Economic Events February 26, 2026 - ECB, Geneva Negotiations, and Dell, Zscaler, Duolingo Reports

Economic Events and Corporate Reports on Thursday, February 26, 2026: Geneva Negotiations, ECB Head Speech, US Unemployment Data, EIA Natural Gas Inventory and Reports from Dell, Zscaler, Duolingo, CoreWeave

Thursday, February 26, 2026, unfolds at the intersection of three market drivers: geopolitics (Geneva as a platform for diplomatic contacts), monetary rhetoric (speech by the ECB head), and a set of statistics from the U.S. (initial jobless claims, Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, and EIA weekly natural gas inventory data). For global portfolios, this combination enhances sensitivity to rates and risk premiums, while providing important context for investors from the CIS regarding currencies, commodities, and risk appetite in developed markets.

In the corporate realm, the focus shifts to technological infrastructure and cybersecurity, digital platforms and media, as well as “crypto-equity” through miners. This makes it essential today to examine not just the headlines of reports but also the quality of revenue, profit margins, cash flows, management forecasts, and order dynamics.

Market Context: What Will Drive Prices Throughout the Day

• Rates and Inflation Expectations: Comments from the ECB can shift the yield curve in the eurozone and affect the euro, which quickly translates to risk appetite in global equities.
• U.S. Labor Market Data: Initial jobless claims serve as one of the most timely indicators of the cooling/resilience of the U.S. economy.
• Energy and Commodities: EIA weekly natural gas inventory figures often increase volatility in natural gas and related energy stocks, which is crucial for positioning within the commodities cycle.
• Geopolitical Premium: Any signals from Geneva can alter risk premiums in oil, currency baskets, and defensive assets.

Geopolitics: Geneva in the Spotlight

U.S. – Iran: Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are set to take place in Geneva. A key channel of influence for the markets revolves around expectations regarding sanctions regimes, supply availability, and the overall trajectory of tension in the Middle East. Even without immediate decisions, the market typically factors in changes to "tail risks" through oil, the dollar, and defensive assets.

Ukraine: The possibility of negotiations regarding Ukraine is also being discussed in Geneva. For investors, this primarily serves as a factor for risk premiums: the dynamics of European assets, the energy balance in the region, as well as sentiment in global indices, including the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50, through the “risk-on/risk-off” channel.

European Macroeconomics: ECB and Consumer Expectations

• Eurozone – ECB Head Christine Lagarde Speech (11:30 Moscow Time). The market will seek confirmation of “pauses” or readiness for adjustments, as well as assessments of inflation resilience in services and lending dynamics.
• Eurozone – Consumer Confidence (February) (13:00 Moscow Time). This indicator is crucial as an early signal regarding consumption and household spending propensity.
• Eurozone – Consumer Inflation Expectations (February) (13:00 Moscow Time). Shifts in expectations may influence ECB rhetoric and market pricing of rates.

For investors from the CIS, the European data block is particularly significant through the currency channel (euro against the dollar and a basket), as well as through its influence on European equities and credit spreads, which set the tone for global risk demand.

U.S.: Labor Market, Industrial Activity, and Natural Gas

• U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (16:30 Moscow Time). A strong/weak print alters expectations regarding the trajectory of rates and Treasury bond yields.
• U.S. – EIA Natural Gas Inventories (18:30 Moscow Time). The focus will be on seasonal dynamics of withdrawals/injections and deviations from expectations, impacting natural gas and the energy sector.
• U.S. – Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (February) (19:00 Moscow Time). This serves as a useful regional snapshot of industry and supply chain activity.

The combination of these releases often amplifies intraday movements in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, particularly if labor market data diverges from inflation and growth expectations.

Corporate Reports: Key Themes of the Day

Main interest today centers around three narrative threads:

1. Digital Infrastructure and AI Computing: demand for capacity, data center economics, capital expenditures, and long-term contracts.
2. Cybersecurity and Corporate Software: resilience of subscription models, customer retention, ARR/revenue growth, and profit margins.
3. Media and Consumer Brands: advertising market, content monetization, cost efficiency, as well as demand sensitivity to rates and household incomes.

Reports: U.S. – Pre-Market (Before Market Opens)

Companies releasing earnings before the U.S. market opens often set the tone for the entire day, especially if they provide strong/weak forecasts.

• D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): commercialization of quantum solutions, contracting pace, cash flows, and burn rate.
• Vistra (VST): energy generation, hedging, sensitivity to fuel prices and regulation.
• Celsius (CELH): sales and distribution dynamics, margins, competition in functional beverages.
• Eos Energy (EOSE): supply and production metrics, economics of energy storage projects.
• ACM Research (ACMR): demand for semiconductor equipment, revenue geography, order portfolio.
• Baidu (BIDU): advertising and cloud, monetization of AI services, dynamics in China.
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): streaming and content, advertising revenue, debt load, and synergies.
• Rackspace Technology (RXT): transformation of cloud business, churn, service margins, and balance sheet.
• Royal Bank of Canada (RY): quality of the loan portfolio, NIM, reserves, and investment banking.
• Compass Diversified (CODI): portfolio asset performance, cash flows, and debt sustainability.

Reports: U.S. – After Market Closes (After Close)

Releases after market close often result in price gaps in after-hours trading and carry volatility into the next session.

• CoreWeave (CRWV): AI infrastructure loading, revenue growth, CAPEX, and unit economics of capacities.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB): launch frequency, backlog, margin, and contract forecasts.
• Marathon Digital (MARA): cost of mining, hash rate, impact of bitcoin price on cash flow.
• Dell Technologies (DELL): demand for servers/storage, corporate budgets, margins, and drivers of the AI segment.
• OPKO Health (OPK): medical services/diagnostics, revenue, and margin sustainability.
• Innodata (INOD): data and AI contracts, revenue growth, and operational efficiency.
• SoundHound AI (SOUN): monetization of voice AI solutions, customer base growth, and gross margin.
• Zscaler (ZS): subscription dynamics, net retention, billings forecast, and margins.
• Duolingo (DUOL): subscriber growth, retention, ARPU, and marketing scalability.

Europe, Asia, and Russia: How to Integrate the Day into a Global Portfolio

While the primary wave of reports today emanates from the U.S., it is important for investors to maintain a "framework" regarding key regions:

• Euro Stoxx 50: reaction to ECB rhetoric and consumer expectations; sensitivity of banks and cyclicals to the yield curve.
• Nikkei 225: focus on global demand for technology and the yen exchange rate through the lens of U.S. yields.
• MOEX: for investors from the CIS, currency and commodity drivers (oil, gas, risk premium) are particularly relevant and may be amplified by news from Geneva and U.S. gas data.

The practical logic is straightforward: as "risk-off" increases, defensive sectors and quality balance sheets tend to outperform; when data and rhetoric support "risk-on," demand for growth stories rises, including software, AI infrastructure, and consumer platforms.

What Investors Should Pay Attention To: Checklist for February 26

1. 11:30 Moscow Time – ECB: any shift in Lagarde's emphasis could instantly alter movements in the euro and European indices.
2. 13:00 Moscow Time – Eurozone Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations: an important signal regarding the resilience of domestic demand.
3. 16:30 Moscow Time – U.S. Jobless Claims: a check on the "soft landing" scenario and rate expectations.
4. 18:30 Moscow Time – EIA Natural Gas Inventories: a volatility point for natural gas and the energy sector.
5. Reports After Closing: Dell, Zscaler, Duolingo, CoreWeave, and others – key releases for the technology, cybersecurity, and AI infrastructure sectors.
6. Geopolitical Headlines from Geneva: assess the impact on risk premiums and commodity assets, especially during times of heightened uncertainty.

In conclusion: Thursday combines macro and corporate triggers that can quickly alter rate expectations and risk appetite. Investors would do well to maintain discipline in risk management: monitor market reactions to the ECB speech and U.S. data while focusing on forecasts and the quality of revenue and cash flows in corporate reports. For the CIS audience, the additional focus should be on the impact of news on currencies and commodities, as these channels often amplify or dampen movements in global indices throughout the session.