Oil and Gas News — February 28, 2026

Current Oil, Gas, and Energy News as of February 28, 2026: Market Dynamics of Oil and OPEC+ Decisions, Gas and LNG Market Situation, Electricity and Renewable Energy, Coal, Oil Products, and Refineries. A Global Overview for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.

The global energy market heads into the weekend amidst increased volatility: oil maintains a "geopolitical premium" due to rising tensions surrounding the Middle East and expectations surrounding OPEC+ decisions. The gas and electricity markets are balancing between weather factors, LNG volumes, and generation status, while oil products and refineries signal an approaching seasonal demand shift. For investors and energy sector participants, the key question in the coming days is whether the risk premium in oil will persist and how quickly the flows of raw materials and fuels will be redistributed across regions.

Oil: Prices Held Up by Risk Premium and Supply Expectations

Crude oil prices finished the week with a notable increase, reflecting a reevaluation of supply risks through key maritime routes and the likelihood of short-term export disruptions from the Persian Gulf region. The market is pricing in scenarios where physical flows may be "reoriented" (redirected shipments, increased spot premiums, higher freight rates) even prior to actual supply constraints. Under such conditions, spreads and differentials among types of crude oil are becoming as important as the futures themselves: market participants are particularly attentive to the premiums of Middle Eastern benchmark grades and the resilience of demand in Asia.

• Drivers: Middle Eastern geopolitics, OPEC+ production expectations, demand dynamics in Asia, inventory signals in the U.S.
• Risks: Rapid return of "oversupply" upon de-escalation, increased competition for market share.

OPEC+: The Market Awaits "Fine-tuning" of Quotas and Signals for Spring

The focus is on the potential return to moderate production increases by key OPEC+ players. The "small step" scenario is perceived as a compromise: on one hand, it helps maintain market share amid competition and possible summer demand growth; on the other, it does not overload the balance amidst global economic slowdown risks. Investors are separately assessing the likelihood of expedited decisions in case of sudden geopolitical flare-ups: in such a configuration, not only the official quotas but also the actual ability to quickly ramp up export shipments becomes crucial.

1. Base Scenario: Cautious production increase starting in April with "managed" market stability.
2. Alternative: Maintaining restrictions in the event of demand deterioration or inventory buildup.
3. Stress Scenario: Short-term supply increases by individual producers to compensate for potential disruptions.

U.S.: Stocks, Production, and Refineries - Signals of Balance in Raw Materials and Fuels

American statistics on the oil balance indicate that there may be sharp weekly fluctuations on the raw material side: rising commercial inventories may coincide with declining refinery utilization rates and changes in imports. For the global energy market, this means that even with increasing oil inventories in the U.S., the situation regarding oil products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) may remain tighter due to processing limitations and seasonal demand trends. Market participants are also closely monitoring refinery margins and product spreads, as these determine the motivation for refineries to increase utilization.

• What to Watch for Investors: Trends in gasoline and distillate inventories, refinery utilization rates, raw material and product imports.
• Market Conclusion: An increase in oil inventories alone is not necessarily "bearish" if the oil product market remains tight.

Gas and LNG: Europe, Asia, and Competition for Molecules

The gas market continues to operate within a framework of regional competition. Europe enters the end of winter with an elevated sensitivity to weather and supply stability, while the role of LNG remains central: increased volumes at terminals and flexible delivery options help mitigate price spikes. In Asia, LNG demand is traditionally supported by seasonal factors and electricity needs, while the dynamics of spot quotations reflect the battle for "quick" shipments. For portfolios in the energy sector, this creates divergent effects: gas producers and LNG projects benefit from steady demand, while energy-intensive industries benefit from periods of price corrections.

1. Europe: Focused on inventories in underground storage facilities, weather conditions, and the availability of Norwegian and LNG flows.
2. Asia: Demand from the energy and industrial sector, sensitivity to freight rates and spot premiums.
3. U.S.: Balancing internal demand, LNG exports, and weather surprises affecting Henry Hub.

Electricity and Renewables: Volatility Due to Wind, Temperature, and Generation Availability

Electricity markets remain jittery where balance relies on weather-dependent generation and limited system maneuverability. During periods of reduced wind generation and increased demand, the role of gas generation intensifies, directly connecting electricity prices with gas quotations and carbon costs. Concurrently, spikes in wind generation and high output from renewables can sharply "land" spot prices in specific markets. For the global energy market, this indicates that investment stories in renewables increasingly rely on the quality of grids, energy storage, flexible capacities, and capacity market rules.

• Weekly Focus: Weather forecasts, intersystem flow capacity, and availability of nuclear and gas generation.
• Company Practice: Hedging electricity and gas, managing load profiles, contracting renewable energy.

Coal and Carbon: Renewed Interest in Coal and Price Anchors for Energy Balance

Coal remains a crucial part of the energy balance in many regions, especially when gas is expensive or constrained and electricity demand is high. Prices for thermal coal are supported by a combination of seasonal demand and logistical constraints, along with competition between the Atlantic and Pacific markets. Simultaneously, carbon markets in Europe respond to renewables output dynamics and gas-burning: an increase in the share of wind and solar decreases the need for quotas for thermal generation, creating "windows" for adjustments. As a result, coal and carbon become part of a single equation, influencing energy companies' fuel mix decisions.

1. Coal: Price support amidst strong demand and supply constraints.
2. Carbon: Sensitivity to wind, electricity demand, and generation structure.
3. Conclusion: Coal remains a backup anchor for energy security where renewable infrastructure and grids are not yet fully developed.

Oil Products and Refineries: Margins, Seasonality, and Disruption Risks

The oil products segment is gradually shifting focus from winter distillates to preparations for spring-summer gasoline and jet fuel demand. In this regard, two factors are critical: scheduled refinery maintenance and the resilience of logistics (marine transportation, bottlenecks in channels, freight). Even with relatively balanced oil supplies, localized fuel shortages can create price spikes in specific markets. For oil companies and traders, this emphasizes the importance of managing product portfolios, optimizing processing, and accessing flexible logistics.

• What is Important to the Market: Refinery maintenance schedules, diesel and gasoline export flows, aviation demand.
• Global Effect: A shortage of oil products can support oil prices even amid rising raw material inventories.

What This Means for Investors and Energy Sector Participants: A Checklist for the Next 24 Hours

In the horizon of 24–72 hours, key decisions and publications may rapidly shift expectations for oil, gas, and electricity. Strategically, the energy market remains in a "risk reassessment" mode: geopolitics shapes the oil premium, OPEC+ provides the supply framework, and weather factors and renewables determine the volatility of gas and electricity. In such an environment, those who manage risks effectively and have access to physical flows stand to benefit.

1. Oil: Monitor news from the Middle East and comments preceding OPEC+ decisions; assess grade differentials and spreads.
2. Gas and LNG: Track weather patterns in Europe and North America, extraction/injection rates in underground storage, and spot dynamics in Asia.
3. Electricity and Renewables: Observe wind and temperature forecasts, availability of baseload generation, and network constraints.
4. Coal and Oil Products: Check logistics news, refinery maintenance, and processing margins.

Saturday, February 28, 2026, unfolds under the banner of "uncertainty premium" in oil and high sensitivity of the energy sector to weather and infrastructure conditions. For global energy portfolios, an optimal approach looks like a combination of risk discipline, a focus on flows (not just prices), and prioritization of companies with robust logistics, resilient processing capabilities, and competitive extraction costs.