Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of December 13, 2025: Oil and Gas Dynamics, Global Energy, Sanctions, Exports, Renewable Energy, Coal, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Sector. Analytical Overview for Investors and Industry Participants.
Global Oil Market: Supply Glut and Cautious Demand Limit Price Growth
Global oil prices stabilized at relatively low levels by the end of the year: Brent is trading around $60 per barrel, while WTI hovers around $58. Recent signals regarding the possible easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have provided some momentum for prices; however, oil has dropped about 15% since the beginning of 2025 amid the threat of oversupply with moderate demand growth. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are adhering to a cautious production management strategy. At their December meeting, the alliance extended current quotas at least until the end of Q1 2026. OPEC+ continues to hold significant production capacity in reserve (around 3 million barrels per day) to prevent a price collapse. With Brent around $60, cartel representatives emphasize the priority of market stabilization over the immediate desire to increase exports, given the likelihood of weakening demand in the future.
Several key factors are influencing oil price dynamics:
- Demand. Global oil consumption is growing significantly slower than in previous years. Demand growth in 2025 is estimated at less than 1 million barrels per day (compared to approximately +2.5 million in 2023). Economic downturns, energy-saving measures following a period of high prices, and slowing industrial growth in China are limiting consumption growth.
- Supply. OPEC+ countries increased production in the first half of 2025 as previous restrictions were eased; however, the threat of market saturation is now curbing plans for further production increases. The decision to maintain production cuts at the start of 2026 indicates the coalition's readiness to prevent oversupply: agreement participants can quickly adjust exports if prices decline.
- Geopolitics. The war in Ukraine and sanctions against major oil-producing countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) continue to restrict supply and support prices. However, no new serious upheavals have occurred: on the contrary, signals for dialogue are emerging (such as U.S. and Turkey proposals for negotiations), somewhat reducing the "risk premium." Consequently, the oil market remains within a relatively narrow price range without sharp spikes.
Global Gas and LNG Market: Stability in Europe, Increasing Supply
The gas market situation at the end of 2025 is comparatively calm— a sharp contrast to the frenzy two years ago. The European Union enters winter without signs of gas shortages: EU underground storage is over 70% full, significantly above the average for December. Gas prices in Europe (TTF hub) are around €30 per MWh, which is significantly lower than the peaks of 2022. The falling volumes of Russian pipeline gas are almost entirely compensated for by record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from alternative sources— terminals are actively receiving fuel from the U.S., Qatar, Norway, and other countries.
Global LNG supply continues to grow due to the commissioning of new capacity. Large export terminals are coming online in the U.S. (for example, Golden Pass in the Gulf of Mexico), strengthening America's position as a leading supplier. Qatar plans to increase LNG output to 126 million tonnes per year by 2027 under the expansion of the North Field, having contracted significant volumes for buyers in Europe and Asia. New projects are also commencing in other regions (Australia, Africa), intensifying competition in the liquefied gas market.
At the same time, gas demand is growing at a moderate pace. In Asia, some importers are even redirecting excess purchased batches to the spot market due to a temporary decline in domestic consumption. Overall, the expansion of supply and moderate demand keep global gas prices at relatively low levels. However, the weather factor remains critical: in the event of abnormal cold snaps or supply disruptions this winter, there could be short-term price spikes. The baseline scenario anticipates price stability due to comfortable fuel inventories.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: The West's Tough Stance and Compromise Searches
The standoff between Russia and the West over energy resources continues, although by the end of the year, attempts at dialogue have emerged. G7 and EU countries maintain a stringent sanctions line: an embargo on Russian oil is in effect, as well as restrictions on refined product exports, a price cap has been introduced, and financial sanctions complicate trade in energy resources from Russia. Moreover, new restrictions are being discussed for early 2026— allies aim to close remaining loopholes and are willing to increase pressure if the armed conflict persists.
At the same time, the European Union is taking steps towards complete independence from Russian fuel. On December 10, EU ambassadors approved a plan to legally abandon energy carriers from Russia by the end of 2027— ceasing purchases of natural gas (including LNG), oil, and petroleum products. In Brussels, this step is referred to as the beginning of a new era aimed at permanently freeing European energy from dependence on Russian fuel. The break with Russia is being enshrined at the legislative level and encourages the development of alternatives—from increasing LNG imports to accelerating the deployment of renewable energy sources. Moscow criticized the EU strategy, pointing out that replacing cheap Russian gas with more expensive imports will lead to rising costs for Europe. Nevertheless, Brussels demonstrates a determination to pay this price for the geopolitical goal; several countries (such as Hungary) have already promised to legally contest the ban on Russian gas, yet the pan-European course remains unwavering.
According to media reports, the U.S. has proposed to allies a plan for the gradual reintegration of Russia into the world economy after a peaceful settlement— including lifting sanctions and resuming the export of Russian energy carriers to Europe. However, EU leadership views such initiatives with caution and rules out softening its position without real progress on the Ukrainian front. Against this backdrop, diplomatic signals are intensifying towards finding a compromise. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on December 12 that he is "close to an agreement" with Moscow and Kyiv regarding conflict resolution— marking the first hint at a possible peace agreement that could potentially ease some energy sanctions. Turkey also offers its mediation: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan confirmed during a meeting in Ashgabat his readiness to host talks between Russia and Ukraine in any format. While no specific agreements have yet been made, such statements inspire hope for future reductions in sanctions pressure affecting the industry.
Russia Redirects to Asian Markets
Faced with the loss of Western markets, Russia is increasing energy resource exports to Asia. China has become a key buyer: as early as late August, the first shipment of liquefied gas was sent from the new "Arctic LNG-2" plant to China. In the fall, supplies of Russian LNG to China increased at double-digit rates— Beijing is actively ramping up fuel purchases at a discount of 30-40%, ignoring Western sanctions pressure. The energy partnership between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, providing Russia with an alternative market while offering China cheap raw materials for its economy.
India also remains one of the largest importers of Russian hydrocarbons. Following the introduction of the European oil embargo, Indian refineries significantly increased purchases of Russian Urals oil and other grades at reduced prices. Russian leadership assured its partners of the readiness to provide India with stable volumes of oil and petroleum products. Cheap raw materials from Russia help meet India's rapidly growing demand and keep domestic fuel prices in check, although New Delhi is cautious to avoid critical dependence on a single supplier.
To consolidate the "eastern pivot," Russia is developing export infrastructure. There is a discussion about a new gas pipeline project, "Power of Siberia 2," through Mongolia to China, which could significantly increase gas supplies to Asia. Simultaneously, Russia is building its own tanker fleet for delivering oil to the markets of India, China, and Southeast Asia, which reduces dependence on Western shipping companies and insurers. These measures aim to make the redirection of energy flows to the East irreversible and reduce Russia's dependence on the European market. Concurrently, Russia is strengthening ties with Middle Eastern partners. During a meeting in Ashgabat, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian cooperation in the fields of gas and electricity. Work is simultaneously underway on strategic projects, such as the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, as well as developing the international transport corridor "North-South." This cooperation enhances Russia's integration into the energy chains of the East and South, partially compensating for the break in ties with Europe.
Kazakhstan: Transit Risks and New Routes
The military conflict in Ukraine is affecting energy resource export routes. In early December, a drone attack damaged the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk, through which Kazakhstan exports oil. Although shipments of Kazakh oil have not been fully halted, Astana has decided to expedite the diversification of routes. The Kazakh government has announced the redirection of some oil from the giant Kashagan field to China and is considering increasing supplies through Caspian ports to reduce reliance on the traditional route through Russia.
To strengthen energy security, Kazakhstan is also planning to build a new oil refinery (OR) with foreign capital participation. Expanding domestic capacities for petroleum product output will allow the country to reduce fuel imports and enhance the resilience of the oil and gas sector to external shocks.
Renewable Energy and Climate: Progress and Temporary Setbacks
Global energy transition continues to accelerate, although international climate agreements are stalling. At the UN COP30 conference (November 2025, Belém, Brazil), it was not possible to adopt a rigorous plan for phasing out fossil fuels— several major oil and gas exporters blocked the EU initiative for specific deadlines for gradual production cessation. The final agreement is of a compromise nature, shifting the focus to financing adaptation to climate change and general emissions reduction goals without clear timelines for phasing out oil, gas, and coal.
Despite the absence of new commitments, leading economies are actively increasing investments in "green" energy. The year 2025 was marked by record new solar and wind power projects being added in many countries. China, India, the USA, the European Union, and others are heavily investing in renewable energy, storage systems, and hydrogen technologies, striving to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons.
In the short term, there are also temporary setbacks from the decarbonization course. High natural gas prices in 2025 have compelled several countries to increase coal burning for electricity generation to successfully navigate the winter season— global demand for coal remains high. Experts consider this a temporary measure. As the share of RES grows and energy storage technologies improve, the consumption of coal and other fossil resources is expected to resume its decline. Thus, the long-term trend towards the transition to clean energy persists, albeit with certain delays along the way.
Forecasts: Beginning of 2026
Analysts expect that in Q1 2026, oil prices will be under moderate downward pressure due to high inventories and supply outpacing demand growth. In the absence of new shocks, the average Brent price could drop to the $55-60 per barrel range. At the same time, geopolitical factors could sharply change the price landscape: escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, imposition of new sanctions, as well as crises in key oil-producing regions (Middle East, Latin America) could trigger significant price fluctuations.
For the gas market, the determining factor will remain the weather. If winter in the Northern Hemisphere is mild and fuel inventories are sufficient, European gas prices are expected to remain low. However, several weeks of abnormal cold could quickly deplete storage facilities and prompt a price spike. Additionally, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG may intensify if economic growth in Asian countries exceeds expectations.
Participants in the fuel and energy sector in 2026 will need to adapt to new conditions. Diversification of supplies, enhancing energy efficiency, and implementing innovations (including the development of RES and carbon capture technologies) will be essential for business resilience. The departing year 2025 has vividly demonstrated the close interplay of economics, politics, and ecology in shaping prices for oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interplay is likely to strengthen: the global market will balance between oversupply and risks of shortage, while the global community and regulators will strive to reconcile energy security objectives with climate goals.
