Oil and Gas News and Energy: Friday, September 11, 2026 — Brent Holds Above $102 After Largest Tanker Attack in the Strait of Hormuz, Gas in Europe Exceeds €80
The global fuel and energy complex greets Friday, September 11, 2026, in a state of full price shock. For the first time since late May, Brent crude is trading above $102 per barrel, the European gas benchmark TTF has surpassed the €80 mark per MWh for the first time since January 2023, while underground gas storage in the EU is only two-thirds full against a seasonal norm of over 80%. The trigger was the most extensive wave of attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war, coupled with a second front in the Red Sea. For investors, oil and fuel companies, refinery operators, and participants in the gas, coal, electricity, and renewable energy markets, the key question of the day is how much more geopolitical premium the global economy can absorb before demand for energy resources begins to collapse.
Key Theme of the Day: Tanker War in the Strait of Hormuz Escalates to New Level
In the early hours of Wednesday, the U.S. sank five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near the island of Kharg as part of the "tanker for tanker" policy announced by Washington in early September. Tehran responded with attacks on ten vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and a missile strike on the U.S. base at Al Azraq in Jordan. According to maritime monitors, at least one crew member from the tanker is dead, and another is reported missing. This marks the largest series of strikes on commercial shipping since the war began on February 28.
The physical outlook for the oil and gas market is deteriorating in three key areas:
- Expansion of the no-go zone. The IRGC has declared a maritime restricted zone from Chabahar through the Gulf of Oman into the Arabian Sea and urged tanker crews off the coasts of Bahrain and Kuwait to leave their vessels immediately.
- Insurance and freight. New incidents effectively eliminate the availability of war risk coverage for vessels taking "unauthorized" routes, further locking transit through the Strait at minimal levels.
- Environmental risk. Damaged and partially submerged tankers in the Persian Gulf pose a threat to desalination plants and coastal infrastructure in Gulf countries.
Oil: Brent Above $102, WTI at $96 — Market Rewrites Price Expectations
Key oil market benchmarks as of Friday morning:
- Brent (November contract, ICE): Increased by 3.4% to $101.21 on Wednesday, briefly reaching $102.4–102.9 on Thursday — the highest level since May 22. The yearly peak of $126.41 (April 30) remains a benchmark for the bearish scenario regarding Hormuz.
- WTI (October contract, NYMEX): Held steady in the $96–97 range per barrel.
- Forecasts: The September review from the U.S. Department of Energy set the average Brent price at around $90 for the second half of 2026 and a decrease to $74 in 2027 — figures that look outdated just two days post-publication at current prices. Long-term models from several Asian banks indicate $113–114 in 12 months.
Stocks and Physical Balance
Global oil stocks have decreased by approximately 400 million barrels since the start of the year, while a recovery in production in the Middle East to pre-war levels has been postponed to the second quarter of 2027. The U.S. Strategic Reserve stands at around 286.6 million barrels, the lowest since the early 1980s. Commercial oil stocks in the U.S. before the postponed Thursday weekly report were at 424.5 million barrels with refinery utilization at 98%; distillate stocks are 14% below the five-year average and are projected to fall below 100 million barrels as early as September.
OPEC+ and Monthly Reports
Seven OPEC+ countries at their meeting on September 6 maintained October quotas unchanged after six consecutive months of production increases; the next meeting is scheduled for October 4. The monthly OPEC report, due on Thursday, frames demand after the August downgrade of the consumption growth forecast for 2026 to 0.58 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency expects a decline in global demand of 1.6 million barrels per day amid a deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 8.3 million barrels per day in Gulf production, which remains halted.
Red Sea: Houthis Strike Jazan Refinery, Opening Second Front for Oil Exports
While the market watched Hormuz, Yemeni Houthis struck the Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Jazan with a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day with a series of drone and missile attacks on September 7-8, as well as on storage facilities in Jazan and Abha. The plant is shut down, and the coalition led by Riyadh has promised to "respond to the sources of threats." Simultaneously, Houthis are engaged in fighting at the port of Mocha, approaching the Bab-el-Mandeb coastline.
The significance of this front for the global energy market is substantial: following the closure of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia redirected exports via the East-West pipeline to the Yanbu terminal, through which over 90% of the kingdom's maritime supplies were transported in June. The embargo declared by the Houthis has forced Asian shipments to be redirected through the Suez Canal, extending the trip by approximately 30 days and increasing freight costs. The threat to Yanbu represents a risk to the last major bypass route for Middle Eastern oil.
European Gas Market: TTF Exceeds €80, Storage at 67% — Worst Start to Winter in 15 Years
The front-month TTF futures traded at €80.3–80.8 per MWh (approximately $985 per thousand cubic meters) on Thursday, surpassing €80 for the first time since the winter of 2023. Since the onset of the conflict, prices have risen by about 150%, and over 120% since the beginning of the year. The British NBP approached 200 pence per therm. Drivers of growth include:
- attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and the ongoing halt to LNG exports from Qatar;
- expansion of the JKM–TTF spread, redirecting spot cargoes to Asia;
- record low inventories: as of September 9, EU gas storage is filled at 67.33% (71.87 billion cubic meters) against a five-year average of about 84%.
The disparity between countries remains critical: Germany — about 53%, Austria — 67%, France — 71%, Italy — 83%. European operators are injecting gas at record rates, but at the highest prices in four years. In contrast, on the American market, Henry Hub has dropped below $2.8 per MMBtu — the transatlantic arbitrage for U.S. LNG exporters has reached historical proportions.
LNG and Coal: Atlantic and Coal Generation Fill the Gap Left by Qatar
Damage to the Ras Laffan complex has incapacitated around 17% of Qatar's export capacity; full recovery is estimated to take up to five years, incurring a loss of around $20 billion in revenue per year. Approximately 15 loaded LNG tankers are idling beyond Hormuz, with another two loading at the port — the market sees the return of empty vessels home as a potential preparation for resuming shipments, but without passage through the Strait, this remains a signal rather than a supply.
For the coal sector, the LNG crisis creates an unplanned demand window. The volume of switching from gas to coal in Europe and Asia is estimated at 40–60 million tons; coal-fired power generation in South Korea has increased by nearly 40%, and in Japan by over 11%. Newcastle prices remain around $130 per ton, supported by disruptions in Indonesian supplies, while global coal demand in 2026 could increase by around 3% — reaching 9.1 billion tons.
Oil Products and Refineries: Refining Margins Increase, Russia Manually Controls Domestic Market
The global medium distillates market remains the tightest segment: a shortage of diesel and jet fuel in Asia and Europe supports cracking spreads at multi-year highs, while planned autumn maintenance at U.S. refineries temporarily reduces supply. The shutdown of Jazan removes an additional 200,000 barrels per day of diesel and naphtha export volumes from the market.
In Russia, the domestic oil product market is operating manually:
- The complete ban on gasoline exports has been extended until January 31, 2027, with the exchange sale norm reduced to 10% (of which 8% are addressed deals), effectively leaving around 2% of output for the free market;
- Exchange indices paradoxically decline despite the shortage: the average price for AI-92 at the SPbMTSB on September 8 stood at 69,200 rubles per ton, and AI-95 at 71,800 rubles per ton, with trading volumes at 11,600 tons per session — three times lower than normal;
- The reason is shipment delays on exchange contracts due to refinery outages following drone attacks; the price gap between bases reaches 25,000 rubles per ton;
- The shortage is being compensated by maritime imports of gasoline from India, amounting to up to 400,000 tons per month.
Electricity and Renewables: Energy Transition as the Only Predictable Trend
Amid the commodity chaos, a structural shift in electricity is accelerating. Global electricity demand is projected to grow by 3.6% in 2026, driven by data centers, electric transportation, and air conditioning, while renewable sources will for the first time surpass coal in global output. Solar generation is expected to add around 600 TWh and move into second place after hydropower. However, short-term vulnerabilities persist: in Europe, the share of wind energy fell below 15% of demand at the beginning of the week, which directly translated into rising gas and electricity prices. Every euro increase in TTF enhances the economics of storage, network investments, and long-term contracts for "green" electricity.
Calendar: What Energy Market Participants Should Watch for on Friday
- Market reaction to the monthly OPEC report and the postponed weekly statistics from the U.S. Department of Energy on oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories.
- August inflation data in the U.S.: the commodity shock increases the likelihood of a shift in the Federal Reserve's rhetoric, which restrains speculative demand for oil.
- Statements from the coalition on Yemen and any signals about the state of the Yanbu terminal.
- Dynamics of injection into European gas storage and the JKM–TTF spread as an indicator of competition for spot LNG.
- Weekly results on the SPbMTSB and decisions by Russian regulators regarding exchange norms and fuel imports.
Conclusions and Risks for Investors and Energy Sector Companies
- Oil. The $100 level has turned from resistance to support; the range of scenarios for the quarter extends from $85 in the case of de-escalation to $120 amid new attacks on vessels and Red Sea infrastructure.
- Gas. Europe enters the heating season with historically low inventory levels; during a cold winter, TTF quotations above €90–100 per MWh become a baseline rather than a stress scenario.
- Coal. Northeastern Asia and part of Europe will maintain elevated coal consumption until Qatari LNG supplies recover — at least until spring 2027.
- Oil Products and Refineries. Cracking spreads support the margins of refiners outside of conflict zones; in Russia, profitability is shifting from independent filling stations to vertically integrated companies.
- Renewables and Electricity. Long-term capital flows into solar and wind generation, storage, and networks remain the only sustainable investment idea amidst geopolitical volatility.
The day's verdict for the global oil and gas and energy markets: two maritime chokepoints — Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb — are simultaneously under fire, and their conditions, rather than OPEC+ quotas or macro statistics, will determine prices for oil, gas, and electricity in the coming weeks. For participants in the energy market, scenario planning, supply logistics diversification, and hedging discipline are critically important.
