Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of December 10, 2025: Price Dynamics, Sanction Pressures, Commodity Market Trends, Fuel Production, Energy Policy, and Global Trends
The current developments in the fuel and energy sector (FES) as of December 10, 2025, draw the attention of investors and market participants with their ambiguity. The confrontation between Russia and the West continues to evolve under the weight of sanction pressures: there has been no direct easing of restrictions; on the contrary, G7 and EU countries are discussing new tightening measures against the Russian oil and gas sector in early 2026. Meanwhile, the global oil market maintains a fragile equilibrium; Brent crude prices hover around $60 per barrel, reflecting a balance between rising supply and weakening demand. The European gas market enters the winter season relatively confidently—gas storage facilities in the EU were over 75% full by early December, providing a buffer and keeping prices at a moderate level. The global energy transition continues to accelerate: record generation volumes from renewable energy sources (RES) are reported in many regions, yet countries remain reliant on traditional resources to ensure the reliability of their energy systems. In Russia, following a surge in prices this fall, authorities continue to implement measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Cautious Production Management Amid Surplus Risks
Global oil prices remain relatively stable under the influence of various fundamental factors. North Sea Brent trades around $62–64 per barrel, while U.S. WTI hovers between $58–60. Current prices are approximately 10% lower than levels a year ago, reflecting a gradual market correction following the price peaks of 2022–2023. Pricing dynamics are influenced by several key trends:
- OPEC+ Production Increases: The oil alliance has gradually increased market supply throughout 2025. In December, production quotas for key participants were raised by an additional 137,000 barrels per day (as in the previous two months), but for the first quarter of 2026, a pause in production increases has been decided to prevent surplus formation. From April to November, the total OPEC+ quota rose by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day, leading to an increase in global oil and petroleum product inventories.
- Slowing Demand Growth: Global oil consumption is growing at a more moderate pace. According to updated estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand growth in 2025 is expected to be around 0.7 million barrels per day (compared to over 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecasts have become more restrained, with the cartel anticipating demand growth of about 1.1-1.3 million barrels per day for 2025. Contributing factors include a slowdown in the global economy and the impact of high prices from previous years promoting energy conservation. An additional risk factor has been the weakening industrial growth in China, limiting the appetite of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Sanctions and Uncertainty: Sanction pressures create contradictory effects in the market. On the one hand, new Western restrictions—such as sanctions from the U.S. and the U.K. against major Russian oil companies—hamper production growth in Russia, maintaining the risk of deficits for certain grades of crude. On the other hand, Russian supplies continue to be redirected to Asia at discounted prices, softening the overall impact of sanctions on global supply. Moreover, certain investor optimism has been fueled by signals of progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and its major partners, improving sentiment in the oil market.
The collective influence of these factors ensures a market condition close to surplus: oil supply slightly exceeds demand, preventing prices from rallying further. Futures prices remain significantly below the peaks of previous years. Several analysts believe that if current trends persist, the average price of Brent may drop into the range of $50–55 per barrel in 2026.
Gas Market: Comfortable Stocks in Europe and Moderate Prices
On the gas market, attention continues to focus primarily on Europe. EU countries entered the winter period with historically high gas reserves: by early November, European storage facilities were almost 98% filled to total capacity, and by the first ten days of December, stock levels remained at a comfortable ~75%. This is significantly above the average levels of previous years, providing a reliable buffer in case of cold weather. The exchange prices for gas remain relatively low; January futures at the TTF hub are trading around €27–28/MWh (approximately $340 per thousand cubic meters), reflecting a balance of demand and supply. The ongoing influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG) enhances market stability: by the end of 2025, total LNG imports to Europe may reach a new record, compensating for the decline in pipeline gas supplies. A potential risk factor remains the prospect of cooling temperatures or increased competition for LNG from Asia; however, the current situation is favorable for consumers. Moderate gas prices help reduce costs for industry and energy sectors in Europe as winter begins.
International Politics: Unyielding Sanctions and New Measures Approaching
Despite individual diplomatic contacts, there has been no significant easing of sanction policies in the oil and gas sector. On the contrary, Western countries signal their readiness to tighten restrictions. In December, the G7 countries and the EU held discussions regarding a new sanctions package against Moscow. According to sources, implementing a complete ban on maritime transportation of Russian oil starting in 2026 is being discussed, which could replace the current price cap of $60 per barrel. The goal of such measures is to further diminish Russia's export revenues. U.S. authorities also imposed additional sanctions against Russian oil giants in late fall, complicating their access to technology and financing. As a result, uncertainty for the sector remains: on one hand, serious supply disruptions have yet to occur thanks to the restructuring of logistics chains, while on the other hand, the prospect of new restrictions prompts market participants to exercise caution.
A silver lining is the preservation of communication channels. Contacts continue between relevant agencies in Russia and several Asian countries, allowing for the redirection of energy flows and mitigating the impacts of sanctions. Additionally, there are signs of improvement in global trade relations: a de-escalation of tensions between major economies (e.g., the gradual resolution of trade disputes between the U.S. and China) supports investor confidence and demand for energy resources. In the coming months, market attention will be focused on the development of the sanction situation: the implementation of new restrictions or, conversely, a pause in sanction pressures will significantly influence sentiments and long-term strategies of energy companies.
Asia: Major Consumers Balancing Imports with Domestic Production
- India: Faced with ongoing sanctions, New Delhi is striving to secure its energy balance. A sudden rejection of imports of Russian oil and gas is unacceptable for the country, so Indian authorities continue to procure Russian energy resources, aiming for favorable terms. Russian companies are offering significant discounts to Indian refiners compared to Brent prices (estimated at about $4–6 per barrel of Urals), allowing India to increase its oil and petroleum product imports to meet domestic demand. Simultaneously, India is focusing on developing its resource base: under its national deep-water exploration program, the state company ONGC is conducting exploratory drilling in the Andaman Sea, and initial results are deemed promising. Success in discovering new reserves of oil and gas could reduce the country's dependence on external supplies in the long run.
- China: The largest economy in Asia continues to adhere to a multi-vector strategy. On one hand, China remains the leading buyer of Russian oil and gas, taking advantage of the situation to replenish its stocks at acceptable prices. In 2024, China imported about 213 million tons of oil and 246 billion cubic meters of natural gas (growth of 1.8% and 6.2% year-on-year respectively), and in 2025, import volumes remained at a high level with slight increases. On the other hand, Beijing is ramping up domestic production: from January to October 2025, China produced around 200 million tons of oil (+1.2% year-on-year) and 320 billion cubic meters of gas (+5.8% year-on-year). Although the share of domestic production is growing, the country remains dependent on imports for about 70% of its oil and 40% of its gas. To enhance energy security, China is investing in the development of fields, technologies for increasing oil recovery, and expanding storage infrastructure. Thus, India and China—key players in the Asian region—continue to play a dual role in FES markets, combining active imports of energy resources with measures to boost domestic production.
Energy Transition: Record RES Achievements and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to low-carbon energy reached new heights in 2025. Many countries recorded record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources—solar and wind power plants are hitting new generation maxima. By the year's end, the combined share of solar and wind generation in the European Union surpassed the production of electricity from coal and gas-fired power plants for the first time, continuing the trend of recent years of phasing out fossil fuels. In the United States, the share of renewable sources in total generation consistently exceeds 30%, and for the first time, generation from wind and solar surpassed production in coal plants over the year. China, a leader in RES scale, introduced dozens of new gigawatts of capacity—over 100 GW of solar panels and wind turbines were installed in 2025, again breaking national records. According to IEA estimates, total investments in the global energy sector exceeded $3 trillion for 2025, with more than half of this funding directed toward RES projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems.
At the same time, ensuring the stability of energy systems still requires the involvement of traditional types of generation. The increasing share of RES creates challenges for the energy sector: during times when solar or wind generation is down, reserve capacities are necessary. In many countries, during peak demand periods and adverse weather conditions, gas and even coal-fired power plants are brought back online. For example, some European countries temporarily increased generation at coal-fired power plants during windless weather last winter, despite the environmental costs. Governments and companies are rapidly developing energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped-storage hydroelectricity) and smart grids to enhance flexibility and reliability in energy supply. Experts predict that by the end of the decade, renewable sources may take the lead globally in terms of electricity production, but during the transition period, support for gas and other traditional stations will remain essential. Thus, the energy transition advances steadily, though the balance between "green" technologies and conventional resources remains critically important for industry stability.
Coal: Market Stabilization Amid Steady Demand
The global coal market in 2025 shows relative stability amid still high demand. Despite the accelerated development of renewable energy, coal consumption remains significant, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. China maintains coal combustion at nearly record levels—annual Chinese generation consumes over 4 billion tons of coal, and national production (about 4.4 billion tons per year) barely meets domestic needs. India, with substantial reserves, also actively uses coal: over 70% of the country's electricity is generated from coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption is increasing along with the economy. Other developing Asian countries (such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) are implementing projects for new coal stations to meet the rising demand for electricity.
Supply in the global coal market is adapting to high demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa—have increased production and export of thermal coal in recent years, which has helped keep prices within a moderate range following extreme spikes in 2022. In 2025, thermal coal prices fluctuate around $100–120 per ton, reflecting a balance of interests between consumers and producers. Buyers receive fuel at relatively acceptable prices, while producing companies benefit from stable sales and sufficient profits. Many countries announce long-term plans to reduce the share of coal for climate reasons, but in the next 5–10 years, coal will remain a crucial energy source for billions of people, particularly in Asia. Thus, the coal industry is experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand is consistently high, prices are moderate, and despite the climate agenda, coal continues to be a key pillar of the global energy landscape.
The Russian Fuel Market: Outcomes of Price Control Measures
In Russia's domestic fuel market, interim results of the emergency measures taken are being summarized toward the end of the year. In the fall of 2025, after wholesale gasoline prices surged to record highs, the government took several steps to normalize the situation:
- Export Restrictions on Fuel: The complete ban on the export of gasoline and diesel introduced in September was extended until early October and then gradually eased for major refineries. As the market balance improved, major oil refineries were allowed to resume some export supplies, while restrictions remained in force for independent traders and smaller plants.
- Resource Distribution Control: The cause of supply shortages has been unplanned shutdowns at several refineries (accidents and drone attacks disrupted operations at major plants, reducing fuel output). Authorities have intensified oversight of the distribution of petroleum products in the domestic market—producers are mandated first to meet the needs of domestic consumers, and practices of speculative reselling of fuel among wholesalers that drove up prices have been curtailed. Together with the Ministry of Energy, the Federal Antimonopoly Service, and the St. Petersburg Exchange, plans are underway to transition to long-term direct contracts between refineries and sales companies to eliminate intermediaries from the supply chain.
- Subsidies and Price Dampers: The state continued to provide financial support to the sector. The mechanism of reverse excise tax on oil (the so-called "damper") and direct subsidies to refiners partially compensated for lost income from domestic fuel sales, encouraging higher volumes of petroleum products to be directed to the domestic market.
The complex of measures has helped avoid acute fuel shortages—gas stations across the country are adequately supplied with gasoline and diesel. However, fully containing price growth has proven challenging: according to Rosstat, by early December, retail prices for gasoline in Russia had risen by approximately 12% since the beginning of the year, while overall inflation stood at around 5%. Thus, fuel has become more expensive at double the rate of the overall consumer basket, indicating continuing pressure on the market. Authorities state that they will maintain control of the situation: if necessary, export restrictions may be reimposed, and support for the sector is planned to be extended. Already in December, a task force led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak is discussing additional steps—from adjusting the damper to replenishing fuel reserves—to prevent a recurrence of price spikes. The government aims to ensure stable domestic fuel supplies and keep consumer prices within acceptable limits, minimizing risks for the economy and social sphere.
