Key Energy Sector News for September 16, 2025: Sanction Pressure, Global Oil Market Balance, Gas Sector Stability, Renewable Energy Records, Coal Demand in Asia, and Fuel Price Stabilization Measures in Russia.
Current events in the fuel and energy sector (FES) on September 16, 2025, draw the attention of investors and market participants with a combination of conflicting factors. Despite summer diplomatic contacts between Russia and the United States, there have been no significant breakthroughs in relations. On the contrary, some recent actions by Washington and its allies indicate an increase in sanction pressure, although some channels for dialogue remain open. The global oil market continues to balance under the influence of fundamental factors: an oversupply and slowing demand keep Brent prices around the mid-$60 per barrel, reflecting a fragile equilibrium. The European gas market demonstrates stability: underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in the EU are filled to over 90%, providing a buffer ahead of winter and keeping prices at a moderate level. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—many countries are setting new generation records from renewable sources, although traditional resources are still needed for the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, following a recent spike in fuel prices, authorities are implementing a comprehensive set of emergency measures to stabilize the domestic oil products market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and commodity sectors as of the current date.
The Oil Market: Oversupply and Geopolitical Risks Keep Prices in Check
Global oil prices remain relatively stable as of mid-September, maintaining a moderate range. The benchmark North Sea Brent crude trades around $66–68 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sits within $62–64. Current quotes are approximately 10% lower than levels a year ago, reflecting a gradual normalization of the market following the peaks of the energy crisis in 2022–2023. Several factors influence price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Gradually Increases Production: The oil alliance continues to restore supply. At the September 7 meeting, member countries agreed to increase the total production quota by approximately +137,000 barrels per day starting in October (following an increase of +548,000 b/d a month earlier). Despite relatively low prices, OPEC+ aims to regain lost market shares, contributing to a rise in global oil and product inventories.
- Weak Demand Growth: Global oil consumption is growing significantly slower than in previous years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that demand growth in 2025 will be less than 1 million b/d (compared to over +2.5 million in 2023). OPEC also anticipates modest growth (~+1.2–1.3 million b/d). The reasons include a slowdown in the global economy (including declining GDP growth rates in China) and the impact of high prices in previous periods, which have prompted energy conservation.
- Rising Stocks and Non-OPEC Exports: Commercial oil inventories in the U.S. unexpectedly increased in September, signaling a forming surplus. Concurrently, certain producers are ramping up exports: for instance, Saudi Arabia sharply increased oil supplies to international markets after the end of the high domestic consumption season. Furthermore, reductions in product exports from Russia are freeing up additional volumes of crude oil for the global market.
- Geopolitics and Finance: The ongoing sanction conflict creates nervousness in the market. The lack of progress in negotiations implies the continuation of existing restrictions and the risk of new ones, as indicated by Western leaders. Meanwhile, expectations of eased U.S. Federal Reserve policy amid weak macro data slightly weaken the dollar, temporarily supporting commodities. There is also an ongoing risk of escalation in conflicts in the Middle East. Collectively, these factors keep oil prices within a narrow range—without conditions for either a rally or a crash.
Thus, the global oil market is currently close to a state of surplus. The excess supply compensates for existing geopolitical risks, preventing prices from falling sharply, but also discouraging growth. Brent is trading significantly lower than last year’s levels, and a number of analysts believe that unless current trends change, further moderate price declines could occur by year-end.
Gas Market: Europe Fills Storage and Keeps Prices Stable
The focus in the gas market is on Europe. EU countries are rapidly filling underground gas storage, preparing for the fall-winter period. By mid-September, the overall filling level of European storage facilities surpassed 90% of total capacity, significantly ahead of the European Commission’s schedule, creating a solid reserve for winter. As a result, exchange prices for gas are maintained at relatively low levels: futures quotes at the TTF hub are around €30/MWh (approximately $380 per thousand cubic meters), which is several times lower than the peaks of the 2022 crisis. The active influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG) during the summer months has also contributed to the rapid replenishment of reserves, compensating for reductions in pipeline supplies from traditional sources.
Going forward, uncertainty remains in the gas market—there may be increased demand for LNG from Asia during winter, which could divert some supplies and push prices upward. For now, the situation for Europe looks favorable: record reserves and stable supplies allow a relatively confident entry into the heating season, with prices remaining comfortable for European industry and energy.
However, Eastern Europe remains dependent on Russian gas resources. Kyiv’s attempts to establish gas imports from alternative sources have faced challenges: Azerbaijan's gas supplies through Romania, which began in August, ceased by September. As a result, Ukraine continues to meet its needs through Russian gas transiting via neighboring countries (Hungary, Slovakia, etc.). Experts point to limited infrastructure as one reason for the supply disruptions:
"It is likely that the problem lies in the infrastructure: the project could have been impacted by a lack of pipeline capacity. TANAP (16 billion cubic meters per year) and TAP (11 billion cubic meters) are already loaded. To increase supplies to Europe and service new consumers, Azerbaijan will need to develop additional gas transportation infrastructure," says Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market (Business Newspaper "Vzglyad").
International Politics: Increasing Sanctions and Risks to the Energy Sector
The geopolitical situation surrounding the FES remains tense. On one hand, Moscow and Washington have expressed a willingness to maintain contact following the August meeting—working channels of communication between governments continue to operate, allowing for the possibility of further consultations. However, there has been no real easing of the sanction regime; moreover, several recent actions by Western countries indicate a tightening of restrictions:
- Japan Tightens Oil Restrictions: As of September 12, Tokyo lowered the upper price limit on Russian oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, thereby intensifying sanction pressure on Russian raw material exports.
- The U.S. Calls on Allies to Intensify Pressure: According to media reports, Washington is urging G7 partners to impose additional tariffs or fees on Russian oil supplies to India and China, attempting to reduce Moscow's benefits from redirecting exports to Asia.
- Discussion of New Sanctions: There is open discussion in the West about the possibility of introducing additional measures against the Russian energy sector if no progress is made in resolving the crisis. In particular, the idea of imposing 100% tariffs on all Chinese exports to the U.S. has been floated if Beijing does not limit cooperation with Russia in the oil and gas sector. The European Union is also considering sanctions against companies from third countries that assist in circumventing the existing embargo.
Additionally, direct risks to infrastructure remain: drone attacks on Russian FES facilities have become more frequent. In recent weeks, several incidents (including drone strikes on refineries in Bashkortostan and the Leningrad region) have temporarily incapacitated production capacities, increasing market nervousness. Overall, geopolitics remains a key factor of uncertainty in the global energy market: sanction pressure and military risks inhibit investor activity while forcing a restructuring of global energy resource supply chains.
Asia: India and China Increase Purchases and Develop Production
Asian countries—primarily India and China—continue to play a critical role in the global energy market, combining increasing imports with domestic production development. **India** is clearly indicating that it is unwilling to sacrifice its energy security: despite Western pressure, New Delhi maintains a high level of purchases of Russian oil and petroleum products at favorable prices (the Urals brand is sold at a significant discount to Brent). At the same time, the Indian government aims to diversify supply sources and invests in increasing domestic oil and gas production, although short-term demand dictates the maintenance of substantial imports.
Under external sanction pressure, India is also compelled to exercise caution. Major Indian companies are implementing compliance measures: for instance, the Adani Group conglomerate banned vessels subject to EU, UK, or U.S. sanctions from entering its ports starting in September. This move has forced the redirection of Russian oil supplies to other ports and demonstrates how Indian businesses are balancing the benefits of purchasing cheap Russian raw materials with the risks of secondary sanctions.
**China**, meanwhile, is increasing imports of traditional energy resources (oil, pipeline gas, and LNG) while simultaneously boosting domestic production. Beijing has not joined Western sanctions and remains the largest buyer of Russian oil and gas under preferential terms. According to customs statistics, in 2024, China imported over 212 million tons of oil and about 246 billion cubic meters of gas—these volumes increased by 1–6% compared to the previous year. In 2025, imports continue to grow, albeit at more moderate rates due to high base figures. Concurrently, national companies in China are increasing hydrocarbon production (about 1% more oil and 6% more gas year-on-year since the beginning of 2025), but this is still insufficient: the country remains reliant on imports to cover at least 70% of its oil needs and about 40% for gas.
In an effort to bolster long-term energy security, Beijing and Moscow are developing cooperation. Recently, the parties agreed on critical parameters for the future "Power of Siberia-2" gas pipeline to China, which will significantly increase Russian gas exports to the Asian market. Thus, Asia remains the primary direction for Russian energy resource sales: India and China, based on their interests, continue to purchase oil, gas, and coal from Russia, compensating for Moscow's limited access to the markets of Europe and North America.
Energy Transition: Records in Renewable Energy and Balance with Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is reaching new heights in 2025. Many countries are reporting record levels of capacity installation and electricity generation from renewable sources (RES). For example, by the end of 2024, the **European Union** generated more electricity from solar and wind power than from coal and gas for the first time, a trend that has continued into 2025 thanks to the active launch of new solar panels and wind farms. It is expected that a record amount of new RES capacities will be commissioned in the EU this year (approximately 85–90 GW, according to the European Commission). In the U.S., the share of renewable sources in generation has exceeded 30%, and **China** is annually installing tens of gigawatts of new solar and wind stations, constantly breaking its records for "green" generation. According to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion, with more than half of this amount allocated for RES projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems.
At the same time, the rapid growth of variable renewable generation presents new challenges. During periods of low sunlight or wind, traditional power plants’ backup capacity is still required to meet peak demand and prevent interruptions. Investments in large energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped-storage plants) and "smart" grids, which allow flexible load management, continue in various countries. Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable energy may surpass coal as the leading source of global electricity generation. However, in the coming years, traditional resources—gas, coal, and nuclear energy—will continue to play a significant role in ensuring the stability of energy systems. The current stage of the energy transition necessitates a delicate balance: "green" energy is setting records and increasing its share, but classical sources remain essential for ensuring reliable electricity supply.
Coal: High Demand in Asia and Price Stability
Despite the climate agenda, the global coal market in 2025 continues to operate at historically high levels. Global coal consumption remains significant—primarily driven by Asia. **China** remains the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, extracting over 4 billion tons per year and burning these volumes in its power plants. During peak periods (e.g., during summer heatwaves when air conditioning loads increase), even this amount may not be sufficient, prompting China to increase coal imports to support its power system. **India** generates over 70% of its electricity from coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption in the country is rising alongside its economy. Several other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) are also commissioning new coal generation to meet growing electricity demand.
The largest coal-exporting countries—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa, and others—have increased their production and shipments in recent years. This has allowed prices to return to relatively moderate levels after the price spikes of 2021–2022. Currently, global prices for energy coal remain stable, providing affordable fuel for the power sector while remaining profitable for mining companies. Although many states declare plans to gradually reduce coal use to meet climate commitments, in the short term, this resource remains indispensable for reliable electricity supply for hundreds of millions of people, especially in Asian countries. Thus, the coal sector is currently in a state of relative equilibrium: demand for coal remains consistently high, while prices are moderate and predictable.
Russian Oil Products Market: Emergency Measures and Initial Results
In Russia's domestic fuel and energy sector, unprecedented measures aimed at curbing rising fuel prices were implemented at the end of summer. In August, wholesale exchange prices for gasoline and diesel set historical highs amid surging demand, disruptions at several refineries, and the profitability of exports. To saturate the domestic market, the government imposed a temporary **export ban on gasoline and diesel**—this affects oil companies until September 30 and traders and smaller fuel suppliers until October 31, 2025. Refineries are ordered to prioritize meeting the needs of domestic buyers by increasing shipments to problematic regions (additional fuel batches are being sent to Primorye and Crimea, where shortages were previously noted).
Simultaneously, authorities are discussing long-term stabilization mechanisms. Changes to the damping excise formula are being considered, increasing the allowable price deviation of fuel from the base level for calculating compensations. This would allow refiners to receive payments even with higher prices on the exchange and would reduce incentives for fuel exports. Additionally, state price controls will continue: the export ban on certain oil products may be extended until the situation is fully resolved, and the Federal Antimonopoly Service and the Ministry of Energy are jointly monitoring the market to curb speculative price increases.
By early September, these measures had a stabilizing effect: after peaks in mid-August, wholesale gasoline prices on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange fell by 7–8%. However, during the second week of September, price pressure intensified again. Fuel quotes returned to a growth trajectory: the price of diesel exceeded 66,000 rubles per ton (a maximum since spring 2024), and A-92 gasoline in the European part of Russia rose to approximately 72,000 rubles per ton. Market participants attribute this to temporary factors—drone attacks on refineries, scheduled maintenance at several plants, and sustained high demand. Retail gasoline prices have risen by more than 7% since the beginning of the year, which is one and a half times higher than the overall inflation rate (~4%).
The government assures that the situation is under control: fueling stations are adequately supplied, and new deliveries from refineries continue to arrive. The Bank of Russia also expects that as seasonal agricultural work and vacations conclude, as well as with the resumption of refinery operations post-maintenance, fuel price growth will slow. The resumption of exports of oil products will be possible only after fully saturating the domestic market and ensuring a stable decrease in exchange prices. Thus, the set of measures is aimed at gradually normalizing the situation: authorities are prepared to extend restrictions and engage additional resources to keep gasoline and diesel prices for end consumers within acceptable limits.
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