The weekly price growth for fuel has almost quintupled compared to the average inflation rate, which stood at 0.23% for the same period. Since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices have risen by 5.6%, diesel by 4.8%, while average inflation has reached 3.53%.
The reasons behind the accelerating price increases at gas stations appear to lie in the reduced fuel supply due to unscheduled repairs at refineries. In an official statement issued by the Ministry of Energy on June 8, it was noted that fuel and energy sector enterprises have recently been facing an increase in aerial attacks by adversaries, leading to temporary difficulties in fuel supply across several southern regions.
Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak associated a slight decline in oil production in Russia with several refineries undergoing "unscheduled repairs." Meanwhile, crude oil exports from Russia have peaked since the beginning of the year. If the oil production has decreased while exports have risen, it stands to reason that domestic oil refining is being curtailed.
Official statistics on gasoline and diesel production, as well as their reserves in Russia, have been closed since 2024. However, the Ministry of Energy has repeatedly emphasized that there are sufficient fuel reserves to meet domestic market needs, and the industry is prepared to handle the seasonal increase in demand in a planned manner.
Almost all gasoline produced in Russia is slated for the domestic market, with exports banned since April this year. Overall, gasoline output is 10-15% ahead of domestic demand, which means there is a slight margin of safety even in the face of reduced production. Diesel exports, on the other hand, are still permitted, and production is nearly double the domestic consumption.
In the past two weeks, reports from certain regions have emerged regarding disruptions in gasoline supplies at gas stations, and at times, restrictions on sales have been implemented. The issues are primarily being reported in the European part of the country, particularly in its southern regions. By the second week of June, gasoline and diesel prices on the St. Petersburg exchange had surged to their highest levels since the start of the year.
Gasoline production in Russia exceeds domestic demand by 10-15 percentDoes this mean that there is a shortage of fuel being produced? Most likely not. As noted in a conversation with "RG" by Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and a member of the Expert Council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, there is enough fuel available; however, the logistics are becoming complicated and restructured due to attacks on refineries. Suppliers and transportation methods are changing, and routes are sometimes extended, which increases delivery times.
Managing Partner at NEFT Research, Sergey Frolov, shares a similar view, asserting that there is currently no significant physical fuel shortage in the European part of Russia. According to him, the dynamics of prices at gas stations primarily reflect the difficulties faced by independent gas station networks, which are increasingly struggling to source unallocated volumes at economically viable prices. Often, they are forced to purchase fuel at prices 1.5 times or more above current wholesale prices on the exchange, mainly involving Belarusian petroleum products.
Frolov suggests that the persistence and escalation of shortages this summer are quite possible and will depend directly on the same factors: the operation of refineries, logistical accessibility, and demand levels. Any irregular situation in the market and a reduction in supplies to the exchange and direct contracts will inevitably impact the costs of wholesale batches and, consequently, retail prices.
Moreover, it’s important to highlight that the Ministry of Energy has not announced fuel reserves by coincidence. These reserves are available with oil companies and large traders, while major and medium-sized gas station networks typically buy fuel in advance. Mass attacks on our refineries, which supply the domestic market, commenced in the latter half of May. According to Reuters, production was temporarily halted or reduced at seven enterprises. This means that a month has nearly passed since the initial attacks, and it is highly likely that the reduction in supply has not yet been fully felt by the domestic market, with its effects expected to manifest only by the end of June. However, a negative information backdrop has already had its impact.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, the primary risks of shortages lie in the southern regions, where production and logistical factors converge. In other regions, there is currently no risk of physical fuel shortages; however, general sentiment is contributing to rising fuel prices. Gusev also emphasizes the role of negative expectations. "We tend to fear shortages. If local restrictions happen somewhere, or if something is lacking, then the panic spreads immediately across the entire market," the expert points out.
Fuel reserves exist among oil companies, traders, and large and medium-sized gas station networksTereshkin believes that the terminology used by the Central Bank is applicable in this context, which not only provides calculations for inflation but also monitors observed and expected inflation. In the first case, it refers to consumers' perception of actual price increases, while in the second, it pertains to their expectations regarding price dynamics in the near future. Currently, both the observed and expected "fuel" inflation are at multi-year highs. This largely explains why Rosstat recorded such a significant price increase in its latest weekly report.
Energy expert Kirill Rodionov considers it essential for Rosstat and the Central Dispatch Unit of the Fuel and Energy Complex to resume the publication of data on gasoline and diesel production. This would help alleviate concerns for both wholesale and retail consumers, even though the actual releases of fuel into the market will still play a decisive role.
Source: RG.RU
