Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Saturday, July 25, 2026: A Blank Macroeconomic Calendar, Weekly Summaries for S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX, and the Bank of Russia's Rate Cut to 14%, New Tariff Round from the U.S., and Market Preparation for Fed Decisions and Big Tech Earnings
Saturday, July 25, 2026, arrives on global markets following one of the most volatile weeks of the second half of the year. No economic publications are scheduled for this day: stock exchanges in the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia are closed, official statistics are not released, and corporate earnings from major public companies do not fall on the weekend. However, such a pause provides investors with an opportunity to consolidate the disparate signals from the week into a coherent picture. Over the past five trading days, markets absorbed the ECB's decision, the Bank of Russia's rate cut, a leap in Brent oil above $100 per barrel, a new round of U.S. import tariffs, and an initial wave of disappointments regarding artificial intelligence. The economic events and corporate reports for July 25, 2026, should be viewed as a day for recalibrating risks ahead of the Fed meeting and the earnings reports of the largest tech companies.
Macroeconomic Calendar: Why Markets are Silent on July 25
The global economic calendar is devoid of major releases across all key jurisdictions.
- U.S.: There are no scheduled publications from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, BLS, or regional Federal Reserve Banks. The market is processing the preliminary PMI for July, which showed the fastest growth in business activity in eight months, along with a decline in initial unemployment claims to a 57-year low.
- Eurozone: Following the ECB meeting and the preliminary PMIs for Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, no additional statistics are available. Inflation in the area remains around 2.8%, while the target is set at 2%.
- Asia: Japan, China, and India are not releasing data. Attention shifts to the Chinese PMIs and the Bank of Japan's decision, both expected at the end of next week.
- Russia: Rosstat and the Bank of Russia do not have scheduled publications. Weekly inflation for July 14-20 was 0.17%, repeating the previous week's result.
Weekly Summary: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX
The week concluded with the second consecutive downturn for the U.S. market. On Thursday, the S&P 500 lost 1.21% and closed at 7,408.30 points — its worst day in over a month. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.15% to 25,137.69 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.97% to 51,711.65 points. On Friday, the indices partially recovered their losses amidst falling oil prices, but the overall weekly result remained negative. The combined market capitalization of the "magnificent seven" fell by nearly $800 billion in just one Thursday.
European indices moved in sync with Wall Street: the Euro Stoxx 50 fell by 1.69% on Thursday, DAX by 1.56%, CAC 40 by 1.64%, and FTSE 100 by 0.73%. The Nikkei 225 remained positive thanks to a weak yen and a resilient export sector. The MOEX Index briefly dropped below 2,100 points on Friday morning prior to the Central Bank of Russia's decision, but after the release of the meeting's outcomes, it transitioned to growth.
Oil and Geopolitics: Brent Above $100 and a Drop to $95
The primary source of volatility for the week was the energy market. Following statements from Yemen's Houthis about attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, Brent crude traded above $100 per barrel for the first time since late May. The yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds briefly rose above 4.7% — a high not seen this year. However, prices reversed on Friday: Brent lost about 5% and fell below $95 due to reports of potential renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran with mediation from third parties. Nonetheless, for the week, oil ended on a positive note, with a significant geopolitical risk premium remaining in prices.
New U.S. Tariffs: 10–12.5% for 60 Trading Partners
Effective at 12:01 AM Eastern Time on July 24, a new tariff regime from the U.S. came into effect. The administration imposed additional tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 major trading partners, including the EU, China, and India, resulting from an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. This measure affects about 99.4% of American imports and replaces the expired temporary 10% global tariff. Several energy products have been exempted from the tariffs. For investors, this represents a new structural cost factor for importers, retail, and industrial supply chains, along with an added inflationary risk for the Fed.
Corporate Reports of the Week: U.S. Companies in the S&P 500
The earnings season for the second quarter of 2026 has crossed the halfway mark. Of the first 95 companies reporting within the S&P 500, approximately 88% exceeded consensus earnings estimates, with a median beat of about 7%. However, the market reaction to these earnings proved asymmetric: stocks were penalized more for increased capital expenditures than rewarded for profit increases.
Technology and Artificial Intelligence
- Alphabet (GOOGL) — revenue increased by 24% to $119.8 billion, earnings per share were $9.11, and Google Cloud revenue surged by 82%. However, the doubling of the capital expenditure forecast to $205 billion crashed shares by more than 7%.
- Tesla (TSLA) — revenue grew by 26% to $28.2 billion, but earnings per share dropped by 18% to $0.33, and free cash flow fell to negative $1.1 billion. Shares lost about 14%.
- Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), IBM, and ServiceNow (NOW) reported amidst an overall correction in the semiconductor sector.
Finance, Consumer, and Telecom
- American Express (AXP), Verizon (VZ), and NextEra Energy (NEE) exceeded profit forecasts on Friday but fell short on revenue.
- Capital One (COF), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Blackstone (BX), Chubb (CB), and Comcast (CMCSA) round out the picture of the financial and media sectors.
Industry, Energy, and Transport
- General Motors (GM), 3M (MMM), Honeywell (HON), RTX, Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) reflected the durability of the defense cycle.
- Union Pacific (UNP), Norfolk Southern (NSC), CSX, and Canadian National Railway (CNI) provided insights into North American industrial activity.
- SLB, Halliburton (HAL), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), and Newmont (NEM) served as indicators of the commodity cycle.
Europe and Asia: SAP, STMicroelectronics, and Shin-Etsu Chemical
From the Euro Stoxx 50 and the European context, reports were released by SAP SE, STMicroelectronics (STM), and Rogers Communications. The Asian block featured the Japanese chemical giant Shin-Etsu Chemical, which is part of the Nikkei 225 and serves as a leading indicator for the semiconductor supply chain. The overall conclusion for the Old World: the industrial sector continues to lag behind the services sector, and energy costs remain the primary risk to margins for European exporters.
The Russian Market: Key Rate at 14% and MOEX Issuer Reporting
On July 24, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% per annum — the fourth easing since the beginning of the year. The updated medium-term forecast suggests an average key rate in the range of 14.5-14.6% for 2026 and 10.5-12.5% for 2027. The regulator noted moderate economic growth in the second quarter and indicated that the summer acceleration in prices is primarily linked to temporary factors, while also pointing out a rise in inflation expectations. The summary of the discussion will be published on August 5, with the next meeting scheduled for September 11.
The market's reaction was positive: after a morning dip below 2,100 points, the MOEX Index started to rise. The exchange rate of the dollar, set by the Bank of Russia as of July 24, was 78.4049 rubles. Among the corporate news of the week, noteworthy was the decline in NOVATEK's net profit under IFRS for the half-year to 218.6 billion rubles, the ambiguous earnings report of Rusagro for the second quarter with a dividend recommendation of 16.48 rubles per share, and the inclusion of Yandex's shares in the Moscow Exchange value creation index from July 30.
Next Week's Calendar: The Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Big Tech
- Tuesday, July 28 — Conference Board consumer confidence index in the U.S.
- Wednesday, July 29 — Inflation in Australia; the Fed's decision on rates (current range 3.50–3.75%) and a press conference with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The meeting will take place without updated macro forecasts and a dot plot, thus placing all emphasis on the wording of the statement. Reports from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META).
- Thursday, July 30 — GDP for Germany and the Eurozone, the Bank of England's decision, inflation in Germany, U.S. GDP for the second quarter and PCE deflator, consumer inflation in Japan. Reports from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN).
- Friday, July 31 — PMI indices for China, Bank of Japan's decision (current rate 0.50%), and preliminary inflation for the Eurozone.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- The "Oil-Yields-Fed" Nexus. The rise of Brent above $100, coupled with record-low unemployment claims, has shifted market expectations towards a tightening stance from the Fed. For investors, this poses a risk of reevaluating long bonds and growth companies.
- Capital Expenditures as a New Assessment Criterion. The reaction to Alphabet’s report demonstrated that the market has transitioned from rewarding the scale of AI investments to demanding proof of returns. Reports from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will serve as a decisive test of this thesis.
- The Tariff Factor. Tariffs of 10–12.5% on 99.4% of U.S. imports necessitate a reassessment of profitability models for retail, consumer products, and industrial importers.
- Russian Assets. The 14% rate and forecast for an average rate of 10.5–12.5% in 2027 support long OFZs and leveraged issuers — developers, retail, transport. A limiting factor remains the season of dividend ex-dates and weak index dynamics since the beginning of July.
- Seasonality. August marks the onset of the historically weakest three-month period for U.S. equities, amplifying arguments for reducing leverage and checking hedging positions prior to Monday’s market opening.
Saturday, July 25, 2026, is a day without trading, but not without conclusions. The global market environment enters the final week of the month with three concurrent sources of risk: the geopolitical premium in oil, the tariff restructuring of trade flows, and the reevaluation of the artificial intelligence economy. It is advisable for investors to utilize this pause for scenario planning in each of these areas and to identify response levels in advance — before the Fed's decision and Big Tech earnings set the market tone for August.
