Oil and Gas News and Energy on April 27, 2026: Crisis in the Persian Gulf, Rising Oil and Gas Prices, Impact on the Energy Sector and Global Energy Market
The global fuel and energy complex (TEC) has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty. The situation in the Persian Gulf, where disruptions in shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz persist, has once again come to the forefront, causing a sharp increase in insurance premiums and prices of oil and gas. Against this backdrop, the rising demand for electricity and interruptions in gas supply are intensifying competition for LNG supplies, as countries prepare for a shortage of diesel and jet fuel. Global oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, while gas prices have surged to record levels as spring begins. In these conditions, energy-intensive industries are reassessing their strategies, and investors are monitoring the liquidity of gas storage facilities and the logistics of supply. Simultaneously, the crisis is driving an increase in investments in renewable energy sources (RES): companies and governments are ramping up projects in solar and wind energy, as well as the development of battery storage systems to enhance the reliability of energy systems.
Oil Market: Pricing and Demand Dynamics
Oil prices continue to be influenced by geopolitical risks. Brent remains around $100/barrel, bolstered by an insurance premium amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, spot prices for crude oil for immediate delivery in Europe are rapidly rising — nearing $130–150. Analysts note that global oil reserves remain significant (approximately 7–8 billion barrels outside of Russia), but more than half of these reserves are beyond the reach of consuming countries. The potential for further price increases depends on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the response of OPEC+ producers.
- Drivers: Reductions in supply from the Persian Gulf and geopolitical tension are driving prices upwards.
- Demand: In Asia, a significant decline in demand is already being observed — many refineries have scaled back processing, and planes and ferries have suspended some services.
- Forecasts: Goldman Sachs maintains an average Brent forecast for 2026 at around $80–85, believing that the situation may normalize in the summer; however, the real surge in spot prices continues to exert inflationary pressure.
Persian Gulf and Logistics: Alternative Routes
Blockades and fears of escalation involving Iran continue to threaten key routes for oil and gas deliveries. Approximately 20–30% of the world's energy shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, daily vessel traffic has decreased by about fourfold compared to normal levels. Countries are rapidly redirecting supplies via alternative routes: oil is partially rerouted through the west coast of Saudi Arabia and UAE terminals, as well as via an Iraqi pipeline to Turkey. However, all of this is accompanied by rising freight rates and insurance premiums, with logistical constraints becoming a standalone source of profit for certain companies and posing risks for the majority.
Gas and LNG Market: Competition Between Europe and Asia
The natural gas and LNG segment is experiencing an acute phase of competition. A reduction in LNG supplies from the Gulf region following the closure of Hormuz has intensified the race for flexible cargoes. Europe and Asia are now competing for every tanker shipment: European buyers are eager to replenish storage ahead of winter, while Asian gas companies are actively seeking immediate supplies on the spot market.
- Reserves: Storage fillings in the EU by the end of March were noticeably below the five-year average, around 25%, raising risks of winter shortages.
- Prices: Prices at the European TTF hub and the Asian JKM have surged to multiple-level highs seen in 2022, nearly +50–70% in a month.
- Imports: The US has ramped up LNG exports to a historic maximum but is currently unable to offset all losses. New volumes from Qatar, Australia, and Africa will only provide partial relief.
Refining and Oil Products: Capacity Cuts
Oil refining in Asia is sharply declining. Refineries in China, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore have already reduced throughput — the total processing volume in the region fell by 10–15% in April compared to February. In response, a number of plants have halted Chinese fuel exports to maintain internal balance. Consequently, diesel and jet fuel production may decrease by 1–1.5 million barrels per day, exacerbating fuel shortages. In Europe, the situation with fuels appears more sustainable due to domestic production and stocks: the Dutch government has stated that, with full utilization of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel reserves, the EU could meet demand for over six months. However, prices for oil products have already reached record levels: freight and diesel premiums have risen sharply. For refiners, this translates into additional foreign exchange income, but for airlines and freight carriers, it means new financial burdens.
- Imports: The EU has increased purchases of North Sea and American oil to compensate for the shortfall of medium-sulfur grades.
- Reserves: European refineries are scaling back fuel exports, focusing on the domestic market; strategic reserves have been partially shifted for aviation use.
- Support Measures: Airlines and carriers are introducing fuel surcharges; governments are preparing subsidies and preferential loans for refinery upgrades.
Coal and Electricity: Priority on Reliability
Due to rising gas prices and supply threats, some countries are compelled to enhance coal generation to maintain energy balance. In the European Union and Asia, several regions have already announced programs to switch energy blocks to coal "until the crisis is over." This has temporarily increased demand and prices for coking and thermal coal — quotes for energy-focused brands rose by approximately 15–20% in March-April. However, analysts warn that the scale of this surge is less than in 2022, as coal capacities have fallen and strict limits apply in Asian contracts. Nevertheless, the heated price parity between gas and coal is prompting some consumers to shift to the cheaper fuel. At the same time, countries with advanced nuclear generation (France, China) are increasing its share, while owners of backup generation capacities (power plants) are receiving additional margins for being ready to connect quickly.
Renewable Energy: Accelerating the Transition
The energy crisis has strengthened the case for "clean" energy. According to IEA estimates, in 2025, global installations of solar and wind capacities grew at record rates. China accounted for over half of the world's new installations: nearly 370 GW of solar and 117 GW of wind capacity. The European Union added around 85 GW of green generation (mainly solar) — 10% more than the previous year. In India and developing regions, growth is even more intense — countries in the Middle East and Africa have doubled their newly installed capacities.
- Impulse: Rising oil, gas, and coal prices increase the attractiveness of RES for reducing dependency on imports. Households are installing solar panels, and industries are investing in wind projects.
- Investments: Global companies and funds are directing capital towards electric storage networks and infrastructure modernization. In the USA, a court has suspended restrictive norms on building new projects, which should accelerate the launch of wind and solar stations.
- International Initiatives: In late April, a conference titled "Fossil Fuel Phase-Out" is held in Colombia, where world leaders discuss speeding up the transition away from oil and gas.
Support Measures and Market Forecast
Responses to the energy shock are also emerging from governments. In the EU, financial aid packages have been announced for households and businesses: tax holidays, preferential loans for energy efficiency, and subsidies for airlines and transport companies. Plans are being drafted for the utilization of strategic fuel reserves and expanded LNG imports. Simultaneously, oil companies are reassessing investment programs: given current prices, accelerating production is advantageous, especially in regions with underloaded capacities (USA, Brazil). However, investors are now focusing more on infrastructure and flexibility. It’s crucial to monitor the filling of European gas storage facilities, the Brent/WTI spread, and refining margins for diesel and jet fuel. On a global level, the transition from cheap oil to costly stability is completing the formation of a new energy landscape, where the price of any energy resource is determined not only by demand but also by the ability to deliver that resource to the consumer.
As we approach Monday, April 27, the global energy sector finds itself in a challenging position: the conflict in the Persian Gulf has led to the largest disruptions in the history of oil and gas, which will soon reflect in the real sector of the economy and inflation. Demand for coal and electricity is rising in the short term, but the strategic trend is towards accelerated adoption of renewable sources and diversification of supplies. Investors and market participants must closely monitor not only the price dynamics of oil and gas but also logistical factors (tankers, pipelines), fuel stocks, and infrastructure readiness. In the coming weeks, key focuses will be the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's export plans, the filling of gas storage, and the cost of alternative energy resources. The ability of companies to manage these risks will determine their success during this period of high volatility in fuel and energy markets.
