Economic Events and Corporate Reports on July 26, 2026: Fed, Big Tech, Oil

Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting for July 26, 2026: Markets Closed, but the Agenda for the Week is Set — Fed Decision, Bank of Japan Meeting, Quarterly Results from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Shell, and Rio Tinto, and the Response of the Moscow Exchange Index to the Key Rate Cut by the Central Bank of Russia

Sunday, July 26, 2026 — a day without trading and macroeconomic statistics. Global markets are closed, the economic calendar is empty, and Russia celebrates Navy Day. However, for investors, this is not a pause but a window for preparation: ahead lies one of the busiest weeks of the year. Economic events and corporate reports for July 27–31 include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, a meeting of the Bank of Japan, the release of the U.S. GDP for the second quarter and the PCE deflator, as well as quarterly results from companies that represent a significant portion of the S&P 500 capitalization. The ongoing conflict around Iran serves as a backdrop, keeping Brent oil prices near the triple-digit mark.

Results of the Trading Week on Global Markets

The week ended mixed and overall negatively. On Friday, July 24, the S&P 500 added a symbolic 0.05% to close at 7,411.98 points, the Dow Jones increased by 0.46% to 51,947.25, while the Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.64% to 24,975.82. Over the course of the five sessions, all three U.S. indices ended in the red, with the Nasdaq losing about 2%.

• The main shock of the week was the sell-off on Thursday when the "Magnificent Seven" collectively lost approximately $800 billion in market capitalization.
• Alphabet decreased by about 7%, and Tesla fell by 14%: both companies reported negative free cash flow for the quarter amid a sharp increase in investments in AI infrastructure.
• Intel lost nearly 8% on Friday, despite reporting better-than-expected results — the market punishes spending rather than revenue.
• Apple, on the contrary, gained about 3.5% and supported the Dow by reaching historic highs earlier in July.

Meanwhile, the earnings season is going strong: of the first 95 companies to report in the S&P 500, about 88% exceeded profit forecasts. The divergence between strong numbers and weak stock reactions is a key signal for investors: the market is re-evaluating not profit but capital expenditures.

Oil, Gas, and Gold: Geopolitical Premium in Prices

Commodity markets remain the primary channel for transmitting geopolitical risk into the global economy. On Friday, Brent decreased by about 4% to close around $97 per barrel — its largest single-day decline since late June, but weekly prices rose over 12%.

1. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, and some export flows from the Persian Gulf have been redirected.
2. The attacks by Houthis on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea opened a second front of logistical risks and increased freight rates.
3. Gold remains near historical highs (around $4,100 per ounce), reflecting sustained demand for safe-haven assets.
4. The margin for diesel and jet fuel refining in Europe remains abnormally high amid low supplies.

Central Banks: Fed, Bank of Japan, and Central Bank of Russia

The week of July 27–31 will be a pivotal week for monetary policy.

• The U.S. Federal Reserve holds a meeting on July 28–29. The target rate is currently in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, and no new forecasts (dot plot) will be published. Futures indicate a 64% probability of maintaining the rate and about 35% for a 25 basis point increase. The main market event will be the press conference of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.
• The Bank of Japan meets on July 30–31 and will publish its quarterly Outlook Report. The rate, following June's increase, stands at 1.0%; consensus anticipates a pause, but comments on inflation could significantly shift the yen's course.
• The Central Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% per annum on July 24. This marks the tenth consecutive reduction and the fifth in 2026. The regulator provided a neutral signal, noting rising inflation expectations and accelerating prices for fuel and food products amidst stable inflation in the range of 4–5% year-on-year.

Corporate Reports of the Week: U.S. and S&P 500 Index

The reporting calendar for American public companies for the upcoming week is the busiest of the quarter:

• Wednesday, July 29: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Public Storage, Humana, Boston Scientific, Biogen, Cognizant.
• Thursday, July 30: Amazon, Apple, Mastercard, Valero Energy, Regeneron, Exelon, Xcel Energy.
• Throughout the week: Procter & Gamble, General Dynamics, L3Harris, Johnson Controls, Amphenol, Garmin, Old Dominion Freight Line, Visa, Coca-Cola, PayPal.

The key question for investors is not revenue but the capital expenditures of hyperscalers and the dynamics of cloud segments Azure and AWS.

Europe: Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, and Energy Profit Discrepancy

European earnings for the second quarter show a collective profit growth of about 17%, but nearly all of this increase is attributed to the energy sector. TotalEnergies reported an adjusted net income of approximately $6 billion (+67% YoY), while Repsol reported €1.84 billion compared to €598 million a year earlier. For industries, airlines, and consumer sectors, oil presents an expense.

This week, AstraZeneca and Vodafone report (July 27), Barclays, GSK, Unilever (July 28), Airbus, Rio Tinto, Standard Chartered, Reckitt, Glencore (July 29), Shell, Lloyds, Rolls-Royce, BAE Systems, Anglo American, British American Tobacco, London Stock Exchange Group (July 30), NatWest, IAG, ITV, Taylor Wimpey (July 31). The composite PMI for Germany returned to growth in July (51.2), which slightly improves the outlook for the Eurozone.

Asia: Nikkei 225, Yen, and Chinese Demand

The Japanese market remains near record levels, and a weaker yen continues to support exporters: several investment houses have revised their USD/JPY forecasts towards further depreciation of the Japanese currency. For Asian markets, the key considerations will be the Bank of Japan's decision, production and inflation data from Tokyo, and the response of Chinese metallurgists and oil refiners to rising raw material prices.

Russia: Moscow Exchange Index after Rate Cut

The Russian stock market saw its first weekly gain in nearly twenty weeks. The Moscow Exchange Index, which dipped below 2,100 points before the Central Bank's meeting, recovered after the rate decision. Friday's leaders included Rusagro (+35.7% on corporate news), Moscow Exchange (+5.7%), MMK (+4.9%), En+ Group (+4.2%), along with PhosAgro, Yandex, and NLMK.

Corporate event calendar on MOEX:

• July 27 — Norilsk Nickel: production results for the first half of 2026.
• July 28 — TGK-1 and 'All Instruments': operational results for 6 months.
• July 29 — Akron: annual shareholders meeting on dividends (235 rubles per share).

From the already published results: Novatek's net income under IFRS for the first half of the year fell to 218.6 billion rubles. A separate factor is the extension of the OFAC license for negotiations on the sale of Lukoil's international assets until August 22, 2026.

Macroeconomic Statistics of the Week

1. U.S. GDP for the second quarter (first estimate) — Thursday.
2. Core PCE deflator for June — a key inflation gauge for the Fed.
3. Personal income and spending of Americans, jobless claims.
4. Consumer confidence indices in the U.S. and business sentiment in the Eurozone.
5. Inflation in Tokyo and industrial production in Japan.

Takeaways for the Day: What to Watch for Investors

1. Capital expenditures matter more than revenue. The reaction to reports from Alphabet and Tesla showed that the market is willing to punish aggressive investments in AI even with strong operational results. Reports from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple will be a test of whether these investments convert into growth in cloud revenues.
2. Double risk from oil. Brent near $100 presents both support for oil and gas exporters (including the Russian market) and an inflationary tax for industry, transport, and consumers. It's worth assessing which side of this balance your portfolio is on.
3. Fed's decision without dot plot. The absence of new forecasts increases the significance of the statement's wording and the press conference. The scenario of an interest rate hike, which the market estimates at about one-third, is underappreciated in the valuations of risk assets.
4. New U.S. tariffs. Tariffs implemented in the range of 10–12.5% for major trading partners will gradually reflect on the margins of importers and in inflation statistics this fall.
5. Russian market: easing cycle continues. A key rate cut to 14% lowers financing costs and enhances the attractiveness of equities versus deposits, but the Central Bank's neutral signal and rising inflation expectations require caution in long OFZs.
6. Weekend homework. Check the diversification across regions and sectors, the share of defensive assets, and stop-loss levels before the market opens on Monday — the week promises increased volatility.