Headline of the Day: Anthropic Prepares for a Historic Listing
The central event of the fall for the venture market remains Anthropic’s preparation for its initial public offering. The developer of the Claude model family confidentially submitted its S-1 filing with the SEC back on June 1. According to business media, the company is conducting meetings with institutional investors and may initiate its offering in September to early October. The book-running is handled by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, with Nasdaq as the target exchange.
Following its Series H round, the company's private valuation reached approximately $965 billion, while annual recurring revenue is estimated by analysts to be in the range of $47–80 billion—largely due to its dominance in the AI coding segment. For the venture industry, this offering will not merely be an exit: the multiple that the public market assigns to Anthropic will become a benchmark for the valuation of all private AI companies for years to come.
OpenAI Shifts Focus: Lab Race Pushed to 2027
Main competitor OpenAI filed its own S-1 a week later but is leaning toward postponing its listing until 2027. The reasons include market volatility and the management's intention to go public at a valuation no lower than $1 trillion. Over the past year, Anthropic has surpassed its rival in both revenue and private valuation, while OpenAI has undergone a series of top management changes. For investors, this signifies that the public “AI premium” will be calibrated based on Anthropic's debut, with OpenAI entering the market after several quarters of audited reporting.
Record Capital Concentration: Mid-Year Figures
Statistics from 2026 rewrite the entire history of the venture industry. Key indicators are as follows:
- Global venture investments reached $300 billion in the first quarter alone—an absolute record, comparable to 70% of all investments for 2025;
- Investments in startups in the U.S. and Canada for the first half of the year totaled $392 billion;
- Four out of five largest venture rounds in history closed in 2026: OpenAI ($122 billion), Anthropic ($30 billion), xAI ($20 billion), and Waymo ($16 billion);
- Capital is being distributed among an increasingly narrow circle of companies—growth is driven by massive rounds rather than an increase in the number of deals.
The market has acquired a pronounced "barbell" structure: elite startups attract mega-rounds, strong early teams receive funding quickly and at high valuations, while the mid-tier is facing a shortage of investor attention.
IPO Window Open: Autumn Sprint After Labor Day
The IPO market is experiencing its best period in several years: by the end of May, over $34 billion had been raised through IPOs—up 164% from the previous year. Following the successful debut of SpaceX and a strong year for biotech, investors are anticipating a busy autumn calendar. A noteworthy example from the defense sector is the stock of AI drone manufacturer Swarmer, which soared more than 500% on its first day of trading. For venture funds, the open exit window signifies an opportunity to lock in profits and return capital to partners—a critically important factor after several years of accumulated “overhang” from mature portfolio companies.
Defense Technologies: From Niche Bet to Systemic Sector
The defense sector has firmly established itself as the second most significant area of the venture market after AI. Key events in recent weeks include:
- Anduril Industries is negotiating a new round at a valuation of around $100 billion—more than three times higher than last year's level; the company's revenue doubled in 2025 to $2.2 billion.
- European leader Helsing raised $1.8 billion at an $18 billion valuation—investor demand significantly exceeded the available allocation.
- Global investments in defense and dual-use technologies are ahead of schedule and may exceed $18 billion by the end of the year.
The priority for 2026 shifts from invention to scaling production: investors are increasingly financing manufacturing capacities rather than solely software platforms.
Deals of the Week: From Generative 3D to Space Launches
The first days of September brought a series of illustrative rounds reflecting the industry’s capital diversification:
- Tripo AI, a San Francisco-based developer of generative AI 3D models, closed Series B and B+ rounds totaling approximately $446 million with participation from a broad pool of Asian and American funds;
- Félix from Miami announced a Series C funding of $200 million with a significant debt component—indicative of the growing role of hybrid capital structures;
- German space startup HyImpulse raised over €50 million as part of its Series A expansion with an order book exceeding €350 million;
- Spanish biotech iPremom received €15 million in seed investments for its early complication diagnostics platform for pregnancies;
- Tokyo-based PeopleX closed a Series A round at ¥5.45 billion, developing a sovereign AI platform for HR processes.
Beyond AI: Capital Searches for the "Physical World"
A notable trend in recent months has been the shift of some venture capital towards tangible assets: sports clubs, iconic real estate, consumer goods manufacturing, and energy for data centers. Investors are diversifying their bets, unwilling to rely solely on AI valuation dynamics. Sustained interest remains in climate technologies, longevity biotech, robotics, and fintech—segments where the next generation of unicorns with more predictable unit economics is emerging.
Russia and the CIS: Transformation Amid Global Boom
The Russian venture market is moving in opposition to the global trend: the volume of deals has decreased by about 40%, large late-stage rounds have nearly vanished, and seed investments have fallen by three times both in volume and number of deals. Investors have fully transitioned from financing "promising ideas" to stringent revenue requirements and understandable financial models. Projects in the areas of AI, corporate software, and fintech receive priority, but experts warn of a "demographic gap" in startups, which will be evident in 2027–2028 due to the depletion of the pipeline of companies ready for acquisition.
What This Means for Investors: Conclusions and Forecast
The venture market enters the fall of 2026 in a state of record activity, but also record risk concentration. Anthropic's debut will set a public benchmark for the entire AI economy: a successful offering could open the floodgates for dozens of listings in 2027, whereas a weak start might trigger a revaluation of the entire private AI portfolio. For funds, key guiding principles remain discipline in valuations, diversification beyond the AI core, attention to defense and infrastructure assets, and readiness to leverage the open IPO window for exits. The market rewards not loud ideas, but proven revenue, cost control, and clear positioning—and it is this logic that will dictate capital distribution in the final quarter of the year.
