Current News in the Fuel and Energy Complex as of October 28, 2025: Sanction Risks, Brent Above $65, Record Gas Supplies, Record Investments in Renewable Energy, and Stabilization of the Russian Fuel Market. A Review of Key Events and Trends in Global Energy for Investors and Market Participants.
As of October 28, 2025, the global fuel and energy complex continues to experience intense geopolitical confrontation, yet relative stability in raw material markets is observed alongside some positive signals. The sanctions confrontation between Russia and the West remains unyielding: the United States has imposed direct sanctions against major Russian oil and gas companies (including Rosneft and LUKOIL), urging allies to completely abandon trade in Russian energy resources and to close circumventing export channels. The European Union, for its part, is tightening restrictions by closing remaining loopholes (e.g., banning the re-export of petroleum products from Russian raw materials through third countries). Under pressure from the West, reports indicate that India and China are prepared to reduce purchases of Russian oil – although New Delhi and Beijing have not officially confirmed such plans, these signals alone heighten market uncertainty.
Concurrently, global raw material markets are exhibiting relatively calm dynamics. Oil prices, which had previously declined to multi-month lows, saw a significant rebound last week (Brent gained about 8%, the strongest weekly increase since June) – driven by fears of supply disruptions amid new sanctions against Russia. At the beginning of the current week, the growth was followed by a correction: investors partially locked in profits, and Brent is holding around $65 per barrel (WTI at approximately $61), which is still higher than levels seen a month ago. Additional support to the markets was provided by optimism in the global economy: a meeting is anticipated between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which the parties intend to finalize a trade agreement and avoid mutual tariff increases. The prospects for easing trade disputes between the U.S. and China improved forecasts for raw material demand. Thus, despite geopolitical tensions, raw material prices remain relatively stable. The European gas market is entering winter with record fuel supplies – underground gas storage in the EU is over 95% full, allowing gas prices to drop to comfortable levels (TTF index around €30 per MWh) provided the weather remains mild. The global energy transition is accelerating: investments in renewable energy are hitting historical records, and the share of clean sources in global generation is steadily increasing (in 2025, wind and solar generation together produced more electricity than coal-fired plants for the first time). Nevertheless, oil, gas, and coal still play a critically important role in meeting demand.
In Russia, the internal situation in the fuel market has significantly stabilized following emergency government measures. By mid-October, the acute shortage of gasoline and diesel that had been observed at the end of summer was largely resolved: wholesale prices have retreated from peak levels, independent gas stations have resumed normal fuel sales, and supplies returned to normal in most regions. Nevertheless, authorities continue to closely monitor the situation in the lead-up to winter – maintaining restrictions on the export of petroleum products and support measures for refineries to ensure uninterrupted supply to the domestic market. Concurrently, long-term solutions are being discussed in industry forums: at the Russian Energy Week 2025 forum (Moscow, October 15-17), one of the central topics was ensuring the internal market's energy resources and redirecting exports in the context of sanctions. Below is an overview of key events and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, renewable, coal sectors, and the Russian fuel market as of the current date.
Oil Market: Price Volatility, Supply Surplus, and Sanction Risks
Global oil prices remain under pressure due to oversupply and slowing demand. Brent quotes, after a recent rebound, are holding around multi-month lows (~$60–65 per barrel), significantly below levels from a month ago. The market expects that by the end of the year, oil supply will exceed demand: OPEC+ countries are increasing production, while major producers outside the cartel (the U.S., Brazil, etc.) are extracting record volumes. Meanwhile, consumption growth has slowed due to a weak economy in Europe and China, as well as previous price spikes – global oil inventories are rising, exerting downward pressure on quotes.
- Production Rising, Demand Slowing. Beginning in November, OPEC+ is set to gradually increase total production quotas (~+137,000 bbl/day), while the U.S. and Brazil have already approached record production levels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for global oil consumption growth in 2025 to approximately +0.7 million bbl/day (compared to >+2 million in 2023). The supply surplus and rising oil inventories continue to pressure prices.
- New Sanctions and Geopolitics. Heightened sanctions against the Russian oil sector continue to create market uncertainty. U.S. sanctions have been imposed against key oil companies in Russia, efforts to combat the "shadow fleet" of tankers are underway, and a complete embargo on Russian oil is being discussed. Simultaneously, military risks remain: drone attacks on oil infrastructure in Russia continue, periodically disrupting individual refineries. Additionally, India – one of the largest buyers of Russian oil – may gradually reduce its imports, pressured by the West. A loss of the Indian market would intensify pressure on Russian exports; however, global flows are likely to be redirected toward other destinations.
The oil market balances between fundamental and political factors. The oversupply keeps prices low, yet sanction risks and the potential market reshuffling (e.g., the possible withdrawal of Indian buyers) are preventing prices from dropping significantly below current levels. In the coming months, relatively low oil prices are expected to prevail within the corridor of around $60 per barrel unless new shocks occur.
Natural Gas: Record Supplies in Europe and Eastern Export Shift
The gas market is approaching winter in a favorable state. European gas storage is filled to a record level (over 95%, 5-7% higher than a year ago), stabilizing gas prices in the EU at around €30-35 per MWh. The risk of a repeat of last year’s gas crisis has significantly decreased – although much will depend on upcoming winter weather and the reliability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies.
- Europe is Ready for Winter. Record gas supplies create a robust reserve for cold weather, while demand in the EU remains subdued due to a sluggish economy and high electricity generation from renewables. Even in abnormal cold spells, a significant portion of additional needs can be covered by storage, reducing the likelihood of fuel shortages.
- Export – to the East. Russia is redirecting gas flows to Asian markets after sharply reducing exports to Europe. Supplies through the Power of Siberia pipeline to China have reached record volumes (~22 billion m³ per year), while the Power of Siberia 2 project is being prepared to partially replace the lost European market. Concurrently, Europe has increased LNG purchases from alternative suppliers, compensating for the cessation of imports from Russia. Global gas flows have already been redirected: the EU is virtually managing without Russian gas, while Russia is strengthening its presence in Asia. For now, a combination of moderate demand and high inventories is keeping gas prices at comfortable levels for consumers.
Therefore, the global gas sector is entering winter with a solid buffer. An unprecedented level of European reserves and the redirection of flows allow for expectations of price stability during winter, barring any extreme cold or other unforeseen events.
Electric Power: Record Demand and Network Modernization
Global electricity consumption in 2025 is heading toward a historical peak (for the first time exceeding 30,000 TWh per year). Major economies – the U.S., China – are achieving record generation volumes, while in many countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, rapid demand growth is driven by industrialization and population growth. The soaring increase in electricity demand necessitates proactive investments to avoid capacity shortages and supply disruptions.
Many countries are launching large-scale programs to modernize energy grids and build new power plants. Nevertheless, infrastructure does not always keep pace with the growing load: there are persistent risks of grid overloads and emergency outages in certain regions. Accelerated expansion and upgrading of electricity infrastructure become a key priority for ensuring reliable power supply amid record demand.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth and Integration Challenges
The renewable energy sector continues to rapidly grow, solidifying the shift towards a “green” transition. In 2025, record additions of new solar and wind capacities are expected – driven by extensive government support and investment programs in leading economies. However, the rapid development of renewables is accompanied by a number of challenges, as traditional resources still underpin the global energy system.
- Records and Challenges. Approximately 30% of the world's electricity in 2025 will be produced from renewable sources – a record share. In the European Union, clean sources already account for over 45% of generation, while in China, their share is nearing 30%. For the first time, wind and solar generation combined surpassed coal-fired plants in energy generation volume (as of the first half of 2025), marking an important milestone in the energy transition. Meanwhile, strong demand for renewable energy equipment has led to increased costs of key components (polysilicon, rare earth metals), and network infrastructure and energy storage systems are not always keeping pace with the introduction of new capacities. Regulatory uncertainty and market volatility also pose risks for investors and slow down project implementation.
New technological solutions – from more efficient batteries to hydrogen energy – are expected to help overcome the growth limitations of renewable energy. Provided government support continues and market risks are considered, “green” energy will further increase its contribution to the global energy balance.
Coal Market: High Demand in Asia and Rapid Phase-Out in the West
In 2025, the global coal market is exhibiting divergent trends. In Asia, high demand for coal supports global trade, while developed countries are accelerating the phase-out of this fuel as part of the climate agenda.
The summer period marked a spike in coal imports in East Asia: for instance, in August, China, Japan, and South Korea imported nearly 20% more coal than in July. The increase in imports was driven by rising electricity generation during extreme heat and temporary cuts in domestic production at certain mines (in China, safety inspections halted operations at several coal-producing facilities, necessitating an increase in imports for power plants).
Although active demand in Asia currently supports the global coal market, the strategic course is shifting towards reducing the role of this fuel. The commissioning of new renewable energy capacities and stringent environmental regulations are inevitably displacing coal generation in the long run. The challenge for the industry is to balance current energy needs with long-term decarbonization goals to navigate the transition period without shortages and upheavals.
Russian Fuel Market: Stabilization, Export Restrictions, and Control
In the fall of 2025, Russia’s internal fuel market is gradually stabilizing after an acute crisis in late summer. In September, many regions faced shortages of gasoline and diesel due to a surge in seasonal demand and reduced supplies from refineries. The cause was planned repairs at several plants, unplanned emergency shutdowns, and drone attacks on oil infrastructure. By mid-October, the government managed to eliminate the primary fuel deficit through emergency measures – from a complete export ban to subsidizing sales at gas stations. Wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have retreated from peak levels, and independent stations have resumed normal operations in most regions. However, the situation in remote areas has not completely normalized, prompting authorities to keep it under close observation. To prevent a new crisis, the package of stabilization measures has been extended and expanded:
- Export and Prices – Under Control. The complete ban on gasoline exports, implemented in late September, has been extended until December 31, 2025. Restrictions on diesel exports are also maintained: independent traders are not exporting, and oil companies with refineries are only permitted to export strictly limited volumes. Simultaneously, a damping mechanism to support refiners continues to be in effect – the government compensates them for the difference between export and domestic fuel prices, preserving incentives to supply the domestic market. Until mid-2026, import duties on gasoline and diesel are waived to facilitate the attraction of outside supplies if necessary. The Federal Antimonopoly Service monitors prices at gas stations; authorities continue to avoid direct freezing of retail prices, focusing on market mechanisms and targeted subsidies.
The measures taken have already yielded results: gasoline and diesel production has returned to pre-crisis levels (aided by the completion of unplanned repairs at refineries and the redirection of some export volumes to the domestic market). In most regions, independent gas stations are again supplied with fuel in necessary amounts. Authorities hope to navigate the winter period without supply disruptions but remain prepared to intervene promptly if the situation escalates. At a systemic level, the task of modernizing the fuel industry has been set – developing storage and logistics infrastructure, implementing digital resource distribution management, and increasing the depth of oil refining. These areas, actively discussed at REW-2025, aim to ensure the long-term resilience of the market.
Thus, the Russian fuel and energy complex is entering winter under strict state control and support in the form of subsidies. The comprehensive measures – from limiting exports to stimulating refineries – provide grounds for optimism that a repeat of the fuel crisis can be avoided even amid external pressures. Market participants will closely monitor the effectiveness of these steps, which will determine investor and consumer confidence in the stability of the country's fuel and energy complex.
