Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for October 26, 2025: Expectations from the Fed and Bank of Japan, Big Tech Reports, Oil at Lows, and Gold at Highs
Sunday, October 26, ushers in a relative calm across global markets; however, it is crucial for investors to remain vigilant as a new week approaches. The spotlight is on the upcoming decisions from major central banks (the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan), which may set the course for global financial flows. Concurrently, the third quarter earnings season continues: the release of results from the largest tech giants in the U.S. is expected and could significantly influence market sentiments. Commodity price dynamics remain contrasting: oil is lingering at its lowest levels in several months, while gold is reaching new highs, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets. In Russian and European markets, the weekend allows participants to reassess strategies and prepare for a series of important events in the coming week.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- All day — Europe: transition to winter time (clocks set back one hour).
- 18:30 — China: total industrial profits (year-on-year, cumulative) for September.
Asia: Signals from China and Expectations in Japan
- China: Industrial profits for January-September are likely still in negative territory, reflecting weak domestic demand and deflationary pressure. The lack of signs of recovery may prompt Beijing to implement new measures to stimulate the economy.
- Japan: The upcoming meeting of the Bank of Japan (at the end of next week) urges investors to act cautiously. Rising inflation has intensified expectations of a possible unwinding of ultra-loose monetary policy. Any hint from the regulator regarding a rate hike or a change in bond yield control will impact the yen and the Nikkei 225 dynamics, hence activity in Tokyo before the central bank's decision will be subdued.
Central Banks and Global Policy: Fed, ECB, and the Bank of Russia
- U.S. Fed: At the meeting in early November, the market expects the current rate (~5.5%) to be maintained amid slowing inflation and cooling U.S. economy. However, the Fed’s rhetoric will be crucial: any hints from Jerome Powell regarding the future course—whether a prolonged pause or preparation for rate cuts in 2026—will significantly influence bond yields, the dollar, and growth stock valuations.
- ECB: The European Central Bank signaled last week that it has reached the peak of the tightening cycle by keeping rates unchanged. Inflation in the Eurozone is still above the target, so the ECB plans to maintain tight financial conditions. New data on GDP and prices will validate or refute the rationale behind this pause: sustained slowing in price pressure will support the ECB's decision, while unexpected inflation growth might revive discussions about rate hikes.
- Russia: On October 24, the Bank of Russia maintained its key rate at a high (double-digit) level, continuing its fight against inflation and supporting the ruble. For the Russian market, this means maintaining expensive credit but demonstrates the regulator's determination to curb price growth. Investors will take the signal from the central bank and fresh macro data (e.g., on industry) into account for forecasts on corporate profits and rates.
Energy Markets and Commodities
- Oil: Oil prices are under pressure. Brent is holding around $65 per barrel, while WTI is near $60, marking lows for several months. Expectations of increased supply and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have decreased the risk premium. Concerns over a slowing global economy and weak demand also limit growth potential. If the downward trend continues, OPEC+ may discuss new production limits to stabilize the market.
- Gold: Gold is trading at historic highs, exceeding $4,300 per ounce. The precious metal is experiencing heightened demand as a “safe haven” amidst global uncertainty and expectations of looser Fed policies. Falling bond yields and a weakening dollar further support price growth. Many investors are using gold to hedge risks within their portfolios.
Corporate Reports: Asia and Russia
- India: Conglomerate Reliance Industries reported approximately a 10% year-on-year increase in net profit for July-September. Strong performances from telecom and retail segments offset the volatility in the oil and gas sector, bolstering investor confidence in the company's diversified business.
- China and East Asia: In China, the corporate earnings season is gaining momentum—major state banks and IT giants will soon present third-quarter results. The market is awaiting signals regarding the status of the financial sector: a rise in non-performing loans or slowing revenues among economic leaders will heighten concerns for China's prospects. In Japan, many companies from the Nikkei 225 exceeded forecasts for the half-year, supporting the upward trend in the market. New reports from industrial and tech corporations at the beginning of the week will indicate whether this positive momentum can be sustained.
- Russia: Major Russian issuers will publish their third-quarter reports closer to November. Intermittent disclosure of operational indicators (production, output) from oil, gas, and metallurgy companies has not yet yielded any surprises. The market is using this pause to prepare for key releases: results from blue-chip companies will clarify the impact of the ruble's depreciation and external factors on businesses.
Corporate Reports: U.S. and Europe
- U.S.: The American market will not receive new reports on Sunday, so Wall Street takes a breather before a busy week. After an active start to the season (results have already been released by major banks and the first IT companies), investors are turning their attention to key releases in the coming days. The focus is on quarterly results from Big Tech: on Tuesday and Wednesday, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, and Meta will report, with Amazon joining on Thursday. These giants will largely set the tone for the Nasdaq and S&P 500: strong results will boost risk appetite, while disappointment from even one may heighten caution and trigger profit-taking in technology stocks.
- Europe: October 26 is a public holiday in Western Europe, so the corporate calendar remains quiet. Starting from Monday, a wave of releases from leaders within the Euro Stoxx 50 is expected. Investors will assess the latest results from international bank HSBC, followed by industrial and automotive firms for Q3. Closer to mid-week, several leading banks and insurers will present their figures. A critical question is how high rates and economic slowdown have impacted corporate profits. A prevalence of positive surprises will support European indices, while disappointments may increase volatility in certain stocks and sectors.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: With no news on Sunday, the Euro Stoxx 50 will look to external factors at the start of the week. Investors hope for favorable signals but remember that weak data from the U.S. or China could constrain growth.
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): On Monday, Tokyo will reflect on weekend news. The Nikkei 225 has risen in recent months due to strong corporate earnings and capital inflow. Unless there are sudden negative surprises (yen spikes, weak data from China), this upward trend is likely to continue, although the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting will limit activity.
- MOEX (Russia): As the week opens, the Russian market will balance external and internal factors. A positive external backdrop (rising metal prices, de-escalation of conflicts) will support stocks, while low oil prices and the high central bank rate will limit growth, particularly in the energy sector. The fundamentals for the Moscow Exchange remain relatively stable, but any fluctuations in commodities or news could swiftly adjust its dynamics.
Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- 1) Central Banks: Decisions from the Fed and the Bank of Japan in the coming days are key triggers for the markets. Any hint from the Fed regarding a policy shift (prolonged pause or preparation for cuts) will instantly reflect on bond yields, the dollar, and growth stocks. Similarly, signals from the Bank of Japan about unwinding ultra-loose policy will trigger fluctuations in the yen and a reassessment of Japanese asset valuations.
- 2) Big Tech Reports: Quarterly results from giants such as Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon could shift focus from macroeconomic risks to corporate trends. It is crucial to watch not just profits but also management forecasts. Strong reports from tech sector leaders will support the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while significant disappointments from even one company may heighten caution and trigger profit-taking within the tech segment.
- 3) Oil and Gold: Prolonged devaluation of oil has dual effects. Cheap energy resources reduce costs and keep inflation in check (a plus for commodity importers and the bond market) but diminish revenues for oil and gas companies and exporting countries. Investors with commodity assets must discern whether the current price decline is temporary or indicative of a sustained drop in demand. Concurrently, record-high gold prices signal high demand for protective instruments—this factor should be considered when balancing portfolios between riskier and protective assets.
- 4) Risk Management: This current pause should be leveraged to reassess one’s portfolio ahead of potential volatility. Ahead lie key events: central bank meetings, major company reports, and possible geopolitical news. By proactively setting limits on fluctuations for positions, adjusting stop-loss orders, and considering hedging (gold, futures, currencies), investors can better protect their capital from unexpected market shocks.
