Current News in Oil and Gas and Energy as of January 14, 2026: Oil and Gas Prices, Sanctions Policy, Supply and Demand Balance, Refinery Market, Renewable Energy, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Sector.
The current events in the global fuel and energy sector as of January 14, 2026, are characterized by heightened geopolitical tension and ongoing price pressure due to oversupply. Diplomatic efforts for resolution continue; however, the conflict surrounding Ukraine remains far from resolution, and the United States is preparing to tighten sanctions pressure on Russian energy exports. At the same time, the oil market remains saturated: Brent crude prices are holding around $62–63 per barrel—almost 20% lower than a year ago—reflecting an oversupply and moderate demand. The European gas market demonstrates relative stability: gas storage levels in the EU, although decreasing in the midst of winter, still exceed 55% of capacity, keeping prices at a moderate level (~€30/MWh). Meanwhile, the global energy transition is picking up pace—2025 saw record levels of solar and wind capacity deployment; however, countries have yet to abandon traditional oil, gas, and coal to ensure the reliability of their energy systems. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Keep Prices Low
Global oil prices remain under downward pressure due to oversupply and insufficient demand. The North Sea benchmark Brent is trading around $63 per barrel, while American WTI is hovering around $59. These levels are approximately 15–20% lower than last year's figures, indicating a continued market correction following the price surge of previous years. A combination of several factors supports the current situation in the oil market:
- Increased Production Outside OPEC: Global oil supply is rising due to active production in non-OPEC+ countries. In 2025, there was a noticeable increase in supplies from Brazil, Guyana, and other nations. For instance, production in Brazil reached a record 3.8 million bbl/day, while Guyana ramped up production to 0.9 million bbl/day, with exported oil entering new markets. Additionally, Iran and Venezuela have slightly increased exports thanks to partial easing of restrictions, adding oil to the global market.
- Cautious Position of OPEC+: OPEC+ countries are in no rush to cut production again. Despite falling prices, official production quotas remain unchanged following prior cuts. As a result, additional OPEC+ oil continues to circulate in the market, and the organization aims to maintain its market share, allowing lower prices in the short term.
- Demand Slowdown: Global demand for oil is growing at a more modest pace. Analysts estimate that consumption growth in 2025 was less than 1 million bbl/day, compared to 2–3 million bbl/day the previous year. Economic growth in China and several developed countries has slowed to about 4% per year, limiting fuel consumption increases. High prices in prior years have also stimulated energy conservation and a shift toward alternative energy sources, cooling demand for hydrocarbons.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: The ongoing conflict and sanctions create contradictory factors for the oil market. On one hand, risks of supply disruptions due to sanctions or escalation of the conflict maintain a certain price premium. On the other hand, the absence of clear supply disruptions and reports of ongoing negotiations between major powers somewhat alleviate market fears. As a result, prices fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, lacking momentum for either growth or collapse.
Overall, supply now exceeds demand, creating a situation close to oversupply for the oil market. Global commercial oil and oil product inventories continue to rise. Brent and WTI quotes confidently remain below the highs of 2022–2023. Many investors and oil companies are factoring in "low" prices into their strategies: several forecasts indicate that in the first quarter of 2026, the average Brent price could drop to $55–60 per barrel if the current oversupply persists. Under these conditions, oil companies are focusing on cost control and selective investments, favoring short-term projects and initiatives in natural gas.
Natural Gas Market: Europe Endures Winter without Crisis
In the gas market, the primary focus is on Europe, where a relatively calm situation persists amidst the winter. EU countries entered the heating season with high inventories: by early January, the average filling level of European gas storage facilities exceeded 60% (compared to a record 70% a year prior). Even after several weeks of active gas withdrawals, the storage facilities remain more than half full, providing a buffer for the energy system. Favorable factors supporting the stability of the European gas market include:
- Record LNG Imports: The European Union is maximizing world capacities for liquefied natural gas. In 2025, total LNG imports into Europe increased by approximately 25%, reaching around 130 billion cubic meters annually, compensating for the cessation of most pipeline gas supplies from Russia. Throughout December, LNG vessels continued to arrive at EU terminals, covering increased winter demand.
- Moderate Demand and Mild Weather: As winter in Europe is relatively mild, the energy system is managing without extreme loads. Industrial gas consumption has remained restrained due to last year's high prices and energy-saving measures. Wind and solar generation performed well at the beginning of the 2025/26 winter season, thereby reducing gas consumption for electricity generation.
- Supply Diversification: The EU has recently developed new import routes for energy. In addition to LNG, pipelines from Norway and North Africa are operating at full capacity. The interconnection capacity within Europe has been expanded, allowing for the swift diversion of gas to regions in need. This smooths out local imbalances and prevents price spikes.
Thanks to these factors, exchange prices for gas in Europe are being held at relatively low levels. Futures at the TTF hub are trading around €30/MWh (approximately $370 per thousand cubic meters)—significantly lower than the peak values of the 2022 crisis. Although prices recently rose slightly (by 7–8%) due to brief cold weather and maintenance work at some fields, the market remains balanced overall. Moderate gas prices are favorably impacting European industries and energy sectors, reducing costs for businesses and tariff pressures on consumers. In the coming months, Europe will need to navigate the remaining winter months: even if the cold intensifies, the accumulated inventories are likely sufficient to avoid shortages. Analysts estimate that by the end of winter, gas storage levels could remain at about 35–40%, significantly above critical levels of previous years. However, some risk comes from a potential revival of Asian demand—competition between Europe and Asia for new LNG supplies may intensify in Q2 2026 if economic recovery continues in Asian countries.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Intensification of U.S. Measures and Stalemate in Negotiations
The geopolitical landscape continues to significantly impact energy markets. In recent months, diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in Eastern Europe have been made: since November 2025, a series of consultations have taken place among representatives from the U.S., EU, Ukraine, and Russia. However, thus far, these negotiations have not yielded substantial progress. Moscow still shows no willingness to make concessions, while Kyiv and its allies insist on acceptable security guarantees. Amidst the prolonged standoff, Washington signals its readiness to increase sanctions pressure.
New U.S. Sanctions Legislation. In early January, the Biden administration publicly supported a bipartisan bill proposing strict measures against countries that assist in circumventing sanctions or actively trade with Russia. Specifically, "secondary sanctions" are proposed—restrictions on buyers of Russian oil and gas. Major importers of Russian energy resources, such as China, India, Turkey, and several other Asian countries, may be impacted. Washington signals that if these countries do not reduce purchases from Moscow, they could face restrictions on access to American markets or 100% tariffs on their exports to the U.S. The bill has received a "green light" from the White House and may soon be put to a vote in Congress. For the global oil and gas market, such a step would be unprecedented: essentially, some buyers could find themselves under sanctions, potentially redistributing oil trade flows and complicating the price situation.
Market Reactions and Risks. Major consumers, particularly China and India, are in the spotlight. India has long enjoyed substantial discounts on Russian Urals oil (up to $5 off Brent prices) in exchange for maintaining purchase volumes—this "preferential" regime has allowed New Delhi to increase imports of Russian crude and petroleum products. China, for its part, has also increased imports from Russia, becoming the primary market for Russian oil following the European embargo. U.S. plans to impose secondary sanctions have drawn sharp disapproval from Beijing and New Delhi, with these countries asserting their intent to defend their energy security. If the legislation is enacted, they are likely to seek ways to circumvent the new restrictions—through transactions in national currencies, shadow tanker fleets, or processing Russian oil in third countries for re-export. Markets are watching the situation closely: the threat of sanctions adds uncertainty and could increase price volatility, particularly for Urals oil and in the tanker shipping market. For now, existing sanctions remain unchanged, and there have been no significant disruptions in the supply of Russian oil to the global market—volumes have been redirected to Asia, albeit at a discount.
U.S.-Russia Negotiations. Despite the tough rhetoric, the dialog channel between Washington and Moscow remains open. After the leaders' meeting in August 2025 (where it was decided to continue consultations), special representatives from both sides have discussed parameters for a potential agreement several times. In December, the U.S. offered a framework plan for Ukraine's security in exchange for a gradual easing of some energy sanctions, but Moscow demanded that its conditions be considered, including the lifting of certain export restrictions and guarantees regarding NATO’s military infrastructure. Thus far, these disagreements have not been resolved. Meanwhile, U.S. European allies have stated their willingness to continue pressuring Russia until the situation improves—new EU restrictions on maritime transportation of Russian oil products above the price ceiling have come into effect. Therefore, geopolitical tensions remain; the prospects for swift sanctions relief seem limited. For investors in the energy sector, this means that sanctions risks will continue to be a factor in planning trading operations and investments, particularly for projects related to Russia.
Venezuela: Course Change and Growth Potential in Oil Production
Another significant event that could impact the long-term dynamics of the oil market is the political changes in Venezuela. At the end of 2025, the situation surrounding this South American country changed drastically: President Nicolás Maduro's government effectively lost control after he was detained during a special operation with assistance from foreign forces. The U.S. has expressed support for the formation of a transitional administration in Caracas and intends to involve American oil companies in the restoration of Venezuela's oil sector. For years, the country, which possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves, struggled to produce less than 1 million barrels per day due to sanctions, lack of investment, and deteriorating infrastructure.
New political conditions open the prospect of gradually increasing Venezuelan oil production. Analysts estimate that with relative stability in the country and an influx of investments from the U.S. and other nations, production in Venezuela could increase by 200–300 thousand barrels per day in the next year or two. JPMorgan’s optimistic scenario projects production levels reaching 1.3–1.4 million barrels per day within two years (up from approximately 1.1 million in 2025), and a decade-long increase to 2.5 million barrels per day, contingent on the implementation of significant industry modernization projects. In the initial days following the power transition, there were reports of plans to conduct audits of PDVSA's fields and infrastructure and to engage international partners in restarting idle wells.
However, experts caution that quick results are not to be expected. The Venezuelan oil industry requires extensive upgrading—from repairing refineries to investing in port facilities. The required investments are estimated to be in the tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars. Additionally, questions about the legitimacy of the regime change and long-term political risks persist. Some nations—former allies of the previous regime—have condemned external interference; Russia, for example, has stated that control over Venezuelan oil should not pass to the U.S. This indicates that diplomatic tensions surrounding the Venezuelan issue are possible.
For the global market, an increase in exports from Venezuela in the coming months will be modest yet symbolically significant. The resumption of heavy Venezuelan oil supplies to U.S. refineries in the Gulf of Mexico under licenses granted by the new administration is already being observed. In the medium term, the additional Venezuelan volume could intensify competition in the heavy oil segment, which is currently dominated by OPEC. Goldman Sachs estimates that if Venezuela's production were to rise to 2 million barrels per day, it could lower the equilibrium price of Brent by $3–4 by 2030. While reaching such levels is still far off, investors are factoring in the emergence of a "new-old" player in the market. Overall, the situation in Venezuela adds yet another factor to global oversupply, reinforcing expectations that the period of relatively low oil prices may prolong.
Energy Transition: Record Green Generation and Role of Coal
The global energy landscape continues to shift towards low-carbon sources, although fossil fuels retain a significant share in the energy balance. The year 2025 was a record for renewable sources: according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), around 580 GW of new renewable capacity was installed worldwide. Over 90% of all new power plants launched last year operate on solar, wind, or hydropower. As a result, the share of renewable generation in electricity production reached historical highs in several countries.
Europe and the U.S. In the European Union, the share of electricity generated from renewables exceeded 50% for the first time by the end of the year. Wind farms in the North Sea, solar farms in Southern Europe, and bioenergy accounted for the primary growth. This allowed the EU to reduce the combustion of coal and gas for generation by 5% and 3%, respectively, compared to the previous year. The share of coal in the EU's energy balance has resumed its downward trajectory after a temporary spike in 2022–2023. In the U.S., the renewable energy sector has also reached new peaks: major solar facilities were launched in Texas and California, and wind installations throughout the Midwest were developed. As a result, nearly 25% of American electricity now comes from renewables—a historical maximum. Government initiatives and tax incentives (e.g., through the federal Inflation Reduction Act) are encouraging further investments in clean energy.
Asia and Emerging Markets. Rapid growth in renewable energy is also evident in China and India, though absolute consumption of fossil fuels continues to rise therein. China set a record by installing 130 GW of solar panels and 50 GW of wind energy in one year, bringing its total renewable capacity to 1.2 TW. However, the rapidly growing economy demands ever-increasing electricity: to avoid shortages, Beijing has concurrently ramped up coal production and coal-fired power plant construction. Consequently, China still generates around 60–65% of its electricity from coal. India faces a similar situation: while the country increases solar and wind capacities (over 20 GW were launched in 2025), over 70% of India's electricity continues to be generated from coal plants. To meet growing demand, New Delhi has approved the construction of new highly efficient coal blocks, despite climate goals. Many other developing economies in Asia and Africa (Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, etc.) are also balancing the development of renewable energy with the necessity to expand traditional generation to ensure base load.
Challenges for Energy Systems. The rapid growth in the share of solar and wind raises new challenges for energy providers. Periodic surges in renewable generation require the development of energy storage systems and backup capacities. In Europe and the U.S., during peak load hours or adverse weather conditions, grid operators must deploy gas and even coal plants to balance the system. In 2025, various countries experienced moments where due to calm weather at night, the share of renewables dropped, and traditional thermal power plants temporarily bore the main load. To enhance the flexibility of energy systems, projects for energy storage are being scaled up—ranging from industrial batteries to the production of "green" hydrogen for seasonal storage. Nevertheless, fossil fuels remain critically important for stable energy supply. Global coal demand is projected to remain near record levels in 2026 (around 8.8 billion tons annually) and is expected to begin a noticeable decline only towards the end of the decade, as the adoption of clean technologies accelerates and countries fulfill their climate commitments.
Refinery Market and Processing: Capacity Overcapacity Reduces Fuel Prices
The global refined products market at the beginning of 2026 is in a consumer-friendly condition. Prices for key fuel types—gasoline and diesel—remain at levels significantly below last year's figures, largely due to declining crude oil prices and increased supply from refineries. Throughout 2025, new refining capacities came online, intensifying competition among petroleum product producers and increasing the available volumes of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel on the international market.
Capacity Growth in Asia and the Middle East. Major investment projects in refining launched in recent years are beginning to yield results. In China, several modern refineries ("petrochemical complexes") have come online at full capacity, bringing the country's total installed capacity to approximately 20 million bbl/day—the largest figure worldwide. Beijing had aimed to limit national capacity to 1 billion tons per year (around 20 million bbl/day), and this threshold is now nearly reached. The surplus refining capacity domestically is already leading to many older smaller refineries operating at reduced loads or potentially closing in the coming years. In the Middle East, the massive Al-Zour refinery in Kuwait has been fully operational, and expansion projects in Saudi Arabia (including new complexes involving foreign partners) have begun. These new plants are targeted not only at domestic demand but also at exporting fuel—primarily to Asian countries and Africa, where demand for petroleum products is still growing.
Stabilization of the Diesel Market in Europe. The European Union, having endured tensions in the diesel market due to the cessation of Russian supplies during 2022–2023, managed to redirect logistics and avoid shortages in 2025. Diesel and jet fuel imports into Europe from the Middle East, India, China, and the U.S. increased, offsetting the loss of Russian exports. India’s refineries, obtaining discounted Russian oil, produce excess volumes of diesel fuel, a significant portion of which is then directed to Europe and African countries. This "diversion" has stabilized European diesel prices even during peak summer demand periods. Within the EU, refiners have also increased production: Mediterranean and Eastern European refineries operated at high capacity, partially compensating for the closure of some older plants in Western Europe. Consequently, wholesale diesel prices in Europe dropped by approximately 15% by the end of 2025 compared to the beginning of the year, helping to ease inflationary pressures.
Refining Margins and Prospects. The situation for refining companies is dual-faced: on one hand, cheaper crude oil decreases the input costs, while on the other, surplus fuel and competition reduce margins. Following record-high margins observed in 2022, refiners faced tightening conditions in 2025. The global average margin decreased, especially on diesel and fuel oil production. In Asia, due to a gasoline surplus, some refineries scaled back output and transitioned to producing petrochemical products with higher added value. In Europe, biofuel content requirements and environmental regulations are also raising costs for refineries, pushing the sector towards consolidation and modernization. It is anticipated that global refinery capacities will continue to grow in 2026—new projects are in the pipeline in East Africa and expanding refining in the U.S. This indicates that competition in the refined products market will remain high, and gasoline and diesel prices are likely to maintain relatively low levels unless there is a sharp increase in crude oil prices.
Outlook and Expected Events
At the beginning of 2026, investors and participants in the energy sector are closely assessing how key factors affecting prices and the supply-demand balance will develop. In the coming months, the dynamics of global fuel and energy markets will be influenced by the following moments:
- Sanction Decisions and the Course of the Conflict: Whether the new U.S. sanctions bill against buyers of Russian oil will be approved and implemented. Its consequences for the global market (potential supply reductions, redistribution of flows, and political responses from China/India) will become one of the main uncertainties. At the same time, markets will be monitoring any signals of progress or failure in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine—this directly affects sanctions policy and investor sentiment.
- OPEC+ Strategy: Attention will be focused on the oil alliance's policy. If oil prices continue to decline, an extraordinary meeting or revision of quotas may take place. The next ordinary OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for spring, and markets are awaiting potential measures to cut production to support prices or whether the cartel will allow prices to remain at relatively low levels to maintain market share.
- Economic Dynamics and Demand: The state of the global economy, particularly in China, the U.S., and the EU, will determine demand for energy resources. If economic growth sees a rebound in the latter half of 2026 or, for example, in industrial production in China following stimulus measures, this could elevate oil and LNG consumption, somewhat reducing oversupply. Conversely, recession risks or financial shocks could dampen fuel demand. Additionally, seasonal recoveries in air travel (jet fuel) and automobile traffic in spring and summer will also influence the refined products market.
- End of Winter and Preparation for the Next Season: Current winter outcomes for the gas market will dictate strategies for 2026. If Europe avoids energy deficit and maintains substantial gas reserves in storage, this will facilitate the task of filling storage for the next winter and may keep prices low. An important event will be the summer injection season of 2026: under expected increases in global LNG supply (with new projects launching in the U.S. and Qatar), Europe aims to reach 90% storage capacity by fall again. The market will evaluate whether this can be achieved without price spikes and fierce competition with Asian importers.
- Energy Transition and Corporate Investments: Observations will continue concerning how energy corporations are reallocating capital between fossil and renewable sectors. In 2026, a reduction in investments in oil production is anticipated in response to low prices—particularly among independent companies in North America and international majors emphasizing financial discipline. Concurrently, increased investments in LNG projects (boosting exports from North America and Africa) and in "green" energy are likely. Any new government initiatives on decarbonization (e.g., tightening climate targets at upcoming summits) or conversely, steps to support fossil fuel production, will directly impact long-term expectations regarding demand and prices.
Overall, industry experts give a cautiously optimistic outlook for consumers in 2026: the high supply of oil and gas should keep prices from spiking sharply. However, for producers, this means the necessity to adapt to a new reality—a period of lower margins and heightened attention to efficiency. Geopolitical factors remain a "wild card": unexpected events—whether breakthroughs in peace negotiations, major disruptions at production sites, or new trade wars—can instantly change the balance. Participants in the energy sector approach the new year with caution, building strategies capable of withstanding a range of potential scenarios.
