In March, Russia increased its diesel fuel exports from Baltic ports by 22% compared to February and by 34% compared to March 2025, reaching 1.78 million tons, according to an overview by the Center for Price Indices (CPI), reviewed by RBC. The majority—approximately 1.16 million tons—was shipped from the less-affected port of Primorsk. Exports through the port of Ust-Luga amounted to 400,000 tons, which is 80% higher than the previous month and a 100% increase year-over-year.
However, a series of incidents in the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga complicated the export of petroleum products starting March 25. This situation coincides with the ongoing ban on gasoline exports and may lead to a decrease in external supplies of petroleum products, including diesel, as indicated by the CPI.
In late March and early April, drones attacked the port of Ust-Luga multiple times. One of the attacks occurred overnight on March 31. According to the Governor of Leningrad Oblast, Alexander Drozdenko, three people were injured as a result of the attack, with damage reported to homes and facilities in the settlement of Molodtsovo.
Earlier, on the night of March 23, the port of Primorsk was subjected to a drone attack, resulting in storage tanks for petroleum products catching fire. The blaze was localized two days later on March 25, with the regional administration reporting that specialists did not detect any exceedances in allowable concentrations of hazardous substances.
Dmitry Peskov, press secretary for the President of Russia, noted that necessary measures are being taken to protect critical infrastructure, including the port of Ust-Luga in Leningrad Oblast. At the same time, he emphasized that protective efforts cannot completely eliminate the risk of attacks on these facilities.
Additionally, a complicated situation has emerged in the petroleum transportation market. On one hand, global freight rates are actively rising, and incidents in Baltic ports have increased risks for carriers, which should have led to a significant increase in freight costs, as observed in the CPI review. However, from March 23 to 29, freight rates virtually stagnated (ranging from -$1 to +$3 per ton) due to an overabundance of tonnage. Mid-month saw a substantial influx of available volumes of light petroleum products into the Baltic, while incidents created a cargo base shortage due to partial terminal suspensions. As a result, carriers have had to lower rates to secure additional cargo in the region.
Reasons for the Export Increase in March
Experts interviewed by RBC attributed the increase in diesel fuel shipments from Russia in March to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which removed a significant portion of Middle Eastern petroleum products from the market. Due to concerns over fuel shortages, consumers began to deplete their stockpiles, notes Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the Open Oil Market. For instance, commercial reserves in the port of Fujairah in the UAE (a key logistics hub for the entire Middle East) dropped by 36% from March 2 to 30, reaching 13.3 million barrels of petroleum products.
Until 2022, Russia was one of the largest suppliers of diesel fuel to the European market, and subsequently, Russian diesel began to be re-exported to the EU, transiting through Turkey. Most likely, transit supplies have intensified against the backdrop of the current crisis and risks of diesel shortages in several European countries, believes Tereshkin.
According to independent energy expert Kirill Rodionov, Egypt has also been involved in the re-export of Russian petroleum products to the European market since 2025. However, since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, direct exports of fuel from Russia have been on the rise. Importers, in light of risks of shortages and supply disruptions from Gulf countries, have ceased to fear secondary sanctions from the United States. "They understand that the primary task of the Trump administration is to curb the risks of rising prices amidst transit problems in the Middle East, therefore, Washington has relaxed its monitoring of compliance with sanctions against Russia," stated the expert.
As managing partner of Kasatkin Consulting Dmitry Kasatkin points out, the demand for petroleum products is currently at its highest since 2022. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a diesel shortage in Europe and South Asia, with wholesale prices in Frankfurt approaching record levels seen in May 2022. "The temporary easing of sanctions has additionally broadened the pool of buyers; the discount on Russian diesel relative to European benchmarks has narrowed to a minimum. However, the opportunities to realize this demand are limited: incidents at Baltic terminals have reduced export capacities at a most inconvenient time for the global market," said the expert.
The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on the sale of Russian oil and petroleum products loaded onto vessels by March 12. This license is valid until April 11 and does not apply to transactions related to Iran.
Redirecting Volumes
The volumes of diesel fuel lost due to incidents in Baltic ports, as noted by the CPI, may be replaced by supplies through the Big Port of St. Petersburg and the port of Vysotsk, which together have a total capacity exceeding 400,000 tons. However, given the accident at the Kirishi refinery, there is currently no need for a rapid replacement of export capacities in Primorsk.
If the infrastructure in Primorsk and Ust-Luga is not quickly restored to adequate capacities, diesel exports through Baltic ports in April may decrease by 30-50% compared to March, according to Kasatkin. Petroleum products are delivered to these ports via pipelines, and physically shifting volumes to other directions is not feasible, he explained.
Redirecting to Novorossiysk or Taman would require rail transport (with distances exceeding 2,000 km). This significantly increases costs and is limited by the capacity of Russian Railways. According to the expert's estimates, it is realistically possible to redistribute no more than 15-20% of the lost volumes. Some petroleum products may go to the domestic market, which could create pressure on wholesale diesel prices within the country.
Source: RBC
