Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Thursday, January 29, 2026: Central Bank Rates of Brazil and South Africa, Reports from Apple and Visa

Key Economic Events and Corporate Earnings Reports for Thursday, January 29, 2026: Central Bank Decisions, Macroeconomic Statistics from the US, Eurozone, and South Africa, as well as Earnings Reports from Major Public Companies Worldwide. An Overview for Investors.

Thursday presents a busy agenda for global markets. Focus will be on the interest rate decisions from the central banks of Brazil and South Africa, which will indicate the sentiment of regulators in emerging markets amidst inflation dynamics. In the Eurozone, consumer confidence and inflation expectations indices will be released, complemented by a series of corporate earnings reports from major companies in the region. In the US, the key events of the day will be the financial results of tech giant Apple and payment system Visa (published after market close), while during the day, investors will analyze weekly labor market data and trade balance figures. The energy sector will keep an eye on the natural gas inventory report in the US due to the winter heating season. Investors should assess all signals collectively: the soft tone of central banks in emerging markets ↔ bond yields and EM currencies dynamics ↔ results from Apple and Visa ↔ risk appetite in the stock markets (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, etc.).

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 00:30 — Brazil: Central Bank interest rate decision.
2. 13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer Confidence Index (January).
3. 13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer Inflation Expectations Index (January).
4. 16:00 — South Africa: Central Bank (SARB) interest rate decision.
5. 16:30 — US: Initial Jobless Claims (Week).
6. 16:30 — US: Trade Balance (November).
7. 18:00 — US: Industrial Orders Volume (November).
8. 18:30 — US: Natural Gas Inventories (Week, EIA).

Emerging Markets: Decisions from Brazil and South African Central Banks

• Brazil: The Central Bank (Copom) is likely to keep rates around 15%, the highest in the past 20 years. Inflation in Brazil has slowed (around 4–5% y/y) but remains above the target, hence the regulator maintains a hawkish tone. Markets will be looking for hints of policy easing: many expect a signal for the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle by March if inflation expectations continue to fall. Any change in rhetoric could impact the Brazilian real and asset valuations.
• South Africa: The South African Reserve Bank's meeting occurs amid inflation approaching a new target of 3%. In December, consumer prices increased by +3.6% y/y, and the rand strengthened at the end of 2025. The SA Reserve Bank has already begun a cautious rate-cutting cycle, and the current decision presents a delicate choice between maintaining the rate near 6.75% or a slight reduction of 0.25%. Analysts are evenly split in their forecasts. Easing policy would support economic growth and the local equity index; however, some committee members may prefer to wait for additional data (new CPI, budget release in February) for confidence. Investors will be keenly listening to the SARB Governor's comments: signals of further rate cuts could stimulate demand for South African bonds and affect the rand's currency valuation.

Eurozone: Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations

• Consumer Confidence: The European Commission will publish the consumer confidence index for January. The indicator is expected to remain in negative territory (around -13 to -15 points), reflecting a persistent cautious sentiment among households in the Eurozone. With stable low unemployment and decreasing inflation, a moderate improvement in sentiment would bolster hopes of maintaining consumer spending levels. However, the deep negative index suggests that Europeans are still inclined toward a saving behavior, which could dampen retail sales.
• Inflation Expectations: Simultaneously, consumer inflation expectations will be disclosed. In December, expectations for the coming year and beyond fell closer to ~4%, within the acceptable range around the ECB's target. If the January survey indicates further decreases in expected inflation, it would be a positive sign for the European Central Bank—confidence that price pressures are being brought under control is growing. Conversely, an unexpected rise in inflation expectations could strengthen the ECB's hawkish stance. The index results will impact the euro and market sentiment in Europe: lower expectations could support European stocks amid hopes for a softer monetary policy.

US: Labor Market and Industry

• Initial Jobless Claims: The weekly initial jobless claims figure in the US remains near multi-year lows (~200–210 thousand claims). This confirms the labor market's resilience: American employers are not rushing to lay off staff even amid rising Fed rates. If new data for the week ending January 24 again shows a figure below ~220 thousand, it will strengthen investors' belief in the economy's robustness. However, a rise in claims above expectations may signal the beginning of slackening in the labor market, potentially affecting Fed policy in the future.
• Trade Balance (November): Data on US foreign trade for November will help assess the contribution of net exports to GDP growth in Q4. In October, the US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to ~$29 billion—the lowest level since 2009—thanks to a sharp rise in exports (including gold) and a decrease in imports. If the trend of keeping the deficit at a low level continued in November, it would support expectations for a positive contribution from external trade to economic growth. Conversely, an expanded deficit could indicate a recovery in domestic demand (rising imports) and diminish the support from exports. Special attention will be to the dynamics of industrial goods and energy exports, as well as the import flow of consumer goods during the holiday season.
• Industrial Orders (November): The report on new orders in the manufacturing sector (Factory Orders) will show activity in the US manufacturing sector at the end of the year. An increase in the indicator is expected after a downturn in October, largely due to the aerospace sector: earlier reports indicated that orders for durable goods surged by ~5% m/m in November, supported by a high volume of aircraft contracts. An increase in orders signals sustained investment demand from businesses, which is positive for industrial players (Boeing, Caterpillar, etc.). Conversely, disappointing orders indicating a decline could point to companies' caution amid high rates and might amplify discussions around the risk of an industrial recession.

Energy Market: Natural Gas Inventories (EIA)

• The US Department of Energy will present its weekly EIA report on natural gas inventories for the last week. Currently, gas stocks are decreasing seasonally due to winter heating demand. Analyst forecasts expect a significant withdrawal—possibly around 120–150 billion cubic feet for the week, which aligns with multi-year average levels for the end of January. If the actual reduction in gas stocks exceeds expectations, it could drive prices up in spot markets (especially in the US and Europe). On the contrary, a moderate volume of withdrawal or mild weather keeping demand in check may lead to further price decreases for gas. Traders in the energy sector will closely monitor whether current stock levels are sufficient for the remaining winter and whether there’s a risk of fuel shortages.

Earnings Reports: Pre-Market (BMO, US and Asia)

• Samsung Electronics & SK Hynix (South Korea): the Asian tech sector sets the tone in the morning as two major memory manufacturers report strong results for Q4 2025. Samsung Electronics reported a record operating profit, nearly tripling it y/y amid a boom in AI-related demand and a recovering semiconductor market. SK Hynix also returned to profitability after a downturn in the previous year, thanks to rising memory chip prices (DRAM/NAND) and a resurgence in data center orders. Investors will evaluate the Korean companies' comments on demand prospects for 2026: the continuation of the chip cycle on the rise will support the global tech sector, while warnings about market oversaturation or price declines could cool the appetite for semiconductor manufacturers' stocks.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT): the American defense giant will present its report before the US market opens, showcasing results for Q4 and the entirety of 2025. Expectations for Lockheed are positive: global military budget growth and demand for high-tech weapons (F-35 fighter jets, missile defense systems, etc.) are contributing to an increased order backlog. Investors will focus on the size of the contract backlog and management's outlook for 2026. Particular attention will be paid to margins and cost management amidst inflation, as well as comments on supply chains. Stable or exceeding expectations metrics at Lockheed Martin will support the entire defense sector, while a weak forecast may trigger profit-taking in defense stocks that rose last year.
• Mastercard (MA): one of the leading payment systems globally will report in the morning, providing data for Q4 2025. Sustained profit growth is anticipated amid high transaction volumes: the holiday shopping season and increased tourist flows (cross-border payments) should drive revenue. Investors will analyze the dynamics of Gross Dollar Volume, transaction growth, and segment performance (e.g., B2B payments). Comments on consumer spending trends—whether a slowdown is observable amidst higher rates and prices—will also be critical. Any signals from Mastercard indicating slowing activity or rising costs (e.g., due to new security technologies and competition) could affect shares of Visa, American Express, and the banking sector.
• Honeywell (HON): the industrial conglomerate from the Dow Jones index will present quarterly results and its forecast for 2026. Honeywell has a balanced business—from aerospace equipment and automation systems to energy and digital segments. Revenue growth is expected, particularly in the aerospace segment, given high demand for aircraft parts and maintenance services amid the recovery of passenger transport. Investors are also interested in orders within the automation and climate equipment segments (influence from industrial modernization projects and “green” initiatives). The company has already hinted at cost optimization, so markets will be watching operational margin levels. If Honeywell confirms a confident forecast for 2026 (profit growth, stable margins), it will strengthen confidence in the US industrial sector. Weak segments or cautious guidance, conversely, could amplify concerns about a slowing economy.
• Caterpillar (CAT): the world leader in construction and mining equipment will report before the trading begins. Caterpillar acts as a barometer of global investment activity in infrastructure, construction, and resource extraction. Results are likely to reflect high sales of construction equipment in North America (due to infrastructure projects in the US) and steady demand for mining equipment (supported by high raw material prices in 2025). Focus will be on order dynamics from China and emerging markets: a slowdown in the construction sector in China or other regions could affect CAT's Asian sales. Additionally, investors will evaluate finished goods inventory levels and order sizes (book-to-bill) to understand if excessive inventory is building up at dealers. A strong Caterpillar report with a positive demand outlook will signal the resilience of the global economy, whereas cautious commentary (e.g., on rising rates squeezing builders) could dampen enthusiasm in the industrial segment.

Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC, US)

• Apple (AAPL): the highlight of the day is Apple's report for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year (fourth calendar quarter of 2025), which will be released after 23:00 MSK. Investors expect strong results for the holiday quarter: demand for flagship devices is traditionally high at year-end. Focus will be on iPhone 17 sales and particularly dynamics in China: competition in the Chinese smartphone market has intensified, and any signs of slowing demand or price pressure there will be scrutinized. Additionally, Apple continues to bet on growth in its services segment (App Store, subscriptions, media)—accelerating service revenue growth enhances the business's margin profile. Metrics on iPad and Mac following downturn periods, as well as the success of new products (e.g., mixed reality headset, if launched) are also vital. Margin performance is under close observation: the company previously warned about the impact of a strong dollar and chip costs. If Apple exceeds earnings expectations and provides a confident outlook, it could support the entire tech sector and potentially push the Nasdaq and S&P 500 higher. However, even slight disappointment (e.g., weak sales forecast or margin compression) could provoke significant volatility and a wave of profit-taking in tech giant stocks.
• Visa (V): the leading global payment network will also report after the US market closes, presenting results for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year. Investors view Visa, like Mastercard, as an indicator of global consumer spending. Sustained revenue growth is expected, driven by an increase in transaction volumes. There is particular interest in cross-border transaction data, reflecting international tourism and online commerce: 2025 saw a recovery in travel, which could positively impact Visa's fees. Management is likely to highlight macro factors' influence: inflation (increases nominal transaction volumes), interest rates (which may curb credit spending), and competition from fintech startups. Investors will assess Visa's forecast for 2026: maintaining double-digit profit and revenue growth would be reassuring. Any mentions of slowing consumer activity, regulatory tightening (e.g., limiting fees), or technological risks could lead to a short-term decline not only in Visa stocks but also throughout the financial sector.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50: Europe on January 29 is rich in earnings reports from blue-chip companies. Several heavyweights of the Euro Stoxx 50 index are presenting their reports, including SAP (the largest software developer in the EU), pharmaceutical giants Roche and Sanofi, as well as banks (Deutsche Bank, Nordea) and industrial leaders (ABB and Siemens Energy). These releases will set the tone for the European market: for example, strong results from SAP regarding its cloud business or a positive profit forecast from Roche could support Euro Stoxx 50's growth, whereas disappointments from banks or the industry could heighten investor caution. Additionally, statistical data from the European Commission (consumer confidence, inflation expectations) will influence the retail and financial sectors in the EU. Overall, European investors will balance internal factors (corporate earnings) and external contexts (monetary decisions in Brazil/South Africa, evening US tech earnings reports).
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): corporate news from Japan will capture attention in the Asian region. Major Japanese manufacturers have reported quarterly results: for example, Hitachi (a diversified technology conglomerate) and Keyence (a global leader in industrial automation) reported profits. The trends they demonstrate are important for understanding the state of the industry: growth in orders for equipment and electronics indicates healthy capital investments in the economy. If Japanese companies report results better than expectations, the Nikkei 225 will receive support, especially in the electronics and machinery segments. Additionally, investors in Asia will consider the reports from Samsung and SK Hynix: success from Korean chipmakers may positively impact the stocks of Japanese component suppliers (Tokyo Electron, Advantest). External factors—such as stable yen rates and news from China—also complete the trading outlook in Tokyo.
• MOEX (Russia): on January 29, there will be no financial report releases from leading issuers in the Russian market, so the dynamics of the Moscow Exchange index will primarily be determined by external factors. In the morning, sentiment will be set by the Asian session (response to Brazil/South Africa decisions and Samsung reports), while in the afternoon, it will be affected by the situation on European exchanges. Additional influence will come from oil and gas prices: after EIA data on energy inventories, volatility may occur in the oil and gas sector. The Russian ruble remains relatively stable due to high oil prices and revenue sales by exporters, so the currency factor is currently neutral for the stock market. The absence of internal drivers means that investors on MOEX will rely on the overall sentiment: a rise in risk appetite in global markets could push the index up, while negative sentiment from external markets (e.g., a drop in Nasdaq following the Apple report) may lead to cautious sentiment and profit-taking by local participants.

Day Summary: What Investors Should Watch

1. Emerging Market Central Banks: are Brazil and South Africa signaling the start of a rate-cutting cycle? A dovish tone will support risk demand in emerging markets (bonds, stocks), while unexpected hawkish notes may locally strengthen currencies (real, rand) and cool appetite for EM assets.
2. Apple - a Technology Benchmark: Apple's report and forecast will define sentiments in the global tech sector. Strong sales and an optimistic outlook will provide positive momentum for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while weak figures could trigger sell-offs in tech stocks. It is crucial for investors to assess how consumers are responding to Apple's innovations and whether growth in more margin-rich services is maintaining.
3. Payment Demand and Consumption: the results from Visa (and morning Mastercard) serve as indicators of global consumer demand health. Increased transaction volumes and travel will affirm the economy's resilience despite expensive credit. However, if payment companies notice signs of spending slowing, it may heighten concerns about declining global consumption in 2026.
4. European and Asian Corporations: a block of earnings reports in Europe and Asia (SAP, Roche, Samsung, Hitachi, etc.) will demonstrate regional profit dynamics. Better-than-expected releases will provide momentum for local indices Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei 225, confirming that businesses are adapting to new conditions. However, a series of weak reports could increase volatility and shift investors' focus toward defensive assets.
5. US Macroeconomic Data: although the market has become accustomed to weekly statistics, a sudden spike in claims or sharp changes in trade balance/orders may affect expectations regarding Fed policy. Investors should observe whether the trend of “soft landing” for the economy persists: low layoffs, healthy production, and balanced trade will bolster confidence, whereas negative surprises will amplify discussions around recession risks.