Global News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Wednesday, December 17, 2025. Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Refineries, Key Events, and Trends in Global Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 17, 2025, attract the attention of investors, market participants, and major fuel companies due to their contradictions. The decline in oil prices to multi-year lows is happening concurrently with a sharp rise in gas prices in the US, creating a mixed picture in global energy markets. The world oil market is under pressure from oversupply and slowed demand - Brent quotes are hovering around $60 per barrel (the lowest levels in four years), reflecting a fragile balance of factors. Meanwhile, the gas sector shows divergent trends: in Europe, prices remain moderate due to high reserves, while in America, wholesale gas prices are hitting records, provoking a local energy crisis. At the same time, amid ongoing sanctions against Russia, its oil and gas revenues are sharply decreasing, prompting authorities to continue supporting the domestic fuel market. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum - renewable energy in many countries is reaching record levels, although for the reliability of energy systems, states are not yet giving up traditional resources. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Moderate Demand Pressuring Prices
Global oil prices continued their decline, influenced by fundamental factors. The North Sea Brent blend is trading around $60 per barrel, while the American WTI is near $56. Current levels are approximately 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting a continuing market correction after the price peaks of previous years. Several factors are influencing price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Production Increase: The oil alliance is generally increasing supply in the market despite falling prices. Key participants in the agreement have partially restored production volumes: in December 2025, the total quota was raised by approximately 137,000 barrels per day (as part of a previously announced plan). Although OPEC+ is taking a pause for the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal demand declines, current production levels remain high.
- Increased Supply Outside OPEC: In addition to the alliance countries, other producers have also raised production. In the US, oil production has reached record levels (around 13 million barrels per day), and Latin American and African countries are showing significant growth in exports. Collectively, this adds extra oil to the market and reinforces the trend towards oversupply.
- Slowed Demand Growth: The pace of global oil consumption growth has slowed. The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates an increase in demand in 2025 of less than 1 million barrels/day (compared to around 2.5 million in 2023), while OPEC's estimates are around +1.3 million b/d. Reasons include weakening economic activity in several countries, increased energy efficiency, and relatively high prices in previous years that stimulated energy conservation. An additional factor is moderate industrial growth in China, which is limiting the appetite of the world’s second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitics and Expectations: The market continues to be affected by uncertainty in international relations. On one hand, the continuation of sanctions against Russia and relative instability in the Middle East could support prices; however, the overall oversupply mitigates this effect. On the other hand, periodically emerging signals of possible dialogue (such as discussions in the US regarding plans to reintegrate Russia into the global economy following a conflict resolution) slightly reduce the geopolitical “premium” in oil quotes. As a result, prices fluctuate within a narrow range without sharp jumps, lacking momentum for either a new rally or a collapse.
The combined influence of these factors creates an oversupply over demand, keeping the oil market in a state of surplus. Exchange prices remain significantly below previous years' levels. Several analysts believe that if current trends persist, average Brent prices could drop to around $50 per barrel in 2026.
Gas Market: European Stability and Price Surge in the US
The gas market is witnessing divergent trends. Europe and Asia are entering winter relatively confidently, while North America is experiencing unprecedented rises in fuel prices. The regional situation can be summarized as follows:
- Europe: EU countries are entering the winter season with high gas reserves. As of early December, underground storage facilities are filled to approximately 75% of total capacity (compared to around 85% a year ago). Thanks to this buffer and stable LNG inflows, exchange prices remain low: TTF hub quotes have dropped below €30/MWh (approximately $320 per thousand cubic meters). This environment is favorable for European industry and electricity generation ahead of peak winter demand.
- United States: The US gas market, in contrast, is experiencing a price shock. Wholesale prices at the Henry Hub have exceeded $5.3 per million BTU (approximately $180 per thousand cubic meters) - over 70% higher than a year ago. This has occurred due to record LNG exports: significant volumes of American LNG are going abroad, creating a domestic market shortage and increasing tariffs for power plants and consumers. Underinvestment in gas infrastructure has intensified the problem of separating domestic and external markets. As a result, several energy companies have been forced to increase coal use to control costs – expensive gas has temporarily raised the share of coal generation in the US.
- Asia: On key Asian markets, gas prices remain relatively stable. Importers in the region are supported by long-term contracts, and a mild start to winter has not created a surge in demand. In China and India, gas consumption growth remains moderate due to subdued economic growth, hence competition with Europe for LNG shipments has not intensified. However, analysts warn that a sharp drop in temperatures or an acceleration in the Chinese economy could change the balance: increased demand in Asia could once again drive global gas prices up and intensify the battle for LNG between East and West.
Thus, the global gas market is displaying a dual picture. Europe is currently enjoying relatively low prices and comfortable reserves, while in North America, expensive gas has created local challenges for energy supply. Market participants are closely monitoring weather and economic factors that could alter this balance in the coming months.
International Politics: Sanction Pressure and Cautious Signals for Dialogue
In geopolitics, the standoff surrounding Russia's energy resources continues. In late October, the European Union approved its 19th sanctions package, further tightening restrictive measures. Specifically, any financial and logistical services related to the purchase, transportation, or insurance of Russian oil for key Russian energy companies were completely banned – effectively closing any last loopholes for exporting raw materials to Europe. At the beginning of 2026, a 20th sanctions package from the EU is expected to be introduced, which is predicted to affect new sectors (including the nuclear industry, steel, oil refining, and fertilizers), further complicating trade operations with Russia.
Meanwhile, on the diplomatic horizon, initial hints of a possible compromise have emerged. According to insiders, in recent weeks the US has shared a series of proposals with its European allies regarding a gradual reintegration of Russia into the world economy - of course, subject to achieving peace and resolving the crisis. Currently, these ideas remain unofficial, and no sanctions relief has been implemented. Nonetheless, the fact that such discussions are taking place indicates a search for pathways to dialogue in the long term. At present, the sanctions regime remains strict, and energy resources from Russia continue to be sold at significant discounts to a limited number of purchasing countries. Markets are closely monitoring developments: the emergence of real peace initiatives could improve investor sentiment and soften the rhetoric surrounding sanctions, while a lack of progress threatens new restrictions on the Russian FEC.
Asia: India and China between Import and Domestic Production
- India: Facing Western sanctions, New Delhi clearly indicates that it cannot sharply reduce imports of Russian oil and gas, as they are crucial for national energy security. Indian consumers have secured favorable terms: Russian suppliers are offering Urals oil at significant discounts (estimated at no less than $5 to Brent prices) to maintain their market share in India. As a result, India continues to purchase large amounts of Russian oil at subsidized prices and is even increasing its imports of refined products from Russia to meet growing demand. Simultaneously, the government is taking steps to reduce dependency on imports in the future. In August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a national program for exploring deep-water oil and gas fields. As part of this program, the state company ONGC has started drilling ultra-deep wells (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea, and early results are promising. This "deep-water mission" aims to uncover new hydrocarbon reserves and bring India closer to its goal of energy independence.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is also increasing energy resource purchases while simultaneously boosting domestic production. Chinese importers remain the leading buyers of Russian oil (Beijing has not joined the sanctions and is taking advantage of the opportunity to acquire resources at discounted prices). Analysts estimate that in 2025, total oil imports into China will increase by about 3% compared to the previous year, while gas imports are expected to decrease by around 6% due to increased domestic production and moderate demand. Concurrently, Beijing is investing significant resources in developing national oil and gas production: by 2025, oil production in China has increased by approximately 1.7%, while gas has risen by more than 6%. Increased domestic production helps partially satisfy the needs of the economy, but does not eliminate the need for imports. Given the vast scale of consumption, China's dependence on external supplies remains high: it is expected that in the coming years, the country will import no less than 70% of its used oil and about 40% of its gas. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers – India and China – will continue to play key roles in global raw material markets, combining import security strategies with the development of their resource bases.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is accelerating rapidly. Many countries are experiencing record high electricity generation from renewable sources (RES). In Europe, by the end of 2024, combined generation from solar and wind power plants has for the first time exceeded electricity production from coal and gas-fired power plants. This trend continued into 2025: thanks to the introduction of new capacities, the share of “green” electricity in the EU is steadily increasing, while the share of coal in the energy mix is declining again (after a temporary rise during the 2022-2023 crisis). In the US, renewable energy has also reached historical highs – over 30% of total generation comes from RES, and the total volume of electricity produced from wind and solar in 2025 has for the first time surpassed generation from coal plants. China, the leader in installed "green" capacity, launches tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind generators each year, continuously updating its own generation records. Companies and investors worldwide are pouring colossal amounts into clean energy development: according to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 exceeded $3 trillion, with over half of this amount directed towards RES projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems. In line with this trend, the European Union has set a new target - to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040, setting an exceedingly ambitious pace for phasing out fossil fuels in favor of low-carbon technologies.
However, energy systems continue to rely on traditional generation for stability. The growth in the share of solar and wind presents challenges for balancing the grid during times when RES is unavailable (at night or during calms). To meet peak demand and reserve capacity, gas and even coal-fired plants are being used again in some cases. For instance, in certain European countries last winter, it was necessary to temporarily increase generation from coal plants during windless cold periods – despite the environmental costs. Similarly, in the fall of 2025, high gas prices in the US forced energy producers to temporarily ramp up coal generation. To enhance the reliability of energy supply, governments in many countries are investing in developing energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped hydroelectric storage) and smart grids capable of flexibly managing loads. Experts predict that by 2026-2027, renewable sources will top the world in electricity generation, finally surpassing coal. However, in the coming few years, the need for supporting traditional power plants remains as an insurance against disruptions. In other words, the global energy transition is reaching new heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources.
Coal: A Stable Market Amid Sustained High Demand
The accelerated development of renewable energy has not diminished the key role of the coal industry. The global coal market remains a significant and vital segment of the energy balance. Demand for coal is consistently high, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and energy needs support intensive consumption of this fuel. China – the world's largest consumer and producer of coal – is burning it at nearly record rates in 2025. Chinese mines produce over 4 billion tonnes of coal annually, meeting most domestic needs; however, this volume barely suffices during peak load periods (for example, during summer heat waves when air conditioning is widely used). India, with substantial coal reserves, is also increasing its consumption: over 70% of the country's electricity is still generated at coal-fired power plants, and total coal consumption is growing alongside the economy. In other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.), the construction of new coal-fired power plants continues to meet the growing demand of the population and industry.
The supply in the global market has adjusted to this steady demand. Major exporters – Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa – have significantly ramped up extraction and supplies of thermal coal to the external market in recent years. This has allowed prices to remain relatively stable. After price spikes in 2022, thermal coal quotes have returned to familiar ranges and have fluctuated in recent months without sharp changes. The balance of supply and demand appears to be managed: consumers continue to receive fuel, while producers secure stable sales at favorable prices. Although many countries have announced plans to gradually reduce coal use for climate goals, in the short term, this resource remains indispensable for supplying billions of people with energy. Experts estimate that within the next 5-10 years, coal generation – particularly in Asia – will maintain a significant role despite global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is now experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand remains consistently high, prices moderate, and the industry continues to be one of the pillars of the global energy system.
Russian Fuel Market: Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
Within Russia's domestic fuel segment, urgent steps have been taken in the past quarter to normalize the pricing situation. Back in August, wholesale exchange prices for gasoline in the country reached new record highs, exceeding 2023 levels. The reasons included a spike in summer demand (tourism season and harvest campaign) and limited fuel supply amid unplanned refinery repairs and logistics disruptions. The government has been forced to tighten market regulation, promptly implementing a set of measures to cool prices:
- Export Ban on Fuel: A complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline and diesel was instituted in September and has since been extended until the end of 2025. This measure applies to all producers (including major oil companies) and aims to direct additional volumes to the domestic market.
- Distribution Monitoring: Authorities have intensified monitoring of fuel shipments within the country. Refineries have been mandated to prioritize the needs of the domestic market and to prevent speculative resales between suppliers. Simultaneously, work is ongoing to develop direct contracts between refineries and fuel companies (retail gas station networks) to eliminate unnecessary intermediaries from the sales chain and prevent speculative price increases.
- Industry Subsidies: Incentive payments have been retained for fuel producers. The budget compensates oil producers for part of the revenue losses from supplying the domestic market (a damping mechanism), which motivates them to direct sufficient volumes of oil products to gas stations within the country, despite lower profitability compared to exports.
The combination of these measures is already yielding results - the fuel crisis has largely been contained this autumn. Despite record exchange prices for gasoline, retail prices at gas stations have increased much more slowly (around 5% since the beginning of the year, which roughly corresponds to overall inflation). A shortage at gas stations has been avoided; the network of gas stations is well-stocked with necessary resources. The government, for its part, is prepared to further extend export restrictions as needed (including considering extending the ban on gasoline and diesel exports until February 2026) and rapidly deploy fuel reserves to stabilize the market. Monitoring of the situation is maintained at the highest level – relevant ministries and the deputy prime minister oversee the matter, assuring that all efforts will be made to ensure stable fuel supply for the domestic market and to keep prices for consumers within acceptable limits.
