Global News on the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of January 26, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, and Oil Products. Analysis of Key Events and Trends in the Global Energy Market for Investors and Market Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of January 26, 2026, are marked by a combination of new seasonal challenges and ongoing geopolitical tensions, alongside a relatively balanced situation in the commodity markets. The cold weather in Europe is testing the capabilities of the energy system, rapidly increasing the demand for gas and putting pressure on fuel reserves. At the same time, the global oil market continues to grapple with an oversupply, even as specific risks and conflicts keep participants cautious. Peace negotiations regarding Ukraine provide a faint hope for easing sanctions, but the main restrictions remain in place. Meanwhile, investments in hydrocarbon production and the development of "green" energy continue at high levels, reflecting countries' efforts to ensure energy security and accelerate the transition to clean energy. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of the current date.
Global Oil Market: Oversupply and Cautious Demand Pressuring Prices
World oil prices at the end of January remain under moderate downward pressure, despite recent short-term spikes. The benchmark Brent blend is trading around $64–67 per barrel, while American WTI is around $59–61, approximately 15% lower than year-ago levels. As such, the market is maintaining relative stability following a post-crisis normalization of prices, although the balance remains fragile. The key influencing factors on the oil market are:
- OPEC+ Policy: After a prolonged period of increasing production, the oil alliance has paused its output ramp-up for the first time. During a meeting at the end of 2025, OPEC+ countries decided to maintain total production at current levels, cancelling scheduled increases in quotas for Q1 2026. This decision was made amid signs of an oversupply in the oil market and led to a slight increase in prices at the beginning of the year. However, OPEC+'s share of global supplies remains below previous highs, as the alliance has not fully restored lost positions during the period of rising quotas.
- Non-OPEC Production Growth: In parallel with OPEC+ actions, other producers are continuing to increase supply. Independent companies in the U.S. have ramped up shale production to a record ~13 million barrels per day, nearing historical highs. Significant contributions to global supply growth come from new projects in Latin America (Brazil, Guyana) and a recovery in production in Canada. As a result, global oil production is outpacing demand, forming excess inventories and pressuring the prices of oil and petroleum products.
- Global Demand: Oil consumption is increasing at a much slower rate than in previous years. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand growth in 2026 is expected to be around +0.9 million barrels per day (less than +1%), which is comparable to last year's figures and significantly below the growth rates of 2023. OPEC forecasts a similar dynamic (around +1.3 million barrels per day). Reasons for the subdued growth include a slowdown in the global economy (particularly a reduction in GDP growth in China and other major consumers) and energy-saving measures. High prices in previous years have stimulated improvements in efficiency and a shift to alternative sources, which also limits market appetites.
- Geopolitics and Finance: Geopolitical events continue to provide a backdrop for price fluctuations, but their impact is mitigated by the oversupply. This winter has seen heightened tensions in the Middle East: threats of military conflict surrounding Iran have caused a temporary rise in prices, while sudden political changes in Venezuela at the beginning of January led to a temporary halt in exports from the country. Moreover, interruptions have been noted in certain regions—such as drone attacks and technical issues that reduced production in Kazakhstan. However, the global market has reacted relatively calmly to these events: excess inventories and spare capacities of other producers have compensated for local losses. An additional stabilizing factor is the expectation of eased monetary policy in the U.S. and Europe if the economy continues to slow—this supports investor optimism and mitigates the pressure of a strong dollar on commodities. At the same time, the sanctions standoff between Russia and the West remains unresolved: despite cautious optimism regarding a possible peaceful settlement in Ukraine, the current restrictions on Russian oil and petroleum products remain intact. Russian Urals oil continues to be sold at a significant discount (around ~$40 per barrel, well below Brent quotes), reflecting export limitations and price caps. Overall, due to a combination of factors, oil prices are held within a narrow range, and the market requires a clear impetus—in the form of either a substantial output cut or a noticeable demand increase—to exit its state of equilibrium.
European Gas Market: Cold Weather Lowers Supplies and Causes Price Volatility
In the gas sector, Europe entered the year 2026 marked by a sharp change in sentiment—from fuel abundance to fighting the consequences of the cold. The European Union began the winter with unprecedentedly high gas reserves in underground storage (UGS): by early January, they were over 90% full, allowing exchange prices to drop to their lowest levels in a year (gas costs at the TTF hub temporarily fell to ~$330 per 1,000 m³, or about €28 per MWh). However, a prolonged cold snap affecting much of Europe in January has sharply increased energy demand. Withdrawal from storage reached record volumes—by January 21, reserves fell to approximately 47% capacity, significantly lower than the average levels from previous years at this date. Gas prices surged: since the beginning of the month, TTF quotes jumped by around 30%, rising from ~$34 (€29) to ~$45 (≈€39) per MWh. This is the steepest January increase in the last five years, driven by a combination of weather factors and global conditions. Nevertheless, even with this spike, European prices remain several times lower than peak levels during the crisis winter of 2021–2022, and high stocks in storage currently insulate the region from shortages. Let’s examine the key trends influencing the gas market:
- Minimizing Russian Imports: EU countries have virtually eliminated supplies of Russian pipeline gas over the past year. Russia's share in European import structure has dropped to 10–15% (down from over 40% before 2022). The missing volumes are successfully replaced through alternative channels: LNG imports from the U.S., Qatar, African nations, and the Middle East are operating at full capacity. The commissioning of new regasification terminals (in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and other countries) has expanded the infrastructure's capacity to receive LNG. As a result, Europe has diversified its sources and managed to accumulate a large gas reserve before winter without dependence on Gazprom.
- U.S.–EU LNG Agreement: The vast long-term deal between Washington and Brussels for American LNG supplies worth up to $750 billion from 2026 to 2028 is still being implemented slowly. This delay is largely due to market conditions: amid low prices last autumn, European importers purchased smaller volumes than anticipated based on agreements. From September to December 2025, gas supplies from the U.S. to the EU were estimated at around $29.6 billion, significantly lagging behind stated annual targets. Cheap gas in the spot market reduced the economic motivation to choose fixed long-term volumes. Now, with prices recovering this winter, we can expect an increase in supplies under contracts—demand for American LNG is rising again, and market participants are reassessing purchasing strategies to ensure UGS fillings ahead of the next heating season.
- Weather Factor: The current situation has shown that even record stocks are insufficient during extreme weather conditions. Abnormally cold weather in several regions of the Northern Hemisphere (Europe, North America, parts of Asia) has led to synchronized growth in gas demand, depleting reserves rapidly. If the cold persists, further price spikes may occur—in particular, traders have switched to bullish sentiments, actively buying gas futures in anticipation of rising prices. Meanwhile, Europe’s infrastructure is operating under increased strain: gas transport operators have increased withdrawals from UGS, and LNG suppliers are hastily redirecting tankers to European terminals despite fierce competition from Asian consumers. An additional consideration is environmental constraints: strict CO2 emission standards limit the capacity to increase domestic gas production in several EU countries. This means that during prolonged cold spells, Europe will be forced to rely on imports and past reserves, which sustains market volatility.
- Demand in Asia: Asian countries are also experiencing a winter spike in gas consumption, competing with Europe for LNG. China and India are actively increasing their LNG purchases to meet peak needs: northern provinces in China face heightened heating demand, while India is acquiring additional gas shipments for electricity generation. At the same time, China continues to boost its domestic gas production (in 2025, national gas output rose by about 6%, reaching new record volumes), but this is not sufficient to fully meet domestic demand, thus China remains the world’s largest gas importer. India, meanwhile, is taking advantage of the situation in the sanctions market and is boosting purchases of cheap Russian LNG alongside oil, strengthening its energy security and indirectly supporting global demand. Overall, the revival in Asian demand this winter exacerbates pressure on the global gas market, but thanks to high European stocks and flexible supply routes, significant shortages have been avoided.
International Context: Sanction Standoff and New Risks for Energy
Geopolitical factors continue to significantly impact global energy. There is a fragile equilibrium in relations between Russia and the West: on one hand, cautious negotiations for resolving the conflict in Ukraine began at the end of 2025, generating optimism regarding potential partial sanction relief. As a result, for instance, the European Union has so far postponed the introduction of new stringent measures (another sanctions package) in anticipation of diplomatic momentum. Certain dialogue channels, such as discussions on grain deals and prisoner exchanges, are maintained, signaling a desire to avoid further escalation. On the other hand, there are currently no fundamental breakthroughs: the main economic restrictions against the Russian energy sector remain in force, and Washington and Brussels emphasize their readiness to intensify pressure if political progress stalls. Investors are taking these risks into account: any information regarding negotiations or potential new sanctions immediately reflects on oil and gas contract quotes, forcing the market to navigate between hopes for de-escalation and concerns over escalating confrontation.
Beyond the Russian-Western axis, new geopolitical events have emerged that could impact energy. At the beginning of January, a political crisis erupted in Venezuela: President Nicolás Maduro was ousted amid internal unrest with indirect support from the U.S. This led to a temporary reduction in Venezuelan oil exports, as infrastructure and supplies became disorganized. Washington has urged international companies to invest in rebuilding Venezuela's oil industry, hoping for future increases in global supplies from this country, but in the short term, the market faced another factor of uncertainty. Concurrently, tensions in the Middle East have escalated: sharp rhetoric and exchanges of threats between the U.S. and Iran (against the backdrop of disputes over Tehran's nuclear program) have raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from the Persian Gulf region. Although a direct military confrontation has been avoided and production in Middle Eastern fields continues without significant disruptions, the risk premium in prices has slightly increased. Moreover, instability in several African countries may affect energy resource production (for example, internal conflicts in Nigeria and Libya periodically reduce oil exports). Thus, the international situation in early 2026 is characterized by a heightened level of uncertainty. So far, the global energy market is sufficiently "buffered" by excess reserves to withstand individual shocks, but further escalation of conflicts or failure of diplomatic efforts could change this balance and lead to new price spikes. Market participants are closely monitoring news from the geopolitical front, aware that political decisions can swiftly alter the power dynamics on the world's energy map.
Asia: Rising Domestic Production in China and Steady Resource Imports in India
- China: The largest economy in Asia is confidently increasing its domestic hydrocarbon production, setting new records. In 2025, China exceeded 4.3 million barrels per day in oil production, while annual gas production reached an all-time high (growth of about +6% from the previous year). Beijing is actively investing in expanding refining capacities (refineries) and developing the energy sector, including the construction of new thermal power plants and renewable energy facilities, aiming to reduce dependence on imports. Simultaneously, the government is investing in exploring new fields and enhanced oil recovery technologies to secure long-term energy security. The economic slowdown observed in China in 2025 resulted in only moderate growth in domestic energy demand. Nevertheless, China remains the world's largest importer of oil and gas, continuing to purchase significant volumes of raw materials from abroad to meet its extensive needs.
- India: The second most populous country in the world continues its course towards providing the economy with affordable energy resources, balancing external pressures and national interests. Despite calls from the U.S. to reduce cooperation with Russia and sanctions imposed by Western countries, Indian refineries continue to actively buy Russian oil. In December 2025, oil supplies from Russia to India were estimated at over 1.2 million barrels per day (after a record ~1.77 million in November when Indian refineries were eager to secure cheap raw materials before new sanctions came into force). Thus, Russia has solidified its status as a key supplier to the Indian market, offering raw materials at significant discounts. Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks with President Vladimir Putin at the end of the year, reaffirming the commitment to long-term energy partnership between the two countries. At the same time, India is striving to develop its own production: national programs for deep-water oil and gas field exploration are being realized, and coal production for energy needs is increasing. However, growth in domestic production is not rapid enough to fully cover rising demand, so New Delhi will continue to rely on imports, taking advantage of favorable opportunities in the global market—including purchases of cheap energy resources from sanctioned suppliers—to meet the needs of its economy.
- Southeast Asia: Countries in this region, whose economies require inexpensive electricity for industrial growth, continue to bet on traditional energy resources, primarily coal. Despite global environmental trends, coal power generation continued to expand in Southeast Asia in 2025. New coal power plants are being commissioned in Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and several other nations to satisfy the growing demand for electricity. The governments of these countries emphasize that the high demand for cheap and reliable energy currently prevents them from fully abandoning coal, even with renewable energy development programs underway. Simultaneously, infrastructure modernization is taking place, and plans for "greening" energy are being discussed for the future, but for the immediate years, coal will maintain a key role in the energy balance of the region. In addition to coal, Southeast Asian countries are also increasing LNG imports to diversify energy sources (for example, Thailand and Bangladesh are actively building LNG terminals). Thus, the Asian continent overall combines rising domestic production with increased imports, remaining the primary driver of global demand for traditional energy resources.
Renewable Energy: Record Global Investments and Integration into Energy Systems
The global energy transition continues to gather momentum, setting new benchmarks. By the end of 2025, the world added a record volume of renewable energy capacity—around 750 GW of new installations (totaling solar, wind, and other “green” generation). Investments in clean energy reached an all-time high, surpassing $2 trillion for the year, indicating a persistent interest from governments and businesses in this sector. The commissioning of new solar power plants (SPPs) and wind farms (WPPs) is providing an increasingly significant share of electricity generation in various countries. For example, preliminary data suggests that in the EU, in 2025, the combined generation from solar and wind for the first time exceeded generation from coal-fired power plants, marking a turnaround initiated following the crisis of 2022–2023. Similar trends are evident in other regions: in the U.S., renewable sources generated over 30% of electricity in early 2025, while China set another record for the annual installation of new renewable energy capacities. At the same time, the mass adoption of “green” energy is posing a number of practical challenges for energy systems, as evidenced in the past year. Key features of the current stage of the energy transition include:
- The Need for Reserves and Hybrid Solutions: Despite rapid growth in the share of renewables, traditional sources—coal, gas, and nuclear energy—remain essential elements of the energy balance to ensure stability. According to experts, global energy consumption in 2025 was still covered by fossil fuels by approximately 80%. The problem of the intermittency of renewable sources (when the sun does not shine at night, and the wind dies down) forces countries to maintain backup capacities. During peak load periods or unfavorable weather conditions, energy systems still rely on gas and even coal-fired power plants to avoid blackouts. Last winter, several European countries temporarily increased generation from coal-fired power plants during periods of insufficient wind energy, underscoring the role of "classic" plants as a safety buffer. To enhance reliability, many countries are investing in energy storage systems—industrial batteries, pumped hydroelectric storage—and developing smart grids capable of flexibly managing loads. All these measures aim to improve energy supply resilience as the share of renewables increases.
- Regional Differences: Leading the charge in renewable technology deployment are the developed countries of the West and China. The EU and the U.S. have adopted extensive incentive programs: subsidies and tax breaks for the accelerated construction of renewables and localization of equipment production (e.g., the American IRA Act and European climate financing initiatives). At the same time, Western nations are not foregoing the precautionary measures—strategic reserves of oil and gas remain in place for emergency use. China is following its unique path, combining renewable energy development with an increase in traditional generation’s basic capacities: parallel to the commissioning of thousands of megawatts of solar panels and wind turbines, Beijing is constructing new hydro and nuclear power plants. This approach allows China to balance its energy systems and meet increasing demand without solely relying on variable sources. In developing countries, the pace of transition is more measured: limited investment capabilities and the need for affordable energy compel them to continue utilizing fossil fuels longer, although initial large-scale renewable energy projects supported by international organizations are emerging there as well.
- Impact on the Electricity Market: The rapid increase in generation from renewables is already altering market structures. During certain hours when solar and wind production is at its peak, there are surpluses of electricity, resulting in wholesale prices falling to negative values. Such episodes were recorded in 2025 in Europe (for example, in Germany during windy spring days) and in some provinces of China. Cheap or even "free" energy during peak hours stimulates consumers and businesses to shift to flexible consumption schedules, while operators are encouraged to develop storage infrastructure (batteries, hydrogen technologies) to retain excess electricity. Additionally, the phased decarbonization of the economy is expanding the market for carbon quotas and taxes, motivating companies to reduce emissions and invest in clean technologies. Overall, last year's results confirm the sustainability of the energy transition trend: the proportion of renewable sources in global energy supply is steadily increasing. Experts forecast that by 2026–2027, the total generation from renewables could surpass coal electricity generation at the global level for the first time. However, in the immediate years, there is a need to maintain balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources to ensure energy systems operate reliably under any scenario.
Coal Market: Stable Demand and a Steady Path Towards "Greening"
Despite efforts to reduce emissions, coal in 2025 once again demonstrated stable demand, particularly in Asia. Global coal consumption reached record levels—around 8.8 billion tons for the year, which is ~0.5% more than in 2024. This dynamic reflects a complex balance between developed countries decreasing coal usage and developing economies increasing its consumption to support growth. The primary demand growth has been driven by the Asian region, while consumption in Europe and North America has decreased. The current coal market situation is characterized by the following points:
- China and India: The two largest developing economies continue to actively use coal for electricity generation and steel production. In China, despite the closure of some outdated coal mines and the declared goal of reaching peak emissions by the end of the decade, new modern coal-fired power plants are being built—the combined capacity of launched or under-construction units exceeds 50 GW. India is also rapidly expanding coal generation, aiming to meet the rising energy demand from industry and households. The governments of both countries emphasize that coal will remain a crucial energy source for their economies in the coming years, although programs for renewable energy development and improving the efficiency of coal-fired power plants (such as implementing emissions control technologies) are being realized simultaneously.
- Exporters and Prices: Key global coal suppliers—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—maintained high levels of production and export in 2025 to satisfy Asian buyers' demand. Following the sharp price increases in 2022–2023, the global coal market stabilized: prices for thermal coal (Newcastle benchmark) remain in the range of $120–140 per ton, significantly below the peaks of two years ago but still ensuring profitability for mining and trading. Coal reserves at terminals in major importing countries (China, India, Japan) are at comfortable levels, preventing panic price spikes even during temporary disruptions. For example, the rainy season in Indonesia or logistical challenges in Australia no longer trigger price surges as experienced during the crisis due to established reserves and diversified supply routes.
- Policies of Developed Countries: In the U.S., EU countries, and the U.K., the trend towards abandoning coal generation is ongoing. In 2025, the share of coal in electricity production in the West fell by double-digit rates—old plants are being decommissioned at an accelerated pace, and new projects are being blocked by environmental standards and economic impracticality (renewable energy and gas are often cheaper). The European Commission and governments are imposing increasingly stringent restrictions on CO2 emissions, making it expensive to maintain coal capacities. As a result, coal consumption in energy production in Europe has dropped to its lowest levels in several decades. In the U.S., a similar trend is observed: several states have announced plans for the complete closure of coal-fired power plants by the 2030s. However, the global effect of these measures is being offset by the growth in Asia—reductions in demand in the West are being balanced by increases in coal burning in developing countries. Thus, world coal consumption remains around record levels, although the initial steps toward long-term reduction are evident. In the future, as renewable energies become cheaper and energy storage systems are improved, the global economy's dependence on coal is expected to decrease, but the transition period will extend over several years.
Russian Oil Products Market: Extension of Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
As of early 2026, the domestic market for oil products in Russia remains relatively calm, achieved through government intervention in the latter half of the previous year. Following a spike in gasoline and diesel prices last summer, authorities implemented a set of urgent measures that continue to be in effect. These steps allowed for the saturation of the domestic fuel market, reduced wholesale prices, and prevented shortages during the peak demand season. Key measures and their developments include:
- Export Restrictions on Fuel: The government has extended the ban (and quota system) on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel, imposed in the fall of 2025, for an indefinite period until the market stabilizes. Most oil companies are still prohibited from exporting motor fuel abroad, except for deliveries under intergovernmental agreements and contracts for allied countries. This has redirected significant volumes of gasoline and diesel to the domestic market, increasing supply at gas stations and wholesale bases. As a result, wholesale fuel prices, which peaked in September, have started to decline and are now considerably below those highs.
- Adjustment of the Dampening Mechanism: From October 1, 2025, the formula for calculating the fuel damping mechanism (compensatory payments to oil companies for domestic fuel sales) was temporarily revised. For the period until spring 2026, the government decided not to consider the "deviation from the base price" in the calculation of damping for gasoline and diesel, effectively increasing payments to oil refineries. This measure enhanced the economic incentives for refineries to supply the domestic market and contributed to the decline in exchange prices. For example, according to data from the Saint Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, the wholesale price of AI-95 gasoline in mid-January 2026 was approximately 8–10% lower than the peak values of September 2025. Thus, financial mechanisms have functioned effectively: producers receive compensation for the lost export revenue, while consumers enjoy more stable prices at gas stations.
- Current Situation and Prospects: In early 2026, the internal fuel market in Russia is in a balanced state. Wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel are either stable or continue to decline slightly. Stocks of oil products in distribution networks and tanks are sufficient to cover demand in the winter months, and there are no significant supply disruptions. The government states that the situation is under control: production, export, and world market prices are being monitored in collaboration with companies. In the event of a sharp increase in world oil prices (which could spark a new outflow of fuel for export), authorities are ready to promptly introduce additional restrictions or duties to prevent spikes in domestic prices. Simultaneously, gradual lifting of the restrictions is being considered, contingent on the market stabilizing and becoming saturated—potentially through phased lifting of the export ban for specific companies under the condition of ensuring domestic sales. For now, however, a regime of manual control remains in place. For investors and industry participants, these measures mean predictability in domestic market price conditions, albeit limiting companies' export capabilities. Overall, a combination of administrative restrictions and subsidization has allowed for the passage of the autumn-winter period without a fuel crisis, and Russia demonstrates readiness to continue using non-market tools in pursuit of price stability for gasoline and diesel within the country.
