Global News from the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector for Sunday, January 11, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Sanctions, Global Energy Markets and Key Trends for Investors and Energy Companies
Current events in the fuel and energy complex as of January 11, 2026, are capturing the attention of investors and market participants due to their scale and contradictory trends. Geopolitical tensions are reaching new heights, with the United States intensifying sanctions in the energy sector, threatening to redistribute global oil and gas flows. At the same time, global oil and gas markets are demonstrating relative resilience. Oil prices, following a decline in 2025, have stabilized at moderate levels, reflecting a balance between oversupply and restrained demand. The European gas market is navigating the peak of winter without disturbances—record gas stocks and warm weather are keeping prices low, providing comfort to consumers. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: renewable energy sources are setting new generation records, although for the reliability of energy systems, countries continue to rely on traditional hydrocarbons. In Russia, following last autumn's spike in fuel prices, authorities are continuing to implement measures to stabilize the domestic oil product market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors for this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply Keeps Prices at Moderate Levels
Global oil prices are maintaining relative stability at low levels, influenced by fundamental supply and demand factors. The North Sea Brent blend is trading around $60–62 per barrel, while American WTI is in the range of $55–59. Current quotes are approximately 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting the continued market correction in 2025 following the peaks of the energy crisis in 2022–2023. Prices are under pressure from concerns over overproduction: OPEC+ countries increased output by almost 3 million barrels per day last year, reclaiming market share, while global demand growth has slowed amid moderate economic growth and increased energy efficiency.
Market participants note that the alliance of leading oil exporters is currently focusing on stability. At the beginning of January, eight key OPEC+ countries held a brief meeting and unanimously decided to maintain current production limits at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026. This step was driven by seasonally low winter demand in the Northern Hemisphere and a desire to prevent a new market oversupply. Approval of the status quo in production was reached despite political tensions within the cartel—priority remained to avoid price drops. As a result of these preemptive measures, oil prices are being held within a narrow price corridor, and volatility is decreasing. Nevertheless, investors and oil companies are closely monitoring geopolitical events that could affect oil supply, whether sanctions or regional conflicts, although so far, fundamental factors outweigh.
Gas Market: Europe Confidently Navigates Winter, Prices Remain Low
The gas market is focusing on Europe, which enters the new year with a reliable safety margin. By the beginning of winter, EU countries had stored record volumes of gas in their underground storage facilities—storage was nearly 100% full by the end of 2025. Even now, at the peak of the heating season, stocks remain significantly above average levels from previous years, ensuring supply security. An additional stability factor is the mild weather in Europe in December and early January, which reduced fuel withdrawals from storage. Along with increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, this keeps natural gas prices at moderate levels.
The benchmark TTF index at the beginning of January fluctuates around €25–30 per MWh, which is considerably lower than peak values during the energy crisis of two years ago. For European industry and consumers, such price levels have been a significant relief: many energy-intensive enterprises have resumed production, and heating bills for households have decreased compared to last winter. The market is ready for potential weather surprises—short-term cold snaps could temporarily increase demand and price, but systemic risks of fuel shortages are currently absent. Additionally, on a global level, gas consumption is expected to rise in 2026 (according to IEA estimates, global gas consumption could reach a new record), primarily driven by demand from Asia. However, at present, the supply of LNG and pipeline gas is sufficient to meet demand, and the European strategy to diversify suppliers and conserve energy resources is proving effective.
International Politics: U.S. Sanctions Pressure and the Crisis in Venezuela
Geopolitical factors continue to significantly influence sentiments in energy markets. At the beginning of 2026, the United States intensified sanctions related to Russian energy exports. President Donald Trump approved the advancement of new legislation aimed at punishing countries that continue to purchase Russian oil and gas. This bipartisan bill proposes extraordinarily high tariffs—up to 500%—on imports to the U.S. from countries that “consciously trade” in energy resources with Russia. The goal is to deprive Moscow of revenues that Washington believes fuel the military conflict in Ukraine. Major buyers of Russian oil, such as China and India, as well as several other Asian, African, and Latin American countries, are particularly affected. These measures have already complicated U.S. relations with key emerging economies: Beijing openly protests against external interference in its trade, stating that normal economic ties between China and Russia are legitimate and should not be politicized. India, for its part, is trying to maneuver—it has indeed reduced the share of Russian oil in its purchases and is negotiating with Washington to ease previously imposed American tariffs on Indian goods.
Another high-profile event is the sudden turn in Venezuela, which could influence the global oil market. In the first days of January, it became known that the U.S. conducted a military operation resulting in the detention of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by American troops. President Trump stated that Washington is taking responsibility to assist in transitional governance in the country until a new government can be formed. This unprecedented act provoked a sharp reaction on the international stage: several countries, including China, condemned the violation of sovereignty and principles of international law. However, many investors in the oil and gas sector are now wondering whether a regime change in Caracas could lead to the gradual return of Venezuelan oil to the global market. Venezuela possesses the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but its production has plummeted in recent years due to sanctions and a management crisis. Experts agree that even with political changes, an immediate spike in exports is unlikely: the country's oil sector requires massive investments and modernization. Nevertheless, the potential lifting of sanctions against Venezuela in the future could add additional heavy oil volumes to the market, which would be a new factor in the balance of power within OPEC+. Thus, political uncertainty—ranging from sanction wars to leadership changes in oil-producing countries—remains a backdrop that participants in the energy sector cannot ignore, but for now, its influence is offset by oversupply and coordinated actions among producers.
Asia: Balancing Imports and Domestic Production
Asian countries, key drivers of energy demand, are taking active steps to strengthen their energy security and meet the growing needs of their economies. The focus is on the actions of India and China, whose choices notably influence the global market:
- India: New Delhi seeks to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbon imports amid external pressures. Following the onset of the Ukrainian crisis, India increased purchases of cheap Russian oil, but in 2025, under threat of Western trade restrictions, it has somewhat reduced the share of Russia in its oil imports. At the same time, the country is betting on developing domestic resources: in August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a National Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration Program. The goal is to open new offshore fields and increase output to satisfy the rapidly growing domestic demand, which is not covered by current production. Additionally, India is swiftly expanding its renewable energy capacity (solar and wind power plants) and liquefied gas infrastructure, aiming to diversify its energy balance. However, oil and gas remain the foundations of its energy supply, essential for industry and transport, so India is forced to finely balance between the benefits of importing cheap fuel and the risks of sanctions.
- China: The world’s second-largest economy is continuing its efforts to strengthen energy self-sufficiency, combining increases in traditional resource production with unprecedented investments in clean energy. In 2025, China raised domestic coal and oil production to record levels to cover demand and reduce import dependency. At the same time, the share of coal in power generation in the country dropped to a multi-year low (~55%), as billions of dollars are invested in solar, wind, and hydroelectric projects. Analysts report that in the first half of 2025, China commissioned more renewable energy capacity than the rest of the world combined, allowing even a reduction in absolute fossil fuel consumption. However, in absolute terms, China's appetite for oil and gas remains enormous: the import of petroleum products, including Russian crude, continues to play a significant role in meeting needs, especially in the transport and chemical sectors. Beijing is also actively securing long-term contracts for LNG supplies and developing nuclear energy. It is expected that in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), China will set even more ambitious goals for increasing the share of non-carbon energy, while also ensuring back-up provision of traditional capacities—the authorities do not intend to allow energy shortages, recalling the rolling blackouts of the past decade. Thus, China is moving along two trajectories: implementing the clean technologies of the future while also reinforcing them with a reliable foundation of coal, oil, and gas in the present.
Energy Transition: Records in Green Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy reached new heights in 2025, confirming its irreversibility. In many countries, record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources have been recorded. According to international analytical centers, global production from wind and solar sources surpassed the output of all coal-fired power plants combined for the first time. This historic milestone was achieved thanks to a dramatic increase in new capacity: in the first half of 2025, global generation from solar power plants rose nearly 30% compared to the same period a year earlier, and wind energy increased by 7%. This was sufficient to cover the main increase in global electricity demand and allowed for a reduction in fossil fuel usage in several regions.
However, the energy transition is accompanied by challenges relating to supply reliability. When demand growth outpaces the commissioning of "green" capacity or when weather patterns fail (calm, drought, abnormal cold), systems are forced to compensate for the gap through traditional generation. In 2025, the U.S., facing an economic revival, increased output at coal power plants as renewable sources did not suffice to cover all consumption growth. In Europe, due to weak wind and hydro resources over the summer and autumn, gas and coal burning increased partially to meet needs. These examples underscore that coal, gas, and nuclear power plants continue to play the role of a safety net, compensating for the variability of sunlight and wind. Energy companies around the world are actively investing in energy storage systems, smart grids, and other technologies to smooth out these fluctuations. But in the near future, the global energy balance will remain hybrid: rapid growth in renewable energy is accompanying the sustained significant role of oil, gas, coal, and nuclear power, which provide system stability.
Coal: Strong Demand Persists Despite Climate Agenda
The coal market illustrates how inertial global energy consumption can be. Despite global efforts for decarbonization, coal use worldwide remains at record high levels. Preliminary data indicate that global coal demand grew by another 0.5% in 2025, reaching approximately 8.85 billion tons—a historical maximum. The primary increase came from Asian economies. In China, which consumes more than half of the world’s coal, electricity generation from coal has decreased relatively (thanks to record renewable energy installations), but remains colossal in absolute terms. Moreover, Beijing, concerned about energy supply risks, approved the construction of new coal-fired power plants in 2025, aiming to prevent interruptions. India and Southeast Asia also continue to burn coal actively to meet rising energy demand, as alternatives have not always kept pace with economic growth.
Prices for thermal coal stabilized in 2025 after sharp fluctuations in previous years. In benchmark Asian markets (such as Australian Newcastle coal), prices remained at levels significantly below the peak of 2022, yet still above pre-crisis levels. This encourages mining companies to maintain high production levels. International experts predict that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of the decade before declining as climate policies intensify and new renewable capacities come online. However, in the short term, coal remains a crucial part of the energy balance for many nations. It accounts for base load generation and heating in industry, meaning that until effective substitutes are introduced, the demand for coal will remain resilient. Thus, the conflict between environmental goals and economic realities continues to define the fate of the coal sector: the downward trend is evident, but the “swan song” of coal has not yet been sung.
Russian Oil Products Market: Fuel Price Stabilization through Government Efforts
Recently, there has been relative stabilization in Russia's domestic fuel segment, achieved through unprecedented government measures. Back in August–September 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel on Russian exchanges hit records, surpassing even the crisis levels of 2023. The reasons included a combination of high seasonal demand (summer transportation and the harvesting campaign) and several supply constraints—specifically, unscheduled repairs and accidents at several oil refineries, which reduced output. To avoid shortages and protect consumers from price shocks, authorities quickly intervened in market mechanisms and implemented an emergency plan to normalize the situation:
- Export Ban: In mid-August, the government imposed a complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline and diesel, applying it to all producers—from independent refineries to major oil companies. This measure, extended through the end of September, returned hundreds of thousands of tons of fuel that were previously exported back to the domestic market.
- Partial Resumption of Supplies: Starting in October 2025, as the domestic market became saturated, restrictions began to be eased gradually. Major refineries were permitted to resume some export shipments under stringent government oversight, while export barriers for smaller traders and intermediaries largely remained intact. Thus, export channels were opened cautiously to prevent another price spike domestically.
- Fuel Distribution Control: Enhanced monitoring of fuel movement within the country was instituted as one of the measures. Producers were mandated to prioritize the fulfillment of domestic consumers’ requests and were prohibited from engaging in mutual trading of fuel on exchanges between companies (an earlier practice that had inflated prices). The government and relevant agencies (Ministry of Energy, FAS) developed mechanisms for direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks, bypassing exchange intermediaries, to ensure fuel reached service stations at fair prices.
- Market Subsidization: Financial tools have also been employed to help contain prices. The government increased the volume of budget subsidies for oil refining enterprises and expanded the application of a damping mechanism (reverse excise tax) that compensates companies for lost revenue when selling fuel in the domestic market instead of exporting it. These payments encourage oil companies to direct sufficient volumes of gasoline and diesel to service stations within the country without fear of losses.
The complex of measures taken has already brought results by the beginning of 2026. Wholesale fuel prices have come down from peak levels, while retail prices at gas stations have risen only moderately (by about 5–6% for all of 2025, which is close to the inflation rate). A physical shortage of gasoline and diesel in the domestic market has been prevented—service stations are supplied with fuel, including in rural areas during the autumn work. The Russian government assures that it will maintain strict control over the situation: at the first sign of a new imbalance, fresh restrictions or interventions from state reserves of fuel may be swiftly introduced. For participants in the energy sector, this policy means predictability of domestic prices, although exporters of petroleum products must contend with partial restrictions. Overall, the stabilization of the domestic fuel market reinforces confidence that even in the face of external challenges—sanctions and volatility of global prices—domestic prices for gasoline and diesel will be kept within acceptable limits, protecting the interests of consumers and the economy.
