Calendar for Tuesday, September 16, 2025: U.S. Retail Sales, Germany's ZEW, EU and U.S. Industry, Canada's CPI, API Oil Report; Corporate Results from Ferguson, Flux Power, and Evolution Petroleum. Key Highlights for CIS Investors.
Trade Negotiations and Geopolitics
The U.S. and China are signaling a warming of relations. During negotiations in Madrid, representatives from both countries announced a framework agreement that could potentially resolve the dispute surrounding the TikTok application, thereby easing tensions in the tech sector. A phone call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is also expected later this week to discuss further trade relations. Meanwhile, the U.S. and India are resuming trade dialogue, with talks taking place today in New Delhi following recent tariff hikes. Markets are hopeful that both parties will reach a compromise and avoid escalation of conflict. Overall, the geopolitical backdrop is moderately positive: the risk of full-scale trade wars has decreased, although regional conflicts and sanctions continue to temper excessive optimism.
Key Macroeconomic Releases (Moscow Time)
- 09:00 – United Kingdom: unemployment rate (June-August) and change in the number of jobless claims. A slight deterioration in these figures is expected, which could weaken the pound.
- 12:00 – Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September). A decline in this indicator is forecasted amid business caution due to the energy crisis and weak industrial growth.
- 15:30 – United States: retail sales for August (total and excluding automobiles). Forecast: +0.3% month-over-month (previous value: +0.5%), signaling potential cooling in consumer activity.
These statistical reports will set the tone for trading in financial markets. Special attention will be paid to U.S. data: the resilience of consumer spending (as indicated by retail sales) will influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy. Recall that inflation U.S. CPI slightly accelerated in August but remains near 3% year-over-year, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining a pause in rate hikes. European indicators (business confidence in Germany, labor market in the UK) will allow assessment of the state of the region's economy and may have a short-term impact on the euro and pound exchange rates. If actual figures deviate significantly from forecasts, heightened volatility may be expected in the currency market.
U.S. Company Reports (Ferguson, Flux Power, Evolution Petroleum, and Others)
The U.S. corporate calendar for September 16 includes several reports that could attract investor attention:
- Ferguson plc: A leading distributor of building materials and engineering equipment will release its results for Q4 and the entire fiscal year 2025 (publication expected before market opens). Ferguson's results will provide insights into demand in the construction sector. Revenue growth is expected due to robust demand for building materials in North America, while investors will assess the company's profit dynamics against rising costs.
- Flux Power Holdings: A manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries for industrial equipment will release its report for Q4 and fiscal year 2025 after market close. The market anticipates significant revenue growth, although the company remains unprofitable. Investors will look for signs pointing to the company's closer approach to operational profitability and will monitor management's comments regarding new orders.
- Evolution Petroleum: An independent oil and gas company based in Texas will report on its completed fiscal year (report expected after market close). Shareholder earnings are anticipated to have risen on the back of increasing oil prices. Key focus areas will include production volumes, cash flow, and any changes in dividend policy.
In addition to these three, several smaller companies will release their reports today, but their influence on the broader market is generally minimal. Overall, Wall Street remains focused on macro factors and the impending Federal Reserve decision, meaning even significant deviations in the reports of individual issuers may not affect the overall trend.
European Company Reports
No major corporate releases are scheduled in Europe on September 16 – no leading issuers in the region will publish reports on that day. Only a few mid-cap firms will announce their results, with minimal impact on the market. In the absence of significant reports, investors in Europe will turn their attention to the macroeconomic backdrop and external signals. Movements of key indices will be determined by the morning data, particularly the ZEW index, and the dynamics of external markets. Weak statistics could exert pressure on cyclic stocks, while positive surprises will support the market, partially offsetting the informational lull on the corporate front.
Asian Company Reports
Similarly, no major reports from significant companies are slated for September 16 in the Asia-Pacific region. The earnings season in most Asian countries has either already concluded or key reports will be released closer to the end of the month. As a result, Asian markets will primarily look to external factors and domestic economic news. In Japan, optimism prevails: the Nikkei 225 index has reached record levels amid expectations of government stimulus and a weak yen, which supports exporters. In contrast, sentiment in China is more cautious – recent data indicates a slowing economy (August retail sales growth is only +3.4% year-over-year), heightening expectations for new stimulus from authorities. Therefore, Asian exchanges are balancing between optimism in Japan and cautiousness in China, lacking significant momentum from corporate news on the current day.
Russian Companies and the Moscow Exchange Index
The Russian stock market on September 16 will be influenced by external trends, as the reporting season for the largest domestic issuers has already concluded, and no new publications are expected today. Following the previous session, the Moscow Exchange Index corrected after recent weeks of growth – investors have secured profits in anticipation of further signals. The absence of fresh corporate drivers means that key factors for Moscow trading will be oil prices and sentiments in global exchanges. Export-oriented companies are supported by a weak ruble and favorable commodity prices, although ruble volatility adds uncertainty to forecasts. Overall, the Russian market will focus on external influences and global investor sentiment.
Commodity Markets: Oil and API Report
Oil remains a crucial benchmark for both the commodity segment and the stock market. As of the morning of September 16, prices for benchmark Brent oil are around $67 per barrel, remaining within a narrow range. On one hand, ongoing production cuts from OPEC+ support prices; on the other, concerns about demand amid a slowing economy in China and Europe restrain price growth.
Late in the evening, the weekly API oil report for the U.S. will be released, which could influence price movements. If the API data shows a substantial reduction in commercial inventories, it will signal steady demand and push oil prices upward. Conversely, if inventories rise beyond expectations, prices may decline due to fears of market oversupply. Although official EIA data will not be released until tomorrow, market players traditionally react to the API estimate in advance. Price fluctuations following the API report are significant for oil and gas stocks and overall risk appetite.
Conclusion: Key Considerations for Investors
- Macroeconomic Data: Releases of U.S. retail sales and business activity indices in Europe today will largely dictate market sentiment. Unexpected deviations in these figures can reshape rate expectations and overall market trends.
- Trade Negotiations: News regarding the progress of U.S.-China and U.S.-India dialogues will impact risk appetite, especially in industrial and tech sectors.
- Corporate Reports: Results from Ferguson, Flux Power, Evolution Petroleum, and other companies will shed light on conditions in construction, green energy, and oil and gas sectors. The market's reaction to these reports will indicate investor sentiment in the respective sectors.
- Oil and Commodity Markets: Price fluctuations following the API report are essential for oil and gas stocks and overall risk appetite.
- Russian Market: For the Russian market, external factors will be decisive – from the outcome of tomorrow's Fed meeting to the dynamics of global exchanges – as there are no domestic triggers today.
