Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting for November 15, 2025: China's Economic Slowdown, Results from JBS and Vallourec, Global Macro Trends, and Factors for Investors
Saturday brings relative calm to global markets: no significant macroeconomic releases are scheduled for November 15, and investors are utilizing the pause to reflect on the week's events. The focus is on signals of a slowing Chinese economy following a series of statistics and the closing notes of the corporate reporting season. On the corporate front, several international companies released results even at the end of the week, including the global meat processor JBS and the French pipe manufacturer Vallourec. In the absence of new data, it is crucial for investors to track connections: for instance, how the slowdown in China will impact commodity markets and exporters, and what individual company reports indicate about the state of various industries. The business environment of the day is calm, prompting market participants to concentrate on global trends and prepare for upcoming events next week.
Macroeconomic Background
- U.S.A: There are no significant releases on the American economic calendar for Saturday. U.S. markets are digesting previously released data and news: due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, the publication of key statistics (including CPI inflation and retail data) is delayed, leaving investors without clear benchmarks. As the main wave of reporting concludes, focus has shifted to external factors. The previous session on Friday ended with a sharp decline in stock indices (S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 1.7–2.3% — the largest daily drop in over a month), reflecting investor caution ahead of the weekend. In the absence of new macro data, market participants rely on corporate forecasts and global signals while monitoring the budget situation in Washington.
- Europe: European markets on November 15 also do not receive fresh statistics. EU countries are not releasing macroeconomic indicators on that day, so the news background is mainly shaped by external events. Investors in the Eurozone are evaluating the data released earlier in the week and ECB signals, while also paying attention to the slowdown in China, as cooling demand in Asia may affect European exporters (especially manufacturers of automobiles and luxury goods). New data on inflation and business activity is expected in Europe next week, making the current downtime suitable for reassessing positions. Overall, sentiment on European exchanges is neutral: without new drivers, the markets are following the dynamics of Wall Street and commodity prices.
- Asia: In the Asian region, Saturday passes without new reports—major economies do not publish figures on November 15. However, the data from China released the day before (see section below) is already impacting sentiment: the slowdown in industrial production and retail sales in the Middle Kingdom intensifies concerns over demand in the region. Japan is preparing to release data on its trade balance for October early next week, with a certain reduction in the deficit expected amid stabilizing exports. Attention among Asian investors is gradually shifting to upcoming indicators (including Japan's GDP for Q3) and potential stimuli from Chinese authorities. A wait-and-see position prevails in Asian markets: without new data, they are relying on existing information and currency dynamics, particularly the exchange rates of the yen and the yuan.
- Russia: The Russian macroeconomic calendar for November 15 is empty—neither Rosstat nor the Bank of Russia planned publications on that day. The day before, on November 14, important inflation figures were released: consumer price growth in October was only +0.5% month-on-month, while the annual inflation rate slowed to approximately 7.7% (down from about 8.0% the previous month), significantly below expectations. This inflation slowdown, following the recent unscheduled cut in the key rate by the Bank of Russia to 16.5% per annum, confirms a decline in price pressure in the economy. In the absence of new data over the weekend, Russian investors are drawing their attention to external factors—trends in oil and metal prices, the ruble's exchange rate, and the overall situation in global markets. The macroeconomic pause allows for assessing the effects of past regulatory measures and preparing for statistics due next week.
China's Economic Slowdown
- China's industrial production in October rose by only +4.9% year-on-year, significantly lower than September's +6.5%. This is the weakest growth rate in approximately 14 months, driven by weak external demand and the consequences of trade frictions with the U.S. Actual data were worse than the consensus forecast (+5.5%)—the unexpected deterioration in the manufacturing sector intensified concerns regarding the sustainability of China's economic recovery in the final quarter of the year.
- Retail sales in China saw an increase of +2.9% year-on-year in October compared to +3.0% the previous month. Despite hosting a large sales festival (Singles' Day on November 11), domestic consumer demand remains sluggish. The slowdown in retail growth indicates cautious household behavior: even significant discounts and stimulus measures have yet to result in accelerated consumption. Weak domestic demand, coupled with a decline in exports, is hindering economic growth in China and necessitating new support measures.
- The simultaneous weakening of two key drivers of China's economy—industry and consumption—highlights a dual challenge for Beijing. With exports suffering from external barriers and domestic spending growing slowly, authorities may resort to enhanced monetary or fiscal stimuli and structural reforms. For global markets, such news from China is critically important: the slowdown in the country is already reflecting in commodity prices (metals, oil) and impacting companies focused on the Chinese market (from German automakers to Asian electronics manufacturers). Investors worldwide need to monitor China's further steps, as the dynamics of the second-largest economy largely set the tone for global risk appetite.
Corporate Reports
- JBS N.V. – the world's largest meat processing company (Brazil) reported for the 3rd quarter. JBS's global revenue increased by +13% year-on-year, reaching $22.6 billion, but net income fell to $581 million (down from $693 million a year earlier). Business margins suffered mainly due to the situation in the U.S.: JBS's American division faced negative margins in the beef segment amid historically low cattle inventories and high prices for live cattle, significantly raising processing costs. The company notes that the current decline in the cattle breeding cycle in the U.S. will continue to pressure profits in the upcoming quarters. Meanwhile, JBS's operations in Brazil are demonstrating resilience: sales in Brazil have substantially increased due to exports (the country remains the largest exporter of beef) and rising domestic meat prices. However, even in its homeland, the company encountered temporary difficulties—due to a reported avian flu case in the spring, several countries imposed bans on poultry imports, forcing JBS to redirect shipments and lower prices on certain categories. Investors view JBS's report as an indicator of the state of the agribusiness sector: on one hand, global demand for proteins remains high (revenue growth), while on the other hand, costs and raw material inflation in some areas are constraining profitability. Attention will be focused on management's comments regarding the prospects for margin recovery in North America and whether additional efficiency measures are planned in the face of expensive raw materials.
- Vallourec S.A. – the French manufacturer of steel pipes for the oil and gas and industrial sectors reported results that met expectations. The EBITDA figure for the third quarter grew by +12.3% year-on-year to €210 million, exactly falling within the previously stated range of expectations from management (€195–225 million). Improved financial results were driven by increased volumes and average sales prices of pipe products, as well as the implementation of cost-saving programs. Notably, profitability in Vallourec's iron ore mining and forestry segments improved due to the expansion of its own mine, which also contributed to EBITDA. The company presented its first forecast for the entire year 2025: expected EBITDA in the range of €799–829 million, slightly below last year's level (€832 million). Vallourec essentially anticipates that profit in the fourth quarter will be comparable to the results of the third, continuing a stable trajectory. A significant event for Vallourec was the recent contract with Petrobras: the French company won the tender for pipe supply for marine projects for the Brazilian state oil company until 2029, worth up to $1 billion. According to management, the new contract will sharply increase Vallourec's share in orders from Petrobras compared to the previous contract in 2022 and will ensure a substantial revenue influx in the coming years. Vallourec's financial position has considerably strengthened: net debt decreased to €140 million, indicating successful implementation of the business recovery strategy. Vallourec's report is received positively: it reflects strong demand from oil and gas companies amid the revival of drilling projects and demonstrates the effectiveness of profitability enhancement measures.
Global Stock Indices
- U.S.A (S&P 500): At this point, virtually all companies in the S&P 500 index have already published quarterly results, so there are no new corporate drivers on November 15. The American market closed the week on a downbeat note: on Friday, Wall Street indices significantly declined as investors locked in profits following a series of reports amid macro uncertainty. The absence of fresh statistics (due to the paused activity of government agencies) increases the significance of external factors. Market participants in the U.S. are assessing the outcomes of the reporting season: the technology sector, in general, exceeded expectations (a strong report from Cisco, whose shares surged and raised forecasts for the year, is an example), while consumer and media giants reported more restrained results (Walt Disney disappointed with declining revenue, reflecting streaming and cinematic challenges). On Saturday, American exchanges are closed, and investors' focus shifts to external signals; any unexpected weekend news could set the tone for trading on Monday.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): The leading European index also lacks new reports from blue-chip companies on that day—the corporate reporting season in Europe is winding down. European exchanges will be guided by global news, as the internal European agenda for November 15 is empty. China's economic slowdown could also affect sentiment in Europe: particularly sensitive are Germany's industrial sector and French luxury goods exporters. Inflation in the Eurozone, meanwhile, continues to gradually decline, and investors hope that the European Central Bank will refrain from further rate hikes. In the absence of statistics, the current informational backdrop for the Euro Stoxx 50 is shaped by American and Asian developments: fluctuations in oil prices, euro exchange rate volatility, as well as news from the U.S. bond market could lead to movements in European indices at the start of the week.
- Japan (Nikkei 225): The Japanese stock index also does not receive fresh corporate impulses over the weekend: most companies have already reported their results for April–September 2025. Attention has now shifted to the macroeconomy: investors are awaiting Japan's GDP estimate for Q3 (publication is expected in the coming days) and external trade data. Preliminary signals indicate some improvement in Japan's exports, which could reduce the trade deficit (trade balance statistics will be released at the beginning of the week). However, the factor of a weak China raises concerns in Tokyo, as China is Japan's key trading partner. Without news on Saturday, Nikkei 225 will follow global trends: the exchange rate of the yen to the U.S. dollar, the dynamics of U.S. stock markets on Friday, and commodity prices will serve as benchmarks for Japanese investors ahead of the new week.
The Russian Market
At the Moscow Exchange in mid-November, the peak of the quarterly reporting season for Russian companies continues, although no major publications are scheduled for November 15 (Saturday) itself. Investors are assessing the results released during the week and preparing for a series of important releases expected before the end of the month. Many heavyweights of the market have already disclosed their financial performance for the first nine months of 2025: banks reported on interest dynamics and reserves, oil and gas companies on profits amid price trends, and metallurgists on the impact of global metal prices. The picture is mixed, but on the whole, corporate results reflect the adaptation of businesses to new conditions. At the same time, internal macro indicators have improved: a slowdown in inflation (~7.7% year-on-year in October) and relative stabilization of the ruble create more confident future expectations. Following the unexpected easing of monetary policy (the Central Bank of Russia lowered the key rate to 16.5% per annum), the cost of borrowing for companies is decreasing, which should support economic activity. Nevertheless, the dynamics of the Russian market still depend on external factors. Oil and gas prices remain key drivers for the MOEX index; current levels of energy prices provide high profits for the oil and gas sector, supporting Russian stocks. The geopolitical situation and sanctions risks also remain on the agenda: investors are cautiously monitoring news on these fronts. Overall, the Russian market is entering a new trading cycle after the weekend, hoping for a positive external backdrop and continued trends toward decreasing inflationary pressure domestically.
Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- China's Slowdown and Global Demand: Weak October data from China (decline in industrial production and retail growth rates) serve as the main macro newsmaker in recent days. It is crucial for investors to evaluate how the cooling of the world's second-largest economy will reflect on their portfolios. Negative effects are possible for export-oriented companies and commodity assets—prices for industrial metals and oil may remain under pressure due to reduced demand from China. In this light, markets are looking for signals from Chinese authorities regarding additional economic stimulus measures, and any such announcements over the weekend or early next week could significantly impact sentiment.
- Reporting Season: Sector Insights: The concluding phase of corporate reporting sheds light on the state of various economic sectors. The results from JBS highlight problems in the agribusiness sector—even with revenue growth, high costs are squeezing margins, particularly in regions with limited raw material supply. Meanwhile, Vallourec's report showed that the investment cycle in the oil and gas sector is on the rise: demand for industrial equipment (pipes) remains high, allowing companies in this segment to improve their financial performance. Investors should use such signals when rebalancing assets: consider which sectors are currently performing better (energy, infrastructure) or worse (consumer goods, media) and how sustainable these trends are in a slowing global economy.
- Absence of Data and Market Volatility: The pause in macro data releases over the weekend represents a calm before potential movements. The American shutdown continues to block the release of several indicators, increasing uncertainty: markets lack fresh benchmarks concerning inflation and consumption in the U.S. In such conditions, the role of rumors and external indicators (e.g., leading indices, data from private studies) increases. The sharp decline in U.S. stock markets on Friday indicates that investors are nervously reacting to any new information. At the beginning of the new week, volatility could rise as accumulated weekend news starts to impact prices. Market participants should be prepared for possible sharp movements—under conditions of information scarcity, markets may overreact to even minor events.
- Risk Management on a Quiet Day: The absence of trading on Saturday is not a reason to lose vigilance. Investors should use this weekend to review their portfolios and strategies. Now is an opportune moment to analyze fresh company reports and macro data, reassess target levels for positions and stop losses. It is wise to check if the fundamental premises for key assets have changed over the week. Additionally, it is helpful to review diversification and hedging: is the portfolio balanced between sectors and markets, and is there protection against potential declines (for instance, through safe assets or put options)? This weekend’s “homework” will prepare investors to enter the new week well-equipped and reduce the impact of unexpected shocks.
