Last week, Rosstat reported yet another acceleration in gasoline prices at gas stations. Over the week, prices increased by 0.2%, compared to a decrease of 0.1% the week prior. At first glance, this may not seem significant, but for a low-demand season, it represents a considerable increase. This rise is notably higher than that observed during the same period in 2025, while in 2024 and 2023, gasoline prices remained unchanged in the first half of February.
At the beginning of the year, the increase in prices was easily attributed: fuel excise taxes were raised by 5.1%, adding 60-80 kopecks to the price per liter. Additionally, VAT increased from 20% to 22%. This tax is imposed on every sale, and there are typically intermediaries between gas stations and oil refineries (refining plants).
Since the end of last year (December 22), the price of AI-92 has increased by 84 kopecks, AI-95 by 97 kopecks, AI-98 by 2 rubles and 39 kopecks, and diesel fuel (DF) by 1 ruble and 39 kopecks. The reference point is from the end of last year rather than the beginning of this year because gas stations tend to preemptively adjust for the increasing fiscal burden. A sharp jump in prices after the New Year holidays could attract the attention of regulators, so the rise appears more gradual. In past years, price increases related to tax changes typically leveled off by February, as other factors such as demand, exports, refinery maintenance, and so forth came into play. While demand has certainly increased compared to early January, consumption of gasoline is only beginning to rise, and we are still far from the spring peak.
Starting February 1, the government permitted the export of gasoline for refineries, which immediately impacted exchange trading volumes, leading to a decrease. Exchange prices, in this context, have risen but not excessively. They remain quite distant from peak levels seen last autumn and are comparable to June 2025 levels. Additionally, the time elapsed since lifting the export ban on gasoline for refineries has been too short to influence retail prices significantly. Should the pricing situation worsen, the government can quickly reinstate the export ban on gasoline for refineries, which is one of their primary sources of income.
The entire market for oil product provision has fully transitioned to manual regulation, as stated by Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, in an interview with "Rossiskaya Gazeta." All levers of control are concentrated in the hands of the government, which responds situationally. This approach allows for the immediate saturation of the motor fuel market and the flexibility to adjust export and domestic supply volumes. However, it also has a significant downside: concerns about the current profitability of both oil extraction and refining have taken a back seat.
The government could swiftly restore a complete ban on gasoline exports. Additionally, two other factors currently influencing price increases in both wholesale and retail markets are the tumultuous news environment and the poor economic health of the gas stations, many of which operated at a loss for a substantial part of last year. They now have the opportunity to recuperate losses and "build up some fat" for the next challenging period.
On the news front, the situation is quite unsettled. Oil companies are anticipating a negative damping payment for January (to be disbursed in February). The damping payment is budget compensation paid to oil companies for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices lower than those for exports. The size of these payments is calculated based on the difference between the export value of fuel and the indicative domestic price set by legislation. A negative damping payment occurs when the export value of fuel drops below the indicative prices. This means that nominally, it is deemed more profitable to supply gasoline to the domestic market than to export it, requiring oil companies to pay the budget the difference between the export and indicative prices.
This exact situation unfolded in January. In 2024 and 2025, damping payments constituted a significant portion of the revenues for major oil companies. Now, not only will they not receive these payments, but they will also have to pay into the budget themselves.
According to Stankevich, the concept of collecting additional funds through the damping mechanism from companies amidst extremely low prices for Russian oil is economically shortsighted. This is an attempt to resolve the issue of reducing the federal budget deficit through administrative methods. However, the oil industry cannot sustain losses for an extended period, as energy security concerns are an absolute priority.
As Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, points out, much will depend on the negotiations between companies and regulators. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak previously instructed the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Energy to propose adjustments to the damping mechanism while considering the views of fuel producers. A consensus solution is likely to be reached in the coming weeks.
The need for urgency is evident. Fuel demand has already begun to rise, and this trend will likely accelerate in March and April. Therefore, there are no grounds for expecting stagnation, let alone a decline in prices at gas stations. Tereshkin believes the price increase will fit within the "inflation minus" formula, influenced by the general acceleration of price growth in the economy.
Stankevich believes much will depend on the path chosen by the government. The choice is not easy; it involves either lowering budget expectations from the oil sector or proposing a mechanism for compensating losses through increased exchange, wholesale, and retail gasoline and DF prices.
Sergey Frolov, managing partner at NEFT Research, believes that price growth will accelerate. However, this will not be primarily related to the size and direction of damping payments. Instead, the root causes of price increases will lie in supply and demand balance.
Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" association and member of the Expert Council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, Dmitry Gusev, expressed a unique perspective. He asserts that the government possesses the ability to regulate the market through administrative measures. However, the market requires more stability, currently plagued by a nervous atmosphere. Consumers are unaware of fuel production levels and the status of fuel reserves, as this data is closed. Yet exchange quotes are open, and thus any upward movement in these prices tends to incite panic. A logical resolution, the expert suggests, would be to also close the exchange data.
Source: RG.RU
