Current News in the Oil and Gas Industry and Global Energy Market as of December 9, 2025: Oil, Gas, Coal, Renewable Energy, OPEC+ Politics, Sanction Risks, Asian Demand, and the State of the Global Energy Market.
Global Oil Prices
On Tuesday, global oil prices remained under pressure, settling slightly below recent highs. Brent crude futures dropped to approximately $62.90 per barrel, while WTI fell to $59.20. Market participants are awaiting the decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding interest rates on December 9–10, with the markets estimating an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. Easing of monetary policy could boost oil demand; however, the prospects for a peaceful resolution in Ukraine and the easing of sanctions are tempering price increases.
- Expectations of a U.S. Fed rate cut are encouraging risk appetite and energy demand.
- Negotiations regarding Ukraine remain stalled, preserving uncertainty over the future volume of Russian oil in the global market.
- OPEC+ decisions stabilize production by limiting short-term supply fluctuations.
Negotiations on Ukraine and New Sanctions
The slowdown in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine this week is heightening uncertainty in the energy market. Both Ukrainian and Russian sides have not made any significant progress; key disagreements relate to security guarantees and the status of disputed territories. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held talks with EU leaders in London, while former U.S. President Donald Trump promoted his own peace plan, which may lead to a sharp increase in Russian oil supply in the event of an agreement.
- The G7 currency union and the European Union are discussing a complete ban on marine services for Russian tankers instead of the existing price cap.
- The U.S. administration is increasing pressure on Maduro's regime in Venezuela: strikes against drug trafficking vessels have been conducted, and measures for regime change are being discussed.
- Independent Chinese refiners are ramping up purchases of sanctioned Iranian and Russian crude, leveraging new quotas and price discounts.
OPEC+ and Production Quotas
At the recent meeting in early December, OPEC+ countries agreed to an annual assessment of the production capacities of participants. This innovation aims to align quotas with actual production capabilities while supporting investor confidence in the cartel's agreements. Saudi Arabian representatives noted that the decisions made will stabilize the market and reward those investing in increased output.
- Capacity audits will commence in 2026 to establish baseline production levels for 2027.
- Nineteen OPEC+ nations will engage foreign consultants for their capacity assessments; Russia, Iran, and Venezuela will adopt alternative methods due to U.S. sanctions.
- OPEC+ seeks to account for the "actual gap" between quotas and current production levels in several countries.
Rising Demand in Asia: India and China
India is showing record demand for petroleum products. In November, domestic fuel consumption surged to a six-month high, particularly with diesel fuel sales. New Delhi is actively purchasing Russian oil at steep discounts, despite U.S. pressure. During President Putin's recent visit to India, guarantees of continual fuel supplies were discussed; however, local refiners are cautiously diversifying imports through non-Russian channels. This surge in demand reflects an economic revival in Asia as it emerges from the pandemic.
- Diesel shipments to India increased by 12% month-on-month, and overall demand surpassed last year's levels by approximately 3%. State-owned refineries have planned oil loadings from alternative sources in January.
- China is increasing coal imports for the heating season: November purchases rose compared to October but remain lower than last year's volumes. Strategic reserves provide a fuel stock for 35 days.
- Given the record energy consumption in winter, China will continue to rely on coal generation and fuel imports due to mining constraints under the campaign to tackle overcapacity.
Natural Gas and Power Generation
Natural gas prices in Europe have fallen to almost a one-and-a-half-year low, attributed to warm weather, record LNG supplies from the U.S., and expectations of easing sanctions. January TTF futures are trading at around $335–$340 per thousand cubic meters, while underground gas storage levels in the EU have stabilized above 70%. In the U.S., cold weather has led to a sharp increase in prices in the northeast region: wholesale prices at Algonquin exceeded $20/MMBtu, prompting energy companies to revert to coal.
- Europe: The warm December and abundant LNG keep prices low, reducing the risks of fuel shortages for the heating season.
- U.S.: Cold weather records in the northeastern states are driving local prices up and increasing demand for coal generation.
- Energy Supply: The European Commission is preparing a centralized plan to modernize cross-border electricity networks to mitigate bottlenecks and reduce electricity costs.
- Increased electricity demand (partly due to data centers and AI) is motivating U.S. companies (NextEra, Exelon) to enter new "green" contracts and invest in capacity expansions.
Renewable Energy and Climate Policy
At the COP30 summit in Brazil, countries agreed to ramp up financial support for climate adaptation but fell short of committing to stringent fossil fuel phase-out obligations. The main issue remains the contradiction between oil and gas interests and global emission reduction goals. China and India are strengthening their influence in developing "green" technologies: China is pushing solar panel and battery exports, while India has launched new wind and solar farms. The outcome of the conference has led to continued debates on climate ambitions — an adaptation program was formally adopted but without concrete timelines and monitoring mechanisms.
- A key decision from COP30 is a threefold increase in climate adaptation funding from developed countries.
- The final documents lack a strict roadmap for reducing oil and gas production: oil and gas countries are maintaining their positions.
- Technologies: "Green" electronics manufacturers are ramping up capacity. Wind and solar power plants continue to see production growth alongside investments in energy networks.
Coal Market Trends
Due to rising natural gas prices, some consumers are returning to coal. In the U.S., coal production and output at coal-fired power plants are on the rise: many companies are reducing their gas generation fleet in favor of cheaper coal. This leads to increased coal emissions but ensures reliability of energy supply during peak winter months.
- U.S.: Winter demand and record LNG exports are driving gas prices up, encouraging energy companies to return to coal.
- Asia: China and India uphold high coal import volumes for electricity generation. Despite seasonal fluctuations, supply volumes remain substantial.
- Prices: On the global market, coal prices have risen after summer lows, although increases are limited by significant coal stocks in Chinese warehouses.
Refining and Petroleum Products
The petroleum products market remains tight: global gasoline and diesel prices have increased due to seasonal demand. Major refineries are operating at full capacity to compensate for supply constraints and meet domestic needs. Potential easing of sanctions on Russia could alter the balance of petroleum product supply and adjust price dynamics in the fuel market. Refineries are preparing for possible shifts in raw material supply routes, increasing product inventories and readjusting logistics.
- Diesel demand remains high, especially in Asia and developing markets, where economic activity is accelerating.
- European refineries are increasing fuel stocks and preparing alternative loading schemes in anticipation of possible revisions in sanction restrictions.
