Current News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Saturday, December 6, 2025: Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, Stock Levels, Sanctions, Renewable Energy, Coal, Exports, Production, Analysis for Investors and Energy Sector Companies.
The latest developments in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 6, 2025, reflect a polarized dynamic in global markets amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. Global oil prices remain near multi-month lows: Brent crude is hovering around $62–63 per barrel, while US WTI is around $59. These levels are significantly lower than mid-year figures, attributable to a combination of factors, from expectations of progress in peace negotiations to signs of oversupply in the market. In contrast, the European gas market is entering winter quite confidently: underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in EU countries are over 85% full, providing a solid buffer, while wholesale prices (TTF index) are maintained below €30 per MWh, significantly lower than the peak levels of previous years.
Nonetheless, the geopolitical confrontation over energy remains unabated. The collective West continues to intensify sanctions on the Russian energy sector — the European Union recently legally approved a phased withdrawal from imports of Russian pipeline gas by 2027 and an accelerated reduction of remaining oil supplies from Russia. Attempts at diplomatic resolution of the conflict have so far yielded no tangible results, which means that restrictions and risks of supply disruptions persist. Within Russia, authorities have extended emergency measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market after an autumn shortage of gasoline and diesel, severely limiting fuel exports. At the same time, the global energy sector is accelerating its green transition: investments in renewables are breaking records, new incentives are being implemented, although traditional resources — oil, gas, and coal — continue to play a key role in the energy balance of most countries. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors for this date.
Oil Market: Prices at Minimum Levels Under Pressure from Oversupply and Hopes for Peace
As December begins, global oil prices remain under pressure, fluctuating near local minima. The North Sea blend Brent has fallen to approximately $62 per barrel after relative stability in the autumn, while WTI futures are around $59. Current prices are approximately 15% lower than last year’s levels. The market is partially pricing in a scenario where sanctions on Russian oil may be eased if peace negotiations between Moscow and Washington succeed, reducing the geopolitical premium in prices. At the same time, concerns about oversupply are mounting: industry data indicates an increase in global crude oil and fuel stocks, while seasonal demand declines at the end of the year and slowing economic activity in China are constraining consumption. The OPEC+ oil alliance confirmed at its meeting on November 30 that it would maintain current production quotas at least until the end of 2026, signaling its unwillingness to increase supply and risk a price collapse. As a result, the combined impact of factors has shifted the market balance towards oversupply. Prices remain low as market participants evaluate the prospects of a potential peace agreement and the further actions of OPEC+ in response to changing market conditions.
An additional sign of oversupply was Saudi Arabia's decision to lower the official selling price of Arab Light oil for Asian customers to a minimum level over the last five years. This move aims to strengthen Saudi competitiveness in the Asian market; however, the simultaneous maintenance of limited OPEC+ production somewhat offsets the oversupply pressure, keeping prices from further declines.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with Comfortable Stocks and Stable Prices
The European natural gas market is entering the heating season without significant disruptions. Thanks to early fuel injection and a mild start to winter, EU countries are greeting December with record-high gas storage levels and relatively low prices, reducing the risk of a recurrence of the 2022 crisis. Key factors determining the current situation in the European gas market include:
- High UGS Fill Levels: According to industry monitoring, the average filling level of gas storage facilities in the EU exceeds 85%, significantly ahead of typical levels for the start of winter. The accumulated reserves create a reliable buffer in case of prolonged cold weather or supply disruptions.
- Record LNG Imports: European consumers continue to actively purchase liquefied natural gas on the global market. Weaker demand for LNG in Asia has freed up additional volumes for Europe, partially compensating for the cessation of pipeline supplies from Russia. As a result, the influx of LNG remains high, helping to keep prices at moderate levels.
- Moderate Demand and Diversification: Mild weather at the beginning of winter and energy-saving measures are curbing gas consumption growth. At the same time, the EU is diversifying its supply sources: imports of gas from Norway, North Africa, and other regions have increased, enhancing energy security and reducing dependence on Russian hydrocarbons.
- Price Stabilization: Wholesale gas prices are currently several times lower than the extreme peaks of last year. The Dutch TTF index has stabilized around €28–30 per MWh. High storage levels and market balancing have helped avoid new price spikes even amid a significant reduction in gas imports from Russia.
Thus, Europe enters winter with a substantial buffer in the gas market. Even in the event of cold weather, the accumulated reserves and flexible LNG supply chains can soften potential shocks. However, in the long term, the situation will depend on weather conditions and global demand dynamics — especially if Asia's energy needs begin to rise again amid economic recovery.
Russian Market: Fuel Shortages and Extension of Export Restrictions
In the autumn of 2025, Russia faced a heightened problem of motor fuel (gasoline and diesel) shortages in the domestic market due to a combination of factors. Increased seasonal demand (the harvesting campaign increased fuel consumption) coincided with a decrease in supply from refineries (several refineries cut production due to unscheduled repairs and drone attacks on fuel infrastructure). In several regions, gasoline supply disruptions emerged, prompting the government to intervene swiftly to stabilize the situation. Authorities have implemented emergency measures that remain in effect:
- Ban on Gasoline Exports: The Russian government imposed a temporary total ban on exports of automotive gasoline by all producers and traders (except for supplies under intergovernmental agreements) at the end of August. Initially intended to last until October, the ban has since been extended at least until December 31, 2025, due to ongoing tensions in the domestic fuel market.
- Restriction on Diesel Exports: At the same time, the export of diesel fuel for independent traders has been prohibited until the end of the year. Oil companies with their own refineries are allowed limited diesel fuel exports to prevent processing stoppages. This partial ban aims to ensure sufficient product supply domestically and prevent a recurrence of shortages.
According to statements from relevant officials, the fuel crisis that emerged in the autumn is localized and temporary. Reserve stocks have been utilized to address the issue, and refinery operations are gradually recovering after unscheduled downtimes. By the beginning of winter, the situation stabilized somewhat: wholesale gasoline and diesel prices retreated from September peaks (including a further decrease of 5–7% in gasoline exchange prices in the first days of December compared to the previous week). Although fuel prices in the domestic market are still higher than a year ago, the government's priority is to fully meet the country's needs and avoid a new price spike. Should it be necessary, stringent export restrictions could be extended into 2026 to maintain stability.
Sanctions and Politics: Intensifying Western Pressure Amid Dialogue Attempts
Western countries continue to tighten their policies regarding the Russian FEC, showing no readiness to soften sanctions. On December 4, EU leaders finalized a plan for a complete and indefinite withdrawal from imports of Russian pipeline gas by the end of 2026 (with a cessation of Russian LNG purchases by 2027) as part of a new sanctions package. This step aims to deprive Moscow of a significant portion of its export revenues in the medium term. The initiative has met traditional opposition from gas-dependent Hungary and Slovakia, but their objections have failed to block the EU's overall decision.
Concurrently, the United States is ramping up its own pressure. The Trump administration has taken a hard stance against countries cooperating with Russia in the energy sector. Notably, in 2025, Washington imposed heightened tariffs of 25% on a number of Indian products, partially in response to New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil, and indicated a review of sanctions relief against Venezuela. These actions increase uncertainty around future oil supplies from Venezuela to the global market.
Meanwhile, direct negotiations between Moscow and Washington to end the conflict have yielded no significant progress — consultations held in Moscow involving American emissaries concluded without breakthroughs. Hostilities in Ukraine continue, and all previously imposed restrictions on exports of Russian energy resources remain in place. Western energy companies continue to shy away from new investments in Russia. Thus, geopolitical tensions surrounding energy remain, adding long-term risks and uncertainties to the market.
Asia: India and China Strengthen Energy Security
The largest developing economies in Asia — India and China — continue to focus on ensuring their energy security, balancing the benefits of cheap imports and external pressures. Countries in the region are actively utilizing opportunities to acquire energy resources under favorable conditions while simultaneously developing internal projects and international cooperation. The current situation in these two key countries looks as follows:
- India: Under Western pressure, New Delhi temporarily reduced its purchases of Russian oil in late autumn; however, India remains one of Moscow’s main clients. Indian refineries continue to process discounted Urals crude oil, meeting domestic fuel needs and redirecting surpluses for export. President Vladimir Putin's state visit to India on December 4–5 highlighted the close ties between the countries. At the summit on December 5 in New Delhi, the parties discussed and highly valued extensive cooperation in the energy sector, signing an "important package" of documents aimed at further deepening their partnership. The joint statement confirmed Russia’s commitment to continue ensuring uninterrupted fuel supplies for India’s rapidly growing economy, as well as expanding cooperation in oil, gas, petrochemicals, coal generation, and nuclear energy. Furthermore, Russia aims to increase imports of Indian goods to balance trade despite US sanctions pressure (including high tariffs on Indian exports related to its cooperation with Russia in the oil sector).
- China: Despite an economic slowdown, Beijing remains key in the global energy market. Chinese companies are diversifying import channels: new long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas purchases (including with Qatar and the USA) are being signed, pipeline gas supplies from Central Asia are expanding, and investments in overseas oil and gas production are increasing. Concurrently, China is gradually ramping up its hydrocarbon production, although this is still insufficient to cover domestic demand fully. The country is also continuing significant coal purchases to secure its energy system during the transition period. Both India and China are actively investing in the development of renewable energy; however, in the coming years, they do not intend to abandon traditional sources — oil, gas, and coal — which still constitute the foundation of their energy balance.
Renewable Energy: Record Investments Supported by Governments
The global shift toward clean energy continues to accelerate, setting new records in investments and capacity additions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2025, global investments in renewable sources exceeded $2 trillion — more than double the total investments in the oil and gas sector during the same period. The bulk of capital is directed towards the construction of solar and wind power plants, as well as associated infrastructure — high-voltage grids and energy storage systems. At the COP30 climate summit, world leaders reaffirmed their commitment to accelerate greenhouse gas emission reductions and significantly increase renewable energy capacities by 2030. To achieve these goals, a comprehensive set of initiatives has been proposed:
- Streamlining Permitting Processes: Accelerate review times and simplify the issuance of permits for the construction of renewable energy facilities, grid modernization, and the implementation of other low-carbon projects.
- Expanding Government Support: Introduce additional incentives for "green" energy — special tariffs, tax breaks, subsidies, and government guarantees to attract more investments and reduce risks for businesses.
- Financing the Transition in Developing Countries: Increase volumes of international financial assistance to emerging market economies for accelerated renewable energy implementation where domestic resources are insufficient. Target funds are being created to make "green" projects cheaper in the most vulnerable regions.
The rapid growth of renewable energy is already leading to significant changes in the global energy balance. According to analytical centers, non-carbon sources (renewables alongside nuclear generation) currently account for over 40% of global electricity generation, and this share is steadily increasing. Experts note that while short-term volatility may occur due to weather factors or consumption spikes, the long-term trend is clear: clean energy is gradually displacing fossil fuels, bringing about the onset of a new low-carbon era.
Coal: High Demand Supports the Market, But the Peak Has Passed
Despite efforts to decarbonize, the global coal market in 2025 remains close to record levels. Global coal consumption is sustained at historically high levels — around 8.8–8.9 billion tons per year, just slightly exceeding the previous year’s figures. Demand continues to grow in the developing economies of Asia (primarily in India and Southeast Asia), compensating for the decline in coal use in Europe and North America. According to the IEA, in the first half of 2025, global coal consumption even slightly decreased due to increased renewable electricity production and mild weather; however, a small increase (~1%) is expected by year-end. Consequently, 2025 will mark the third consecutive year of close to record coal consumption.
Coal production is also rising — particularly in China and India, which are increasing domestic production to reduce import dependence. Prices for thermal coal remain stable overall, as strong Asian demand maintains market balance. However, analysts believe that global coal demand has reached a "plateau" and will gradually decline in the coming years as renewable energy development accelerates and climate policies tighten.
