Global News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Saturday, February 7, 2026: Oil, Gas, Energy, Renewable Energy Sources, Coal, Refineries, Electricity, and Key Events in the Global Energy Market.
By February 2026, the global oil and gas market is characterized by opposing factors: an oversupply and ongoing geopolitical tension. Western countries continue to intensify sanctions against the export of energy resources from Russia (effective February, the price cap on Russian oil has been lowered to $44.1 per barrel), while key importers like India are reevaluating their procurement strategies under external diplomatic pressure. Meanwhile, oil prices remain relatively stable (Brent around $68 per barrel) thanks to expectations of a supply surplus. The European gas market is passing the winter without much excitement, despite a rapid decrease in gas storage levels, aided by mild weather and high LNG supply. Concurrently, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: renewable energy capacity is setting records, although traditional resources—oil, gas, and coal—still play a key role in global energy supply. This review presents the current trends in the fuel and energy sector (oil, gas, petroleum products, electricity, coal, and renewable energy) as of February 7, 2026.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus Amid Sanctions
At the beginning of February, oil prices stabilized after moderate growth: North Sea Brent is trading around $68 per barrel, and US WTI around $64. The market is balancing between oversupply and geopolitical risks. A significant oil surplus is expected in the first quarter of 2026—according to the IEA, global supply may outpace demand by approximately 4 million barrels per day. At the same time, threats of disruption (from Iran, Venezuela, and others) prevent prices from falling much below current levels. Several factors are influencing the situation:
- Increased Production and Slowing Demand. The OPEC+ oil alliance has increased production in 2025 following a prolonged period of restrictions, but at the beginning of 2026, it halted any further quota increases. However, non-OPEC supply is rising: the US, Brazil, and other countries have reached record oil production levels. Concurrently, global demand growth is slowing amid a restrained state of the world economy: China’s economy is expected to grow by about 5% in 2026 (compared to over 8% in 2021-2022), while high interest rates in the US and Europe limit consumption. The IEA forecasts global oil demand to increase in 2026 by only about 0.9 million barrels per day (for comparison, in 2023 the growth surpassed 2 million).
- Sanctions and Geopolitical Risks. A new round of sanctions took effect in early February: the EU and the UK have reduced the price cap on Russian oil to $44.1 per barrel (from $47.6), aiming to cut Moscow’s oil revenues. Simultaneously, the threat of supply disruptions from troubled regions remains. The US has taken a tougher stance on Iran, not ruling out military measures against its oil infrastructure; a political crisis in Venezuela has temporarily reduced exports; drone attacks and accidents in Kazakhstan have cut production at certain fields. All of these factors increase the risk premium in the oil market, partially offsetting the pressure from oversupply.
- Reconfiguration of Export Flows. Major Asian consumers are adjusting their oil import structures. India, which was buying over 2 million barrels per day of Russian oil not long ago, has begun to reduce these supplies under Western pressure: in January 2026, the volume fell to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day—the lowest in nearly a year. New Delhi does not plan a complete abandonment of Russian hydrocarbons yet; however, the decrease in purchases forces Moscow to redirect exports to other markets, primarily China. Chinese refineries are increasing purchases of Russian crude at reduced prices, strengthening the energy partnership between Beijing and Moscow.
Gas Market: Declining Storage Levels in Europe and Record LNG Imports
By February, the European gas market remains relatively calm, although underground gas storage (UGS) levels are rapidly decreasing as winter progresses. Storage in Europe fell to around 44% of total capacity by the end of January—this is the lowest level for this time of year since 2022 and significantly below the ten-year average (around 58%). Nevertheless, a mild winter and steady LNG supplies help avoid shortages and price shocks. Gas futures (TTF index) are holding at moderate levels, reflecting market confidence in resource availability. The situation is defined by several key trends:
- Depleting Supplies and the Need for Replenishment. Winter consumption leads to a rapid decline in gas volumes in storage. If current trends continue, the UGS in the EU could be filled to only around 30% by the end of March. To once again raise storage levels to a comfortable 80-90% before the next winter, European importers will need to inject around 60 billion cubic meters of gas during the inter-season. Achieving this will require maximizing purchases in the warmer months, especially since a significant portion of imported gas is used immediately for current consumption. The market faces a daunting task of replenishing underground reserves before autumn, which will be a serious test for traders and infrastructure.
- Record LNG Deliveries. A decrease in pipeline supplies is being offset by unprecedented LNG imports. In 2025, European countries purchased around 175 billion cubic meters of LNG (+30% compared to the previous year), and in 2026, imports are expected to reach 185 billion cubic meters. The increase in purchases is supported by an expanded global supply: the commissioning of new LNG plants in the US, Canada, Qatar, and other countries will boost global LNG production by an additional approximately 7% this year (the highest rate since 2019). The European market aims to navigate the heating season once again through high LNG purchases, especially since the European Union has decided to completely halt imports of Russian gas by 2027, which will require replacing around 33 billion cubic meters annually with additional LNG volumes.
- Eastern Export Reorientation. Russia, having lost the European gas market, is increasing supplies to the east. Volumes through the Power of Siberia pipeline to China reached record levels (close to the designed capacity of ~22 billion cubic meters per year), while Moscow is accelerating negotiations to build a second pipeline through Mongolia. Russian producers are also increasing LNG exports to Asia from the Far East and the Arctic. However, even with the eastern direction, overall gas exports from Russia have significantly decreased compared to pre-2022 levels. The long-term reconfiguration of gas flows continues, solidifying a new global gas supply map.
Petroleum Products and Refining Market: Capacity Growth and Stabilization Measures
The global petroleum products market (gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) is demonstrating relative stability at the beginning of 2026 after a period of upheaval. Demand for motor fuels remains high due to the recovery of transport activity and industrial production. At the same time, the increase in global refining capacity is facilitating the satisfaction of this demand. After the shortages and price peaks of recent years, the market supply of gasoline and diesel is gradually normalizing, although shortages are still observed in certain regions. Key characteristics of the sector are as follows:
- New Refineries and Increased Processing. Large refining capacities are being commissioned in Asia and the Middle East, which is increasing overall fuel output. For example, the modernization of Bahrain’s Bapco refinery expanded its capacity from 267,000 to 380,000 barrels per day, with new plants coming online in China and India. According to OPEC, the global refining capacity is expected to increase by approximately 0.6 million barrels per day annually from 2025 to 2027. The growth in petroleum product supply has already led to a decrease in refining margins compared to the record levels of 2022-2023, alleviating price pressure for consumers.
- Price Stabilization and Local Disbalances. Gasoline and diesel prices globally have moved away from peaks, reflecting the cheaper oil and increased supply. However, local surges are still possible: for example, winter frosts in North America temporarily increased demand for heating fuel, while in some European countries, a heightened premium on diesel persists due to the restructuring of logistics chains following the embargo on Russian supplies. Governments are, in some cases, activating smoothing mechanisms—from reducing fuel excise taxes to releasing part of strategic reserves—to keep prices under control during sudden demand spikes.
- Government Regulation to Ensure Market Stability. In some countries, authorities continue to intervene in the fuel market to stabilize supply. In Russia, following the fuel crisis of 2025, restrictions on petroleum product exports remain: the ban on the export of gasoline and diesel for independent traders has been extended until summer 2026, and oil companies are allowed only limited supplies abroad. At the same time, the price damping mechanism, whereby the government compensates refining plants for the difference between internal and export fuel prices, is extended, encouraging domestic market supplies. These measures have alleviated the gasoline shortage at gas stations, although they emphasize the importance of manual market management. In other regions (for example, in some Asian countries), authorities are also resorting to temporary support measures—tax reductions, transportation subsidies, or increased imports—to mitigate the effects of sharp fuel price fluctuations.
Electric Power Sector: Growing Consumption and Network Modernization
The global electric power sector is experiencing accelerated demand growth, accompanied by significant infrastructure challenges. According to the IEA, global electricity consumption is expected to grow by more than 3.5% annually over the next five years—significantly outpacing the overall energy consumption growth. The drivers include the electrification of transport (growth of electric vehicle fleets), the digitalization of the economy (expansion of data centers, development of AI), and climate factors (active use of air conditioning in hot climates). After a period of stagnation in the 2010s, electricity demand is once again increasing even in developed countries. At the same time, energy systems require substantial investments to maintain reliability and connect new capacities. Key trends in the electric power sector are as follows:
- Modernization and Expansion of Networks. The growing load on networks demands modernization and construction of new transmission lines. Many countries are launching programs to upgrade grid infrastructure, accelerate the construction of power lines, and digitalize energy flow management. According to the IEA, currently, over 2500 GW of new generation capacities and major consumers worldwide are awaiting connection to the electric networks—bureaucratic delays are measured in years. Overcoming these "bottlenecks" is becoming critically important: it is projected that annual investments in power networks must increase by 50% by 2030, or else the development of generation will outpace infrastructure capabilities.
- Supply Reliability and Energy Storage. Energy companies are implementing new technologies to maintain stable electricity supply under record loads. Widespread development of energy storage systems—industrial battery farms with rapidly growing capacities are being built in California and Texas (USA), Germany, the UK, Australia, and other regions. These batteries help balance daily peaks and integrate the irregular generation of renewable energy sources (RES). Meanwhile, network protection is being enhanced: the industry is investing in cybersecurity and equipment upgrades, considering the risks of reduced reliability due to extreme weather, infrastructure wear, and cyberattack threats. Governments and electricity-generating companies worldwide are directing significant funds towards enhancing the flexibility and resiliency of energy systems to avoid blackouts amidst the growing economy's dependence on electricity.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth and New Challenges
The transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. 2025 was a record year for the commissioning of renewable energy (RES) capacities—primarily solar and wind power plants. According to preliminary data from the IEA, in 2025, RES accounted for 30% of global electricity generation for the first time, equal to coal share, while nuclear generation also reached a record level. In 2026, clean energy is expected to continue increasing production at an accelerated pace. Global investments in the energy transition are reaching new highs: according to BNEF, in 2025, over $2.3 trillion was invested in clean energy and electric transport projects (+8% compared to 2024). Leading economies’ governments are increasing support for green technologies, seeing them as drivers of sustainable growth. The European Union has introduced stricter climate goals, requiring the accelerated introduction of carbon-free capacities and reforms of the emissions market; in the US, the implementation of stimulus packages for renewable energy and electric vehicles continues. However, the rapid development of the sector also faces certain difficulties:
- Material Shortages and Rising Project Costs. The surge in demand for RES equipment has led to rising prices for critically important components. In 2024-2025, record prices for polysilicon (a key material for solar panels) and noticeable increases in copper, lithium, and rare earth metals, necessary for turbines and batteries, were recorded. Rising production costs and supply chain disruptions occasionally slowed the implementation of new RES projects and reduced manufacturers’ margins. However, by the second half of 2025, prices for many materials began to stabilize due to expanded production and measures taken to address bottlenecks.
- Integration of RES into Energy Systems. The rising share of solar and wind power plants raises new requirements for energy systems. The variable nature of RES generation necessitates the development of backup capacity and storage systems for balancing—ranging from fast-reserve gas turbines to industrial batteries and pumped storage plants. The infrastructure of electric networks is also being modernized for transferring energy from remote RES locations to consumers. The accelerated development of these directions should help mitigate CO2 emissions: the IEA projects that even with rising electricity consumption, global emissions from the electricity sector could remain at mid-2020s levels if low-carbon capacities are introduced in a timely and sufficient manner.
Coal Sector: High Demand in Asia Amid Transition Away
Global coal consumption remains at historically high levels, despite efforts to decarbonize the economy. According to the IEA, in 2025, global coal demand increased by 0.5% to approximately 8.85 billion tonnes—a new record. Consumption is expected to remain close to this level in 2026, with a slight decline (effectively a "plateau"). The growth in coal burning is concentrated in developing economies in Asia, while Western countries are systematically reducing their use of this fuel. The coal sector is seeing the following trends:
- Asian Demand Supports Production. Countries in South and East Asia (China, India, Vietnam, etc.) continue to actively use coal for electricity generation and industry. For many developing economies, coal remains an accessible and vital resource, providing base-load generation. During peak consumption periods (for example, during extremely hot summers or harsh winters), coal-fired power plants help cover maximum loads when renewable sources and gas generation are struggling. Sustained demand in Asia supports high production volumes in major coal-producing countries, temporarily easing pressure on the industry.
- Transition Away from Coal in Developed Countries. Concurrently, developed economies are accelerating the transition away from coal generation. The EU, the US, the UK, and other countries are continuing to decommission older coal-fired power plants and imposing restrictions on launching new projects. Stated government goals include a complete exclusion of coal from power generation within the coming decades (in the EU and the UK, targeting the 2030s). International climate initiatives also intensify pressure: financial institutions are withdrawing funding for coal projects, and at UN negotiations, countries are committing to gradually shutting down coal capacities. These trends are, in the long run, restricting investments in the coal sector and complicating development plans for companies.
- Ambiguous Prospects for Business. For coal mining companies, the current situation is double-edged. On one hand, high demand (primarily in Asia) is providing record revenues and short-term investment opportunities for modernization. On the other hand, strategic prospects are worsening: new projects carry the risk that in 10-15 years, coal may lose a substantial share of the market. The stringent environmental agenda increases uncertainty—companies are forced to incorporate gradual diversification into their strategies. Many industry players are reinvesting current super-profits in related sectors (metallurgical raw materials, chemical production, RES) to prepare for the declining role of coal in the future energy balance.
Forecast and Prospects
Overall, the global fuel and energy complex enters 2026 with contradictory signals. The oil market is balancing between an expected supply surplus and ongoing geopolitical threats, which is likely to keep prices within a relatively narrow range without sharp jumps (provided there are no force majeure circumstances). The gas sector is facing a test in replenishing stocks in Europe after winter: the historically low level of UGS means that the main intrigue of the year is whether importers can attract sufficient volumes of LNG and gas from alternative sources to restore stocks by autumn.
Energy sector companies (oil and gas and electric power) and investors continue to adapt to the new reality. Some oil and gas corporations are increasing production and modernizing refineries, capitalizing on the current demand for traditional energy resources, while others are more actively investing in renewable energy, networks, and energy storage, focusing on long-term decarbonization trends. The volume of investments in "green" energy is already comparable with investments in the fossil sector; however, satisfying the growing global demand can still only be achieved by maintaining a significant share of oil and gas. For investors and energy market participants, the main challenge is to balance strategies to leverage the opportunities in the oil and gas market while not missing out on the benefits of the energy transition. In the coming months, the industry’s attention will be focused on OPEC+ decisions and regulatory actions, progress in increasing RES, and infrastructure construction, as well as macroeconomic factors (economic growth rates, inflation, and central bank policies) that influence energy demand dynamics. The global energy market remains dynamic and ambiguous, requiring companies and investors to be agile and have a long-term vision amidst ongoing changes.
