Current News in the Oil and Gas and Energy Sector for Friday, November 14, 2025: Analyzing Oil Surplus, Sanctions Against Russia, European Energy Risks, and New Projects in Nuclear and Renewable Energy
Global Oil Market: Supply Surplus Weighing on Prices
Global oil prices remain under pressure due to signs of oversupply and weakening demand. After a sharp decline the previous day, prices stabilized on Thursday: Brent is holding around $63 per barrel, and WTI is around $59. Investors are weighing the prospects of overproduction as OPEC recently revised its forecast, expecting global oil supply to slightly exceed demand by 2026. Similarly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for non-OPEC+ production growth, signaling a potential market surplus next year. Against this backdrop, oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in recent months.
Statistical data confirm this trend: commercial oil inventories are rising in key regions. In the U.S., crude oil stocks increased by approximately 1.3 million barrels for the week ending November 7, with a similar picture emerging in storage facilities across Europe and Asia. Analysts from Vortexa and Kpler estimate that a record volume of oil—around 1 billion barrels—is currently stored in tankers worldwide. A substantial portion of this floating inventory pertains to hard-to-sell crude from sanctioned countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), which ports are refusing to accept. Additionally, the increased exports from some major producers (e.g., Saudi Arabia) are contributing to a temporary market overload. However, experts note a "floor" for prices around $60 per barrel in the short term, as supply disruption risks, particularly the anticipated tightening of U.S. sanctions against Russian exports, provide market support.
Russian Oil Under Sanctions: LUKOIL Seeks Exit, Asia Adjusts Imports
New sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector are forcing companies and buyers to adapt. In October, the U.S. included the oil companies LUKOIL and Rosneft on its sanctions list, requiring counterparties to conclude all transactions with them by November 21. According to sources, LUKOIL has approached the U.S. Treasury Department to request an extension, as it requires more time to fulfill current contracts and sell overseas assets. Previously, the company had urgently sought to sell its international exploration, refining, and trading network—reports indicated a deal with Swiss trader Gunvor; however, in early November, the U.S. Treasury expressed objections, causing the transaction to fall through. Consequently, LUKOIL’s overseas operations are left in limbo: the company has had to declare force majeure on its largest overseas asset in the Iraqi West Qurna-2 field. Now, LUKOIL is urgently searching for new buyers for its assets and hopes to receive an extension from U.S. regulators to exit projects smoothly.
Importers of Russian crude in Asia are also restructuring their supply chains. In India, the largest state-owned oil refining company, Indian Oil, has announced a tender for oil supplies early in 2024, including Russian ESPO (VSTO) and Sokol crude in the list of potential grades. A condition of the tender is that suppliers and loading ports must not be under U.S., EU, or UK sanctions. Thus, Indian refineries plan to continue purchasing Russian oil through alternative traders, circumventing direct cooperation with Rosneft and LUKOIL. Concurrently, another Indian refining company, Nayara Energy (partially owned by Rosneft), stated that it will maintain significant volumes of imports from Russia despite the sanctions pressure.
In China, on the other hand, purchases of Russian oil by major players are decreasing. Fearing secondary sanctions, several leading state-owned refineries (including Sinopec and PetroChina) and independent "teapots" have cut crude oil imports from Russia by nearly half. This reduction was prompted by the sanctions imposed on the private Shandong Yulong plant, which faced restrictions from the UK and EU for dealing with Russian crude. According to Rystad Energy, the withdrawal of Chinese companies from Russian oil has affected about 400,000 barrels per day—down to 45% of previous supply volumes to China. This shift has already impacted the market: prices for the Far Eastern ESPO grade have dropped to several-month lows due to the decline in Chinese demand. As a result, Russian suppliers are forced to redirect flows to other buyers and engage in more complicated selling schemes through traders in third countries.
Refining Under Threat: Russian Refineries Endure Attacks
Alongside sanctions, the extraction and refining of fuel in Russia face physical threats. In 2025, Ukraine intensified drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure deep into its territory. Since the beginning of the year, at least 17 major refineries, oil depots, and pipelines have been targeted, presenting an unprecedented challenge for the industry. During the peak of the second wave of attacks (August-October), up to 20% of Russia’s total refining capacity was temporarily taken offline (including planned repairs). Nevertheless, Russian refiners have managed to prevent a catastrophic collapse: they quickly activated reserve capacities at surviving plants and rapidly restored damaged installations. Industry reports show that the total volume of oil refining in Russia from January to October decreased by only ~3% compared to the same period last year (to around 5.2 million barrels per day). The output of petroleum products fell by only 6%, although due to the attacks, Russian authorities had to temporarily limit gasoline and diesel fuel exports and bolster air defenses around strategic energy facilities.
Kyiv claims that the drone strikes significantly undermined Russian fuel logistics, cutting domestic gasoline supplies by dozens of percent. However, Moscow asserts that the market has stabilized: the Russian government has implemented manual price controls and normalized supply, and President Vladimir Putin publicly assured that the country "will not bend to external pressure." Experts note that in the short term, the Russian oil sector has demonstrated resilience to shocks, but further escalation of attacks or tightening sanctions could create new risks for exports and production.
European Gas and Electricity: Winter Risks Amid REI Shortage
In Europe, the peak of the heating season approaches with less comfortable gas reserves compared to the previous year. EU gas storage facilities are not fully stocked: by early November, the average storage level was around 85% of maximum capacity, whereas normally, they are close to 100% at this time of year. In Germany—the largest gas consumer in Europe—storage is filled at ~86%, partly due to the country burning more gas for electricity generation this autumn. The decline in renewable energy generation (wind and hydro) has forced German energy producers to increase the load on gas and coal-fired power plants. Over the first ten months of 2025, electricity production from gas in Germany rose by approximately 15% compared to the previous year (to 41.6 TWh), and the share of gas in generation increased to 19%—the highest in the last decade. Simultaneously, total generation from wind and hydropower across the region decreased by about 7% year-on-year, necessitating compensation from "dirtier" sources: alongside gas, Germany increased coal production by 4%.
The slowed pace of filling storage facilities means Europe is entering winter with a less robust "safety cushion." Experts, however, believe that even in the event of colder weather, the region is not expected to face acute gas shortages: reserves are close to historical averages, and record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports can replace a significant portion of lost Russian supplies. Nevertheless, the situation in the energy market remains fragile. Continued weak winds or disruptions in LNG supplies could lead to spikes in gas and electricity prices for consumers. EU authorities assure that the system is ready for winter—recently, the European Commission noted that gas volumes in storage and conservation measures allow Europe to confidently navigate the upcoming heating period without introducing consumption restrictions, although much will depend on weather conditions.
Sanctions and Energy: U.S. Grants Hungary an Exemption
On the geopolitical front, news has emerged about a temporary easing of sanctions regimes. The United States has agreed to grant an exception for its EU ally—Hungary—exempting it from certain energy sanctions against Russia. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that for the next 12 months, restrictions will not extend to the supply of Russian oil and gas to Hungary via pipelines. In effect, Budapest has received a one-year deferment, allowing it to continue importing energy resources from Russia despite the broader Western sanctions regime.
Additionally, the U.S. has indefinitely exempted the expansion project of Hungary's Paks-2 nuclear power plant, which is being implemented with Russian Rosatom's involvement, from sanctions. Officially, Washington explains these steps as a desire to help Hungary ensure energy security and diversification. This decision follows negotiations between Prime Minister Viktor Orban and U.S. President Donald Trump. Orban has previously publicly stated that he has secured a complete exemption for Hungary from sanctions on Russian fuel imports, but it is clarified that the easing is temporary and applicable for only one year. Hungary's EU partners have regarded the U.S. maneuver with caution, as Hungary remains the country in the bloc most dependent on Russian energy resources.
Nuclear Energy: UK Selects Site for First SMR
In the UK, a significant step in nuclear generation development has been announced. Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed this week that the government has chosen a site for the construction of the country's first Small Modular Reactor (SMR). The selected area will be Wilfa on the island of Anglesey in North Wales—previously home to a large decommissioned nuclear power plant. The project will utilize British Rolls-Royce SMR technology and aims to bolster energy security and achieve climate goals. The compact reactor in Wales is expected to provide electricity to up to 3 million homes, while its construction will create around 3,000 jobs. The first electricity from the new facility is expected to enter the grid in the early 2030s.
However, the UK government's choice has sparked diplomatic tension. The U.S. actively lobbied for an alternative project—a large traditional nuclear power plant by Westinghouse at the same site—and sharply criticized London's decision. The American ambassador called the reliance on SMR "disappointing," arguing that small reactors will not provide a rapid reduction in high electricity prices in the UK and will delay the commissioning of new capacities. The ambassador's statement contained unusually strong wording regarding an ally. Officials in London countered that the choice of site and the technology for building the nuclear plant is a sovereign right of the UK. The government emphasized that it is not abandoning its partnership with the U.S. in the nuclear sphere—meanwhile, efforts are underway to find another site for a possible large nuclear power facility where American developments can be utilized. Experts note that the disagreements surrounding the project in Wales reflect the UK's desire to develop its innovations in energy while balancing national interests and allied relations.
New Projects: Gas Field in Suriname Prepared for Development
Another promising source of gas has emerged in the global raw materials market. Suriname's state company Staatsolie has announced the recognition of commercial viability for a large gas discovery in offshore Block 52. This refers to the Sloanea field, discovered by the Malaysian company Petronas, which is the operator of the block. Petronas holds 80% of the project, while Staatsolie's subsidiary holds the remaining 20%. The exploration and production contract was signed in 2013, and to date, three wells have been drilled with positive results, confirming significant gas reserves.
The consortium is now moving into the development phase. According to Staatsolie's statement, the concept for developing Sloanea includes drilling underwater gas wells, installing underwater infrastructure, and deploying a floating LNG plant (FLNG) directly at the production site. Petronas is expected to present a detailed development plan for approval by regulatory authorities. If all goes well, an investment decision could be reached in the second half of 2026, with Suriname hoping to receive its first volumes of gas in 2030. The implementation of this project could turn the small country into a new liquefied gas exporter and attract foreign investment to the region's energy sector.
Renewable Energy: Generation Records and Emission Challenges
In the renewable energy segment, there continues to be steady growth, although climate indicators have yet to improve. According to new data from analytical centers, global electricity generation from solar power plants increased by 31% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Wind energy has also demonstrated significant growth. As a result, the total increase in new RE capacities in 2025 is forecasted to rise by about 10-11%—meaning the world will once again break records for expanding renewable generation. The growth of clean energy is already covering almost all additional electricity demand: according to the International Energy Agency, the increase in wind and solar energy production this year compensates for the lion's share of global energy consumption growth.
However, simultaneously, historical emissions of greenhouse gases are peaking. The International research project Global Carbon Project published a forecast indicating that in 2025, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption will rise another 1.1%, reaching a new record of around 38.1 billion tons of CO2. This indicates that even the record pace of renewable energy adoption is currently insufficient to reduce the carbon footprint of the global economy. Experts urge countries to double their efforts to transition to low-carbon technologies. According to IEA analysts, the rapid growth of cheap "green" electricity makes the global energy transition nearly inevitable, but achieving climate goals by 2030 requires more decisive political measures and investments.
