Energy and Oil & Gas News for July 25, 2026: Brent Above $100 per Barrel, TTF Gas at Highest Since January 2023, CTC Shipment Halt, OPEC+ Quotas, Russia's Fuel Market, Coal, Electricity, and Renewables. Overview for Investors and Energy Sector Participants
The global fuel and energy sector is entering the weekend in a state of maximum tension not seen in the last four years. The escalation of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has spread from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, has pushed Brent crude prices above the psychological mark of $100 per barrel for the first time since May, while European gas at the TTF hub has reached its highest levels since January 2023. Concurrently, shipments of Kazakh oil via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium have been halted, and the Russian domestic fuel market is just beginning to emerge from a severe deficit phase. Below is a detailed overview of the key developments in the oil & gas, coal, and electricity sectors for investors and energy market participants.
Key Updates for Saturday Morning, July 25, 2026
- Oil: Brent closed Thursday at $100.69 per barrel (+7%), while WTI traded at $92.19 (+6.2%). On Friday, the market corrected by approximately 5%, with Brent trading around $95–96 and WTI near $88.
- Monthly Dynamics: From $71.57 per barrel on July 1, Brent has gained over 30% – one of the sharpest monthly increases since 2022.
- Gas: TTF futures rose above €63/MWh – the highest since January 2023, with a growth of more than 45% since early July and nearly doubling year-on-year.
- Logistics: CTC has halted shipments in Novorossiysk; Kazakhstan has reduced production.
- Coal: Newcastle coal remains around $130 per tonne amid LNG supply shortages.
- Electricity: The IEA forecasts global electricity demand to grow by 3.6% in 2026.
Oil Market: Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns to Prices
The oil market has spent the last five weeks reacting to military reports. The breakthrough above the $100 mark for Brent came after reports of drone attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and statements regarding the U.S. readiness to deliver a significant strike against Iran. This has been the peak of a rally in which the commodity sector added over 30% in three weeks.
Factors Pushing Prices Up
- Physical reduction of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which traditionally carries about one-fifth of global oil trade.
- The threat of a blockade of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait – an alternative route for Saudi exports bypassing Hormuz.
- Halted shipments of Kazakh oil via the Black Sea, removing over 1% of global supply from the market.
- Depleted commercial oil and petroleum product stocks in OECD countries following the spring phase of the conflict.
- Rising freight and insurance costs, which are reflected in end prices for refineries.
Factors Restraining Growth
- Diplomatic track: Reports of Pakistan's attempts, supported by China, to renew negotiations between the U.S. and Iran instantly removed about 5% of the market premium.
- China's interest in de-escalation: Disruptions in the Persian Gulf affect the interests of the world's largest oil importer.
- OPEC+'s spare capacity and ongoing quota recovery.
The range of forecasts is abnormally wide. RBC Capital Markets suggests that if escalation continues, Brent could surpass the 2022 peak of $128 per barrel. Conversely, UBS expects a pullback to $85 by the end of the year, emphasizing that the recovery of production in the Middle East is proceeding more slowly than market expectations, keeping the oil market balance in deficit.
OPEC+: Quotas Rise, But Real Barrels Are Slow to Arrive
The alliance continues its phased recovery of oil production. The July quota for the "group of eight" stands at 30.633 million barrels per day, an increase of over 1 million barrels per day from June; the monthly easing step is maintained at 188,000 barrels per day. The overall policy of the alliance has been confirmed until December 31, 2026, with the maximum allowable production level fixed at 39.725 million barrels per day. Concurrently, an assessment of the maximum production capacities of participants is underway – it will form the basis for the baseline quotas for 2027.
The key problem for OPEC+ today lies not in paper quotas but in logistics: a significant portion of spare capacity is located in the Persian Gulf countries and is physically dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, the risks surrounding which are driving prices upward. The UAE's exit from the alliance on May 1, 2026, further reduced the controlled pool of supply.
Gas Market: TTF at Record Highs, Europe Risks Falling Short on Underground Gas Storage
The European gas market has become the second epicenter of the crisis. TTF prices have risen by more than 45% since early July and exceeded €63/MWh. The reasons are structural in nature:
- Reduction of Qatari LNG supplies and export restrictions from the Persian Gulf;
- Redirection of U.S. LNG cargoes to Asian markets with higher prices;
- Abnormal heat in Europe, increasing demand for electricity for air conditioning and, consequently, gas used in generation;
- Rising freight and insurance rates on routes through conflict zones.
The largest gas supplier to Europe, Equinor, has warned that the region is unlikely to reach the target level of 80% underground gas storage filling by the start of the heating season. The lag in injection rates from the five-year average makes the winter of 2026–2027 a major risk for European industry. An additional dimension of the issue is inflationary: in the context of the energy shock, the ECB maintained its deposit rate at 2.25% on July 23; however, a significant number of economists anticipate one more increase by the end of the year.
Caspian Pipeline Consortium: A Blow to Kazakhstan's Exports
On July 19, the CTC halted oil loading at the seaport near Novorossiysk after drone attacks on two tankers. From July 21, Kazakhstan suspended pumping crude into the consortium's system: shipowners are refusing to send vessels to the terminal. The CTC accounts for approximately 80–90% of Kazakhstan's oil exports and over 1% of global oil supply; in 2025, around 63 million tonnes of crude passed through the system.
On July 23, Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy confirmed a forced reduction in daily production to prevent tank farm overflow. Some volumes are being redirected through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline; however, its capacity cannot fully compensate for the lost exports. For European refineries oriented towards the CPC Blend grade, this means an urgent need to seek replacement shipments of light low-sulfur crude.
Russia: Fuel Market Gradually Emerging from Acute Phase
The domestic market for petroleum products in Russia is experiencing its most challenging summer in recent years. The gasoline and diesel deficit, observed since late May, has been caused by a combination of factors: unplanned refinery shutdowns, seasonal demand peaks during holidays and harvest campaigns, along with logistical restrictions in southern regions.
A range of measures has been implemented, including:
- A complete export ban on gasoline, diesel fuel, marine fuel, jet kerosene, and gas oils;
- A reduction in the mandatory trading sales norm for gasoline from 15% to 10% for the period from July 1 to September 30;
- Removal of the import duty and increasing imports of petroleum products from Belarus;
- Maximal loading of existing capacities, shortening the duration of current repairs, and postponing planned ones;
- Involving the capabilities of medium and small refineries.
On July 21, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that market stabilization had begun, noting that in certain regions, the situation is being addressed "in a manual, targeted manner." Priority has been given to supplying agricultural producers during the harvest campaign and northern transportation. The FAS has initiated 15 cases against market participants, and on July 23, the Ministry of Energy instructed oil companies to explore the cancellation of regional limits on fuel sales volume of less than 50 liters – a signal that authorities believe the peak crisis has passed.
Russian Oil Exports: Volatility of Discounts
The dynamics of Russian export grade Urals in 2026 demonstrate an atypical amplitude. In April-May, at the height of the Middle Eastern crisis, Urals in shipments to India and China traded at a premium to Brent, reflecting a sharp shortage of sour grades. By June-July, prices returned to a discount range of $2-3 per barrel amid reduced activity from Asian processors and squeezed margins at independent Chinese refineries. The current rise in benchmark prices again boosts export revenues; however, the sanctions infrastructure – restrictions on freight, insurance, and settlements – continues to keep realized prices below exchange indicators.
Coal Market: A Comeback Amid LNG Shortages
Coal is returning to the forefront of global energy as the fuel of last resort. Australian thermal coal Newcastle is trading around $130 per tonne. The loss of LNG supplies to Asia creates additional demand: according to industry analysts, extra coal consumption in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026 could reach approximately 70 million tonnes, and in the event of a resumption of full-scale hostilities, up to 90 million tonnes.
Japan is leading in coal generation growth, with output at coal-fired power plants increasing at double-digit rates amid a decline in gas generation. South Korea and Taiwan are also ramping up coal capacity. In contrast, India is restricting imports due to rising domestic production and high stock levels, while China remains relatively insulated thanks to a low share of gas in its energy balance. Notably, major mining companies are hesitant to sanction new projects, viewing the spike in demand as cyclical rather than structural.
Electric Power and Renewables: A Record Year Amid Crisis
The paradox of 2026 is that the energy shock has not slowed down but accelerated the energy transition. According to the latest update from the International Energy Agency, global electricity demand is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2026 and by another 3.8% in 2027, increasing from 28,600 TWh in 2025 to 30,700 TWh by 2027. Key drivers include industry, electric transport, air conditioning, and data centers.
Key insights from the generation forecast include:
- Renewable generation will surpass coal globally for the first time in history in 2026.
- Renewable energy output will rise by over 8%, with its share in global generation increasing from 33% in 2025 to 37% by 2027.
- Solar generation will add about 600 TWh and surpass wind power, becoming the second-largest source of renewables after hydropower.
- Electricity demand in India is expected to grow by 7%; the country has for the first time surpassed the milestone of 100 GW of variable renewable generation.
Investment patterns reaffirm this trend: total investments in global energy in 2026 are estimated at $3.4 trillion, of which approximately $2.2 trillion is directed towards low-carbon technologies and electricity grid infrastructure. Renewables account for around $665 billion, including $365 billion in solar energy – effectively $1 billion per day, $200 billion in wind energy, and $75 billion in hydropower. Investments in energy storage systems will for the first time exceed $100 billion, increasing by more than 35% year-on-year. The logic of investors is straightforward: self-generation is a form of insurance against geopolitical shocks in hydrocarbon supply chains.
What This Means for Energy Sector Participants
The market has entered a phase where price formation is determined not by supply and demand balance but by probabilistic assessments of military scenarios. Practical takeaways for investors, fuel, and oil companies include:
- Hedging is now mandatory. Price movements of 5-7% per session make unhedged positions in oil, gas, and petroleum products a source of unacceptable risk.
- Refinery margins are under pressure from both sides. Rising raw material costs amid administrative or competitive restrictions on selling prices are squeezing refinery crack spreads.
- Logistics outweighs geology. Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, and Novorossiysk have shown that the price of a barrel today is dictated by the bottleneck's throughput rather than the volume of reserves underground.
- Coal and nuclear receive a premium for predictability. Assets with long contract horizons and domestic resource bases are being reassessed upwards.
- The winter risk in Europe is not alleviated. The lag in underground gas storage filling creates potential for another price spike on TTF in Q4.
Key market indicators to watch include the dynamics of the diplomatic track regarding Iran, resumption of CTC shipments, the pace of gas injection into European storage, and the next OPEC+ decision on quotas. Any of these events has the potential to shift prices by $5–10 per barrel within a single session. Investors and participants in the energy sector should prepare for heightened volatility in the oil & gas and energy sectors at least until the end of Q3 2026.
