm on the macroeconomic front; however, investors are closely monitoring corporate reports from leading companies in the region, while market conditions will largely be shaped by expectations of actions from central banks in North America.

The key event of the day will be the meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed) later in the evening: the outcome of the FOMC meeting will set the market sentiment regarding interest rates in the U.S. and future monetary policy. Earlier that evening, the Bank of Canada will also announce its rate decision, setting the tone for other central banks. The energy market will focus on EIA's weekly oil inventory statistics, which could influence oil prices and commodity currencies. On the corporate front, a series of financial results from major publicly traded companies will be released: from U.S. tech giants (Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, etc.) to industrial leaders in Europe (ASML, Volvo) and key players in Asian markets (Advantest, Maruti). Russian investors will assess new inflation statistics and operational performance from X5 Group. Collectively, these factors will define the dynamics of the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and Moscow Exchange indices during and at the end of the day. It is vital for investors to analyze these events in conjunction: central bank decisions ↔ bond yields and U.S. dollar exchange rate ↔ commodity prices ↔ risk appetite in equity markets.

Macroeconomic Calendar (EST)

1. 02:50 — Japan: Publication of the minutes from the latest Bank of Japan meeting.
2. 03:30 — Australia: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q4 2025.
3. 05:00 — India: Opening of the Wings India 2026 airshow (January 28–31, Hyderabad).
4. 17:45 — Canada: Decision by the Bank of Canada on the key interest rate.
5. 18:30 — Canada: Press conference by the Governor of the Bank of Canada following the meeting.
6. 18:30 — U.S.: Weekly commercial crude oil inventories (EIA).
7. 19:00 — Russia: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 (preliminary data).
8. 22:00 — U.S.: Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates (outcomes of the FOMC meeting).
9. 22:30 — U.S.: Federal Reserve press conference (Chair Jerome Powell on the economy and monetary policy).

U.S. Federal Reserve: Rate Decision

• Monetary Policy: Markets expect the Fed to maintain the federal funds rate at its current level after a tightening cycle. The focus is on whether the FOMC signals a possible shift in policy in the coming months. Any hint at an upcoming rate cut could propel stock prices upward and weaken the dollar, while an assertion of maintaining a hawkish stance to combat inflation may lead to an increase in Treasury yields and pressure on high-risk assets.
• Forecasts and Rhetoric: Investors are scrutinizing the accompanying statement and Jerome Powell's tone in his comments. Assessments of the U.S. economy are critical – a stable labor market and inflation near target levels may allow the Fed to pause or conclude the rate hike cycle. However, if the regulator expresses concern over the persistence of inflationary pressures, it may signal a prolonged period of high rates without relief.
• Market Reaction: The Fed's decision and the rhetoric from the press conference typically induce heightened volatility. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq could react sharply to any changes in rate forecasts, with the technology sector being particularly sensitive. The U.S. dollar exchange rate and prices for gold and oil will also be directly influenced by signals from the Fed, as they affect global liquidity and risk appetite.

Bank of Canada: Rate Expectations

• Interest Rate Decision: The Bank of Canada will announce its key rate decision amid inflation stabilizing around the target of 2%. Most analysts anticipate no change in the rate given the economic slowdown in Canada at the end of 2025. Nevertheless, any unexpected change in the rate would surprise the markets, directly impacting the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the performance of the TSX index on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
• Regulator Comments: During the press conference, the Governor of the Bank of Canada will provide an updated view on inflation risks and the state of the economy. Investors will evaluate whether the rhetoric suggests the possibility of future rate cuts in 2026. Any mentions of stability in commodity prices (crucial for the Canadian economy) and the housing market situation will affect expectations for monetary policy. The alignment or divergence of the Bank of Canada's approach with that of the U.S. Federal Reserve may set the tone for movements in the USD/CAD currency pair and the overall mood among global investors.

Inflation in Australia and Russia

• Australia (CPI): Q4 2025 consumer inflation data will reflect the rate of price growth in the Australian economy. Close attention will be paid to the core CPI index: a sustained slowdown in core inflation could strengthen expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will refrain from further rate hikes or transition to easing. Against the backdrop of a slowing Chinese economy (Australia's key trading partner) and declining commodity prices, a weak CPI could bolster "dovish" sentiments, while an unexpected rise in inflation might increase yields on Australian bonds and strengthen the AUD.
• Russia (Price Index): Rosstat will publish new consumer price data, providing insight into the inflation dynamics at the end of 2025. In previous months, inflation in Russia accelerated amid a weakening ruble and budgetary stimulation, prompting the Central Bank of Russia to raise its key rate. If December data shows a slowdown in price growth, it could reduce pressure on the regulator concerning further tightening. However, high inflation (significantly above the target of 4%) will maintain expectations for a sustained high key rate in Russia. The market reaction of federal loan bonds (OFZ) and the ruble exchange rate will depend on whether the statistics meet forecasts or deliver surprises.

Oil and Commodities: EIA Inventory Report

• U.S. Oil Inventories: The weekly report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on crude oil and petroleum product inventories in the U.S. is traditionally released on Wednesdays and serves as an indicator of the balance between supply and demand in the world's largest fuel market. If the data shows a significant reduction in commercial oil inventories, it could indicate robust demand or limited supply, supporting a rise in prices for Brent and WTI. Conversely, an unexpected increase in inventories could weaken oil prices, especially impacting shares in the energy sector and the currencies of commodity-exporting countries (including the Russian ruble and Canadian dollar).
• Commodity Price Dynamics: Besides inventories, investors are monitoring the overall trend in commodity markets. By the end of January, oil is trading amidst a combination of factors: geopolitical issues, OPEC+ agreements on production, and prospects for global demand. Fluctuations in oil prices influence inflation expectations worldwide. Additionally, prices for industrial metals and gold are under scrutiny: expectations of a softer Fed policy could support precious metals, whereas strong data from the Chinese economy typically fuels increases in industrial metals.

U.S.: Earnings Reports from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Others

• Microsoft (MSFT): One of the leaders of the S&P 500 will present financial results for October to December 2025. Investors expect revenue growth against the backdrop of sustained demand for Azure cloud services and AI products. Particular emphasis will be placed on management's comments about business prospects in artificial intelligence and enterprise software. A strong report from Microsoft could support the entire U.S. tech sector, while weak figures might trigger a sell-off in growth stocks.
• Meta Platforms (META): The parent company of Facebook and Instagram will report for Q4 2025, which includes the holiday advertising season. The market expects a recovery in advertising revenue growth thanks to enhanced monetization of Reels and a stable audience. Costs related to the metaverse and AI projects are also in focus – investors are seeking signs of improved profitability following cost-cutting measures earlier in the year. Meta's results will set the tone for the entire NASDAQ, especially for the internet segment.
• Tesla (TSLA): The largest electric vehicle manufacturer will publish financial figures for Q4, including delivery data for the entirety of 2025. Investor attention is centered on Tesla's operating margin – whether the company managed to maintain profitability amid high competition and rising commodity costs. The markets are also awaiting updates regarding new model production (e.g., Cybertruck) and demand forecasts for 2026. Tesla's stock dynamics post-report could significantly influence the Nasdaq index and sentiment around the automotive sector.
• IBM (IBM): The conservative technology giant will report on earnings for the last quarter of 2025. Investors will analyze performance in cloud solutions and software divisions, as well as metrics from the new business after restructuring (spinning off the services unit into a separate entity, Kyndryl). Steady growth in profit and revenue for IBM would send positive signals for "legacy" IT companies, whereas weak segments (such as consulting or mainframes) could amplify concerns regarding demand from corporate clients.
• Starbucks (SBUX): The world's largest coffeehouse chain will publish results for Q1 of fiscal 2026 (October to December 2025). Focus will be on comparable sales (like-for-like) in the U.S. and China: a recovery in consumer activity in China post-COVID restrictions could have significantly boosted revenue in Asia, while in the U.S., investors are concerned about demand stability given high interest rates. The profitability of Starbucks and dynamics regarding the loyalty program will also be center stage for analysts. The results of the SBUX report will help evaluate the state of the consumer sector and trends in the hospitality industry.

Europe: Earnings Reports from ASML, Volvo, and Other Companies

• ASML Holding (ASML): The Dutch manufacturer of chip-making equipment, among the largest companies in the Euro Stoxx 50, will report for Q4 2025. ASML's results are viewed as a barometer of the semiconductor industry in Europe and globally. Investors anticipate data on new order volume for lithography systems, especially in light of potential demand declines from chipmakers in China and Taiwan. The management forecasts for ASML for 2026 (particularly regarding demand for advanced EUV scanners) will impact the entire technology sector in European markets.
• AB Volvo (VOLV): The Swedish manufacturer of trucks and special vehicles will present financial results for Q4. Volvo's metrics are interesting as an indicator of global industrial activity: order volumes for trucks in Europe, North America, and Asia will reflect the state of the transport and construction sectors. Margins will also be scrutinized – whether the company managed to pass on rising costs (for raw materials, energy, labor) into equipment prices. Steady results from Volvo will support shares in the industrial sector in Europe, while signs of demand slowdown may trigger caution among investors.
• Lonza Group (LONN): The Swiss chemical-pharmaceutical company, specializing in providing ingredients and services for biotech, will disclose its results for Q4 2025. Lonza is a key contractor for numerous pharmaceutical firms, so trends in its revenue and orders reflect trends in the development of new drugs and vaccines. Investors are expecting updates on margins, as high energy costs in Europe may have impacted profitability. Lonza's results will signal the state of the pharmaceutical sector and the level of investing activity in biotechnology.
• Other European Companies: Several other companies in Europe from various sectors will also release results on Wednesday. Among them are: Royal KPN (Netherlands, telecommunications), Tele2 (Sweden, telecommunications), online broker Nordnet (Sweden), and steel producer SSAB (Sweden). While these firms may not be among the highest capitalization, their results contribute to a broader picture of the state of the telecom sector, fintech services, and industry in the European region. The local markets' reaction to their reports will depend on whether companies exceed analysts' forecasts or encounter growth slowdowns.

Asia: Earnings Reports from Advantest, Maruti, Larsen & Toubro

• Advantest (6857.T): The Japanese manufacturer of semiconductor testing equipment will present results for Q3 of its fiscal year 2025. The company is a significant component of the Nikkei 225 index, and its report will provide insights into the state of the global supply chain for chips. A growing order portfolio from chip manufacturers (for example, in Taiwan and the U.S.) will indicate a revival in the industry, while weak sales signal a continuing inventory correction in the sector. Investor attention will also focus on Advantest's comments about demand for testing equipment amidst advancements in AI and 5G technologies.
• Larsen & Toubro (LT.NS): The largest engineering and construction conglomerate in India will announce financial results for the quarter. L&T's metrics serve as a barometer of investment activity in India's infrastructure and industry. Growth in profit and order backlog amid government projects and private investments will confirm the acceleration of economic development in the country. Particular attention will be paid to project margins and the situation in the energy division. Solid results from L&T could support growth in India's Nifty 50 index and bolster confidence among foreign investors in the Indian market.
• Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI): The largest automaker in India, controlling approximately half of the local automotive market, will publish results for Q3 of fiscal 2026. Investors will assess vehicle sales dynamics for Maruti amid rising interest rates and competition from foreign brands. Important metrics include export figures and market share of new models, as well as management comments on supply chain issues (chip shortages) and plans for electric vehicles. Maruti's results will reflect sentiment in the Asian auto sector and provide signals regarding consumer demand in developing markets.

Russia: X5 Group and Corporate Highlights of the Day

• X5 Group (FIVE): The leading retail chain in Russia (brands "Pyaterochka," "Perekrestok," etc.) will present operational results for 2025. Investors are interested in the dynamics of comparable sales (LFL) in the grocery segment amid double-digit food inflation and shifting consumer behavior. Total revenue is expected to rise due to the opening of new stores and development of online delivery, although growth rates may slow compared to peak post-pandemic recovery. Additionally, X5 may disclose preliminary estimates of profit or margins, allowing evaluations of the impact of cost inflation (wages, logistics) on retail. As one of the "blue chips" of the Moscow Exchange index, X5 could influence sentiment in the Russian stock market, especially in the consumer goods sector.
• Other Corporate Events in Russia: Besides X5, operational results for 2025 will also be released by the relatively new public retailer of men’s clothing, Henderson Fashion Group (HNFG). While Henderson's business scale is smaller than X5, its figures are noteworthy in the context of recovery in demand for non-food retail and the fashion segment in Russia. Moreover, investors in the Russian market continue to monitor external factors – decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and oil prices, which may outweigh the influence of local reports. Combined with data on inflation in Russia, these corporate news events will help shape expectations for the future monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and the overall state of the economy.

Day's Summary: What Investors Should Focus On

• 1) Central Bank Decisions (Fed and Bank of Canada): will set the global "tone" for markets. Soft signals will support stocks and bonds, while a hawkish rhetoric is likely to increase volatility, especially in currency and commodity segments.
• 2) Inflation Data: will indicate the price trajectory in different parts of the world. Low CPI in Australia and a slowdown in inflation in Russia will be positive for local markets, while an unexpected rise will enhance expectations of a stringent approach from regulators.
• 3) Corporate Earnings Reports from Giants: Results from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and other leaders will guide the direction for the tech sector and Wall Street indices. In Europe and Asia, key companies (ASML, Volvo, Advantest, etc.) will provide signals for their respective industries. Surprises in reports may lead to sharp movements in individual stocks and sectors.
• 4) Oil Market: The reaction of oil prices to the EIA statistics will reflect on oil and gas companies as well as oil-dependent economies. It is crucial for investors to understand whether inventory changes signify short-term fluctuations or are part of a more sustained trend of demand/supply.
• 5) Geopolitics and Other Factors: Alongside scheduled events, a backdrop of geopolitical risks and news persists, which may unexpectedly alter sentiments. Market participants should maintain flexibility: a combination of macro data, regulatory decisions, and corporate results forms a complex picture, necessitating a balanced approach to risk and assets.