Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of November 23, 2025: Market Dynamics, Energy Sector Situation, Renewable Energy, Coal, Geopolitics, Supply and Demand, Domestic Fuel Market
The current events in the oil, gas, and energy sector as of November 23, 2025, are attracting the attention of investors and market participants due to their contradictory nature. Unexpected diplomatic initiatives instill cautious optimism regarding the easing of geopolitical tensions, which is reflected in the decline of the "risk premium" in the oil market.
Global oil prices continue to face pressure due to oversupply and weakened demand—Brent quotes have dropped to around $62 per barrel (WTI around $58), reflecting a fragile balance of factors. The European gas market appears relatively stable: gas reserves in the underground storage facilities of EU countries remain high (over 80% of capacity), providing a buffer ahead of the winter season and keeping prices at relatively low levels.
At the same time, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—many countries are recording new records in electricity generation from renewable sources, although traditional resources are still required for the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, after a recent sharp rise in fuel prices, government measures are starting to yield results, stabilizing the situation in the domestic market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials segments as of this date.
Oil Market: Geopolitical Easing and Oversupply Push Prices Down
Global oil prices remain relatively low under the influence of fundamental factors. Brent is trading around $62–63 per barrel, WTI around $58, which is approximately 15% lower than a year ago. Several key factors are impacting price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Production Increase: The oil alliance continues to gradually increase supply. In December 2025, the total production quota for participants in the agreement will rise by approximately 137,000 barrels per day. Previously, from the summer, monthly increases were around 0.5–0.6 million barrels per day, leading to a return of global oil and petroleum product stocks to levels close to pre-pandemic. Although further quota increases for 2026 are on hold due to concerns of oversupply, the current growth in supply is already creating pressure on prices.
- Demand Slowdown: The growth rate of global oil consumption has significantly declined. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates demand growth in 2025 to be less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecast is now more restrained—around +1.2–1.3 million barrels per day. The weakening of the global economy and the impact of high prices from previous years are limiting consumption, with an additional factor being the slowdown in industrial growth in China, which restrains the appetite of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitical Signals: Reports of a potential peace plan for Ukraine from the U.S. have reduced some geopolitical uncertainty, eliminating the risk premium in prices. However, the absence of real agreements and ongoing sanctions pressure prevents the market from calming completely. Traders react reflexively to news: as long as peace initiatives are not actualized, their impact remains short-term.
- Shale Production Constraints: In the U.S., low prices have begun to curb the activity of shale producers. The number of drilling rigs in American oil basins is decreasing as quotes have fallen to ~$60. This signals greater caution among companies and threatens to slow the growth of U.S. supply if such prices persist over an extended period.
The cumulative effect of these factors is creating a situation close to a surplus: global supply is now slightly exceeding demand. Oil prices are firmly held below last year’s levels. A number of analysts believe that if current trends continue, the average price of Brent in 2026 could drop to around $50 per barrel. For now, the market remains in a relatively narrow range, receiving no impulse for either sharp growth or collapse.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with Supplies, Prices Remain Moderate
The focus of the gas market is Europe’s preparation for the heating season. EU countries have been actively filling their underground storage facilities (USF) over the summer and fall. By mid-November, European storage was filled to approximately 82% of total capacity—slightly below the target benchmark (90% by November 1), but still at a very comfortable level. This will provide a substantial reserve of gas in case of a cold winter. Exchange prices for gas remain low: December futures at the TTF hub are trading around €25–28/MWh (approximately $320–360 per thousand cubic meters), the lowest in over a year. Such moderate prices indicate a balance of supply and demand in the European market.
A significant role is played by high imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Thanks to active LNG shipments (including from the U.S. and Qatar), Europe has managed to compensate for the decline in pipeline deliveries from Russia and fill USFs ahead of schedule. In the autumn months, monthly LNG imports into the EU consistently exceeded 10 billion cubic meters. An additional factor is the relatively mild weather at the start of winter, which is restraining consumption and allowing for a slower draw from storage than usual. A potential risk ahead is a possible increase in competition for LNG from Asia if strong frosts hit the APEC region and demand for gas rises. However, at present, the balance in the European gas market appears stable, and prices remain relatively low. This situation is favorable for the industry and energy sectors in Europe at the start of the winter season.
International Politics: Peace Initiatives for Ukraine and New U.S. Sanctions
In the second half of November, encouraging signals have emerged in the geopolitical sphere. Reports indicate that the U.S. has prepared a conflict resolution plan for Ukraine, which, among other things, includes the lifting of some sanctions imposed against Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reportedly received urgent signals from Washington to promptly accept the proposed agreement developed with Moscow's participation. The prospect of peace agreements instills cautious optimism in the markets: de-escalating the conflict could eventually lift restrictions on Russian energy exports and improve the business climate.
However, no real changes to the sanctions regime have occurred yet—on the contrary, the West is intensifying pressure. New U.S. sanctions targeting the Russian oil and gas sector came into effect on November 21. Major companies "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL" are included in the restrictions: global counterparties are instructed to fully cease cooperation with them by this date. Earlier, the U.S. administration signaled its readiness to impose further measures if it does not see progress on the political track—including imposing strict tariffs on countries continuing to actively purchase Russian oil.
Thus, the lack of concrete breakthroughs on the diplomatic front means that sanctions pressure remains in full force. However, the very fact that dialogue continues provides a chance that the most severe steps from the West may be postponed for now. In the coming weeks, the market's attention will be fixed on the development of contacts among world leaders: positive shifts could improve investor sentiment and soften the rhetoric on sanctions, while a failure in negotiations could lead to a new escalation of restrictions. The outcomes of the current peace initiatives will have a long-term impact on energy cooperation and the rules of the game in the oil and gas market.
Asia: India Reduces Imports of Russian Oil, China Increases Purchases
- India: Faced with pressure from Western sanctions policies, New Delhi is forced to adjust its energy strategy. Earlier, Indian authorities clearly stated that a sharp reduction in imports of Russian oil and gas was unacceptable due to the key role these supplies play in ensuring energy security. However, under increased U.S. pressure, Indian refiners have begun to reduce purchases. The largest private oil company, Reliance Industries, has completely halted imports of Russian oil to its refinery in Jamnagar since November 20. To maintain the Indian market, Russian suppliers have had to offer additional discounts: December Urals oil shipments are being sold at about $5–6 below Brent prices (whereas in the summer the discount was around $2). As a result, India continues to purchase significant volumes of Russian oil on favorable terms, although overall imports will decline in the coming months. Meanwhile, the country’s leadership is taking steps to reduce dependence on imports in the long term. Back in August, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a national program for exploring deep-water oil and gas fields. Within this initiative, the state company ONGC has begun drilling ultra-deep wells (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea; the initial results are considered promising. This "deep-water mission" aims to open new hydrocarbon reserves and bring India closer to its goal of gradually achieving energy independence.
- China: The largest Asian economy is also adapting its energy import structure while simultaneously increasing domestic production. Chinese importers remain the leading buyers of Russian oil and gas—Beijing has not joined Western sanctions and has taken advantage of the situation to import raw materials at favorable prices. However, the latest sanctions steps from the U.S. and EU have led to adjustments: state traders in China have temporarily suspended new purchases of Russian oil, fearing secondary sanctions. The niche that emerged is partially filled by independent refiners. The newest refining facility, Yulong in Shandong province, has sharply increased its purchases and has reached a record volume of imports in November 2025—around 15 large tanker shipments (up to 400,000 barrels per day) predominantly consisting of Russian oil (ESPO, Urals, Sokol). Yulong took advantage of the fact that several suppliers canceled shipments of Middle Eastern raw materials after the sanctions and purchased the released volumes. Meanwhile, China is increasing its own oil and gas production: from January to July 2025, national companies extracted 126.6 million tons of oil (+1.3% compared to last year) and 152.5 billion cubic meters of gas (+6%). The growth in domestic production helps partially meet the increased demand but does not negate the need for imports. Analysts estimate that in the coming years, China will still depend on external oil supplies for at least 70%, and gas for about 40%. Thus, India and China—two largest Asian consumers—continue to play a key role in global raw material markets, combining import security strategies with the development of their own resource base.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records While Traditional Energy Remains Important
The global transition to clean energy is rapidly gaining momentum. Many countries are recording new records in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES). In the European Union, by the end of 2024, total generation from solar and wind power plants for the first time exceeded electricity generation from coal and gas-fired power plants. The trend has continued into 2025: new capacities have allowed a further increase in the share of "green" electricity in the EU, while the share of coal in the energy balance has begun to decline after a temporary increase during the energy crisis of 2022–2023. In the U.S., renewable energy has also reached historic levels—by early 2025, over 30% of total generation came from RES, and the combined output of wind and solar surpassed electricity generation at coal plants. China, the world leader in installed RES capacity, is continuously commissioning tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind generators, consistently breaking its own generation records.
In general, companies and investors around the world are directing vast amounts of money toward the development of clean energy. According to IEA estimates, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion, with more than half of this money being allocated to RES projects, electrical grid modernization, and energy storage systems. At the same time, energy systems continue to rely on traditional generation to ensure stability in energy supply. The increased share of solar and wind creates new challenges for balancing the network during hours when renewable sources are not generating power (at night or during calm weather). Gas and even coal power plants are still being utilized to cover peak demand and reserve capacity. For instance, in some regions of Europe during the previous winter, it was necessary to temporarily increase output at coal plants during periods of calm weather—despite environmental costs. Governments in many countries are actively investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage plants) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly distributing loads. These measures aim to enhance the reliability of energy supply as the share of RES grows. Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable sources may globally surpass coal in total electricity generation. However, in the next few years, there remains a need to maintain classic power plants as a safeguard against outages. Thus, the energy transition is reaching new heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources.
Coal: High Demand Keeps the Market Stable
Despite the accelerated development of RES, the global coal market still maintains significant volumes and remains a crucial part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal fuel remains consistently high, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity needs support intensive consumption of this resource. China—the world's largest consumer and producer of coal—has approached record levels of electricity generation from coal this autumn. In October 2025, power generation at Chinese thermal power plants (primarily coal-fired) increased by 7% compared to the previous year and reached a historical maximum for that month, reflecting increased energy consumption (the total volume of electricity production in China in October set a 30-year record). Meanwhile, coal production in China has decreased by ~2% due to increased safety measures in mines, which has led to rising domestic prices. By mid-November, prices for energy coal in China rose to a maximum in the past year (around 835 yuan/ton at the key port hub of Qinhuangdao), stimulating an increase in imports. Coal import volumes into China are at a high level—it's expected that in November, the country will import approximately 28–29 million tons via sea, compared to a minimum of ~20 million tons in June of this year. Increased Chinese demand supports global coal prices: prices for Indonesian and Australian thermal coal have risen to multi-month highs (30–40% above summer lows).
Other major importing countries, such as India, are also actively using coal for electricity generation—over 70% of generation in India is still accounted for by coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption is growing along with the economy. Many developing countries in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) continue to build new coal power plants to meet the growing demand for electricity from the population and industry. Leading coal exporters (Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa) are increasing production and shipments to take advantage of favorable conditions. Overall, after price spikes in 2022, the international coal market has returned to a more stable state. Although many countries have announced plans to reduce coal use for climate goals, in the short term, this type of fuel remains indispensable for ensuring reliable energy supply. Analysts note that in the next 5–10 years, coal generation, especially in Asia, will maintain a significant role, even despite global decarbonization efforts. Thus, there is currently relative equilibrium in the coal sector: demand remains high, prices moderate, and the industry remains one of the fundamental pillars of global energy.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Stabilization Due to Government Measures
In the domestic fuel sector of Russia, steps are being taken to normalize the pricing situation. By the end of summer, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in the country had reached record levels, causing local fuel shortages at several gas stations. The government was forced to strengthen market regulation: since September, restrictions on the export of oil products have been introduced, while oil refineries have increased production following the completion of scheduled repairs. By mid-October, thanks to these measures, exchange quotes for fuel began to trend downward from peak levels.
The downward trend continued into November. According to the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange, as of the week ending November 21, the price of A-92 gasoline fell by 5.3%, while A-95 dropped by 2.6%. Just during the trading session on Friday, November 21, the price for A-92 ton decreased to 60,286 rubles, and A-95 fell to 71,055 rubles. The wholesale price for summer diesel fell by 3.3% over the week. As noted by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the stabilization of the wholesale market will soon be reflected in retail prices—consumer gasoline prices have begun to decline for the second consecutive week (on average minus 13–15 kopecks per liter). On November 20, the State Duma passed a law aimed at ensuring priority supply of fuel to the domestic market. In general, the measures taken have already yielded initial results: the rise in prices has shifted to a decline, and the situation is normalizing after the autumn fuel crisis. Authorities hope to maintain control over prices and prevent new spikes in fuel costs in the coming months.
