The Key Economic Events of October 24, 2025: The Central Bank of Russia's Rate Decision, U.S. Inflation, Global PMI, and Earnings Reports from Major Corporations Like Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, General Dynamics, and Others. Analysis and Forecast for Investors.
Introduction. Investors from the CIS begin Friday, October 24, with a focus on key economic events and fresh company reports. The business tone is set by PMI data from around the globe, inflation statistics, and key central bank decisions. Throughout the day, preliminary PMI indices will be released in several major economies—from Australia and Japan to Germany and the U.S. Additionally, investors will evaluate crucial macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. inflation for September, and monitor the Central Bank of Russia's key rate decision. Simultaneously, the corporate earnings season continues: results are being reported by both American public companies from the S&P 500 and major corporations from Europe and Asia. Below is a detailed overview of economic events and corporate releases by region, along with their potential impact on the stock market and investors' portfolios today.
Asia and Australia: PMI and Inflation Indicators
The Asia-Pacific region began the morning with the release of business activity data. Australia released preliminary PMI indices for the manufacturing and services sectors for October (S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, Composite PMI) at 02:00 MSK. Japan reported on consumer price dynamics: the CPI index for September was released at 02:30 MSK. Inflation in Japan remains under close observation, given the policies of the Bank of Japan. Following that, at 03:30 MSK, preliminary estimates of Japanese PMIs for October were released—indicators of business activity in manufacturing and services. These figures will help understand whether Japan's economic recovery is being sustained in light of recent stimulus measures and a weaker yen.
Furthermore, at 08:00 MSK, the October PMIs for India were published. Investors view Indian business activity indicators as a barometer of the health of one of the largest emerging economies. Market expectations suggest that India’s PMI will remain in the growth zone (>50), reflecting robust demand and market forecasts for continued expansion in the private sector.
On the corporate front in Asia, there are relatively few earnings releases for October 24. However, it is worth noting the report from one of India’s largest banks—ICICI Bank, which will publish its results for the second financial quarter (July-September) and could set the tone for the financial sector in emerging markets. In Japan, the earnings season is just gaining momentum: many companies from the Nikkei 225 will present half-year results in the coming weeks, and today’s releases from Japanese corporations are sparse. Thus, Asian markets are primarily reacting to macro statistics. In the morning on Friday, Asian stock indices demonstrated mixed dynamics: investors are weighing strong PMI data (for example, confident growth in Australia's services activity) against subdued inflation in Japan, which collectively supports the narrative of a gradual economic recovery in the region.
Europe: Business Activity and Corporate Reports
European investors are focused on a series of preliminary PMIs for the major economies of the region for October. In Germany, the business activity index (HCOB Manufacturing/Services PMI) was released at 10:30 MSK. The preliminary figures will show whether the improvement noted in September has continued, when overall business activity in the Eurozone grew at its highest rates in 16 months. Analysts expect German PMIs to remain close to September levels, indicating a forecast of gradual stabilization in industry amid ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector. At 11:00 MSK, the composite PMI for the Eurozone was published—a key leading indicator for the region. Its dynamics will show whether the Eurozone is maintaining its growth momentum or facing a new slowdown. According to S&P Global forecasts, the September surge may continue, but investors are carefully observing how political uncertainty (such as recent events in France) impacts business confidence.
Almost simultaneously, at 11:30 MSK, PMI data for the UK were released. The British economy has previously shown signs of stagnation—September's PMI indicated a sharp slowdown in growth and a contraction in employment. The preliminary October index will show whether a downturn has been avoided. Alongside the PMI, retail sales data and consumer confidence indices (e.g., the GfK index) may also have been released in the UK, providing a more complete picture of the state of the economy. Persistently high inflation (the latest estimate is 3.8% YoY in August) remains a challenge for the Bank of England, so any signs of weakening business activity amid high inflation put the regulator in a difficult position.
The European corporate sector also offers several important reports. NatWest Group (NWG), one of the largest banks in the UK, published its results for Q3 2025 early in the morning (07:00 BST, 09:00 MSK). The bank reported increased lending and deposits and upgraded its revenue forecast, capitalizing on rising interest rates. CIS investors consider NatWest a barometer for the European banking sector—its margin and asset quality indicators set the tone for other bank stocks. In France, pharmaceutical giant Sanofi released its Q3 results; management discussed them on a morning call with analysts. Moderate revenue growth was expected due to demand for vaccines and new drugs. In Sweden, defense and aerospace conglomerate Saab AB released its Q3 2025 report—highlighting a surge in orders amid high geopolitical tension, the report was published at 07:30 CET, with a presentation at 10:00 CET.
Among other major European names reporting today is Italian oil and gas company ENI, whose Q3 results (released on October 24) reflect oil and gas price dynamics. Overall, across the Euro Stoxx 50 and other regional indices, the peak of quarterly corporate earnings reports occurs at the end of October—investors are evaluating the first results. Moderately positive reports from NatWest and Sanofi may support European markets; however, much will depend on overall market sentiment following the PMI releases. European stock indices opened today with mixed dynamics: PMIs were close to forecasts, and attention is shifting to corporate surprises. Analysts note that the outcomes of trading in Europe by the end of the week will be determined by the combination of these macro and micro factors.
Russia: Central Bank Decision and Corporate Results
The Russian market today is focused on the Central Bank of Russia meeting. At 13:30 MSK, the regulator will announce its decision on the key rate, and at 15:00 MSK, a press conference with the Central Bank management will commence. The current key rate stands at 17% annually, following a series of increases earlier in the year. In the last three meetings, the Central Bank of Russia has consistently lowered the rate (by 1 percentage point in June, 2 percentage points in July, and 1 percentage point in September), retreating from the peak level of 21% annually. However, the situation is now ambiguous: annual inflation has again exceeded 8%, and pro-inflationary risks have intensified (fuel price increases, VAT hikes slated for the new year, etc.). Analysts are divided in their forecasts: some expect the regulator will pause and maintain the rate at 17% to curb accelerating inflation and a cooling economy. Others anticipate a small reduction—between 0.25% and 0.5%, while the most daring predictions suggest a 100 basis point cut if there are signs of significant economic slowdown. For example, SberCIB officially expects the rate to remain at 17%, citing arguments for a wait-and-see position. The intrigue will remain until the announcement itself: the Central Bank has emphasized that its October decision is not predetermined and will consider fresh inflation and ruble exchange rate data.
The Russian stock market reacts to any signals from the regulator. In the morning, the MOEX Index fluctuates in anticipation: investors gauge the likelihood of a rate cut, which could support stock prices in the real sector but weaken the ruble, against the scenario where the rate remains at 17%, which would temporarily maintain yields on ruble-denominated instruments. Focus is on the banking sector—especially state-owned banks, as they are most sensitive to Central Bank decisions. VTB is set to publish its quarterly results today: the bank announced that it would release its Q3 2025 results specifically on October 24. This is a significant event for Moscow market investors; after VTB incurred losses last year due to sanctions, the market is looking for signs of recovering profitability. According to preliminary reports, the financial condition of major players, including Gazprom and Sberbank, remains stable, and investors expect VTB to demonstrate improvement in metrics (interest income, fees) as it adapts to new conditions.
Other corporate events in Russia on October 24 include news regarding dividends from oil and gas companies. The board of directors of Lukoil was scheduled to discuss interim dividends, but the meeting was canceled due to U.S. sanctions. This creates uncertainty for stocks in the oil and gas sector. Nevertheless, Thursday’s trading results showed an increase in the MOEX Index of nearly 0.9% due to a market revival after an extended decline. If the Central Bank of Russia meets investor expectations today (for example, signaling a softening of policy in the coming months or at least not tightening its rhetoric), Russian stocks may continue to recover. Analysts’ recommendations for investments in the local market emphasize selecting export-oriented securities (in case of a weaker ruble with a rate cut) while exercising caution with bonds whose prices have already factored in expected rate cuts.
The United States: Inflation, Business Activity, and Public Company Reports
In the second half of the day, attention will shift to American markets. At 15:30 MSK, a key indicator will be released—the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. This release is usually published earlier in the month; however, it has been delayed due to a recent government shutdown. Inflation data are crucial for understanding the Federal Reserve's future policy. Economists estimate that the September CPI may indicate inflation acceleration from 2.9% to approximately 3.1% YoY. Any value above the forecast could alarm the market: although the Fed has made its first pause in rate increases, it will need to maintain a firm tone if prices continue to rise. Against this backdrop, U.S. futures are fluctuating without a clear trend in the morning—investors are hesitant to open large positions pending the inflation data release.
In addition to inflation, at 16:45 MSK, the preliminary U.S. Composite PMI for October (S&P Global) will be published. In previous months, the U.S. outpaced other developed economies in growth rates, although a slight slowdown in business activity was observed in September. The October PMI will indicate whether the U.S. maintains its leadership. A figure around 50–51 points is expected, signaling slight growth. If the indicator unexpectedly falls below 50, it may intensify recession fears. However, some experts believe that the Fed's interest rate cuts (the first since last year, taking place earlier this fall) and expectations for further easing may support business activity—the PMI data will either confirm or refute this analysis.
At 17:00 MSK, additional reports from the U.S. will be released: the final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for October (along with household inflation expectations) and data on new home sales for September. The Michigan sentiment indicator is expected to remain around recent values—American consumers are relatively confident thanks to a strong labor market, though rising prices and political uncertainty (the prolonged budget shutdown, news of which is finally set to conclude this week) may slightly dampen expectations. New home sales are expected to show a modest decline following the summer surge, reflecting the impact of high mortgage rates on the real estate market. Together, all these indicators will provide a more comprehensive picture of the U.S. economy at the start of the fourth quarter.
Finally, today is particularly rich in earnings season in the U.S.—a number of major companies will publish quarterly results before the opening of the U.S. market (Friday Before Open). For investors, this is an opportunity to assess corporate earnings forecasts amid macroeconomic challenges. Below are key companies from the S&P 500 index and others reporting on October 24 before the New York market opens (reporting period—Q3 2025):
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Procter & Gamble (PG) – a global leader in consumer goods. Expected quarterly earnings are $1.90 per share with revenue around $22.17 billion. Investors will look for signs of resilient demand for consumer products and the impact of cost inflation on margins. P&G is traditionally seen as an indicator of the state of the U.S. consumer sector.
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HCA Healthcare (HCA) – the largest operator of private hospitals in the U.S. The consensus forecast for earnings is around $5.65 per share, with revenue of $18.56 billion. HCA's results will reveal whether hospital occupancy rates remain high and if the company has managed to control cost increases. The healthcare sector is under scrutiny from investors in light of post-pandemic recovery.
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General Dynamics (GD) – a defense contractor and industrial conglomerate. Expected earnings are $3.73 per share with revenue of approximately $12.53 billion. Given the global increase in defense spending, markets expect strong results from GD and potentially an update to earnings forecasts (the backlog of defense equipment orders is growing). Defense stocks have outperformed the market in recent months due to high geopolitical risks.
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Illinois Tool Works (ITW) – a diversified industrial company (equipment and components). Expected metrics: $2.69 earnings per share, with revenue around $4.09 billion. For ITW, signs of demand from the automotive and construction sectors are vital. Investors will pay attention to market forecasts from management by segment and region—as any signals of industrial demand slowdown could impact the entire industrial sector.
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Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) – a consulting and engineering firm, a major contractor for the U.S. government. Expected earnings are around $1.50 per share and revenue of $2.99 billion. Focus will be on comments regarding budget expenditures on defense and technology, as Booz Allen benefits from rising IT spending in the public sector.
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Gentex Corp (GNTX) – a manufacturer of electronic components for vehicles (e.g., mirrors with built-in electronics). Expected earnings are $0.47 per share, with revenue of approximately $669 million. Gentex's results will serve as an indicator for the automotive sector: the company supplies components globally, and its report will reflect demand for cars and supply chain issues.
In addition to those mentioned, several mid-sized financial companies will also report before the U.S. market opens. Among them are Flagstar Bank (FLG), Southside Bancshares (SBSI), Stellar Bancorp (STEL), and Virtus Investment Partners (VRTS). These regional banks and investment firms will provide fresh data on lending conditions, trading results in financial markets, and asset management. While none of them are considered giants, collectively their results will signal the health of the financial sector at the local level—especially crucial is whether deposit flows and margins have stabilized after earlier waves of concern surrounding U.S. regional banks this year.
On Friday morning, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are trading cautiously: uncertainty looms before the inflation data and a torrent of earnings reports. Yesterday's trading results on Wall Street were mixed—while the Nasdaq fell due to disappointing results from major tech companies earlier in the week, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 managed to stay positive buoyed by optimism in more traditional sectors. Overall, analysts estimate that S&P 500 companies' earnings could grow around 9% YoY in the third quarter, better than expectations at the quarter's start. This fuels market forecasts of a soft landing for the economy. However, investors are "tired of looking at reports through a political smoke screen," media note, hinting that geopolitics and fiscal disputes (shutdowns, sanctions) often distract from fundamental metrics. As such, today’s focus is on pure economic data and the actual earnings of companies.
The main events of the day for investors—a combination of macroeconomic data and corporate news—will set the tone for global markets in the final trading day of the week. The preliminary PMIs from Europe and Asia have already outlined the contours: the global economy is showing mixed signals, continuing to grow in some areas while slowing in others. The Central Bank of Russia’s rate decision will be the central event of the day in the local market, determining sentiment on the bond market and the ruble exchange market. In the U.S., inflation data could either calm investors (if CPI comes in at forecast levels) or raise concerns over the prospect of a longer period of high Fed rates. Mass corporate earnings for the quarter provide important benchmarks: positive surprises can support the stock market, while misses relative to expectations may heighten volatility. CIS investors are advised to closely monitor the analyst reports released today: consensus forecasts and management comments (especially in corporate reports from the U.S. and Europe) will help recalibrate strategies. The balance of risks and opportunities is currently thin, so the market forecast for the near term will depend on whether today’s key expectations will be met. In conclusion, as investors assess trading outcomes and draw conclusions, diversification by regions and sectors remains a prudent approach, and the major news from October 24 serves as a reminder that global investments require consideration of multiple factors—from interest rates to the earnings of each individual company.
