News on Oil and Gas and Energy as of July 26, 2026: Brent Retreats to $97 After Breaking $100, TTF Gas Exceeds €63/MWh, Suspension of CPC, Export Ban on Gasoline in Russia Until Year-End, Newcastle Coal, Electricity, and Renewables. An Overview for Investors and Energy Market Participants
The global fuel and energy complex concludes the third decade of July in a state of heightened volatility. Brent oil prices, which surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time in nearly two months on Thursday, pulled back to $97 by Friday, yet the commodity sector still showed a gain of over 10% for the week. European gas prices at the TTF hub settled above €63/MWh — the highest since January 2023. Against this backdrop, the main corporate-regulatory news over the weekend was the Russian authorities' decision to extend the total ban on gasoline exports until the end of 2026. Below is a comprehensive review of the key events in the oil, gas, coal, and electricity sectors for investors and market participants in the energy sector.
Key Updates by Sunday Morning, July 26, 2026
- Oil: Brent reached a two-month peak around $102 on Thursday, closing above $100, then corrected by about 4% to $97 per barrel on Friday. WTI gave back about half of its six percent rise, trading around $88–89.
- Trends: Over the past month, Brent has gained approximately 30%, and more than 40% year-over-year. This week’s results show an increase of 10–12%.
- Gas: TTF futures exceeded €63/MWh — a record since January 2023; a more than 45% rise since early July and nearly double year-over-year.
- Logistics: Shipments from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in Novorossiysk have been halted, and Kazakhstan has reduced its production.
- Russia: The gasoline export ban has been extended until the end of the year; restrictions on diesel will be lifted gradually as the market recovers.
- Coal: Newcastle coal trades around $130 per ton amid subdued demand from India.
- Electricity: The contract between OpenAI and Georgia Power for 3.2 GW cements data centers as a new driver of electricity demand.
Oil Market: Risk Premium Taken But Not Retained
The oil market has been trading on military reports rather than supply and demand dynamics for the fifth consecutive week. The breach of $100 for Brent happened after Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea — an event that expanded the risk zone beyond the Strait of Hormuz and called into question alternative routes for Saudi exports. Friday’s correction is mainly due to practical reasons: oil continues to physically pass through Middle Eastern routes, with some tankers operating with disabled transponders, while technical indicators suggested that the market was overbought, necessitating a pause after the fastest monthly rally since 2022.
Supporting Factors for Prices
- Restricted navigability in the Strait of Hormuz, which traditionally accounts for about one-fifth of maritime oil trade.
- Threats to Red Sea ports: Riyadh warned on Saturday about potential dangers around Yanbu — a terminal capable of loading millions of barrels per day.
- Suspension of Kazakh exports through CPC, removing over 1% of global supply from the market.
- Increased freight and insurance rates impacting the purchasing prices for refineries.
- Extended shipping routes: Asian buyers are exploring deliveries of Saudi oil through the Suez Canal and around Africa.
Factors Restraining Prices
- The U.S.-Iran negotiation track is still formally intact: both sides confirm continued contact with the mediation of Oman and Pakistan.
- China's interest in de-escalation: disruptions in the Persian Gulf impact the world's largest oil importer.
- Available capacity within OPEC+ and the ongoing restoration of quotas.
Geopolitics: Dispute Over Passage Rules Through Hormuz
The key storyline of the weekend was legal rather than military. Tehran claimed that Washington is unilaterally trying to open a new transit corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, bypassing Iranian procedures, which Iran sees as a violation of the June memorandum of understanding. The United States maintains that Iran does not control the strait while military sources confirm that navigation is supported by escorting forces. Simultaneously, the U.S. side conducted its thirteenth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian infrastructure and threatened a "harsh military response" to new attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. For the market, this indicates that the geopolitical risk premium in oil and gas prices will persist until a functioning transit mechanism is in place, rather than awaiting a formal ceasefire.
OPEC+: Meeting on August 2 as the Major Scheduled Trigger
The alliance continues its phased production recovery: on July 5, seven countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — agreed to an increase of 188,000 barrels per day for August. The next meeting is scheduled for August 2 and will occur in a fundamentally different pricing reality than the previous one. OPEC+'s main challenge today is not quotas but the fact that a significant portion of reserve capacity is physically located in the Persian Gulf and dependent on Hormuz as well. The UAE's exit from the alliance as of May 1, 2026, further narrowed the managed pool of supply, while the developing methodology for assessing maximum capacities will serve as the basis for the 2027 quotas — presenting another source of internal disagreements.
Gas Market: TTF at Highs, Winter Risk for Europe Grows
European gas has emerged as the second epicenter of the crisis. The TTF's increase of more than 45% since early July has been triggered by a combination of structural factors: reduced Qatari LNG supplies following damage to facilities in Ras Laffan, the redirection of Atlantic cargoes to premium Asia, an abnormal heatwave in Europe raising electricity demand for air conditioning, and rising freight costs. The largest gas supplier to the region warned that the EU is unlikely to reach its target of 80% storage fill by the beginning of the heating season. The lag in injection rates compared to the five-year average makes the winter of 2026–2027 a significant risk for European industries and energy, and the window for accelerating injections is narrowing, as seasonal demand begins to rise as early as late September.
CPC and Kazakhstan: Logistics as an Export Bottleneck
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has halted loading at its marine terminal near Novorossiysk following a series of drone attacks on tankers. Since July 21, Kazakhstan has ceased pumping crude into the system, with shipowners refusing to approach mooring facilities, and some tankers are queued up. The Ministry of Energy of the Republic confirmed a "controlled adjustment" of daily production to prevent tank farm overflow. CPC accounts for over 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports and connects the Tengiz and Kashagan fields, developed by Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell, to the Black Sea. For European refineries reliant on the light low-sulfur grade CPC Blend, this means an urgent search for replacement batches in an already tight market.
Russia: Gasoline Export Ban Extended Until End of 2026
The main decision of the outgoing week for the Russian fuel market was announced on July 25: the total ban on gasoline exports has been extended until the end of this year and applies to both producers and non-producers. Restrictions on diesel fuel are planned to be lifted gradually as the market recovers. The regime that was in effect until July 31, thus, transforms from a seasonal measure to a six-month one.
The context of this decision is the most challenging summer for the industry in recent years:
- Crude oil processing volumes in June fell to approximately 4.1 million barrels per day — a recent low — due to refinery damages;
- Attacks on plants continue: facilities in Ulyanovsk region were affected in late July, while earlier attacks occurred in Omsk and Saratov;
- The regulatory requirement for mandatory exchange sales of Euro-5 gasoline has been reduced from 15% to 10% for the period until September 30;
- The import duty has been waived, and there is an increase in the import of petroleum products;
- Marine shipments of petroleum products in June set a historic low.
Relevant authorities report a gradual improvement in fuel supply across certain regions and a transition to a "targeted" management mode for addressing shortages. Priorities remain unchanged: harvest campaign, northern delivery, supply to Siberian regions. For oil companies, the extension of the embargo implies a predictable but prolonged compression of export margins and the necessity to maintain high domestic distribution loads until the end of the year.
Coal: A Safe Haven with Limited Upside
The coal market remains a beneficiary of LNG deficits, albeit without frenzy. Australian energy coal Newcastle 6000 kcal is trading around $130 per ton — close to the lows since early March, with restrained purchases from India, which has increased its own production and stockpiles, compensating for rising demand in Northeast Asia. Japan remains a leader in coal generation growth amidst shrinking gas usage, while South Korea has sharply increased its imports. Industry estimates for additional demand in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026 stand at around 70 million tons, potentially escalating to 90 million tons. Notably, major mining companies do not sanction new projects: the market perceives fluctuations as cyclical, rather than structural.
Electricity and Renewables: Demand is Outpacing Supply Capacity
The energy shock has not only stalled but accelerated the energy transition. Global electricity demand is projected to rise by 3.6% in 2026 and by another 3.8% in 2027, with renewable generation expected to surpass coal generation for the first time in history; the share of renewables in global output is moving from 33% to 37%. Key drivers remain unchanged: industry, electric transport, air conditioning, and data centers.
The latter factor has become a tangible reality. The recently announced 25-year contract between OpenAI and Georgia Power provides for the supply of up to 3.2 GW for a data center in Georgia, with capacity coming online between 2028 and 2032, representing an investment volume of at least $20 billion and an option for managed load reduction down to 1 GW. This stands as one of the largest single capacity commitments in the history of U.S. technology infrastructure, illustrating why electricity is becoming a standalone investment class alongside oil and gas.
Implications for Investors and Energy Market Participants
- Hedging is Essential. Movements of 4-7% per session make unhedged positions in oil, gas, and petroleum products a source of unacceptable risk.
- Refining margins are under pressure from both sides. Expensive raw materials amidst administrative export limitations and retail prices compress refinery crack spreads.
- Logistics is more important than geology. The Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and Novorossiysk have shown that the price of a barrel is determined by the navigability of choke points.
- Premium for Predictability. Coal, nuclear, and assets with long contractual horizons are being upwardly reassessed.
- Winter risk in Europe remains unmitigated. The lag in filling underground storage creates the potential for a new spike in TTF in the fourth quarter.
The calendar for the upcoming week sets four focal points: the OPEC+ meeting on August 2, European storage filling statistics, the progress of negotiations on shipping arrangements in Hormuz, and the block of quarterly reporting by major oil and gas companies. Any of these events can move quotes by $5–10 per barrel within a single session. The baseline scenario for oil, gas, and energy over the coming months indicates that heightened volatility will persist at least until the end of the third quarter of 2026.
