Current News in the Oil and Gas Sector and Energy as of November 26, 2025: Oil, Gas, Renewables, Energy Policy, Sanctions, Fuel and Energy Complex, Global Commodity Markets, Analytics, and Key Events of the Day.
Global Oil Market
Following a recent sell-off, oil prices are holding at their lowest levels in months. A barrel of Brent is trading around $62–63, while WTI is approximately $58. The market is pressured by a combination of factors: a significant increase in U.S. oil inventories, cautious demand forecasts from the IEA and EIA, along with geopolitical signals. Intensified negotiations for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine have alleviated supply disruption fears, further pulling prices down.
- Inventories and Demand: According to the U.S. Department of Energy, commercial oil inventories in the country surged by 6.4 million barrels over the past week—far exceeding expectations. Analysts highlight the risk of market oversaturation: the IEA estimates that by 2026, global oil supply could exceed demand by approximately 4 million barrels per day, potentially leading to a significant surplus.
- OPEC+ Decision: In early November, OPEC+ countries agreed to only a minor increase in production—137,000 barrels per day in December—while opting to refrain from further quota increases in the first quarter of 2026 due to concerns about oversupply. Simultaneously, new Western sanctions complicate the growth of Russian production: U.S. and U.K. restrictions have primarily impacted "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL," curtailing investments.
Sanctions and Russian Oil Exports
As of November 21, U.S. sanctions against the largest Russian oil companies have come into effect. These measures targeting "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL" could theoretically remove up to 48 million barrels of Russian oil from the global market. Russian export flows are already experiencing disruptions: several tankers carrying Urals, ESPO, and other grades have been redirected or delayed. Indian refineries have begun chartering tankers for crude supply from the Persian Gulf to replace Russian volumes.
Meanwhile, financial institutions in Asia are seeking ways to circumvent the restrictions. According to sources, Indian banks have developed a special payment mechanism allowing payment for Russian oil in alternative currencies—UAE dirhams and Chinese yuan—provided the sellers are not under sanctions. Previously, some Indian processors temporarily halted purchases; however, the increase in the discount for Urals to approximately $7 per barrel is prompting them to resume imports on new terms. The largest Indian oil refiner, Indian Oil, has already stated that it will continue to purchase crude from Russia from companies not affected by sanctions.
- Price Consequences: So far, the sanctions pressure has led to Russian oil being sold at record discounts, stimulating demand from Asian refineries for Urals. However, starting January 16, the European Union will fully implement a ban on the import of petroleum products made from Russian oil (the ICE exchange will stop accepting "Russian" diesel and gasoline for delivery). This is expected to create a shortage in the fuel market and sustain high margin revenues for providers of alternative supplies.
Diesel Market and Petroleum Products
The petroleum products market is experiencing ongoing tension: diesel prices remain elevated. Over the past week, diesel quotes fell only slightly, remaining approximately 8% higher than at the end of October. The main reason is the global diesel deficit. Russia, the second-largest exporter of diesel fuel globally, has reduced shipments to record low levels amid sanctions and attacks on refineries. In October, Russian diesel exports fell to about 669,000 barrels per day—the lowest level since 2020. Previously, "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" jointly supplied around 270,000 barrels of diesel per day (approximately 37% of Russian exports and 9% of global supply)—these volumes have now effectively dropped out of the market.
European and Asian refineries, previously reliant on cheap Russian crude, are being forced to restructure their supply chains and reduce purchases from Russia. As a result, diesel refining margins have significantly increased. American refiners have boosted diesel exports to Europe, increasing their profit per barrel by approximately 12%. Even if there is a geopolitical easing, it is unlikely that the EU will quickly lift restrictions on Russian energy resources—thus, the diesel deficit and high fuel costs are expected to persist.
European Gas Market
Natural gas prices in Europe continued to decline, reaching multi-year lows. On November 24, gas prices at the TTF hub for December delivery fell below €30 per MWh (approximately $355 per 1,000 m³)—the first time this has happened since May 2024. Pressure on the market has been fueled by optimism surrounding a potential peace plan for Ukraine. Market participants assume that if progress is made in peace initiatives, the EU may soften its approach to purchasing Russian LNG, removing part of the "risk premium" from prices. It is worth noting that even before the conflict, Russia accounted for up to 45% of the EU's gas imports; this share has now decreased to approximately 10%. While Brussels has formally set a target to completely halt gas imports from Russia by the end of 2027, several countries (Hungary, Slovakia) contest the tight deadlines.
- Inventories and Demand: Despite low prices, Europe is seeing record rates of gas withdrawal from underground storage facilities. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, between November 19-21, European countries were pulling unprecedented volumes of gas daily from storage. By November 21, storage levels had fallen below 80%—one of the lowest readings for this date in the past decade. Should prolonged cold weather occur, current inventories may not suffice to consistently meet the demands of residential and industrial consumers.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
- Imports from the U.S.: In 2025, the European Union set a new record for purchasing American energy resources—around $200 billion—including liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear fuel. The share of the U.S. in EU LNG imports has risen to 60%. Brussels is actively entering into long-term contracts for the supply of American LNG, further reducing dependence on alternative sources.
- Projects and Risks: New challenges are brewing in the global LNG market. In Australia, union workers in the LNG sector have initiated a strike at the expanding Pluto facility (operated by Woodside Energy), demanding equal pay with a similar project at Wheatstone. If the strike takes place, the launch of additional LNG export capacity will be delayed at least until the end of 2026. Such disruptions heighten tensions in the gas market: in 2023, strikes at Australian export terminals have already caused price spikes due to shifts in supply flows.
Energy Partnership between Russia and China
The VII Russia-China Energy Business Forum has commenced in Beijing, marking a new stage of cooperation between the two countries in the fuel and energy complex. Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a welcome address to forum participants, expressed readiness to deepen comprehensive energy partnership, emphasizing the contribution of bilateral cooperation to the stability of global energy supply chains. The Russian side highlighted China's impressive achievements: Igor Sechin, head of "Rosneft," referred to China as the only remaining "industrial superpower" in the world and a great energy power. According to him, China is shaping a new landscape in global energy by combining traditional and alternative energy sources.
Instances of Chinese leadership in the sector are noteworthy. The volume of electricity generation in China now exceeds that of the U.S. by more than double (two decades ago, the reverse was true). China accounts for about one-third of all global energy investments—anticipated to reach $900 billion in 2025, which is 30% greater than total investments in North America and 1.5 times that of Europe. Rapid electrification and technological development have propelled China to the top position in global energy consumption. To meet growing needs, Beijing is placing particular emphasis on energy security and infrastructure.
A practical step in advancing cooperation has been progress in the gas sector. "Gazprom" and China's CNPC have begun the joint construction of a cross-border section of the gas pipeline along the "Far Eastern" route—across the Ussuri River at the border of the two countries. This project is being implemented under a 2023 agreement and is expected to deliver up to 12 billion cubic meters of gas annually to China (following a recent increase in planned volumes from the initial 10 billion). A 25-kilometer branch from the "Sakhalin – Khabarovsk – Vladivostok" mainline will be constructed, equipped with a gas drying facility and a measuring station in the Dalnerechensk area. The start of exports through the new pipeline is expected by the end of January 2027, which will strengthen the position of Russian gas in the Asian market.
Energy Policy and Renewable Resources
- COP30 (UN): At the UN Climate Summit COP30 in Brazil, member countries could not agree on a swift phase-out of fossil resources. The final declaration excluded a point on the gradual cessation of the use of oil, gas, and coal, meaning there is no longer an official commitment to abandon these fuels. This wording reflects a compromise between states advocating for a gradual transition to clean energy and major hydrocarbon-exporting countries defending their economic interests.
- G20 Declaration: Leaders of the G20 at the summit in Johannesburg emphasized energy security. In a joint statement, they emphasized the need for stable supplies of fossil fuels and noted that the risks of sanctions on the energy market must be considered. At the same time, G20 countries reaffirmed their commitment to climate goals: the document records a commitment to triple total renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency in the global economy by 2030.
- Renewable Project: Despite political differences, various countries continue to pursue "green" energy projects. In Germany, the company Statkraft launched the country's largest hybrid power plant, combining 46.4 MW of solar panels and a 57 MWh energy storage battery. This facility has the capacity to provide electricity to about 14,000 homes, reducing CO₂ emissions by approximately 32,000 tons annually. In India, the company ReNew Power has secured $331 million from the Asian Development Bank for the construction of a 2.8 GW hybrid energy complex (solar and wind stations with an energy storage unit), capable of delivering 300 MW of stable "green" power 24/7. Such projects increase grid reliability while promoting the global energy transition.
Major Deals and Investments
- Saudi Aramco: Saudi Arabia's state oil company plans one of the largest deals in its history—the sale of stakes in export terminals and oil storage facilities. This operation is expected to raise over $10 billion, which will be directed towards production development, including the massive gas project "Jafura." Concurrently, Aramco is continuing an active investment program to expand oil and gas production, adhering to a strategy of increasing market presence.
Overall, by the end of November 2025, global energy markets remain in a state of unstable equilibrium influenced by diverging factors. On one hand, progress in peace negotiations and enhanced international cooperation (for instance, the deepening partnership between Russia and China) mitigate the geopolitical premium in prices and soften disruption risks. On the other hand, sanctions barriers and structural issues in certain segments (especially in the diesel and gas markets) continue to support local deficits and high volatility. Participants in the fuel and energy complex must closely monitor the progress of diplomatic initiatives, regulatory decisions, and major investment projects—as these will define the future dynamics of demand, supply, and prices in the sector.
