Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, December 19, 2025: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Refineries, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market
By the end of December, significant changes are observable in the global fuel and energy complex (FEC). The combination of multi-year lows in raw material prices and geopolitical shifts creates an ambiguous backdrop that attracts the attention of investors and market participants. On one hand, oil is trading at its lowest levels in recent years amid expectations of oversupply and signals of progress in resolving the conflict in Eastern Europe. On the other hand, natural gas prices in Europe continue to decline even in the face of winter cold due to record liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. Simultaneously, global coal demand peaked in 2025 and is close to initiating a sustainable decline as the energy transition accelerates.
In this context, governments and companies are adapting their strategies. Some are making efforts to ease sanctions and stabilize supply chains, while others are ramping up investments in both the oil and gas sector as well as in renewable energy. Below is a detailed overview of the key events and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of the current date.
Oil and Oil Products
The global oil market remains under pressure, with prices approaching multi-year lows. The North Sea Brent is holding around $60 per barrel (sometimes dipping below this psychological barrier), while U.S. WTI is trading near $55 – these levels are the lowest since 2020. Key factors impacting the decline in oil prices include:
- Expected supply surplus: For 2026, an oversupply is anticipated with production outpacing demand. Non-OPEC countries (primarily the U.S. and Brazil) have increased production to record levels. Simultaneously, global demand growth is slowing – according to industry forecasts, demand growth in 2025 was around +0.7 million barrels/day (compared to more than +2 million in 2023), leading to inventory buildup and pressuring prices.
- Hopes for peace in Ukraine: Progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has generated expectations of partial sanctions relief and a return of some Russian oil exports to the market. The prospect of a ceasefire has strengthened forecasts for supply increases, contributing to lower oil prices.
- OPEC+ policy: After several months of gradual increases in production quotas, the OPEC+ alliance has decided to pause further increases in Q1 2026. The cartel is signaling caution amidst the risk of market oversaturation and a readiness to adjust production if necessary, although no unscheduled measures have been officially announced.
Influenced by these factors, oil prices have significantly decreased compared to the beginning of the year. There is a chance that Brent and WTI will finish 2025 at their lowest levels since mid-2020. The drop in commodity prices has already been reflected in the oil products market: gasoline and diesel prices have declined in most regions. In the U.S., retail gasoline prices have dropped ahead of the holiday season in nearly all states, reducing consumer expenses. European refiners, having switched to alternative feedstocks instead of Russian oil, are assured of stable supplies. Global refineries are maintaining a high level of processing, benefiting from cheaper oil, although fuel demand growth remains moderate. Refining margins generally remain stable; there’s no observed shortage of gasoline or diesel on the global market.
Gas Market and LNG
The gas market is experiencing a paradoxical situation: despite an early and cold winter, natural gas prices in Europe continue to decline. Dutch TTF hub prices have dropped below €30 per MWh – marking a minimum level since spring 2024, nearly 90% lower than the crisis peaks of 2022 and about 45% below the prices at the beginning of this year. The primary reason is an unprecedented influx of LNG, which compensates for declining pipeline supplies from Russia. Gas storages in the EU are filled to approximately 75%, which, while below multi-year average levels for December, along with record LNG imports, ensures sufficient resources for stable prices even during cold spells.
- Europe: Elevated LNG import volumes have driven gas prices down, despite increased consumption during the heating season. In 2025, over half of Europe's LNG imports were supplied by U.S. providers redirecting cargoes from Asian markets. This has led to a noticeable narrowing of the spread between European prices and lower U.S. gas prices.
- U.S.: In North America, gas futures have risen amid forecasts of anomalous cold spells. At the Henry Hub, prices spiked above $5 per MMBtu due to the threat of polar vortex conditions and the associated surge in heating demand. Nonetheless, domestic gas production in the U.S. remains high, which limits price growth as weather normalizes.
- Asia: The Asian gas market is relatively balanced by the year's end. Demand in key countries (China, South Korea, Japan) has been moderate, allowing some additional LNG shipments to flow to Europe. Prices at Asian hubs, such as JKM, have remained stable and avoided sharp swings, as competition for cargoes between Europe and Asia has weakened compared to the 2022 situation.
As a result, the global gas market enters winter with significantly more confidence than a year ago. Available stocks and flexible import volumes are sufficient to meet needs even during periods of extreme cold. The flexibility of the LNG market plays a key role: tankers can quickly be redirected to support Europe, alleviating regional imbalances. If this winter's temperatures remain within historical averages, the price environment for gas consumers will remain favorable.
Coal Sector
The traditional coal sector reached a historic peak in consumption in 2025, although the outlook suggests a forthcoming slowdown. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption rose by approximately 0.5% – reaching a record of 8.85 billion tonnes. Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation worldwide, but its share is expected to gradually decline: analysts predict that coal demand will plateau with subsequent declines by 2030, driven by the expansion of renewable energy and nuclear generation. However, regional dynamics differ:
- India: Coal consumption has decreased (the first decline in 50 years) due to an extraordinarily strong monsoon season. Abundant rains have increased output from hydropower plants and reduced demand for electricity from coal-fired plants.
- U.S.: In contrast, coal usage has increased. This has been supported by high natural gas prices in the first half of the year and political backing for the industry. The new presidential administration in Washington has halted the decommissioning of several coal plants, temporarily boosting demand for coal for generation.
- China: The world's largest coal consumer has maintained usage at last year's levels. China burns 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined, but even there, gradual consumption declines are expected by the end of the decade as enormous capacities for wind, solar, and nuclear energy come online.
Thus, 2025 is likely to be a peak year for the coal sector. In the future, increasing competition from gas (where feasible) and especially from renewables will push coal out of energy balances in many countries. Nevertheless, in the short term, coal remains in demand in developing Asian economies, where energy consumption growth is still outpacing the construction of new clean capacities.
Electricity and Renewable Energy
The electricity sector continues to undergo transformation under the influence of climate agendas and fuel price fluctuations. In 2025, the share of renewables in global electricity generation reached new heights: many countries have introduced record capacities of solar and wind power plants. For example, China has been rapidly expanding solar generation, while Europe and the U.S. have brought new offshore wind farms and large solar projects online, spurred on by government support and private investments. By the end of the year, total investment in "green" energy remains high, closely approaching levels of investment in fossil fuels.
However, the rapid growth of renewables presents challenges for energy system stability. This winter in Europe has highlighted the factor of variable weather: periods of weak wind and short daylight hours have increased the burden on traditional generation. At the beginning of the season, EU countries were forced to temporarily ramp up gas and coal generation due to an anticyclone that reduced output from wind farms, which caused electricity prices to rise in certain regions. Nevertheless, thanks to the growth in renewable capacity and a significant share of gas in the mix, serious supply problems have been avoided. Governments and energy companies are also actively investing in energy storage systems and grid modernization to smooth out peak loads and integrate renewables.
Climate commitments by countries continue to set the direction for industry development. At the recent World Climate Summit (COP30) in Brazil, calls to accelerate the energy transition were made. Several countries agreed to triple renewable capacity additions by 2030 and achieve significant improvements in energy efficiency. At the same time, many regions are witnessing a revival of interest in nuclear power: new nuclear plants are being built, and existing ones are being upgraded to provide baseload generation without emissions. Overall, the electricity sector is moving towards a cleaner and more sustainable future, although the transition period requires a delicate balance between supply reliability and environmental goals.
Geopolitics and Sanctions
Geopolitical factors continue to exert a significant influence on global energy markets. The focus remains on the conflict in Eastern Europe and the associated restrictions:
- Peace negotiations: In December, the most significant progress in peace dialogue regarding Ukraine was noted since the conflict began. The U.S. has expressed readiness to provide Kyiv with security guarantees similar to NATO, and European mediators are noting a constructive development in negotiations. Hopes for a ceasefire have increased, although Moscow has stated it will not agree to territorial concessions. Growing optimism regarding a potential cessation of hostilities has sparked discussions about the prospects of partial sanctions relief against Russia's oil and gas sector in the future.
- Sanction pressure: Concurrently, Western countries are signaling their readiness to increase pressure if the peace process stalls. Washington has prepared another package of restrictions against the Russian energy sector, which could be implemented if negotiations falter. Earlier in the fall, the U.S. and the UK expanded sanctions targeting oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, complicating their ability to secure investments and access to technologies.
- Infrastructure risks: Combat operations and sabotage continue to threaten energy facilities. The Ukrainian side has stepped up drone strikes against oil infrastructure deep within Russian territory over the past week. Notably, fires were reported at refineries in Krasnodar Krai and along the Volga River due to drone strikes. While these incidents only locally reduce the overall fuel supply level, they highlight the persistent military risks for the sector until a solid peace is established.
- Venezuela: In Latin America, geopolitics also impacts the oil market. Following a partial easing of the sanctions regime against Venezuela in the fall, the U.S. tightened control over compliance with the deal's terms. In December, an incident occurred when a tanker carrying Venezuelan oil was detained on suspicion of violating licensing terms. The state company PDVSA faced demands from buyers to increase discounts and revise supply conditions. This complicated Venezuela's efforts to boost exports, despite the recent allowance from the U.S. to temporarily increase production in exchange for political concessions from Caracas.
Overall, the sanctions standoff between Russia and the West, along with other international disagreements, continues to introduce uncertainty into the global energy sector. Investors are closely monitoring political news, as any changes—from breakthroughs in peace negotiations to the imposition of new restrictions—could significantly impact the prices of oil, gas, and other energy commodities.
Corporate News and Projects
The largest energy companies and infrastructure projects in the world are concluding the year with a number of significant events and decisions:
- Aramco enters the Indian market: Saudi Aramco has revived plans to invest in a large refinery complex in India. The company is close to acquiring a stake in the massive West Coast Refinery project, aiming to establish itself in the rapidly growing Indian market and secure long-term sales channels for its oil.
- New project in Guyana: A consortium led by ExxonMobil has approved the development of another major offshore field in Guyana, aiming to start production by 2028. Oil production in Guyana continues to grow rapidly, reinforcing this country’s position as one of the most dynamically developing new oil producers.
- Record wind farm in the North Sea: The largest offshore wind farm in the world, Dogger Bank, with a total capacity of 3.6 GW, has been completed in the North Sea. The project was implemented by a consortium of European energy companies and is capable of supplying electricity to up to 6 million households in the UK. This stage marks a milestone in the development of renewable energy and demonstrates the potential for large-scale green projects.
Overall, players in the oil, gas, and energy sectors are adapting to the new market realities. Some are reassessing their asset portfolios in light of geopolitical risks and changing market conditions (like Aramco, which is exploring new sales markets), while others are taking advantage of favorable situations to ramp up production and implement projects (such as ExxonMobil and its partners in Guyana). At the same time, investments are continuing in both traditional oil and gas directions as well as in the energy transition—from wind energy to hydrogen. The industry faces the challenge of balancing between short-term profitability and long-term decarbonization goals, and this balance is shaping the key strategic decisions of companies on the threshold of 2026.
