Current Global News in Oil and Gas and Energy as of December 16, 2025: Oil and Gas Prices, Energy Market, Renewable Energy, Coal, Refineries, Processing, and Global Trends. Detailed Overview for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
Significant events in the fuel and energy complex (TEC) as of December 16, 2025, are capturing the attention of investors and market participants due to their ambiguity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced readiness to abandon NATO membership aspirations in exchange for security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe—this move fosters hopes for a potential de-escalation of the protracted conflict. Conversely, sanctions pressure on Russia continues to intensify: the European Union has extended the freezing of Russian assets indefinitely until the conflict concludes and is discussing a complete ban on remaining Russian oil supplies early in 2026, while also agreeing to permanently cease gas imports from Russia by 2027. On the global oil market, fundamental factors of oversupply and sluggish demand still dominate—Brent crude prices are holding around the lower boundary of $60 per barrel, reflecting a fragile balance of power. The European gas market is demonstrating relative resilience: gas storage facilities in the EU are filled to over 85%, providing a buffer ahead of winter and keeping prices at moderate levels. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining traction—new records for renewable generation are being established across various regions, although countries are not yet abandoning traditional resources for energy system reliability. In Russia, after previous price surges, authorities continue to implement a set of measures aimed at stabilizing the situation in the domestic fuel market. Below is a comprehensive overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, coal, and renewable sectors, as well as petroleum product and refining markets for this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply Keeps Prices at Multi-Year Lows
Global oil prices remain relatively stable but at a low level, influenced by fundamental factors. The North Sea Brent is trading around $60–62 per barrel, while American WTI is near $57–59. Current quotations are about 15% lower than levels a year ago, reflecting a gradual market correction after the peaks of the 2022–2023 energy crisis. The main reason for price pressure remains oversupply amidst moderate demand growth. In September, global oil production reached a record 109 million barrels per day, and although November volumes slightly decreased (by about 1.5 million barrels per day) due to targeted OPEC+ restrictions and disruptions among certain producers, overall supply remains abundant. Global oil stocks have risen to a four-year high of around 8 billion barrels, indicating an oversupply of about 1-2 million barrels per day for a significant portion of the year. OPEC+ signals its readiness to maintain or even intensify production cuts through 2026 to prevent further price declines. Sanctions against exporters like Russia and Iran have reduced their oil exports, but this is not yet sufficient to create a significant market deficit—other players, including Middle Eastern countries, have increased supplies. The market structure is close to contango (nearby futures prices lower than distant), indicating expectations of continued oil oversupply in the short term. At the same time, geopolitical risks—from the conflict in Eastern Europe to instability in the Middle East—continue to support the market, preventing prices from dropping too low. As a result, oil quotes are balancing within a narrow range, remaining at multi-year lows but without sharp declines, reflecting a fragile balance between oversupply and uncertainty factors.
Gas Market: Comfortable Reserves in Europe and Effects of Mild Weather
The European gas market at the end of the year appears calm and balanced. Storage levels in the EU remain high—around 85% of total capacity—significantly above long-term averages for December, ensuring supply reliability even with increased winter gas withdrawals. Exchange prices for gas are being held at relatively moderate levels: January futures at the TTF hub in Europe are trading around $350 per thousand cubic meters (about $35 per MWh), significantly lower than crisis peak levels from two years ago. Several factors contribute to this: firstly, relatively mild weather forecasts for the latter half of December have reduced heating demand expectations. Secondly, active supply diversification has borne fruit—Europe continues to receive stable volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S., Qatar, and other countries, compensating for reduced pipeline imports from Russia. Moreover, the EU has politically committed to permanently abandoning Russian gas by 2027, prompting long-term contracts with alternative suppliers and the development of its own infrastructure (LNG terminals, interconnections).
The global gas market is also showing moderate dynamics. In the U.S., natural gas prices (Henry Hub) dropped about 20% in the first half of December—below $5 per million British thermal units—due to abnormally warm weather and rising production. North Asia, traditionally the largest LNG consumer, is not experiencing a shortage this winter: China and Japan have accumulated sufficient reserves, and spot prices in Asia remain relatively restrained. Thus, the gas sector is entering winter in a fairly robust state. Despite geopolitical tensions and long-term changes in supply structure, the short-term outlook is favorable: reserves are adequate, prices are stable, and the market is able to absorb demand spikes without severe disruptions. Certainly, sudden cold anomalies or supply disruptions could temporarily spike prices, but there are no indications of a new gas crisis at this moment.
Electric Power: Rising Demand and Need for Grid Modernization
The global electricity sector is undergoing significant structural changes against the backdrop of rising demand and the energy transition. Electricity consumption in many countries is hitting record highs. In the U.S., 2025 is projected to see a historical maximum of approximately 4.2 trillion kWh, driven by the growth of data centers (including for AI and cryptocurrencies) and continuing electrification of transportation and heating. Similar trends are observable in other regions: globally, electricity demand is increasing by about 2-3% per year, outpacing economic growth, reflecting digitalization and the shift from fossil fuels to electricity across various sectors.
Generation structure is shifting towards cleaner sources, yet infrastructure challenges are intensifying. In Europe, the share of renewables in electricity production reached nearly 50% for the first time in the third quarter of 2025, but this required compensation for variability in generation through traditional capacities. Periods of weak wind or drought (affecting hydroelectricity) forced some countries to temporarily increase generation at gas and even coal-fired plants to meet demand. Power grids are under increased strain due to shifting energy flows between regions—for instance, excess solar generation in the south must flow to consumers in the north. The European Union is planning extensive updates and expansions of electricity grid infrastructure, as well as reforms of market rules—specifically, simplifying permitting processes for renewable generation and energy storage to mitigate "bottlenecks," otherwise by 2040 up to 300 TWh of renewable energy could go unused due to grid restrictions.
Energy experts highlight several priority areas to ensure the resilience of energy systems amid the energy transition:
- Modernization and expansion of electricity grids for effective energy transfer between regions and integration of renewable sources.
- Wide-scale implementation of energy storage systems (industrial batteries) to smooth peak loads and balance renewable generation output.
- Maintaining sufficient reserve capacities (gas, hydro, and nuclear plants) for potential abnormal demand peaks or disruptions in renewable generation.
Implementing these measures requires significant investments but is critically important for ensuring reliable energy supply. As a result, the electricity sector is entering 2026 with record demand and a growing share of "green" generation; however, the successful transition to a low-carbon system will depend on infrastructure's ability to adapt to new realities.
Renewable Energy Sources (RES): New Records and Global Growth
Renewable energy continues to set records and increase its share in the global energy balance. The year 2025 has been marked by a historic event: total electricity generation from RES (including wind, solar, hydro, and others) for the first time exceeded generation from coal globally. Rapid growth in solar and wind generation has allowed for covering the increase in electricity demand—with solar plants alone providing over 300 TWh of additional energy in the first half of the year, comparable to the annual consumption of a medium-sized country. At the same time, global output from coal-fired power plants slightly declined, reducing coal's share in electricity to around 33%, while RES reached approximately 34%.
Among the latest achievements in the RES sector, notable mentions include:
- A record wind generation in the UK—on December 5, wind farms reached a capacity of 23.8 GW, meeting over 60% of the country's electricity needs that day.
- China continues to lead in increasing clean energy: total installed RES capacity in China has reached approximately 1889 GW (about 56% of all capacities), with over half of new cars sold in the country being electric. This has helped keep CO2 emissions plateaued for the past year and a half.
- Renewable energy dominates the structure of new capacity additions. By the end of 2025, over 90% of all new power plants globally were solar, wind, and other RES projects, while the shares of gas and coal in new construction are minimal.
- Investments in "green" energy are setting records in developing countries: for instance, in the Philippines, RES projects worth almost 480 billion pesos were approved in 2025, and several countries in the Middle East and Latin America launched extensive programs supporting solar and wind generation.
Despite impressive successes, the RES sector also faces challenges. Regulatory uncertainty and grid limitations in some regions mean that part of the RES potential remains untapped. Experts are urging governments and businesses to accelerate efforts to integrate renewable sources: set ambitious targets, simplify bureaucratic processes for new projects, and invest in smart grids and energy storage. Nonetheless, the overall trajectory is clear—renewable energy is becoming the main driver of generation growth worldwide, gradually displacing hydrocarbon sources and bringing the global energy system closer to a more ecological and sustainable model.
Coal: Demand Decline and Price Decrease Amid the Energy Transition
The coal sector in 2025 is experiencing pressure from the energy transition and competition from cleaner sources. Global demand for coal has stabilized and is starting to gradually decline in some key economies. In China and India—countries that traditionally consume a lion's share of coal—the growth in electricity generation this year has largely been supported by the addition of new RES, allowing for coal consumption to be maintained or even reduced in relative terms. As a result, the share of coal-fired generation in the world has declined by more than 1 percentage point compared to last year.
Global prices for thermal coal are also reflecting weakened demand. By the end of the year, prices for Australian benchmark coal fell below $110 per ton, hovering near minimal values for recent months. Since the beginning of 2025, coal prices have dropped by approximately 15-20%, driven by high stockpiles at storage facilities, recovery in production after disruptions, and a relatively mild winter in key consuming regions. European coal price indices have slightly strengthened in the fall due to reduced output from nuclear power plants and low RES generation during certain weeks; however, the overall trend remains downward.
The structural reduction of coal's role in the energy systems of developed countries continues. Many nations are accelerating plans to phase out coal: in Europe, the last projects to decommission coal-fired plants are concluding by the end of the decade; in Australia, one of the largest power stations in Queensland has been prematurely closed six years ahead of schedule, and in the U.S., coal's share in generation has dropped to 16% and will continue to decline as new RES and gas capacities come online. However, coal still remains an important element of global energy—about a third of electricity generation is still supplied by coal plants, and for several developing countries, coal remains a cheap and accessible fuel for industry. In the coming years, coal demand may fluctuate depending on market conditions—gas prices, weather conditions, and economic activity. However, the long-term outlook points to a gradual twilight of the coal era: investments are shifting towards clean energy, financial markets are pricing in a rapid exit from fossil fuels, and the coal sector is increasingly being pushed to the periphery of the global TEC.
Petroleum Products: Price Stabilization After Autumn Shortages
The petroleum products market at the end of 2025 is showing signs of stabilization after the turbulence witnessed in the autumn. In October and early November, disruptions at several major refineries (scheduled repairs and unscheduled shutdowns) led to local shortages of diesel and kerosene in certain markets. Against this backdrop, global refining margins surged to levels comparable to those immediately following the onset of the conflict in 2022—particularly high were the crack spreads for diesel fuel, given its increased demand during the heating season and in industry.
However, by mid-December, the situation has normalized. Many refineries resumed operations at full capacity, compensating for the lost fuel production. Gasoline and distillate inventories in the U.S. and Europe began to recover, which lowered wholesale prices. Retail gasoline prices in the U.S. have declined from summer peaks and are now about 5-10% lower than a year ago, thanks to the falling price of oil and demand stabilization. In Europe, diesel prices have also retreated from recent highs, alleviating inflationary pressures on the transport sector. In Asia, where there has been a surge in demand for jet fuel throughout the year due to the recovery of air travel, kerosene imports increased by winter, saturating the market and halting price growth.
It is noteworthy that changes in global petroleum product trade are continuing under the influence of geopolitics. EU countries have refrained from importing Russian petroleum products since February 2023, redirecting their purchases towards the Middle East, Asia, and the U.S. Russia, in turn, has redirected part of its diesel and gasoline exports to Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. This redirection requires time for the market to rebalance, but overall, the global fuel supply system has adapted: fuel shortages are not observed, although logistics have become lengthier. Looking ahead to early 2026, new changes may be likely—if the European Commission acts on its intentions to fully ban the purchase of Russian oil, this will indirectly affect the petroleum products market, forcing EU refineries to operate solely on alternative feedstocks. Nevertheless, at this moment, the petroleum products market is entering winter relatively calmly: supplies of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are sufficient to meet demand, and prices are fluctuating within the usual seasonal range without signs of a new price shock.
Oil Refining (Refineries): Industry Modernization and Transition to Clean Fuels
Oil refineries worldwide are undergoing a transformation period as they strive to adapt to changing demands and environmental requirements. In Europe, there is a clear trend: refineries are pivoting towards producing cleaner types of fuel. Under pressure from the EU’s tightening emissions regulations and competition from new high-tech refineries in the Middle East and Asia, European refiners are investing billions of euros in modernization. The primary goal is to increase the production of eco-friendly products, such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), biodiesel, renewable propane, and other biofuels, which are in growing demand from the transport sector.
Another development direction is deepening processing and integration with petrochemicals. Major oil companies are seeking to enhance margin by processing oil not only into fuels but also into petrochemical products (plastics, fertilizers, etc.). Many modern refineries are essentially transforming into integrated complexes capable of flexibly adjusting output based on market conditions—for example, increasing jet fuel or fuel oil output when demand rises or processing part of the feedstock into naphtha for petrochemical use.
Key trends in the transformation of oil refining include:
- Decarbonization of processes: implementing carbon capture technologies, transitioning to hydrogen fuel, and utilizing renewable energy sources for the energy supply of the refineries themselves to reduce the carbon footprint of production.
- Capacity optimization: closing outdated and less efficient refineries in regions with excess capacities (e.g., Europe) and launching new modernized plants closer to centers of growing demand—in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
- Raw material flexibility: the capability to process various types of feedstock—from traditional crude oils of different grades to bio feedstocks (vegetable oils, waste) and synthetic crude. This allows refineries to operate amid changes in supplies caused by sanctions or market conditions.
The global volume of oil refining in 2025 is on the rise following the recovery of fuel consumption. According to industry forecasts, by 2026, total refinery throughput globally could reach approximately 84 million barrels per day, exceeding levels from 2024–2025. A significant portion of the new capacity increase is accounted for by the Middle East (e.g., expansion of large Saudi and Kuwaiti complexes) and Asia (new refineries in China, India), where domestic demand for fuels and petrochemicals is growing. At the same time, regional restructuring continues: North America and Europe are consolidating the industry, focusing on efficiency and ecology, while modern "full-cycle" plants are being built in developing economies.
Sanction and geopolitical factors have also impacted oil refining. Russian refineries, facing an embargo on the export of certain products and periodic restrictions, have redirected distribution to the domestic market and friendly countries, while the Russian government imposed temporary export bans and quotas on gasoline and diesel in the autumn of 2025 to stabilize prices domestically. These measures led to market saturation and subsequently decreased gasoline prices at the pumps in Russia by December. In the long run, international experts expect that global oil refining will increasingly shift to regions of oil consumption and growing demand for oil products, as well as adapt to the "green" transition—from producing alternative fuels to reducing emissions. The refining sector is entering 2026 in a relatively solid state—margins for most players remain positive thanks to the previous period of high prices. Nonetheless, the further success of the industry will depend on its ability to change: to produce cleaner, operate more efficiently, and fit into a new energy reality where the share of oil is gradually decreasing.
