Global Fuel and Energy Market Overview: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Coal, and Renewables as of September 10, 2026
Headline: Brent Above $100 — Tanker Strikes and Tehran's Response
Oil prices have risen for the fourth consecutive session, with direct military escalation in the Persian Gulf serving as the trigger for this new surge. The U.S. Central Command reported the destruction of five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island in response to attempted attacks on U.S. vessels; according to the Pentagon, a total of ten vessels from the "shadow fleet" have been taken out of service within a week. Iran claimed to have carried out strikes on the Muwaffaq-Salti base in Jordan (18 missiles intercepted), attacks on two U.S. Navy destroyers, and on ten vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) recorded the impact of an unknown projectile on a tanker near Al-Faw in Iraq, and damage to a vessel off Port Rashid in the UAE.
The central threat to shipping is Iran's declared "prohibited zone" outside the strait, where Iranian forces intend to stop vessels without permission. This means further increases in military premiums and a reduction in the number of shipowners willing to enter the region for traders and insurers. In response, Washington has expanded its sanctions campaign against Iranian aviation, while Seoul is considering participating in ensuring the security of the strait.
Oil Market: Prices, Dynamics, and Forecasts
Oil market benchmarks as of Thursday morning:
- Brent (November, ICE): peak on Wednesday at $100.19 per barrel, first time above $100 since July 24; then consolidated near $99.7–100.5.
- WTI (October, NYMEX): around $94.7, a roughly 2% increase for the session.
- Dynamics: since August 31, Brent has gained about 13.5%, and nearly 40% since the war with Iran began in late February; the April peak of the year exceeded $125.
- Forecasts: Goldman Sachs anticipates $120 should attacks on vessels in the Hormuz and Red Seas escalate, while a return to $80 is possible with the normalization of exports; ING expects a significant risk premium to remain until negotiations resume.
The fundamental backdrop remains deficit-driven. According to EIA estimates, global oil inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels per day in Q2 and by another 3.8 million in Q3; transit through Hormuz in Q2 averaged just 4.9 million barrels per day compared to 21.6 million before the conflict. The agency's August forecast of $85 per barrel in Q3 and $78 in Q4 now appears outdated, as the September STEO release published on September 9 will align the market with the new reality of "hundreds." The U.S. strategic reserve, at about 286.6 million barrels, limits Washington's ability to mitigate price shocks through interventions.
Middle East: Double Blockade of Saudi Arabia
The second front of risk is the Red Sea. On September 8, the Houthis struck targets in Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan, and Najran: 73 people were injured, and fires broke out at the Aramco refinery in Jizan with a capacity of 400 thousand barrels per day. Simultaneously, the movement has launched a campaign for control over Bab-el-Mandeb. The issue for oil supplies is that after the closure of Hormuz, the Red Sea has become the Kingdom's main artery: the East-West pipeline operates at a record 7 million barrels per day, and the Yanbu terminal accounts for over 90% of Saudi oil marine exports. The defensive pact between Riyadh, Turkey, and Pakistan has yet to eliminate the threat to infrastructure. Any disruption at Yanbu would mean the largest exporter falling off the market during the closure of both straits.
Gas Market: TTF Above $950, UGS at Lowest Level Since 2011
The European gas market is moving contrary to seasonal logic. On September 9, October TTF futures reached 78.8 euros/MWh (around $970 per thousand cubic meters), rising almost 4% for the day; year-to-date prices have increased by about 120%. Key parameters include:
- EU UGS filling level — 66.9% as of September 7, about 71.7 billion cubic meters; the lowest for this date in recorded history since 2011, and 13.8 billion cubic meters less than last year's level.
- Germany — approximately 53%, the worst among major economies; Italy is the only large market near a comfortable 80%+.
- Target norm — 90% in the window from October 1 to December 1 with a 10 percentage point allowance; since April, only about 62% of necessary volumes have been injected.
The European Commission stated following the Coordination Gas Group meeting on September 3 that there is no immediate threat to supply security and sees no reason for intervention, citing diversification, regasification capacity, and decreased demand. Meanwhile, LNG production in Qatar remains halted, and Europe is forced to compete for tankers with Asia at peak prices. For the EU industry, this means entering the heating season with the highest injection costs in four years.
LNG and Coal: Gas Deficit Supports Coal Generation
The LNG deficit in 2026 is estimated at about 35 million tons, forcing import-dependent countries in Northeast Asia to ramp up coal generation: in South Korea, it has increased by almost 40%, and in Japan by more than 11%. Global coal demand could rise by about 3% and approach 9.1 billion tons. For coal exporters — Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa — this presents an unexpected window of demand despite the long-term trend toward decarbonization.
China and Asia: Oil Imports Recovering from Decade Low
China's customs statistics for August showed growth for the second consecutive month: oil imports amounted to 37.93 million tons (8.93 million barrels per day), up 6.2% from July, but still 23.4% lower than last year's level; over the past eight months, purchases have dropped by 14.6%. Chinese refiners are actively increasing purchases of Russian ESPO oil, bypassing Hormuz and exploring atypical sources, including Argentina. The export of oil products soared by 29% to 6 million tons amid a global diesel deficit, while domestic demand for gasoline and diesel remains 8-9% lower than last year's levels. Inventory reductions have slowed to 550 thousand barrels per day, indicating Beijing's gradual return to the spot market.
Russia: Urals Discount, Exports, and the Second Wave of Fuel Crisis
The high Brent price partially mitigates the expanded discount for Russian companies: following the expiration of the U.S. license for trading in Russian oil, the discount on Urals reached $23–24 per barrel over the summer, with the annual average estimated at $17–22. The domestic oil products market remains in crisis mode:
- Exchange sales of gasoline from September 1–4 rose by 69% compared to August to 72.75 thousand tons, but fell to 12.24 thousand tons by September 7 due to unscheduled refinery repairs;
- Unmet solvent demand — 37.7 thousand tons for AI-92 and 35.3 thousand tons for AI-95; only about 41% of exchange contracts have been fulfilled since May;
- Since the beginning of the year, 5.44 million tons of gasoline have been sold on the exchange, 23.7% less than last year;
- The gasoline export ban has been extended to January 31, 2027, with the Ministry of Energy discussing limiting diesel exports during repairs and winter demand; import supplies from India have begun.
Electric Power and Renewables: Structural Trends Unchanged
Amid the commodity shock, the energy transition is accelerating. According to Ember, in 2025, renewable energy sources will for the first time surpass coal in global generation (33.8% versus 33.0%), and in May 2026, solar energy will surpass coal in the energy balance of the U.S. for the first time (12.8% versus 12.2%). Africa is on track for a record year with a 45% increase in solar capacity installations. Global electricity demand in 2026 is projected to rise by 3.6% due to electric transport, air conditioning, and data centers for AI. For investors in renewables, storage, and networks, expensive gas is not a hindrance but an additional argument.
Thursday Calendar: OPEC, EIA, and U.S. Inflation
September 10 marks one of the busiest days of the month for participants in the fuel and energy market. OPEC will publish its monthly review with updated demand and production estimates, which will reveal how much the cartel considers the decline in consumption in Asia. The EIA is releasing weekly statistics on oil and oil products inventories on Thursday due to the holiday schedule — following a series of reductions in U.S. commercial inventories below a five-year low, these data are critical for WTI. The U.S. will release the producer price index for August, with the IMF’s outlook and consumer inflation to be released on Friday, which will influence the rhetoric of the Federal Reserve. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for October 4; October quotas remain unchanged.
Conclusions and Risks for Investors and Fuel and Energy Companies
- Oil. The stabilization of Brent above $100 depends on whether the attacks on tankers escalate into a complete closure of both the Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb straits; the range of scenarios for the quarter is from $80 to $120.
- Gas. Europe is entering winter with a historically low supply; a cold November or a new disruption in LNG supply could push TTF back into four-digit values.
- Coal and Refineries. The gas and diesel deficits support coal generation and refining margins, but concentrate profits in regions outside the conflict zone.
- Russia. High oil prices ease budgetary risks, however, the domestic fuel market remains vulnerable until refinery repairs are completed.
- Renewables. Renewable energy remains the only predictable element of the global energy balance and the main benchmark for long-term investments.
The day's outcome for the global energy sector: short-term oil and gas prices are dictated by military logic in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, mid-term by Europe and Asia's ability to survive winter with semi-empty storage facilities, and long-term by the speed of the energy transition. In this context, scenario planning, logistics diversification, and hedging discipline become a survival condition for market participants in the fuel and energy sector, not an option.
