Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Friday, January 9, 2026: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Inflation in China and Germany

Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Earnings on January 9, 2026: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Inflation in China and Brazil, U.S. Consumer Sentiment, and Earnings Results from the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Friday presents a busy news backdrop for global markets: In Asia, attention is fixed on inflation data from China, which will indicate the state of domestic demand in the country. In Europe, the focus is on the dynamics of German industrial production, reflecting the health of the Eurozone's manufacturing sector. The key driver of the day will be the release of the December U.S. labor market report (Nonfarm Payrolls), which could significantly influence expectations regarding Fed policy and investors' sentiments. Additionally, consumer sentiment and housing activity indicators will be released in the U.S. On the corporate front, the new earnings season kicks off, with several major companies from the U.S., Europe, and Asia set to present their results, providing initial profit guidance at the start of 2026. Investors need to assess these diverse data points in conjunction, tracking the interconnections: U.S. labor market ↔ Fed policy ↔ bond yields ↔ stock and commodity dynamics.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MST)

1. 04:30 — China: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December.
2. 10:00 — Germany: Industrial Production for November.
3. 15:00 — Brazil: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December.
4. 16:30 — U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls (December).
5. 16:30 — U.S.: Unemployment Rate (December).
6. 16:30 — U.S.: Housing Starts for October.
7. 18:00 — U.S.: Consumer Inflation Expectations (January, preliminary).
8. 18:00 — U.S.: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (January, preliminary).
9. 21:00 — U.S.: Baker Hughes Report on Active Drilling Rigs.

Key Points to Watch in U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls

• Job creation rates and unemployment trends are the main benchmarks for the Fed. An unexpectedly strong hiring growth will bolster expectations for further tightening (putting pressure on bonds and stocks), while weak data will, in contrast, ease market sentiment.
• The increase in average hourly earnings is a key indicator of inflationary pressure from the labor market. Accelerating worker income may alarm markets and amplify "hawkish" sentiments, whereas a slowdown in wage growth could support hopes for a pause in interest rate hikes.
• Market reaction: Treasury yields and the dollar will respond sharply to the U.S. report. Rising yields typically pressure tech stocks and gold, while a weak release could weaken the dollar and boost stock indices.

Inflation in China and Brazil

• China: The CPI dynamics near zero indicate weak domestic demand. December data will reveal whether deflation risks persist in China’s economy. Low inflation strengthens expectations for additional stimulus measures from the People's Bank of China and impacts commodity markets through potential reduced demand from China.
• Brazil: Annual inflation slowed to around the target of 4% by the end of 2025, thanks to the central bank's tight policy. Another CPI decline in December paves the way for further monetary easing in Brazil. This data is crucial for investors in emerging markets (EM) as it affects bond and currency rates in the region.

Europe: German Industry Under Watch

• Germany: The November industrial production figures will reflect the state of Europe's key manufacturing sector. Continued decline signals ongoing challenges in German exports (automotive and engineering), while an unexpected increase may indicate gradual stabilization in the Eurozone's largest economy.
• Market impact: Strong data from Germany will support the euro and stocks of cyclical companies (DAX, Euro Stoxx 50). Conversely, disappointing statistics may intensify pessimistic sentiment in European markets: investors might shift to defensive assets, and expectations for the ECB may soften.

U.S.: Housing Market and Consumer Confidence

• New residential construction: The Housing Starts figures (even when published with a delay) reflect activity in the U.S. real estate market. Weak data on new home permits may indicate the influence of high Fed rates on the construction sector, while growth in this metric will signal sustained demand for housing despite expensive loans.
• Consumer sentiment: The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January will reflect household mood at the start of the year. An increase in the index and a decline in inflation expectations will strengthen confidence in consumer spending, while a drop in sentiment could signal risks for retail sales and the broader economy.

Earnings Reports: Pre-Market (BMO, U.S., Europe, and Asia)

• Constellation Brands (STZ) — American alcoholic beverage producer. Focus: growth in beer sales amid increased holiday demand, operating margin trends, and updated projections for the financial year (considering inflation of costs and consumer trends).
• Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) — Largest pharmacy chain (Dow Jones index). Key points: comparable sales in the U.S. and the UK for the holiday quarter, progress in the cost-cutting program, and optimization of pharmacy operations. Investors will evaluate retail pharmacy margins and management’s comments on prospects for 2026.
• TSMC (TSM) — Taiwan's semiconductor giant, releasing December revenue data. These figures effectively precede Q4 results: growth in sales will indicate recovering global demand for chips (AI, automotive, electronics), while a decline in sales will amplify concerns about a slowdown in the technology cycle.
• J Sainsbury (SBRY.L) — One of the leading UK retail chains. Will present results for the Christmas quarter (Q3). Attention: comparable sales dynamics in food categories, inflation's impact on purchasing patterns, and potential adjustments to annual profit forecasts following the holidays.
• Yaskawa Electric (6506.T) — Japanese leader in robotics and industrial automation. Reporting for Q3 of the 2025 financial year. Important metrics: volume of new orders for robotic systems (especially from automotive and electronics), business profitability, and any changes in annual forecasts. Yaskawa's results set the tone for the Asian technology sector.

Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC, U.S.)

• No major corporations are scheduled to release their earnings after market close on January 9. Only a few small and mid-cap companies (such as Anixa Biosciences in biotechnology, RCI Hospitality in the entertainment sector) will release their quarterly earnings; however, their results are unlikely to impact the broader market.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50: As of January 9, there are no significant earnings releases from major Eurozone companies, so the tone for European markets will be set by macro news and external factors. Investors are monitoring reactions to statistics from the U.S. and China, as well as the initial trading reports from UK retailers (e.g., Sainsbury’s) to assess consumer demand in the region.
• Nikkei 225 / Japan: The quarterly earnings season begins in Tokyo. Reports from companies like Yaskawa Electric and other manufacturers will provide early signals for the Japanese market. Strong results will support the Nikkei 225, especially stocks in the tech and industrial sectors, while weak results may heighten investor caution. Additionally, the yen’s exchange rate and the Bank of Japan's policy remain background factors for index dynamics.
• MOEX / Russia: Following the New Year holidays, the Russian market returns to activity, but there are no significant corporate earnings reports on January 9. The peak for the publication of annual financial reports from major Russian issuers traditionally occurs in February-March. Thus, in the short term, the Moscow Exchange will primarily focus on external signals—oil prices, global risk appetite, and currency dynamics.

Day's Summary: What Investors Should Focus On

• 1) U.S. Labor Market: December Nonfarm Payrolls (along with the unemployment rate) are the main trigger of the day for markets. Particular attention should be on wage growth; an overheating labor market may lead to rising yields and pressure on stocks. It would not be surprising if the indices and currencies experience sharp fluctuations after the report's release.
• 2) Inflation Trends: Data from China and Brazil allow for an assessment of global price pressures. Low CPI in China reinforces a "dovish" sentiment, while moderate inflation in Brazil confirms the controllability of the situation in emerging markets.
• 3) Europe: Statistics from Germany will clarify how confidently the European Union enters the new year. Improved figures will support the Euro Stoxx 50 and the euro's exchange rate, while weakness will bolster expectations of a softer ECB policy.
• 4) Corporate Earnings: Results from Constellation Brands, Walgreens, Sainsbury’s (and other reports of the day) will provide insights into demand and margins across various sectors—from consumer goods to retail. Additionally, data from tech companies in Asia (such as TSMC) may shift investors' focus from macroeconomics to corporate stories in specific industries.
• 5) Risk Management: The day is packed with events, and volatility spikes are possible. It is advisable to pre-set risk levels and use limit orders and hedging tools for portfolio protection.