Global Oil, Gas, and Energy News for Saturday, January 10, 2026. Oil, gas, electricity, renewables, coal, petroleum products, and refineries: key events in the global fuel and energy complex for investors and market participants.
As we approach 2026, the global energy resource market is showcasing equilibrium: an oversupply is restraining price growth for oil and gas, while moderate demand prevents sharp spikes. Brent prices have stabilized around $60–63 per barrel, while U.S. WTI is hovering around $55–58 (data as of early January). The gas market is experiencing a relatively calm period: thanks to record liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries and a mild winter in Europe and Asia, gas prices are being maintained at low levels (approximately €28–30/MWh in Europe, with China at five-year lows). Investors are also noticing an accelerated transition to green energy — renewable sources are setting production records for electricity, though traditional coal and gas plants continue to ensure the energy system's balance.
Oil Market: Oversupply Keeps Prices in Check
The oil market remains under pressure from fundamental factors: global supply remains high, and demand growth has slowed. In 2025, oil prices dropped nearly one-fifth from the previous year's levels (the most notable annual decline since 2020), reflecting increased production and weak global economic growth. The OPEC+ alliance suspended its planned production increase for early 2026 in December 2025 due to "market oversaturation." At the January meeting, leading exporters agreed to maintain the production freeze through Q4 to prevent further price declines. Quotas for January to March remained unchanged: Russia — 9.574 million barrels/day, Saudi Arabia — 10.103 million barrels/day, Iraq — 4.273 million barrels/day, etc. (not including compensation obligations).
- Factors pressuring oil: maintenance of the OPEC+ production freeze in Q1; excess oil stocks in the market (inventory levels remain high).
- U.S. policy: the U.S. government has begun executing sales of Venezuelan oil and petroleum products (up to 30–50 million barrels) from strategic reserves. This activity could increase supply, although prices have not yet reacted sharply.
- Oil prices: Brent futures have risen to ~$62–63 per barrel (a minimum hit on December 8), partly due to geopolitical risks. However, analysts predict that under current trends, prices will remain moderate, and Brent may even fall to $50–55 by mid-year.
- Russian Urals oil is trading at a record high discount to Brent — around $20–25 (double the annual figure). This reflects sanctions pressure and an oversupply in the markets. Given the strengthening ruble to ~80 per dollar, the ruble price of Urals has fallen to about 3000 rubles/barrel (half the level from a year ago).
Gas Market: Record Influx of LNG and Comfortable Supplies
The gas market is benefiting from favorable pricing: reserves in European underground storage facilities exceed two-thirds of their maximum capacity, providing resilience for mid-winter. February TTF futures are holding at 28–30 €/MWh, which is considerably lower than the spring peaks of 2022. In 2025, LNG deliveries to Europe reached a record 100 million tons, compensating for the decrease in pipeline volumes from Russia. Increased competition in the LNG market is expected in 2026: the U.S. is ramping up gas exports, directing up to 70% of supplies to Europe, with new LNG infrastructure coming online.
- Supply-demand balance: an oversupply of LNG and a mild winter are driving down prices. Analysts predict that average annual gas prices in Europe could fall by 15–20% (to approximately $350–370 per 1000 m³), and in Asia — by 15% (to ~$11 per million BTU) due to the formation of supply surplus and lack of significant demand growth.
- U.S. LNG exports: in 2025, U.S. LNG deliveries hit record levels — more than 124 billion m³ from January to October (up 23% compared to 2024). The bulk is heading to Europe (about 70% of exports), intensifying regional market competition.
- Prices in Asia: cold weather is diminishing, and wholesale LNG prices in China have dropped to five-year lows due to the mild winter and ample stocks. Currently, storage facilities are filled over 70%, forcing sellers to offload excess fuel at lower prices.
Geopolitics: Venezuela, Sanctions, and Internal Consolidation within OPEC+
Political events are having a significant impact on the energy sector. Firstly, Venezuela is experiencing an unprecedented crisis: on January 3, the U.S. detained President Maduro and effectively took control of much of the country's oil sector. Trump announced plans to enlist American oil companies to update Venezuela's infrastructure and increase oil production. Despite holding the world's largest oil reserves, Venezuela's current production volumes are low, and recovery will take years. Market reactions have been calm: investors understand that transitioning to increased supply will take time.
Secondly, contradictions within OPEC+ have emerged: Saudi Arabia and the UAE found themselves in conflict (due to the situation in Yemen), marking the most significant rift within the alliance in years. However, at the January meeting, the "OPEC+ eight" (Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Algeria, Oman, and Kuwait) demonstrated unity — all unanimously confirmed the production freeze and rejected proposals to increase quotas for February. This reaffirms key players' desire to avoid sharp supply spikes and maintain market stability.
New sanctions actions from the West increase uncertainty. At the end of 2025, the U.S. administration expanded sectoral sanctions on major Russian oil companies "Rosneft" and "Lukoil," further restricting exports of raw materials and technologies. The European Union, in turn, is discussing tightening environmental regulations (e.g., establishing a carbon customs mechanism), indirectly impacting the global fuel sector. Overall, geopolitical risks are exacerbating competition for markets and accelerating the diversification of supply chains.
Asia: India and China – Balancing Imports and Increasing Production
- India: traditionally one of the largest buyers of cheap oil. Russian oil, discounted (~$5 below Brent), continues to flow into the Indian market, helping to keep domestic fuel prices in check. However, under U.S. pressure (import tariffs), the largest oil importer, Reliance Industries, announced a halt to Russian supplies in January. This is expected to reduce Russian oil imports into India below 1 million barrels/day, marking the lowest figure in recent years. At the same time, India is attempting to increase its own production and refining capacity while actively developing renewables (solar and wind), aiming to diversify its energy balance and reduce import dependence.
- China: in 2025, China introduced record volumes of oil and gas into the domestic market, comparable to the previous year. Beijing actively sourced resources from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela at favorable prices to replenish strategic reserves. Domestic oil and gas production has only slightly increased (around 1–2%), with China still covering about 70% of its demand through imports. Beijing is investing heavily in exploring new fields and developing technologies while rapidly expanding renewable energy production (solar panels, wind turbines, batteries). Despite efforts to boost domestic production, China will remain one of the largest global importers of energy carriers in the coming years.
Energy Transition and Renewables: Growth Records and the Role of Traditional Sources
- New records in renewables: the global transition to clean energy is gaining momentum. In 2025, many countries set historical highs for solar and wind generation. In Europe, total output from solar and wind power for the first time exceeded generation from coal-fired power plants. This reflects the accelerated shift away from coal in favor of "green" technologies.
- Investments in green energy: major global energy companies (such as Shell, BP, Total, and even "Rosneft" and "Novatek") have announced large-scale "green field" projects — from offshore wind farms to large solar farms and storage systems. The drive to meet climate goals and reduce carbon footprints is fueling billions in investments in clean energy.
- Maintaining backup capacity: as the share of renewables increases, the load on the energy system rises, as solar and wind plants produce intermittent energy. Therefore, countries are maintaining a reserve of traditional sources: gas, coal, and nuclear power plants continue to provide baseload power and balance the grid during peak consumption periods.
- Climate goals: many governments are tightening environmental policies and decarbonization plans. Governments are introducing quotas, carbon taxes, and promoting green technologies (hydrogen, electric transport, smart grids). This is shaping a long-term trend towards gradually reducing the share of fossil fuels in the global energy balance.
Market for Petroleum Products and the Domestic Fuel Market of Russia
- Export limitations: the Russian government extended the ban on exporting gasoline, diesel, marine fuels, and other petroleum products until the end of February 2026. This is done to maintain sufficient domestic supply following the deficit of 2025. Restrictions are only lifted for refiners (refineries), which can export products when capacity is available.
- Market assurance: authorities cite several risks: attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian refineries and oil depots, as well as a sharp rise in wholesale fuel prices in the summer of 2025. The situation is now calmer; some refineries have already restored normal operation levels, and the seasonal decline in consumption (winter) reduces pressure on the market.
- Fuel imports from the CIS: Belarus has increased fuel supplies to Russia, allowing for the replenishment of domestic stocks and reserves. In case of oversupply, the Ministry of Energy is ready to cut imports from Belarus to avoid overproduction. Therefore, the risk of a total shortage in the domestic market is decreasing.
- Gasoline prices in Russia: thanks to falling wholesale prices and the resumption of production, experts expect price stability at gas stations in January 2026. After the autumn spikes, Russian authorities lifted some regulatory measures (excise tax exemptions), and moderate declines in wholesale prices should prevent sharp retail price rises. Overall, the beginning of 2026 is traditionally considered calm for the fuel market.
