Economic Events and Corporate Reports: Friday, July 31, 2026 - Bank of Japan's Decision, Eurozone Inflation, Reports from ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Norilsk Nickel
Friday, July 31, 2026, wraps up one of the most eventful weeks on the summer business calendar. The week saw the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting under the new Chair Kevin Warsh, the first estimate of U.S. GDP for the second quarter, and earnings reports from tech giants Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. The final act of the week is equally significant: investors are awaiting the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, preliminary eurozone inflation data for July, China’s business activity indices, as well as quarterly reports from oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron. In the Russian market, the spotlight is on Norilsk Nickel's semi-annual IFRS reporting. The last trading day of the month typically comes with portfolio rebalancing, adding to volatility in global stock markets.
Key Events of the Day: Brief Overview
- Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, updated forecast report, and press conference by Kazuo Ueda.
- Preliminary consumer price inflation (CPI) data for the eurozone for July.
- Official business activity indices (PMI) for China for July.
- Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q2, Chicago PMI, and final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the U.S.
- Q2 earnings reports: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Linde, Colgate-Palmolive, Eaton, Sony Group, Moderna, and others.
- Publication of Norilsk Nickel's consolidated IFRS report for the first half of 2026.
Bank of Japan: Interest Rates, Forecasts, and Yen at 40-Year Lows
The main macro event on Friday is the outcome of the two-day Bank of Japan meeting. The consensus suggests the key interest rate will remain at 1% per annum; however, the intrigue lies in the details: alongside the decision, the regulator will release its quarterly forecast report and Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference. The yen is hovering near four-decade lows—around 163–164 to the dollar—heightening pressure on the regulator and increasing the risks of currency interventions. Any hint at accelerating the rate hike cycle could trigger a strengthening of the yen, a winding down of global carry trade, and a correction in the Nikkei 225 index, which is sensitive to currency factors due to the high share of exporters.
Eurozone Inflation: A Test for the ECB's Course
At 12:00 GMT, Eurostat will present the preliminary estimate of consumer price growth for July. Following a drop in annual inflation to 2.8% in June, economists expect a rebound towards approximately 2.9–3.0% amid rising energy prices due to renewed tensions in the Middle East. Core inflation is forecast to remain around 2.4%. This release will be a key argument in discussions regarding a potential ECB rate hike at the meeting on September 10—markets are already pricing in a high probability of tightening. Stronger data will support the euro, but exert pressure on the Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX indices.
U.S. Statistics: Labor Costs and Consumer Sentiment
The American calendar on Friday is noticeably lighter than in previous days, but key data will not go unnoticed:
- Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q2—a significant indicator of wage pressure on inflation for the Fed.
- Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Chicago PMI) for July—an advance signal ahead of the ISM release in early August.
- Final estimate of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, including household inflation expectations.
Following the Fed's decision to maintain rates and the PCE deflator data released the day prior, these releases will clarify the trajectory of monetary policy for the fall amid inflation that still exceeds the target of 2%.
China: PMI Indices to Set the Tone for Commodity Markets
In the morning, the official business activity indices for China will be released for July—covering both the manufacturing and services sectors. Following a recent Politburo meeting outlining measures to support domestic demand, investors will be looking for confirmation of stabilization in the world's second-largest economy. The PMI data directly impacts oil prices, industrial metals, and shares of resource companies—from the mining sector in Europe to Russian exporters.
ExxonMobil and Chevron: A Day for Oil Giants on Wall Street
Before the U.S. markets open, quarterly results will be unveiled by ExxonMobil and Chevron. ExxonMobil has already given market guidance: Q2 profit may be approximately $5 billion higher than in Q1 due to a surge in oil prices (the average Brent price for the quarter was around $96.7 per barrel, +23% compared to Q1) and a recovery in refining margins. Investors will assess the resilience of the $20 billion annual share buyback program and the dividend history, which spans 43 consecutive years of payout growth. For Chevron, the focus will be on the integration of Hess assets, production in Guyana and the Permian Basin, as well as the ability to generate free cash flow amid volatile commodity prices.
Other Reports in the U.S.: Pharma, Consumer Sector, and Industry
In addition to the oil majors, several companies will report before the market opens:
- AbbVie—sales dynamics for the immunology portfolio Skyrizi and Rinvoq;
- Linde—indicator of global industrial health through demand for industrial gases;
- Colgate-Palmolive—pricing strategy and organic growth in the consumer sector;
- Eaton—orders related to electrification and data center construction;
- Dominion Energy, Cameco, Cboe Global Markets, T. Rowe Price, Moderna, AutoNation—a broad cross-section of sectors from energy to finance.
The earnings season is proving to be robust: according to FactSet estimates, S&P 500 companies' profits in Q2 grew by nearly 25% year-over-year—the second consecutive quarter with growth rates above 20%.
Asia and Europe: Sony and the Conclusion of the Peak Week
In Asia, a key corporate report will come from Sony Group—investors will evaluate the results of its gaming, music, and semiconductor segments, as well as the effect of a weak yen on the exporter's revenue. In Europe, the peak of the earnings season occurred mid-week with reports from heavyweights like EssilorLuxottica, GSK, and Rio Tinto; attention on Friday will shift to macro statistics and the final weekly dynamics of the Euro Stoxx 50 amid the inflation report.
Russian Market: Norilsk Nickel and the Wave of Semi-Annual Reports
On the Moscow Exchange, Norilsk Nickel will publish its consolidated financial statements according to IFRS for the first half of 2026 on July 31. The market will evaluate the impact of palladium, nickel, and copper prices, the dynamics of capital expenditures, and the company's debt burden—factors that will influence prospects for a return to dividend payouts. Additionally, the end of the month traditionally brings a wave of semi-annual reports based on RAS from a wide range of issuers in the MOEX index, as investors continue to digest results from Sberbank, Yandex, VTB, and Ozon released in the last days of July.
What Investors Should Watch on July 31, 2026
The last trading day of July combines several risk factors and opportunities. The day's priorities are as follows:
- Bank of Japan Rhetoric. Even with the rate hold, strong signals from Ueda could trigger a sharp strengthening of the yen and a global unwinding of carry trade—with implications for emerging market currencies and risky assets.
- Eurozone Inflation. A bounce above 3% will heighten expectations for a September ECB rate hike and may pressure European equities and bonds.
- ExxonMobil and Chevron Reports. Management comments on oil prices, drilling activity, and buybacks will set the tone for the entire energy sector, including Russian oil companies.
- China PMI. Weak data could signal risk for commodity currencies, metals, and exporters; strong data will support global risk appetite.
- End-of-Month Effect. Rebalancing by large funds may enhance movements in both directions, so increased volatility not associated with fundamental news is possible in the last hour of trading.
The combination of central bank decisions, inflation statistics, and reports from commodity giants makes July 31 a day when risk management discipline is more critical than the chase for short-term returns. A balanced approach, diversification across currencies and sectors, and attention to company forecasts for the second half will help investors navigate the month's close without unnecessary losses.
