Global Energy News as of February 10, 2026: Dynamics of Oil and Gas Prices, OPEC+ Decisions, LNG Market, Oil Products and Refineries, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Coal. Summary and Analysis for Investors and Market Participants.
The global energy sector at the beginning of 2026 demonstrates relative stability, despite conflicting factors. Oil prices are holding at a moderate level, and the market is balancing between an anticipated supply surplus and persistent geopolitical risks. Europe is experiencing volatility in the gas market due to low inventories and weather-related factors, while the energy transition is gaining momentum: renewable energy sources (RES) are hitting records in deployment, and coal has reached peak demand. Below are key news and trends in the oil and gas sector and energy on the current day.
Global Oil Market: Surplus and Price Stability
The oil market entered 2026 showing signs of oversupply. According to the IEA, a significant oil surplus is expected in the first quarter – up to 4 million barrels per day (about 4% of global demand). This is due to total oil production increasing faster than demand: OPEC+ countries had already ramped up shipments in 2025, as did the U.S., Brazil, Guyana, and other producers. As a result, global inventories may start to rise, exerting downward pressure on prices.
However, oil prices remain relatively stable for now. Since the beginning of the year, Brent prices have increased by approximately 5-6%, partly due to geopolitical concerns. Brent is trading in the range of $60-65 per barrel, while WTI is around $55-60 per barrel, close to levels seen in late 2025. Several risk factors are preventing the market from declining: in early January, the U.S. detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, urging oil companies to invest in the country's production. In the short term, this caused supply disruptions of Venezuelan oil. Additionally, Washington hinted at the possibility of strikes against Iran's oil infrastructure, and production in Kazakhstan has decreased due to technical issues and drone attacks on fields. These events are creating a geopolitical premium in oil prices and supporting investor interest.
To maintain balance, OPEC+ is following a cautious strategy. The cartel and its allies, including Russia, decided to pause after a series of production increases: the decision was made to maintain quotas without growth at least until the end of March 2026. Major exporters aim to prevent market oversaturation: they estimate that the fundamental market indicators are "healthy," commercial oil inventories remain relatively low, and the goal is to maintain price stability. If necessary, OPEC+ reserves the right to quickly adjust production – either increasing (returning previously cut volumes of 1.65 million barrels per day) or cutting further if market conditions require it. Meanwhile, global oil demand continues to grow modestly: the forecast for global demand in 2026 has been improved to ~0.9-1.0 million barrels per day increase due to the normalization of the economy and lower prices than a year ago. Overall, the oil market enters the year with fragile equilibrium: the expected surplus is mitigated by OPEC+ efforts and threats of supply disruptions, keeping oil within a relatively narrow price corridor.
Natural Gas Market: Low Inventories and High Volatility
The global gas market at the start of 2026 is experiencing significant fluctuations, especially in Europe. After a calm autumn, where prices remained in a narrow range (€28-30 per MWh at the TTF hub), volatility returned in January. In the first weeks of the new year, gas prices in the EU sharply increased – peaking on January 16 when quotes exceeded €37 per MWh. This was due to a combination of factors: forecasts of colder weather and the approach of severe frosts at the end of January increased demand, while gas supply levels were significantly below normal. By mid-January, European underground gas storage levels had dropped to ~50% of capacity (compared to ~62% a year earlier and a 5-year average of 67% for that date). This is the lowest level of filling in recent years (following the crisis winter of 2021/22), and market participants realized that without active imports, Europe faces substantial reserve depletion.
Additionally, gas prices were influenced by disruptions in LNG supplies from the U.S. at the beginning of the year due to technical and weather-related issues, as well as geopolitical risks – increased tensions surrounding Iran. Concurrently, demand for LNG in Asia rose due to colder weather, intensifying competition for spot fuel supplies. Collectively, these factors prompted traders to close short positions, driving prices up. However, by the end of January, the situation stabilized somewhat: after the first cold spell passed, prices retreated to ~€35 per MWh. Analysts note that volatility has returned to the EU gas market, although panic peaks akin to those witnessed in 2022 have not yet been observed.
- Low inventories: As of the end of January, EU storage facilities are filled to only about 45% (the lowest level for this time of year since 2022). If withdrawals continue at the current pace, inventories may drop to 30% or lower by the end of winter. This means it will be necessary to inject around 60 billion cubic meters of gas during the summer to reach the 90% filling target by November 1 (the EU's new energy security goal).
- LNG imports: The main resource for replenishing inventories will be imported LNG supplies. Over the past year, Europe increased its LNG purchases by ~30%, reaching a record ~175 billion cubic meters. In 2026, this figure is expected to continue growing: the IEA predicts global LNG production will rise by ~7%, reaching new all-time highs. New export terminals in North America (U.S., Canada, Mexico) are coming online, with a total of up to 300 billion cubic meters of new capacity planned by 2025-2030 (approximately +50% of the current market volume). This will help partially compensate for lost Russian volumes.
- Phasing out Russian gas: The EU officially intends to completely halt imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG by 2027. Already, Russia's share of European imports has dropped to ~13% (down from 40-45% prior to 2022). In 2025-2026, the embargo will be tightened, further reducing gas supply in Europe by tens of billions of cubic meters. This deficit is planned to be covered by LNG from the U.S., Qatar, Africa, and other sources. However, analysts warn that this dependence on transatlantic supplies carries risks: according to IEEFA research, the U.S. accounted for 57% of LNG supplies to the EU in 2025, and that share could rise to 75-80% by 2030, contradicting diversification goals.
- Price anomalies: Interestingly, the forward price structure for gas in Europe currently shows an inverse situation – summer 2026 contracts are trading higher than winter 2026/27 contracts. This backwardation contradicts typical logic (where winter gas should be more expensive than summer gas) and may impede storage operators from justifying injections economically. Possible explanations include market expectations of stable year-round LNG supplies or anticipation of governmental intervention (subsidies, mandates for filling storage). However, experts caution that if price signals do not normalize and storage tanks are not filled to adequate levels, Europe risks entering the next winter without sufficient buffer, which could lead to a renewed spike in prices.
Overall, the natural gas market remains resource-endowed but is extremely sensitive to weather and political changes. Significant efforts will be required to replenish stocks in the summer, with much depending on global LNG trading dynamics and EU-level coordination measures. For now, the current softness in prices (compared to the crisis year of 2022) reflects a certain calm among traders – but this calm may prove deceptive if winter lingers or new supply disruptions occur.
Oil Products and Refining (Refineries)
The oil products segment at the beginning of the year is experiencing mixed trends. On one hand, global demand for oil products, particularly jet fuel and diesel, remains high due to economic recovery and transportation resurgence. On the other hand, product supply is increasing due to enhanced refining in Asia and the Middle East, although this is impacted by sanctions and incidents. Traditionally, global refineries enter maintenance season in the early months of the year, with many refining units halting for scheduled repairs. Consequently, total refining in Q1 declines, temporarily reducing oil demand and contributing to an increase in crude oil surplus. The IEA notes that the upcoming mass servicing of refineries exacerbates oil redundancy in the market – without additional production cuts, it will be hard to avoid inventory accumulation during this period.
At the same time, refining margins remain relatively good. By the end of 2025, global refining capacities operated at high utilization rates: for example, oil refining in China set a record, averaging ~14.8 million barrels per day (over the full year of 2025, +600,000 barrels compared to 2024). This is due to new facilities coming online and China's efforts to boost oil product exports. South Korea also achieved record diesel exports in 2025 – Asian producers are filling the niche created by the redistribution of flows from Russia. Strong demand for diesel fuel (especially in the transportation and industrial sectors) supports high prices for distillates and profits for refineries focused on diesel output. Conversely, the gasoline market is experiencing some softening: excess capacity and slowing growth in vehicle traffic have led to gasoline margins in Asia and Europe declining to their lowest levels in the past year. However, this situation might change with the upcoming summer driving season.
Russian Oil Products and Sanctions: It is also worth noting the altered flow of Russian oil products to global markets under the influence of sanction pressure. At the end of 2025, the U.S. imposed additional sanctions against major Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil, complicating the trade of their refined products. According to industry sources, the export of Russian fuel oil to Asia slowed in early 2026: increased enforcement of sanctions and fears of secondary measures have led many buyers to avoid direct deals. The volume of fuel oil supplies to Asian countries in January decreased for the third consecutive month and was about half of last year's level (around 1.2 million tons versus 2.5 million tons in January 2025). Some shipments are being redirected to warehouses and floating storage in anticipation of resale, while some tankers are taking longer routes around Africa, obscuring their intended destinations. Traders report that the sales scheme for Russian products has become more complex – multilayered chains with transshipments in neutral waters are often used to mask the origin of the fuel.
Additionally, military actions have also reduced exports of products from Russia: Ukrainian drone strikes on border oil refineries in late 2025 damaged several installations, reducing output. As a result, Russian fuel oil and other heavy oil products supply in the Asian market decreased slightly at the start of 2026, which even provided some support for regional prices for these fuel types. Nevertheless, key sales directions for Moscow remain Southeast Asian countries, China, and the Middle East – the major volumes continue to head there while Western sanctions prevent a return to traditional markets.
Overall, the global oil products market is gradually readjusting to the new geography. Most of the growth in refining capacity in the coming years will take place in the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East, and Africa – with up to 80-90% of new refineries being built there. This intensifies competition for fuel markets. In Europe, on the other hand, several plants have reduced operational indicators due to high energy prices and halting supplies of cheap Russian crude. The EU completely banned imports of Russian oil products as early as 2023, and over the past two years, European refineries have refocused on other oil grades, though at the cost of increased expenses. By the end of winter 2026, prices for major oil products are at a relatively stable level: diesel fuel remains steadily high due to limited global supply, while gasoline and fuel oil prices exhibit moderate dynamics. The upcoming exit of refineries from maintenance in spring may increase product supply, but much will depend on the seasonal demand and the state of the global economy.
Coal: Record Demand and Signs of Decline
Despite the rapid growth of renewable energy, coal continues to play a significant role in the global energy landscape. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal demand reached a historic peak in 2025 – around 8.85 billion tons per year (equivalent to ~+0.5% compared to 2024). Thus, coal consumption set a record for the second consecutive year, largely due to post-pandemic economic recovery and increased electricity demand. However, experts caution that this peak might form a "plateau": global coal consumption is expected to slowly yet steadily decline by the end of the decade.
Trends vary by region. In China, the largest coal consumer (accounting for more than half of global volumes), coal usage in 2025 remained consistently high, with a slight forecasted decline by 2030 due to the significant introduction of RES and nuclear power stations. India, the second-largest market, surprisingly reduced coal burning in 2025 – the third such occurrence in 50 years. This was facilitated by extremely strong monsoons: abundant rainfall filled reservoirs, and record hydropower generation lessened the need for coal-fired generation, along with a slowdown in industrial growth. Meanwhile, the U.S. increased coal consumption in 2025 – this rise is attributed to high natural gas prices, making coal generation more economically feasible in some regions. Additionally, the political factor played its part: President Donald Trump, who took office in early 2025, signed an executive order supporting coal power plants, preventing their closure, and stimulating production. This measure temporarily revived the U.S. coal sector, although its long-term competitiveness is diminishing.
In Europe, coal usage continued to decline in 2025, as EU countries strive to meet climate goals and substitute coal with gas and RES. The share of coal in electricity generation in the EU fell below 15%, with this trend accelerating after 2022 when Europe abruptly cut its imports of Russian coal (from 50% to 0% of consumption). Overall, the IEA believes that global coal consumption will plateau in the coming years before beginning to decline: renewable sources, natural gas, and nuclear energy will gradually displace coal from the energy mix, especially in electricity generation. Already in 2025, global RES generation matched coal generation for the first time in volume. However, the transition will be gradual. Experts warn that if electricity demand rises more quickly or delays occur in the commissioning of clean capacities, the demand for coal could temporarily exceed forecasts. Much depends on China, which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined: any fluctuations in the Chinese economy are instantly reflected in the coal market.
For now, the coal industry is faring reasonably well: coal prices remain at a sufficiently high level due to strong demand in Asia. However, mining companies and energy producers are already preparing for an inevitable transformation. Investments are increasingly directed not towards new mines but towards retrofitting facilities, carbon capture technologies, and social programs for coal-dependent regions. In the long term, phasing out coal is viewed as a key step towards achieving climate goals aimed at limiting global warming.
Electricity and Renewables: The Green Leap
The electricity sector is entering a new era of accelerated development of renewable technologies. According to the IEA report "Electricity 2026," we will see significant shifts in the structure of generation in this decade. In 2025, global electricity generation from RES (predominantly solar and wind power plants) equaled that from coal plants, and starting in 2026, clean sources are expected to surpass coal. It is anticipated that by 2030 the cumulative share of renewable energy and nuclear power in global electricity production will reach 50%. The rapid growth is primarily driven by solar energy: new photovoltaic stations are being commissioned annually, adding over 600 TWh of generation every year. Including wind, the total increase in renewable generation by 2030 is expected to be about 1000 TWh per year (+8% per year compared to current volumes).
Simultaneously, global electricity demand is also rising sharply – on average by 3-4% annually from 2024 to 2030, which is 2.5 times faster than the growth of overall energy consumption. Reasons include industrialization in developing countries, mass rollout of electric transport (electric vehicles and public transport), and digitization (data processing centers, increased use of air conditioning and electronics). Therefore, even with robust growth in RES, fossil-fuel generation cannot be swiftly displaced: gas-fired electricity generation will increase by 2030 to balance energy systems. Natural gas is viewed as a "transitional fuel," with gas generation expected to grow, albeit more slowly than renewables.
Infrastructure and Reliability: Such high dynamics create challenges for infrastructure. Existing electric grids and energy storage systems require significant investment to integrate intermittent sources like solar and wind. The IEA emphasizes that to meet growing demand and ensure reliability, annual investments in electric networks must increase by 50% by 2030 (compared to the previous decade's level). Breakthroughs in storage and load management technologies are also necessary to smooth peaks and fluctuations in RES generation.
Europe vs. USA: Climate Policy and Wind: The global energy transition is uneven: different countries exhibit varying policies. In the European Union, the green agenda remains a priority – even despite the energy crisis of 2022, the EU is accelerating the rollout of RES. By the end of 2025, electricity generation from wind and solar sources in the EU surpassed fossil fuel generation for the first time. European governments aim to further increase capacity: nine countries (including Germany, France, the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, and others) have agreed on joint major projects in the North Sea to achieve 300 GW of installed offshore wind farm capacity by 2050. By 2030, plans include at least 100 GW of offshore wind energy through cross-border projects. Such RES expansion aims to provide stable, secure, and affordable energy supply, create jobs, and reduce dependence on fuel imports.
Challenges persist: rising interest rates and increased material costs in 2024-2025 led to some wind farm construction tenders (for example, in Germany and the UK) receiving no bids, as investors demanded better project economics. European leaders acknowledge the issue and are willing to bolster support: discussions are underway regarding additional guarantees, targeted subsidies, and contracts-for-difference mechanisms to make building wind farms more appealing for businesses.
In contrast, the USA has witnessed a partial rollback of government support for clean energy. The new administration, which took office in 2025, is skeptical about several green initiatives. President Trump has publicly criticized the European course towards RES, calling wind turbines "loss-making" and claiming (without evidence) that "the more windmills, the more money the country loses." Accordingly, U.S. authorities are shifting towards supporting traditional sources: in addition to backing coal, offshore wind energy projects have come under scrutiny. In December 2025, the U.S. Department of the Interior unexpectedly suspended several major offshore wind farm projects, citing new data on potential national security threats (e.g., interference with military radars). This decision impacted nearly completed projects like Vineyard Wind off the Massachusetts coast. Major energy companies investing in wind farms (Avangrid/Iberdrola, Orsted, etc.) have challenged the moratorium in court. In January 2026, they achieved initial victories: a federal judge blocked the administration's order, allowing construction on Vineyard Wind (95% complete) to resume. Legal proceedings continue, and the sector hopes that projects won’t lose much time. Nevertheless, the uncertainty created by these steps may cool investor enthusiasm for U.S. RES projects, while Europe demonstrates a commitment to progress.
Other RES Directions: Renewable energy encompasses more than just wind and solar. Many countries are ramping up infrastructure construction for energy storage (industrial batteries), developing hydropower, and geothermal installations. There is also renewed interest in nuclear energy as a zero-carbon source. For example, private investors are backing new small modular reactor projects. In Italy, the startup Newcleo raised €75 million in February to develop innovative compact reactors, which run on recycled nuclear fuel. The company has raised €645 million since 2021 and plans expedited growth: the construction of a pilot reactor and entry into the U.S. market – one of the most dynamic markets for advanced nuclear technologies. Such initiatives indicate that the nuclear sector could play a pivotal role in decarbonization alongside RES.
As a result of energy transition efforts, regions are already witnessing impacts on electricity prices. For instance, in Europe, at the end of 2025 wholesale electricity prices fell compared to autumn – influenced by seasonal demand drops and high production from renewable sources (due to windy and warm weather). However, reliability issues persist: Ukraine's energy infrastructure is in a dire state due to ongoing bombardments, resulting in winter supply disruptions. Globally, half of the new generation capacity being introduced is now from solar and wind plants. This instills confidence that while fossil fuels will be a significant part of the balance for some time, the energy transition is taking an irreversible course.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Hopes and Reality
Political factors continue to significantly influence the energy markets. The sanction standoff between the West and key energy resource suppliers – Russia, Iran, Venezuela – remains in place, although some market participants express hopes for its easing. A few positive signals are emerging: the capture and ousting of Nicolás Maduro paves the way for potential normalization of Venezuela’s oil sector. Investors are hopeful that with the change of political regime in Caracas, the U.S. will gradually relax sanctions, allowing a significant volume of Venezuelan oil (the country has one of the largest reserves in the world) to return to the market. This could ultimately increase the supply of heavy oil and help stabilize prices for crude and oil products. However, in the short term, Maduro’s ousting has led more to disruptions: Venezuela's exports in January dropped by about 0.5 million barrels per day, significantly impacting Asian refineries that consume its oil.
The situation surrounding Iran remains tense. Rumors of potential U.S. or Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites stir the market: Iran is a key oil producer in OPEC, and any military actions could incapacitate export terminals or deter shipping companies. While direct conflict has been avoided thus far, rhetoric has intensified and traders are pricing in a certain premium for contingencies in the Strait of Hormuz.
Against this backdrop, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its fourth year and continues to influence the energy landscape. Europe has essentially ceased receiving energy resources from the RF, restructuring its logistics to alternative suppliers, while Russia has redirected its oil and gas exports to Asia. However, the Russian sector is encountering new difficulties: as mentioned, the expansion of U.S. sanctions at the end of 2025 complicated operations even with friendly buyers in Asia. Many of them prefer to wait for sanctions to ease or demand deeper discounts for the associated risks. Furthermore, there has been an increase in drone strikes on infrastructure – besides attacks on refineries, there are reports of strikes on oil storage facilities and pipelines. As a result, industry monitoring indicates that oil production in the RF began to decline slightly in December and January. If in 2025 Russia successfully restored production levels (following significant drops in 2022-23), a decline was observed for the second consecutive month at the beginning of 2026. Analysts attribute this to the exhaustion of easy ways to redirect flows and the difficulties in servicing fields under sanctions. Russian oil exports by sea remain high by volume but require increasingly longer routes and a large fleet of "shadow" tankers, which are under the risk of intensified scrutiny.
Thus, geopolitical uncertainty remains a significant factor. However, cautious optimism prevails in the market: some experts believe that the most acute phases of the energy standoff have already passed. Importing countries have adapted to the new conditions, and exporters are seeking ways to bypass restrictions. At the same time, diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation have yet to yield substantial results. Investors continue to monitor news from Washington, Brussels, Moscow, and Beijing closely. Any signals of potential negotiations or easing of sanctions could significantly affect market sentiment. Until then, politics will continue to introduce an element of volatility: whether through new sanctions packages, unexpected agreements, or the flare-up of conflicts – energy markets respond immediately to these events with price fluctuations and shifts in raw material flows.
In conclusion, it can be said that hopes for alleviating the sanctions standoff in 2026 remain just that – hopes; the main restrictions persist, and market participants are learning to operate in conditions of geopolitical fragmentation. At the same time, the moderate price stability for oil and gas achieved through OPEC+ actions and market adaptation provides grounds for optimism that the sector will navigate this current period without major upheavals unless significant new crises arise.
Investments and Corporate News in the Sector
Investors in the energy sector are focusing on both the high profitability of traditional oil and gas companies and significant investments in energy transition projects. Below are some key corporate sector events and investment highlights:
- Record Profits for Oil and Gas Companies: The largest oil companies finished 2025 with strong financial results. For instance, ExxonMobil reported a net income of $28.8 billion for 2025. Saudi Arabia's Saudi Aramco consistently earns around $25-30 billion quarterly (including $28 billion in Q3 2025 alone). These colossal profits have allowed companies to continue massive stock buyback programs and dividend payouts while also investing in new production projects. Oil and gas giants are investing in resource development – from the Permian Basin shale plays in the U.S. to deep-water projects off the Brazilian coast and gas in East Africa. Simultaneously, many of them emphasize investments in low-carbon initiatives (renewable energy, hydrogen, CO2 capture), although the share of such investments remains relatively small compared to the main business.
- Deals and Projects in Renewable Energy: Capital continues to flow into "green" projects worldwide. Governments are signing large contracts with investors: for example, Egypt signed a $1.8 billion package of contracts in January for RES development. Plans include the construction of a 1.7 GW solar power plant with a 4 GWh storage system in Upper Egypt (project by Scatec) and the establishment of a factory by Chinese firm Sungrow for industrial battery production in the Suez Economic Zone. Egypt aims to increase its renewable generation share to 42% by 2030, with international partners helping to bring this ambitious goal closer. Such projects reflect high activity in developing markets.
- New Technologies and Startups: Innovative energy companies are also attracting funding. In addition to the mentioned Italian nuclear startup Newcleo, projects around hydrogen and synthetic fuels are flourishing. For instance, Chilean-American company HIF Global is advancing the construction of a green hydrogen and electronic fuel (methanol) production plant in Brazil, costing $4 billion. Recently, company leadership indicated they have optimized the project, significantly reducing capital expenditures – construction is divided into phases, each costing less than $1 billion. The project at the Port of Açu (Brazil) plans to launch its first line by mid-2027, producing ~220,000 tons of "electromethanol" annually from hydrogen and captured CO2. Such initiatives are drawing attention from automakers and airlines interested in new fuels.
- Mergers and Acquisitions: The resource sector is undergoing consolidation processes. In 2025, two major deals in the oil sector reshaped the landscape: American companies ExxonMobil and Chevron announced the acquisition of shale companies Pioneer Natural Resources and Hess Corp, respectively, strengthening their positions in the U.S. In early 2026, negotiations continued in related industries – a megamerger between mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore (valued at ~$200 billion) was discussed, aimed at consolidating coal assets; however, the parties ultimately backed out of the merger plans. Major players are keen to scale and create synergies, but antitrust risks and integration complexities may impede such megadeals.
- Investment Climate: Overall, investments in the energy sector maintain high volumes. According to BloombergNEF estimates, total global investments in energy transition (RES, electric networks, storage, electric vehicles, etc.) in 2025 matched fossil fuel investments for the first time. Banks and funds are realigning strategies toward sustainable funding, while oil and gas will continue to receive significant capital. For investors, the key question now is finding the balance between traditional oil and gas returns and promising green directions. Many are adopting a dual strategy: capturing profits from high oil/gas prices and simultaneously investing in the future of renewable sources to capitalize on the upcoming growth wave.
Corporate news in the sector also includes financial report publications from the past year, personnel appointments, and technological breakthroughs. Riding the wave of profits, some companies are announcing dividend increases and stock buybacks, pleasing shareholders. At the same time, oil and gas companies are under public pressure to set new emissions reduction targets and invest in climate initiatives, aiming to improve their image and positioning in a rapidly changing world. Thus, the energy business globally seeks to demonstrate resilience and flexibility: achieving record profits today while laying the groundwork for success in a low-carbon economy tomorrow.
Expectations and Forecasts
As we approach the end of winter 2026, experts in the oil and gas sector provide cautiously optimistic forecasts. The primary scenario for the coming months is the maintenance of relative stability in hydrocarbon prices. Both authorities and market participants have learned lessons from the shocks of the early 2020s, creating response mechanisms: from strategic reserves and OPEC+ agreements to energy efficiency programs. Price forecasts from specialized agencies indicate a potential slight decline in oil quotes in the second half of 2026 if the supply surplus materializes as planned (the EIA expects gradual Brent prices to fall to $55 per barrel by year-end). However, any serious disruptions – such as escalations in the Middle East conflict or hurricanes disabling LNG facilities – could temporarily spike prices.
In the gas sector, much will depend on the summer performance: a mild summer with high LNG production will ease the task of filling storage, potentially keeping European gas prices in the average range of €25-30 per MWh. However, competitive battles with Asia for new LNG volumes, as well as weather uncertainties (e.g., risks of drought affecting hydropower generation or early cold snaps) add unpredictability. Nevertheless, if inventories are close to targets by autumn, Europe will enter the next winter more confidently than in previous years.
Active renewable energy development will continue. 2026 is likely to establish another record year for the commissioning of solar and wind capacities, particularly in China, the U.S. (despite political obstacles – thanks to initiatives from individual states), and the EU. The world could approach the point where every second new power plant is RES. This will gradually alter market structures: demand for natural gas in power generation may grow more slowly, and coal – decrease faster than forecasts if RES construction outpaces plans. Market attention will also be keen on developments in energy storage and hydrogen technologies – breakthroughs in these areas could accelerate the energy transition.
On the political front, market participants will watch for potential negotiations and elections. In 2026, presidential elections are expected in several supplier countries, which could affect their energy policies. Any steps toward peaceful agreements or lifting some sanctions could radically reshape trade flows – for example, the return of Iranian oil to the market or an increase in Venezuelan exports would alter balances. On the flip side, increased sanctions or new conflicts (e.g., around Taiwan or other regions) could introduce new risks for critical raw material supplies.
Overall, investors and analysts anticipate that 2026 will be marked by adaptation and resilience. Energy markets are no longer as chaotic as during the peak of disruptions and demonstrate a capacity for self-regulation. With prudent policies from both governments and companies, the energy sector will continue to provide the global economy with essential fuel and energy while gradually evolving under the influence of new technologies and changing demands.
