An Expert Has Predicted Gasoline Prices in the Near Future

MOSCOW, Nov 4 - PRIME. Despite the moratorium on nullifying payments under the fuel damper mechanism, oil companies are expected to maintain the exchange prices for AI-92 gasoline within the range of 70,000 rubles per ton in the near term, said Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of the oil products marketplace "Open Oil Market" (a Skolkovo resident), in an interview with RIA Novosti.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has introduced a moratorium on nullifying payments for the fuel damper from October 2025 to May 2026. The corresponding decree cancels one of the subsidy calculation rules, under which the damper is paid only if the average monthly price of AI-92 gasoline and diesel does not diverge from the indicative prices by more than 10% and 20% respectively.
"The exchange prices are no longer taken into account in the subsidy calculation rules; however, oil companies will likely adhere to 'reasonable limits', resulting in AI-92 prices remaining below the threshold of 70,000 rubles per ton," he commented on the trend of declining exchange quotes in October. The price of AI-92 gasoline on the St. Petersburg exchange fell by 11.4% in October, closing at 65,232 rubles per ton on Saturday. Nevertheless, the price of this grade has set records sixteen times this year.

The price of AI-92 gasoline on the St. Petersburg exchange fell by 11.4% in October, closing at 65,232 rubles per ton on Saturday. Nevertheless, the price of this grade has set records sixteen times this year.

Tereshkin believes that the current drop is the result of an informal agreement between regulators and companies to keep prices close to the previous damper threshold (66,495 rubles per ton).
The damper mechanism was created to control domestic fuel prices. If the export price of gasoline and diesel is higher than the conditional domestic (indicative) price, the state compensates companies for part of this difference, so they do not raise prices in Russia. Conversely, if Russian prices exceed export prices, oil companies share part of their profits from domestic sales with the state. The damper is paid to oil companies only if the export price of fuel exceeds the domestic one. According to the current Tax Code, if the average exchange price in Russia exceeds the cutoff by 10% for gasoline and 20% for diesel fuel, payments are nullified.

However, authorities plan to increase the allowable deviation of wholesale fuel prices from indicative prices by 10 percentage points - to 20% for gasoline and 30% for diesel fuel - retroactively from September 1. According to the Deputy Head of the Ministry of Finance, Alexey Sazanov, the corresponding amendments to the Tax Code have already been submitted to the State Duma.

Source: PRIME