Key News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Monday, February 9, 2026. Global Oil and Gas Market, OPEC+ Decisions, Energy, Renewables, Electricity, Coal, Oil Products, and Oil Refining.
At the beginning of February 2026, global oil prices remain relatively stable, holding in the high $60 range per barrel. The benchmark Brent is trading at around $68–70, while American WTI is in the $64–66 range. Following a downturn in the second half of 2025, prices have partially recovered due to coordinated actions by OPEC+ and various geopolitical factors. Nevertheless, overall market pressure persists due to oversupply and uncertainty in the global economy. Western countries continue to intensify sanctions: as of February, the price cap on Russian oil has been lowered to approximately $45 per barrel, and the European Union announced its 20th sanctions package against Russia this week, imposing a complete ban on servicing maritime transportation of Russian oil and adding dozens of "shadow fleet" tankers to the sanctions list. These measures complicate Russia's export supplies and heighten the risk of logistical disruptions. Simultaneously, India has seen a sharp drop in purchases of Russian oil—January data shows imports have plummeted to less than a third of last year's levels, signaling a potential redirection of trade flows.
On the domestic market, the Russian state continues to closely monitor fuel prices. The Federal Anti-Monopoly Service is conducting unscheduled inspections of oil companies in response to inflation risks in this sector. Winter cold has led to new records in energy consumption: peak loads on the energy system and historic highs in gas demand have been recorded in several regions. Nevertheless, the energy system is coping with the increased load by utilizing reserves, and significant disruptions have been avoided. At the same time, the global energy transition continues to gain momentum—investments in renewable energy are hitting new records, and by the end of 2025, the share of "green" generation in the European Union surpassed fossil fuel electricity generation for the first time. In this review, we examine the current trends in global oil and gas markets, analyze the situation in Russia's fuel and energy complex, and highlight key events in the coal, electricity, and renewable energy sectors.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Sanction Pressure
At the beginning of February, oil prices have stabilized at moderate levels after a period of modest growth. North Sea Brent remains around $68–70 per barrel, while American WTI trades in the range of $64–66, bouncing back from the lows ($60) at the end of 2025. Market support comes from signals indicating OPEC+'s readiness to limit supply amid fragile demand. Major oil exporters suspended planned production increases at the end of last year and confirmed the extension of existing production cuts at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026, aiming to prevent overproduction during the seasonally weak winter demand. Key factors and risks affecting the oil market are as follows:
- OPEC+ Policy and Demand. Alliance members continue to uphold significant voluntary production cuts (totaling approximately 3.7 million barrels per day), renouncing earlier plans for increases. OPEC projects an increase in global oil demand in 2026 of around +1.2 million barrels per day (to approximately 105 million barrels per day), but notes that a slowdown in China's economy and high interest rates in the US and Europe may alter these expectations. The oil alliance is carefully monitoring the market and is ready to respond swiftly to prevent imbalances: recent geopolitical incidents (such as escalations in the Middle East) have already demonstrated OPEC+'s willingness to intervene if necessary to stabilize prices.
- Sanctions and Redistribution of Flows. The sanctions standoff surrounding Russian oil is intensifying and continues to impact the global market. The new 20th sanctions package from the EU tightens restrictions: European companies are prohibited from insuring and financing vessels transporting oil from Russia, and the "blacklist" of violator vessels has expanded. Additionally, as of February, Western countries have lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $45, increasing pressure on Moscow's export revenues. Despite this, Russian hydrocarbons continue to find buyers in Asia, but competition for these markets is growing. In January, India—the largest importer of Russian oil in 2025—cut purchases to about a third of last year's levels, partially redirecting towards other sources. This indicates the flexibility of Asian consumers and compels Russian exporters to actively reroute supplies to China, Turkey, Southeast Asia, and other alternative directions.
Thus, the combination of these factors prevents oil prices from collapsing but also limits their growth. The market is accounting for both the risks of an economic slowdown, which reduce demand, and the possibility of a deficit forming in the latter half of the year if sanctions significantly curtail supply. For now, prices remain relatively stable, and volatility is low compared to recent years.
Natural Gas Market: Depleting Stocks in Europe and Record LNG Imports
By February 2026, the European gas market remains relatively calm despite increased winter consumption. Underground gas storage (UGS) sites in the EU are rapidly depleting as the heating season progresses, but relatively mild weather in late January and record LNG deliveries help avoid shortages and price shocks. Futures at the TTF hub are holding around $10–12 per million BTU, significantly lower than the peaks of 2022 and reflecting market confidence in resource availability this winter. In Russia, early February saw a historic maximum in daily gas consumption—anomalous frosts set records for withdrawal from the gas transport system for several consecutive days.
The situation in the gas market is determined by several key trends:
- Depleting Stocks and New Injection Season. Winter withdrawals are quickly depleting gas stocks in European storage facilities. By the end of January, UGS levels in the EU had dropped to approximately 45% of total capacity—the lowest level for this time of year since 2022, and significantly below historical averages (~58%). If current trends continue, stocks could decrease to about 30% by the end of March. To raise levels back to a comfortable 80–90% before next winter, European importers will need to inject around 60 billion cubic meters of gas during the interseason. Meeting this target will require maximizing purchases in the warmer months, especially considering that a significant portion of current imports is used for immediate consumption.
- Record LNG Deliveries. The decline in pipeline supplies is being offset by unprecedented imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In 2025, countries in Europe purchased about 175 billion cubic meters of LNG (+30% compared to the previous year), and in 2026, imports are expected to reach 185 billion. This increase in purchases is supported by an expanded global supply: the commissioning of new LNG facilities in the US, Canada, Qatar, and other nations is set to boost global LNG production by approximately 7% this year (the fastest rates since 2019). The European market aims to navigate the heating season through high LNG purchases, especially since the EU has decided to completely halt imports of Russian gas by 2027, necessitating an annual substitution of approximately 33 billion cubic meters with additional LNG volumes.
- Turn to the East. Russia, having lost the European gas market, is increasing supplies to the East. Flows through the Power of Siberia pipeline to China have reached record levels (approaching the design capacity of ~22 billion cubic meters per year), while Moscow is accelerating negotiations to construct a second pipeline through Mongolia. Russian producers are also increasing LNG exports to Asia from the Far East and Arctic. However, even with the eastern direction in play, total gas exports from Russia have significantly decreased compared to pre-2022 levels. The long-term redirection of gas flows is ongoing, solidifying a new global gas supply map.
Overall, the gas market is entering the second half of winter without the previous turbulence: prices remain moderate, and volatility has decreased to a minimum compared to recent years.
Refined Products and Refineries Market: Stabilization of Supply and Regulatory Measures
The global market for refined products (gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, etc.) is relatively stable at the beginning of 2026 after a period of price turbulence in recent years. Fuel demand remains high due to a revival in transportation activity and industrial growth, yet the increase in global refining capacities facilitates meeting this demand. Following deficits and price peaks in 2022-2023, the supply situation for gasoline and diesel is gradually normalizing, although sporadic disruptions are still observed in certain regions. Key trends in the fuel market include:
- Increase in Refining Capacities. New refineries are being brought online in Asia and the Middle East, which boosts global fuel output. For instance, the modernization of the Bapco refinery in Bahrain has expanded its capacity from 267 to 380 thousand barrels per day, and new facilities have come online in China and India. According to OPEC, global refining capacity is expected to increase by approximately 0.6 million barrels per day annually from 2025-2027. The growth in fuel supply has already led to a decrease in refining margins compared to the record levels of 2022-2023, alleviating price pressure for consumers.
- Price Stabilization and Local Disbalances. Gasoline and diesel prices have fallen from peak values, reflecting lower oil prices and increased fuel supply. However, local jumps can still occur: for example, recent cold snaps in North America temporarily elevated demand for heating fuels, while in certain countries in Europe, elevated diesel premiums persist due to logistics chain adjustments following the embargo on Russian supplies. Governments are implementing smoothing mechanisms in some cases—such as lowering fuel taxes or releasing part of strategic reserves—to keep prices under control during sudden demand spikes.
- Government Market Regulation. In some countries, authorities are directly intervening in the fuel market to stabilize supply. In Russia, post the 2025 fuel crisis, export restrictions on refined products are maintained: the ban on exports of gasoline and diesel for independent traders has been extended until summer 2026, and oil companies are permitted only limited exports abroad. Simultaneously, the damping mechanism has been extended, whereby the state compensates refineries for the difference between domestic and export prices, incentivizing supplies to the domestic market. These measures have alleviated fuel shortages at gas stations, although they emphasize the importance of manual management. In other regions (such as in some Asian countries), authorities are also resorting to temporary supportive measures—such as reducing taxes, subsidizing transport, or increasing imports—to mitigate the effects of sharp price fluctuations in fuel.
Electricity Sector: Rising Demand and Network Modernization
The global electricity sector is facing accelerated demand growth, accompanied by significant infrastructure challenges. According to the IEA, global electricity consumption is projected to grow by over 3.5% annually for the next five years—significantly outpacing overall energy consumption growth. Key drivers include the electrification of transportation (increased electric vehicle fleets), the digitalization of the economy (expansion of data centers, AI development), and climate factors (increased use of air conditioning in hot climates). Following a period of stagnation in the 2010s, electricity demand is rapidly increasing again even in developed countries.
At the start of 2026, extreme cold led to record peak loads on power systems in several countries. To avoid outages, operators had to deploy backup coal and oil-fired power plants. Although the share of coal in EU electricity generation dropped to a record low of 9% by the end of 2025, some European nations temporarily reactivated mothballed coal-fired power plants to manage peaks this winter. Concurrently, infrastructure bottlenecks have emerged: insufficient grid capacity has forced limitations on energy delivery from renewables on windy days to avoid overloads. These events underscore the urgent need for accelerated modernization of grid infrastructure and the development of energy storage systems.
Among the priorities for the electricity sector's development are:
- Modernization and Expansion of Grids. Growing loads necessitate comprehensive upgrades and development of electrical grid infrastructure. Many countries are launching accelerated overhead power line and digital management programs for energy systems. According to the IEA, over 2,500 GW of new generation capacities and major consumers worldwide are awaiting connection to the grid—bureaucratic delays are measured in years. Annual investments in electrical grids are expected to increase by approximately 50% by 2030; otherwise, generation development will outpace infrastructure capabilities.
- Reliability and Energy Storage. Energy companies are adopting new technologies to maintain stable electricity supply amid record loads. Energy storage systems are widespread—large-scale industrial battery farms are being constructed in California and Texas (USA), Germany, the UK, Australia, and other regions. Such batteries help balance daily peaks and integrate intermittent renewable generation. Simultaneously, grid protection measures are being strengthened: the industry is investing in cybersecurity and the upgrading of equipment, considering risks to reliability from extreme weather, infrastructure wear, and cyberattack threats. Governments and energy companies are allocating significant resources to enhance the flexibility and resilience of energy systems to prevent widespread outages amidst growing economic dependence on electricity.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth and New Challenges
The transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. The year 2025 set a record for newly installed renewable energy capacities (primarily solar and wind). Preliminary data from the IEA show that in 2025, the share of renewables in the world's electricity generation equaled that of coal (around 30%), while nuclear generation also reached record levels. In 2026, clean energy will continue to expand production at a leading pace. Global investments in the energy transition are reaching new highs: according to BNEF, over $2.3 trillion was invested in clean energy projects and electric transport in 2025 (+8% compared to 2024). Governments of major economies are strengthening support for "green" technologies, viewing them as drivers of sustainable growth.
Despite impressive progress, the rapid development of renewables is accompanied by challenges. The experience of the 2025/26 winter demonstrated that with a high share of intermittent generation, having backup capacities and storage systems is critically important: even advanced "green" energy systems are vulnerable to weather anomalies. To enhance stability, some countries are adjusting policies: for example, Germany is considering extending the operation of nuclear reactors, recognizing that a complete phase-out of nuclear energy is premature, while the EU is temporarily easing some climate regulations to avoid price spikes. However, the long-term course toward decarbonization remains unchanged—its implementation requires a more flexible and balanced approach, combining the rapid adoption of renewables with the maintenance of energy supply reliability.
Coal Sector: High Demand in Asia Amidst Transition Away from Coal
The global coal market in 2026 remains buoyant: global coal consumption is holding at historically high levels despite efforts to reduce its usage. According to the IEA, in 2025, global coal demand exceeded 8 billion tons—close to record levels. The primary reason is the consistently high demand in Asia. Economies such as China and India continue to burn vast amounts of coal for power generation and industrial needs, offsetting the decline in coal usage in Western Europe and the US.
- Asian Appetite. China and India account for the lion's share of global coal consumption. China, which makes up nearly 50% of global demand, even while mining over 4 billion tons of coal annually, has to increase imports during peak periods. India is also ramping up production, but with its economy growing rapidly, it must import significant volumes of fuel (mainly from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia). High demand from Asia supports relatively high coal prices. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, and Russia—have increased revenues due to stable orders from Asian countries.
- Gradual Phase-Out in the West. In Europe and North America, the coal sector continues to decline. After a temporary spike in coal usage in the EU during 2022-2023, its share is falling again: by the end of 2025, coal accounted for less than 10% of electricity generation in the European Union. Record-high renewable energy installation and the reactivation of nuclear plants are displacing coal in the energy mix of developed countries. Investments in new coal projects have virtually ceased outside of Asia. It is expected that in the latter half of the decade, global coal demand will begin to steadily decline, although in the short term, this type of fuel will still play an important role in meeting peak loads and industrial needs in emerging economies.
Forecast and Prospects
Despite a series of winter challenges, the global fuel and energy complex enters February 2026 without signs of panic, though in a state of heightened readiness. Short-term factors—extreme weather and geopolitical tensions—are supporting price volatility in oil and gas; however, the systemic balance of supply and demand remains stable overall. OPEC+ continues to play a stabilizing role, preventing a deficit in the oil market, while the operational redirection of supplies and production increases from other countries (like the US) compensate for local disruptions.
If new shocks do not occur, oil prices will likely remain near current levels until the next OPEC+ meeting, when the alliance may revise quotas depending on the situation. For the gas market, the coming weeks will be crucial: mild weather in the latter half of winter could help lower prices and begin recovery of stocks, while a new cold front threatens price spikes and complications for Europe. In spring, EU countries will have a significant campaign ahead to replenish UGS ahead of the next heating season—competition with Asia for LNG promises to be fierce.
Investors are closely monitoring political signals. Potential progress in resolving geopolitical conflicts (such as peace negotiations concerning Ukraine) or, conversely, escalating tensions (the intensification of US-Iran hostilities) can significantly influence market sentiments. However, long-term development vectors—technological changes, the global energy transition, and the climate agenda—will continue to define the face of the global fuel and energy sector, setting the direction for investments and transformations in the industry for years to come.
