Key News in the Oil and Gas Sector and Energy Industry for Friday, January 2, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Refineries, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market for Investors and Stakeholders in the Energy Sector.
Main Trends in the Global Energy Market
The year 2025 ended for the oil and gas sector against a backdrop of conflicting factors: oil prices decreased by nearly 20% due to concerns over oversupply, while geopolitical tensions supported demand for "safe" assets. Analysts believe that in 2026, oil markets may experience a supply glut, putting downward pressure on prices; however, local restrictions (the EU ban on petroleum products from Russia, attacks on refineries) are limiting exports and keeping prices elevated, especially for diesel fuel.
Trends in the gas markets are changing rapidly: Europe is reducing transit through Ukraine and plans to completely phase out Russian gas by 2028, increasing LNG imports. Asia is also restructuring supply routes in response to trade disputes. At the same time, global electricity demand is rising—driven by the rapid growth of data centers, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles—which is stimulating investments in renewable energy and energy storage.
Oil Market: Prices and Forecasts
- Price Environment: Experts forecast that in 2026, Brent oil will trade in the range of $60–65 per barrel. It is expected that total supply will exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day, leading to an inventory surplus.
- OPEC+ Policy: OPEC+ countries have suspended production increases and maintained previously announced production cuts. The total level of cuts remains at around 3.2 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to ~3% of global demand.
- Demand: The global economy is showing resilient growth, so oil demand is expected to rise by several hundred thousand barrels per day in 2026. Strong consumption growth is observed in Asia and the Middle East, while U.S. shale oil production is starting to decline slightly.
- Geopolitics: Prospects for a peaceful resolution in Ukraine could sharply change the oil market balance. Lifting sanctions and the return of Russian volumes to the market would lead to increased supply, whereas maintaining them would support prices.
Gas Market: Supply and Demand
- Pipelines: Exports of Russian gas via pipelines to Europe fell by more than 40% by the end of 2025 due to the closure of the Ukrainian route. The EU plans to completely phase out imports of Russian gas by 2028, leaving only a few transit routes.
- LNG and Alternatives: European countries are actively increasing LNG purchases from the U.S., Qatar, and other suppliers. At the same time, Asia sharply reduced LNG imports from the U.S. following the introduction of tariffs on American energy. Demand for LNG in China and India continues to rise as these countries seek to diversify their fuel sources.
- Regional Trends: Turkey is investing in gas infrastructure and storage to enhance its energy security. In China, demand for natural gas is expected to grow through 2035–2045 (reaching 620–650 billion cubic meters annually), stimulating further expansion of gas networks.
Renewable Energy and Electricity
- Electricity Demand: Electricity consumption in many countries is growing at record rates. In the U.S., it may exceed 4.2 trillion kWh by 2026, thanks to the data center boom, the development of AI, electrification of transportation, and the residential sector.
- Share of Renewables: The share of renewable sources in electricity generation is confidently increasing. By 2030, the total installed capacity of "green" generation could exceed 4.6 TW (with 80% coming from solar plants), and a noticeable increase in the share of wind and solar is expected in the coming years due to policy incentives and decreasing technology costs.
- Energy Storage: The implementation of battery systems is gaining momentum. Chinese manufacturers lead in this sector—exports of lithium-ion batteries for storage are estimated to have increased by 75% in 2025. Global investments in storage are also increasing and may exceed $60 billion by the end of the year.
Coal Sector
- Global Demand: According to the IEA forecast, coal consumption will reach a record 8.85 billion tons in 2025 (+0.5% from 2024) and will begin to gradually decline by the end of the decade as renewable energy, nuclear, and gas generation capacities grow.
- Regional Dynamics: In India, coal demand has decreased due to heavy rains and increased hydroelectricity, while in the U.S., it has risen amid rising gas prices. China, the largest consumer of coal (30% more than the rest of the world combined), showed stabilization in 2025, but a decline in coal's share of the energy balance is expected by the 2030s.
- Environmental Factors: Countries continue to balance climate goals and energy security. Even under decarbonization pressures, the coal sector remains important in several regions, creating uncertainty in policies and investments.
Refining and Oil Products
- Diesel Shortage: In 2025, European diesel margins increased by approximately 30% while oil prices fell. This is attributed to attacks on Ukrainian refineries and the EU's ban on fuel imports from Russian oil. Limited diesel supply maintains high product spreads.
- New Capacities: No large-scale refinery construction projects are planned in developed countries, leading to a structural shortage in the oil products market. Investors expect that high margins will persist until refining capacities increase.
- Venezuela: PDVSA is accumulating heavy residues in storage as sanctions limit the export of fuel oil. This exacerbates the shortage of bunker fuel and affects regions dependent on Venezuelan exports.
Corporate Events and Projects
- Contracts and Investments: Major companies are signing significant agreements. Italian Saipem secured a contract worth $425 million for the development of the Sakarya gas field in Turkey, while British Harbour Energy has become the operator of the Zama oil field in Mexico (≈750 million barrels of oil) and completed deals worth $3.2 billion in the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening its position.
- Mergers and Acquisitions: In December 2025, Harbour Energy acquired a 32% stake in the Zama project and secured control over the LLOG asset in the Gulf of Mexico. This made the company the operator of the two largest independent projects in the region.
- Sanctions and Licenses: Regulators continue to influence the energy sector. In Serbia, the oil refinery NIS (owned by Gazprom Neft) was granted a temporary OFAC license until January 2026, allowing it to resume operations following a suspension related to U.S. sanctions.
Financial and Market Indicators
- Exchange Trends: Leading stock indices in the energy sector reflect the situation in the commodity markets. At the end of 2025, Middle Eastern indices declined following falling oil prices (for example, the Saudi index dropped by 1%), while shares of major oil and gas companies experienced slight declines.
- Regulation and Monetary Policy: Central banks are influencing the investment climate. For instance, in Egypt, a 100 basis point cut in the key rate supported stock market growth (+0.9%), stimulating domestic demand. Similar measures are being discussed in other developing countries.
- Commodity Currencies: Currencies of energy-exporting countries remain relatively stable due to fiscal and budgetary mechanisms. The Russian ruble, Norwegian krone, and Canadian dollar are supported by revenues from oil and gas sales, which limits their volatility during price declines.
