Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of February 15, 2026: Dynamics of Brent and WTI Crude, Natural Gas and LNG Market, Electricity and Renewable Energy, Coal, Oil Products, and Refineries. A Global Overview for Investors and Market Participants in the Energy Sector.
The end of the week on commodity markets saw a "tug of war" between geopolitical premiums and increasing signals of oversupply. Oil prices have stabilized near $68 per barrel for Brent, but the focus has shifted to April as market participants evaluate the likelihood of a resumption of production increases by OPEC+ and the impact of expanded operational capabilities in Venezuela for international players. In the gas market, Europe remains sensitive to weather conditions and hydrological balance: a lack of snow cover in the Alpine region boosts gas-fired generation and supports demand for imports.
- Oil: Brent and WTI ended the day slightly higher but showed weekly losses; the key catalyst is expectations regarding OPEC+ and the heightened supply narrative.
- Gas: the American Henry Hub stabilized around $3+ per MMBtu following extreme volatility in January; in Europe, TTF retreated, but energy balance risks remain significant.
- Oil Products: European ICE gasoil experienced a notable decline; premiums and margins remain volatile amid refinery turnarounds and seasonal demand adjustments.
- Coal and Electricity: ARA coal strengthened, while German baseload electricity (futures) dropped by the end of the day.
Key Price Indicators
Below is a "showcase" for investors and participants in the energy sector: oil, gas hubs, oil products, coal, and electricity. All changes are calculated as the difference between the closing prices on February 13, 2026, and February 12, 2026, for the respective indicators (where available).
| Indicator | Region/Platform | Unit | Closing (February 13, 2026) | Daily Change | Daily Change, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (front-month) | Global export benchmark | USD/barrel | 67.75 | +0.23 | +0.34% |
| WTI (front-month) | USA, NYMEX | USD/barrel | 62.89 | +0.05 | +0.08% |
| Henry Hub (NYMEX nat gas, front-month) | USA, key gas hub | USD/MMBtu | 3.243 | +0.026 | +0.81% |
| TTF (ICE Dutch TTF, front-month) | Europe, gas hub | EUR/MWh | 32.500 | -0.494 | -1.50% |
| ICE Gasoil (London Gas Oil) | Europe, diesel/gasoil | USD/ton | 672.50 | -25.75 | -3.69% |
| ARA Coal (Rotterdam Coal) | Europe, ARA (proxy for API2 logic) | USD/ton | 104.85 | +1.55 | +1.50% |
| Electricity Germany (Baseload month) | Europe, futures | EUR/MWh | 101.22 | -2.95 | -2.83% |
Oil: Supply and Demand Balance Takes Center Stage Again
For the oil market, the week has served as a "regime switch": the geopolitical premium (primarily surrounding the US-Iran situation) supported prices, yet supply risk began to dominate the news flow. Sources indicate that some OPEC+ participants are leaning towards returning to planned production increases in April — a decision is under discussion amid expectations of seasonal demand boosts in spring and summer. For investors, this signals a growing likelihood of a soft surplus in the second quarter, elevating oil's sensitivity to inventory and export data.
Concurrently, international forecasters are amplifying the "bearish" narrative: the IEA reduced its outlook for global oil demand growth in 2026, simultaneously highlighting a structural gap between expected supply and consumption. Within this framework, any additional supply — whether from OPEC+ or sanctioned countries — is perceived as a factor shifting the curve towards contango and pressuring spreads.
- Fundamentals: the market is digesting simultaneous signals of "less demand" and "more potential output."
- Supply Risks: discussions on the return of OPEC+ output increases and enhancing Venezuela's capabilities through changes in the licensing regime for international companies.
- Short-term Horizon: next week's focus will be on statements from OPEC+ and the dynamics of oil inventory/refinery throughput in the US.
Gas and LNG: Europe Remains Weather Dependent, US Returns to More "Normal" Prices
The gas market varies by region. In the US, Henry Hub is returning closer to mid-term balance expectations — following January's cold snap, when futures and spot prices exhibited extreme spikes. For fuel companies and gas consumers, this shift appears as a transition from a "force majeure" demand mode to a calibration of inventories and production.
In Europe, TTF fell by the end of the day, yet fundamental nervousness persists: the weather factor changes not only through temperature but also through hydrology. Low snow cover in parts of the Alpine region indicates weak hydro generation and a greater demand for gas in electricity generation, directly impacting inventory filling/draining rates and spot delivery premiums. For the global LNG market, this connection amplifies the significance of short-term changes in gas flows and tanker availability.
As of February 15, 2026: detailed data on European UGS storage levels and JKM/TTF spreads are not disclosed in this publication (no confirmed public figures in available primary sources), thus the assessment is provided based on the general trend in gas demand for generation and hub volatility.
Oil Products and Refineries: Diesel Shelf Weakens, but Maintenance Supports Margins
In the oil products markets, the week ended with a decline in European gasoil, indicating a rapid reassessment of expectations in the medium distillate segment. However, for refineries and fuel companies, the key parameter is not so much the futures level but the crack spreads, regional premiums, and raw material availability. This scenario is complicated by two countervailing processes: seasonal refinery maintenance restricts oil product supply, while weakening demand outside the peak heating/transit window reduces price support.
In the US, a significant corporate signal has been the focus on Venezuelan crude: easing the licensing regime increases the likelihood of rising imports of heavy grades to optimize the refining slate at American refineries. For arbitrageurs, this indicates potential redistribution of flows: some barrels that previously went in other directions may now shift to the Atlantic, influencing freight and differential pricing.
- For Refineries: the risk is "flat" prices for oil products with expensive raw materials; support comes from competitors' maintenance and logistical constraints.
- For Trading: the focus is on diesel/gasoil, regional spreads, and freight costs on product tankers.
- For Investors: the importance of guidance on margins and capacity utilization among public refiners is increasing.
Sanctions and Geopolitics: Russia, Iran, and Venezuela Shape a "Political Premium" in Energy
Geopolitics is once again part of pricing: tensions in the Middle East surrounding the US-Iran situation support the risk premium for oil and raise the "price" of potential supply disruptions. Concurrently, the sanctions agenda in Europe is shifting from price caps to logistics — discussions are underway to tighten restrictions on maritime services for Russian oil and extend the sanctions framework to infrastructure and ports of third countries. This directly affects transportation and insurance costs while increasing the significance of "grey" supply chains.
On the other end of the spectrum is Venezuela: the expansion of the licensing regime for international players opens the possibility for accelerated production and investments, but operational details (licenses, payment mechanisms, banking compliance) will dictate the pace of actual increases. This is why the oil market over the next few weeks will trade not only on current stockpiles but also on the quality of political signals.
Energy and Renewables: Policy Alters Curves, Electricity Reflects Balance Nervousness
The renewables sector continues to expand its investment base, but policy is becoming more differentiated. The United Kingdom has recorded a historic amount of support for solar projects in a recent auction, emphasizing a focus on scalable low-carbon technologies. Conversely, France has adjusted the parameters of its energy strategy, reducing targets for wind and solar while enhancing the role of nuclear generation; for European energy, this implies a more complex trajectory in network development, storage, and balancing capacities.
At the price level, German electricity (futures) fell by the end of the day, which appears as a reaction to a short-term normalization of expectations regarding the balance. However, fundamentally, European electricity remains sensitive to gas, weather, and the availability of low-carbon generation sources.
Brief Forecast for the Coming Days (February 15–20, 2026): the base scenario anticipates oil trading within a corridor, with the upper limit constrained by expectations of supply increases and the lower limit supported by geopolitical premiums. Gas in Europe will remain a "weather trade," while the key intrigue for oil products will be the resilience of diesel spreads amid refinery maintenance.
- What to Watch for Investors: signals from OPEC+ (ahead of the meeting on March 1, 2026), practical details regarding Venezuela (licenses and export flows), dynamics of the EU/G7 sanctions agenda, and US-Iran risks.
- What to Watch for Market Participants: arbitrage opportunities across raw materials and oil products, logistics of deliveries, gas hub premiums, and load on gas generation in Europe.
This material has been prepared in expositional form for an audience of investors and market participants: oil, gas, energy, renewables, coal, oil products, refineries, and fuel companies. If specific figures or corporate details are absent from available primary sources, they have been marked as unavailable as of February 15, 2026.
