Current Oil and Gas and Energy News as of December 12, 2025: Geopolitical Initiatives, Oil and Gas Price Balance, Global LNG Growth, Russia's Pivot to the East, Energy Transition, and Industry Forecasts — Analytical Review for Investors and Energy Market Participants.
The focus is on the first signals of a potential easing of sanctions surrounding Russian energy, the stabilization of oil and gas prices amid cautious OPEC+ policies and comfortable fuel reserves, as well as the latest events in global energy. This review is oriented toward investors and participants in the fuel and energy sector, including oil and gas, fuel, and energy companies, and those monitoring the dynamics of oil, gas, electricity, and commodity markets.
Global Oil Market: Oversupply Pressures Prices
World oil prices remain relatively stable at the end of the year, with Brent around $60 per barrel and WTI approximately $58. Recent expectations of a softening U.S. Federal Reserve policy have provided a slight boost to prices; however, in general, oil has decreased by about 15% since the beginning of 2025 amid concerns of oversupply coupled with moderate demand growth.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are employing a cautious supply management strategy. At the December meeting, the alliance extended existing quotas at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026. OPEC+ continues to keep a significant portion of its capacity in reserve — around 3 million barrels per day — to prevent a price collapse. With Brent hovering around $60, cartel representatives emphasize the priority of market stabilization over any immediate intentions to increase exports, given the expectation of declining demand in the future.
Several key factors are influencing price dynamics:
- Demand. Global oil consumption is increasing at a much slower rate than in previous years. The growth in 2025 is estimated at less than 1 million barrels per day (compared to approximately +2.5 million in 2023). An economic downturn and energy-saving measures following a period of high prices, accompanied by a slowdown in China's industrial activity, are limiting demand growth.
- Supply. OPEC+ countries increased production in the first half of the year as restrictions eased; however, the threat of market oversupply now restrains further expansion plans. The decision to maintain production cuts at the beginning of 2026 signals the coalition's readiness to prevent surplus: members are prepared to quickly adjust exports if prices start to decline.
- Geopolitics. The war in Ukraine and sanctions against several oil-producing countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) continue to suppress supply and support prices. However, no new major shocks are currently observed; rather, initial diplomatic initiatives aimed at resolving the conflict are emerging, reducing the risk premium. As a result, the oil market remains within a relatively narrow price corridor without sharp fluctuations.
Global Gas and LNG Market: Stability in Europe, Increasing Supply
The gas market conditions at the end of 2025 are comparatively calm, unlike the frenzy seen two years ago. The European Union enters winter without signs of gas shortages: EU underground storage is over 70% full, significantly above the December average. Gas prices in Europe (TTF hub) hover around €30 per MWh, which is an order of magnitude lower than the peaks of 2022. The volumes of Russian gas that are missing are almost completely compensated by record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from alternative sources — terminals are actively receiving fuel from the USA, Qatar, Norway, and other countries.
Global LNG supply continues to grow due to the commissioning of new facilities. Large export terminals in the USA (e.g., Golden Pass in the Gulf of Mexico) are strengthening America's position as a leading supplier. Qatar, as part of expanding the North Field, plans to ramp up LNG production to 126 million tons per year by 2027, having contracted significant volumes with buyers in Europe and Asia. New projects are also starting up in other regions (Australia, Africa), enhancing competition in the liquefied gas market.
At the same time, demand for gas is growing at moderate rates. In Asia, some importers are even redirecting excess purchased cargoes to the spot market due to temporary weak consumption. Overall, the expansion of supply coupled with restrained demand keeps global gas prices at relatively low levels. However, the weather factor remains critical: in the case of anomalous cold or supply disruptions during winter, short-term price spikes may occur, although the baseline scenario assumes price stability.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: West's Tough Stance and Compromise Search
The confrontation between Russia and the West regarding energy resources continues, although attempts at dialogue have emerged towards the end of the year. G7 and EU countries maintain a tough sanction line: an embargo on Russian oil is in effect, exports of oil products are restricted, a price cap has been established, and financial sanctions complicate trade in energy resources from Russia. Moreover, discussions of new restrictions are anticipated in early 2026 — allies intend to eliminate any remaining loopholes and are prepared to tighten pressure if the military conflict continues.
Concurrently, the European Union is taking steps towards complete energy independence from Russia. On December 10, EU ambassadors approved a plan to legally abandon Russian energy carriers by the end of 2027 — ceasing purchases of natural gas (including LNG) and oil with oil products. This step is referred to by the EU as the "beginning of a new era," which will forever rid European energy of dependence on Russian fuel, solidifying the legislative break with Russia and stimulating the development of alternative sources — from increasing LNG imports to accelerating the implementation of renewable energy sources. Moscow has critically viewed the EU's strategy, warning that replacing cheap Russian gas with more expensive imports will incur higher costs for Europe. Nevertheless, Brussels is demonstrating a commitment to bear this cost for geopolitical goals.
According to media reports, the USA has offered allies a plan for gradually reintegrating Russia into the global economy following a peaceful settlement — including lifting sanctions and resuming exports of Russian energy carriers to Europe. However, the EU remains cautious regarding such initiatives and excludes any softening of its position without tangible progress in resolving the Ukrainian crisis.
Russia Shifts Focus to Asian Markets
Facing the loss of Western markets, Russia is ramping up energy resource exports to Asia. China has become a key buyer: at the end of August, the first batch of liquefied gas was sent from the new Arctic LNG-2 plant to China. In autumn, Russian LNG deliveries to China increased significantly, with Beijing actively ramping up fuel purchases at a 30-40% discount, disregarding Western sanctions pressure. The energy partnership between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, providing Russia with an alternative market while supplying China with cheap raw materials for its economy.
India also remains one of the largest buyers of Russian hydrocarbons. Following the introduction of the European oil embargo, Indian refineries have significantly increased imports of Russian Urals oil and other grades at reduced prices. Russian leadership has assured partners of its readiness to provide India with stable volumes of oil and oil products. Cheap resources from Russia help meet India’s rapidly growing demand while keeping domestic fuel prices in check, although New Delhi is trying to avoid critical dependence on a single supplier.
To cement the eastern pivot, Russia is developing export infrastructure. A project for a new pipeline, "Power of Siberia 2" through Mongolia to China, is being discussed, which could significantly increase gas supplies to Asia in the future. Simultaneously, Russia is creating its own tanker fleet to deliver oil to the markets of India, China, and Southeast Asia, reducing dependence on Western carriers and insurance services. These steps are intended to make the long-term shift of energy flows to the East irreversible and decrease Russia’s reliance on the European market.
Kazakhstan: Transit Risks and New Routes
The military conflict in Ukraine is impacting energy resource export routes as well. In early December, a drone attack damaged the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk. Although shipments of Kazakh oil have not completely stopped, Astana has decided to accelerate diversification. The government of Kazakhstan announced the redirection of part of the oil from the Kashagan field to China and is considering increasing shipments through Caspian ports to reduce dependence on the route through Russia.
To enhance energy security, Kazakhstan is also planning to build a new oil refinery with foreign capital participation. Expanding domestic refining capacity will enable the country to reduce fuel imports and increase the resilience of the oil and gas sector against external shocks.
Renewable Energy and Climate: Progress and Setbacks
The global energy transition continues to accelerate, although international climate agreements are stalling. At the UN COP30 conference (November 2025, Belém, Brazil), a robust plan for phasing out fossil fuels was not accepted — a number of major oil and gas exporters blocked EU initiatives for establishing specific timelines for the phased cessation of production. The final agreement turned out to be a compromise, shifting the focus to funding adaptation to climate change and general emission reduction goals without clear timelines for phasing out oil, gas, and coal.
Despite the lack of clear commitments, leading economies are practically increasing investments in green energy. The year 2025 has become record-breaking for new solar and wind power capacity additions in many countries. China, India, the USA, the European Union, and others are actively investing in renewable energy sources, storage systems, and hydrogen technologies, aiming to reduce dependency on hydrocarbons.
In the short term, however, there have been retreats from the decarbonization trajectory. High natural gas prices in 2025 have forced several countries to increase coal burning for electricity generation to get through the heating season — global coal demand remains high. Experts view this step as a temporary measure. As the share of renewable energy sources increases and energy storage technologies improve, the consumption of coal and other fossil resources is expected to resume a downward trend. Thus, the long-term trend toward the transition to clean energy remains intact, albeit with some delays along the way.
Forecasts: Beginning of 2026
Analysts expect that in the first quarter of 2026, oil prices will be under moderate downward pressure due to high inventories and supplies outpacing demand growth. In the absence of new shocks, the average price of Brent could drop to the $55–60 per barrel range. At the same time, geopolitical factors can sharply alter the price landscape: escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, introduction of new sanctions, as well as crises in key oil-producing regions (Middle East, Latin America) may cause significant price fluctuations.
For the gas market, the critical factor remains the weather. If winter in the Northern Hemisphere is mild and fuel reserves are adequate, European gas prices will likely remain low. However, several weeks of anomalous cold could quickly deplete underground storage and trigger price spikes. Furthermore, there may be increased competition between Europe and Asia for LNG, especially if economic growth in Asian countries exceeds expectations.
Participants in the fuel and energy sector in 2026 will need to adapt to new conditions. Diversifying supply sources, enhancing energy efficiency, and implementing innovations (including developing renewable energy sources and carbon capture technologies) will be key to business resilience. The departing year 2025 has vividly demonstrated the close interconnection between economics, politics, and ecology in shaping prices for oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interconnection is likely to intensify: the global market will balance between oversupply and the risks of shortages, while the global community and authorities will have to combine energy security goals with climate objectives.
