Reports of gasoline shortages and long lines at gas stations have emerged from parts of southern and central regions of the European part of Russia, including Moscow and the surrounding area, as well as certain southern districts of Siberia and the Far East.
During a meeting held by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on August 14, it was noted that the situation in the fuel market remains tense, although major oil companies are taking all necessary measures to increase supplies to the most vulnerable regions of the Russian Federation. It was also emphasized that agricultural enterprises are adequately supplied with fuel, and the harvest campaign is proceeding as planned.
Following the meeting, Novak instructed relevant agencies and oil-producing companies to take additional measures to ensure fuel supplies in regions currently experiencing tense situations. Additionally, they were tasked with monitoring fuel prices for agricultural producers, as well as prices at gas stations.Agricultural machinery primarily operates on diesel fuel (DF). Its supply to the market stabilized in the second half of July, and no disruptions are currently being recorded. Historically, diesel fuel has been produced in significantly larger quantities in Russia than gasoline. According to the latest official data, in 2024, 41.1 million tons of gasoline were produced, compared to 81.6 million tons of diesel. This is due to the fact that previously, a large volume of diesel (almost half) was exported to Europe, while only a small amount of gasoline (10-15% of total production) was sent abroad.
Therefore, the shutdowns of oil refineries (OR) due to damage sustained from drone strikes have critically impacted the gasoline supply. It is not coincidental that its export has been completely banned since April, and nearly all produced volumes are directed to the domestic market (excluding batches sent under intergovernmental agreements). However, this is clearly insufficient. Although, perhaps, the issue extends beyond just a physical shortage.
One of the main factors affecting the reliability of fuel supplies is logistics. Due to unscheduled repairs at ORs, many gas stations were forced to abruptly change suppliers, leading to disruptions and delays in shipments. The infrastructure is not elastic – it cannot exceed the throughput capacity of, for example, rail transport (RT).
Furthermore, as noted in a conversation with "RG" by Open Oil Market CEO Sergey Tereshkin, even prior to the shutdowns of ORs for unscheduled repairs, the ban on gasoline exports had effectively become permanent.
This means that even before the current year, the balance of supply and demand for gasoline in the domestic market was close to zero. The gradual, albeit limited, renewal of the vehicle fleet could have led to an increase in demand for AI-95 gasoline after 2022, while sanctions on equipment supplies for Russian ORs restrained the expansion of refining capacities.
According to Sergey Frolov, managing partner at NEFT Research, it is currently not accurate to speak of a nationwide fuel crisis; rather, the issue pertains to localized shortages in specific regions. The primary reason is scheduled and unscheduled repairs at Russian ORs. Government measures are effective but cannot fully eliminate the main cause of the shortage of petroleum products – the reduction in production.
To prevent fuel shortages, the government permitted imports starting in July. Belarus became the main supplier. According to Reuters, in July, Russia received 212,000 tons of gasoline and 162,000 tons of diesel from there. However, the capacities of the two Belarusian ORs are also not limitless. Factoring in domestic consumption, export to Russia exceeding 200,000 tons of gasoline per month is nearing their maximum capabilities. Additionally, there is again the factor of logistics – fuel is transported to Russia via rail. Importing gasoline by sea is very expensive and slow. The delivery of the first batch of gasoline from India to Russia took 48 days.
Tereshkin believes that the market is unlikely to see record price growth rates like those in June during September and October, as supply chain participants gradually adapt to the risks of shortages. However, he asserts that the absolute level of prices will still exceed pre-crisis levels.
Regarding fuel availability at gas stations, additional volumes of fuel below Euro-5 standard, which are permitted for sale since August 13, should reach retail by the end of August. This should alleviate market tension. However, Frolov emphasizes that even the production of lower environmental class gasoline cannot fully compensate for the lost volumes and resolve the logistical issues of fuel delivery to specific regions.
At the same time, Tereshkin notes that, unfortunately, it is currently impossible to rule out the likelihood of new technological downtimes at ORs. In addition to capacity loss due to emergencies, this includes scheduled repairs, which will affect fuel availability.
According to Dmitry Gusev, deputy chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and a member of the Expert Council for the "Gas Station of Russia" competition, there is a general understanding that the market needs to be reformatted. The transition to direct contracts between suppliers and buyers has already begun, as has the reduction of the number of intermediaries – traders. The situation should normalize when the parameters of how the fuel market should exist in our country become completely clear. The expert predicts this will likely occur by October.
In Frolov's view, only the resumption of operations at ORs, sufficient to meet current demand, can fully stabilize the situation.
Source: RG.RU
